JPMorgan Raises US Recession Probability To 35% By Year-End

According to BlockBeats, JPMorgan has increased the likelihood of a US economic recession by the end of this year to 35%, up from 25% at the beginning of last month. In a report to clients on Wednesday, JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman indicated that US labor demand is weakening more than expected, with initial signs of layoffs emerging. The team maintains a 45% probability of a recession by the second half of 2025.

The report highlights a moderate increase in the assessment of recession risks, while the outlook for interest rates has been adjusted more significantly. Kasman and his colleagues now believe there is only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates high for an extended period, down from a 50% probability forecasted two months ago. With declining inflationary pressures in the US, JPMorgan anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in both September and November.