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U.S. President Donald Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran after Tehran reiterated its own calls for reparations, dimming hopes of a quick deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices surging again, Bloomberg reported. On social media, Trump said he is demanding compensation from Iran for people killed and wounded by its roadside bombs and conflicts, and for families of protesters he said Iran has killed over the past 50 years. He said the demands, later expanded to cover damages in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza, would be placed firmly into all future negotiations—terms Iran is almost certain to reject. The hardening on both sides makes any immediate Hormuz pact unlikely, even after Trump and other US officials had recently suggested a deal was nearing.
Brent crude rose about 5% Monday to end near $88 a barrel, and European diesel futures jumped more than 10% as refineries in Saudi Arabia, Libya and Russia also came under attack, according to Bloomberg. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the strait's reopening is contingent on the US ceasing what he called illegal actions, lifting the siege and paying compensation. Trump insisted compensation for Iran was never discussed, though the 14-point June memorandum details a planned $300 billion fund for Iran's postwar rehabilitation. Trump said Monday that Hormuz is "open now" and controlled by the US, and signaled he would let economic pressure build rather than launch fresh strikes. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Trump got the US into an illegal war and has no way out. Over the weekend Iran named hard-liner Mohsen Rezaee, an advocate of full Iranian control over the waterway, to head its Supreme National Security Council.

Bitcoin slipped to near $64,000 on Tuesday — down over 1% on the day but marginally positive on the week — after a fourth consecutive failed attempt to hold above $65,000, reaching a 24-hour high just above $65,300 before sliding through the Asian afternoon. Ether was the weakest major, down over 2% to $1,878. XRP fell almost 2% to $1.01 and is down almost 6% on the week — the worst major by a significant margin. Solana eased under 1% to $76 but leads the week at +3%. BNB slipped to $600, holding a 2% weekly gain. Three majors bucked the trend: HYPE rose almost 2% to $55, Tron gained slightly to 33 cents, and Dogecoin was marginally higher at 7 cents. Brent crude held at $87.73 after jumping 5% on Monday when Trump made fresh demands on Iran and dimmed hopes of a Hormuz deal. Gold rose for a third consecutive session above $4,400. US 10-year Treasury yields rose 6 basis points on Monday to 4.71%. US CPI data arrives Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET — the most direct scheduled catalyst for whether the oil-driven inflation worry that is suppressing risk assets eases or intensifies.
Four Failed $65,000 Tests — FxPro's Kuptsikevich Reads Shorts Building, Not Profit-Taking
FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich's interpretation of the four-day $65,000 test is the most analytically useful framing of Bitcoin's current price behavior. The standard interpretation of repeated tests of a level without a breakout is that sellers are absorbing buying attempts — profit-taking by existing holders who purchased at lower prices. Kuptsikevich's reading is different and more constructive: the absence of selling into the $65,000 level — rather than sellers actively capping the price — suggests that what is being built above $65,000 is short positions, not supply from holders exiting.
The distinction matters for what happens next. If $65,000 is a level where profit-takers are selling, a breakout requires those sellers to exhaust their positions — a gradual absorption process. If $65,000 is a level where short sellers are accumulating positions, a breakout above it triggers short-covering — a rapid, self-reinforcing move as shorts are forced to buy to close positions. Kuptsikevich's "build-up of short positions well above this level" framing implies that a decisive break above $65,000 would be amplified by forced short covering rather than merely testing the next layer of seller supply.
The $70,000 Target — 200-Day Moving Average and the March-April Range
Kuptsikevich identified $70,000 as the next area to watch, with the 200-day moving average sitting nearby and clearing it representing a move above the range where buyers and sellers contested price through March and April. The $70,000 level has multiple simultaneous technical and analytical significances: it is a major round number psychological resistance, it aligns with the pre-correction consolidation zone from March-April 2026, it sits above the CryptoQuant STH realized price at $67,523 and the Bitfinex STH cost basis at $68,500, and it is the lower bound of the Deribit bull call spread cluster where $68,000 and $70,000 calls are currently dominating volume.
Kuptsikevich said clearing $70,000 would "shift sentiment meaningfully" — the specific threshold that converts the current fear-zone sentiment reading of 30 into something more constructive. The crypto sentiment index sitting at 30 — in the fear zone since mid-July with occasional dips toward extreme fear — is the psychological constraint that has prevented the $1.2 billion in whale accumulation and $865 million in five-session ETF inflows from translating into sustained price appreciation. A move through $70,000 and the 200-day MA would be the technical confirmation event that converts tactical buyers into convicted buyers — precisely the threshold Nexo's Kalchev identified when she said a decisive close above $65,000 was needed for recovery, except now the goalposts have been raised by four days of $65,000 failure to $70,000 as the sentiment-shifting level.
Oil at $87.73 — Trump's Iran Demands Reverse Monday's Oman Deal Optimism
Brent crude jumping 5% on Monday to $87.73 — reversing the Iran-Oman deal optimism that had lifted Bitcoin to $65,209 on Monday morning — is the most direct expression of the macro chain's resilience. Trump making fresh demands on Iran and dimming hopes of a Hormuz deal activated the same oil-up-yields-up-dollar-up-BTC-down chain that Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer identified as the "danger zone" mechanism. The 10-year yield rising 6 basis points on Monday to 4.71% — well above Timmer's 4.5% danger threshold — is the bond market's immediate translation of higher oil into higher inflation expectations and higher rate-hike probability.
For Wednesday's CPI print arriving at 8:30 a.m. ET, Brent at $87.73 is the most important input variable. Higher oil feeds directly into the CPI's energy component — fuel prices already running 15.7% above year-ago levels — and a CPI print that comes in above expectations on energy-driven inflation would validate the hawkish scenario where the September rate hike probability above 50% is maintained or increases. A below-expectations CPI print — if the June energy price decline relative to last year's elevated levels provides a base effect benefit — could reduce September hike odds despite current oil levels and provide Bitcoin with the macro relief that the Iran-Oman deal was supposed to deliver before Trump's Monday demands reversed that narrative.
ETF Flows — $865 Million Over Five Sessions, $91 Million Provisional Monday Outflow
The five-session $865 million inflow through August 7 — which included the $754 million week that was the best since April — reversed to a provisional $91 million outflow on Monday as the Iran deal reversal and oil jump reduced risk appetite. The $91 million outflow on a single session after $865 million over five sessions is a 10.5% single-day reversal of the week's institutional accumulation — significant in percentage terms but not catastrophic in absolute terms. It confirms that the ETF bid that has been building is not unconditional — it is sensitive to the same macro headwinds that capped Bitcoin at $65,000 four consecutive days.
The $91 million outflow's cause — Trump's fresh Iran demands and 5% oil jump rather than any crypto-specific negative development — means the ETF bid can return as quickly as the macro deteriorated if Wednesday's CPI provides a dovish surprise or Iran deal negotiations produce a credible Oman-mediated framework. Institutional allocators using ETFs as their Bitcoin exposure vehicle are managing macro risk, not changing their Bitcoin conviction.
The CPI Wednesday Setup — The Week's Defining Catalyst
Wednesday's US CPI print is the scheduled catalyst that will determine whether Bitcoin's fourth $65,000 failure is followed by a fifth or by the breakout that forces Kuptsikevich's short-covering dynamic. The specific inputs: Brent crude at $87.73 with a 5% Monday jump adding oil cost pressure, the base effect from June 2025's elevated energy prices potentially providing a favorable year-over-year comparison, core CPI excluding food and energy as the Fed's preferred inflation signal, and the overall headline number that will directly impact September rate hike probability from its current elevated level.
A CPI below 3.5% — particularly if core CPI shows deceleration — would reduce September hike odds, soften the 10-year yield from 4.71%, weaken the dollar, and provide Bitcoin with the macro permission to attempt a fifth $65,000 test with the short-covering fuel that Kuptsikevich identified. A CPI above 4.0% on energy-driven headline inflation would validate the hawks, send yields above 4.75%, and push Bitcoin back toward the 200-week SMA at $62,873.

Brent crude futures widened losses to 1% and were quoted at $86.821 per barrel. According to Odaily, WTI crude futures fell 0.96% to $81.338 per barrel.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett said on X that U.S. Senate procedural voting on the CLARITY Act has been delayed until September after the chamber failed to complete an earlier vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed a procedural motion, and a new vote window could come in mid-September, according to Odaily. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a new rule proposal covering crypto asset issuance activities.
Market participants said regulators may still advance digital asset market structure reforms through administrative rulemaking even if the CLARITY Act is delayed. Analysts said U.S. crypto regulation over the next few months may move on two tracks, with Congress continuing to push market structure legislation while the SEC works on rules for token issuance, trading platforms and digital asset service providers.

South Korea's Financial Intelligence Unit announced that amendments to the enforcement decree of the Specified Financial Information Act have been approved by the State Council. According to PANews, the changes strengthen oversight of the crypto industry and set new requirements for exchanges.
The revised rules will subject major shareholders of exchanges to stricter review and require exchange debt ratios to remain below 200%. The Travel Rule will also expand to cover all transfers, removing the current 1 million won threshold. Transactions involving overseas exchanges and personal wallets will be handled under differentiated controls based on risk level.
The new rules also require exchanges to employ specialists, maintain necessary equipment, and establish internal control systems. Existing exchanges will receive a one-year grace period. Some provisions will take effect on August 20, while Travel Rule-related measures will be implemented six months later.

Intel is seeking to raise about $20 billion in a share sale, a third more than it targeted when it announced the deal Monday morning, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The chipmaker is poised to price the offering at around $95 a share or above, which would represent a 6.5% discount to Friday's close, the people said. The deal could grow well beyond $20 billion if an over-allotment option is exercised, and it has drawn more than $100 billion in demand, they added. Deliberations are ongoing and details including size and pricing could still change. A spokesperson for Intel declined to comment, while JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are working on the offering, which is said to be multiple times oversubscribed.
Intel's shares were little changed in after-hours trading after falling 4.1% on Monday, but remain up roughly 164% this year after CEO Lip-Bu Tan made cleaning up the company's finances a priority, according to Bloomberg. That effort has included attracting outside investments from the US government and even chip rivals such as Nvidia. The year's biggest US equity offerings have been dominated by companies riding the AI spending boom: Alphabet is raising as much as $85 billion through equity offerings, and Oracle's plans include a $20 billion at-the-market share sale program.

According to Sina Finance, sources said fast-fashion retailer Shein Global Holdings plans to begin investor bookbuilding for its Hong Kong initial public offering as soon as next week, targeting a valuation of $35 billion. The company is also planning to raise as much as $2.8 billion, and sources said it started gauging investor demand last week.
People familiar with the matter said the timing of the listing and the fundraising size could still change, and the company had originally planned to complete the listing process by the end of this month. One source said Shein’s valuation “will not be below $30 billion,” adding that the company is working to reach its $35 billion target valuation.

According to Jin10, market sources said oil tanker tracking data showed that in the four weeks through August 9, Russia's crude exports fell to 3.71 million barrels per day, the lowest level since late May, indicating that the earlier export surge caused by Ukraine's sustained attacks on Russian refineries is fading.

European shares closed at a record high, with trading broadly subdued. According to Sina Finance, energy stocks rose with oil prices, while rate-sensitive utilities and real estate shares fell, and the benchmark STOXX Europe 600 finished little changed.
Technology stocks also performed well, helped by gains in some semiconductor-related shares, while media stocks lagged. Brent crude climbed above $86 a barrel because an agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz had still not been reached, putting pressure on government bonds and rate-sensitive sectors.
Imperial Brands fell 4.6% after Bloomberg reported that the cigarette maker was preparing to cut thousands of jobs in major markets as part of a broad cost-cutting plan. According to Sina Finance, European benchmark equities have returned to record highs as the second-quarter earnings season has beaten expectations, and Bloomberg industry research showed that profits for MSCI Europe index constituents rose 17% year on year, the biggest increase since late 2022.
Major companies due to report this week include A.P. Moller-Maersk, E.On SE and ABN Amro. Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg, said corporate earnings have outperformed most expectations given geopolitical turmoil, tariff uncertainty and initially high market consensus, and added that macro data, especially bonds' reaction to U.S. inflation data, should matter more this week than broad earnings beats. U.S. inflation data is due on Wednesday, and a Bloomberg survey of analysts showed that euro-area growth is expected to accelerate after the economy displayed surprising resilience to the shock from the Iran war.

Strategy CEO Phong Le said Bitcoin fell 4% in the week the company sold $2 million worth of Bitcoin, then dropped 11% the following week. According to Odaily, he said Bitcoin rose 6% in the week Strategy sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin a month later. He added that Strategy’s Bitcoin sales did not affect the market.

South Korea's Supreme Court has proposed an amendment to its Civil Execution Rules to establish a standardized procedure allowing creditors to freeze, identify, and liquidate debtors' virtual assets. According to Odaily, courts could require exchanges to disclose the type and amount of crypto assets held by a debtor within seven days of receiving an order and freeze the corresponding assets. The proposal’s public comment period ends on August 11, and it is expected to take effect on October 1. After assets are identified and frozen, the court could assign them to creditors or order liquidation, with virtual asset service providers carrying out the sale.

According to Jin10, CME Group said trading volume in its 1-ounce gold futures has exceeded $200 million during weekends since the contract launched on July 24.

Meta will face a jury-selection hearing on August 12 in federal court in Oakland, California, in a lawsuit brought by California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey that accuses its social media platforms of addictive design that harmed minors, according to Jiemian News. The states are seeking up to $1.4 trillion in damages.
The complaint says Meta knew Facebook and Instagram’s algorithms could harm teenagers but hid internal research from the public and regulators. It also alleges Meta failed to enforce age verification, allowed children under 13 to use the platforms without parental consent, and unlawfully collected minors’ personal data in violation of the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act.
The filing says Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg is among the key witnesses the prosecution plans to call. Meta said the damages claim has no evidentiary support and called the calculation legally and factually baseless. Jiemian News also reported that Meta was ordered last week by a New Mexico state court to pay an additional $567 million and change teen-facing features on its platforms, after an earlier $375 million civil penalty in the same case, bringing the total above $900 million.

BlackRock Canada launched two exchange-traded funds on Monday: the iShares Equity + Bitcoin ETF Portfolio (IBQT) and the iShares Core MSCI All-International Equity Index ETF (XINT). According to Odaily, both funds began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
IBQT allocates 97% of its assets to stocks in Canada, the U.S., international markets and emerging markets, with 3% allocated to Bitcoin. It gains Bitcoin exposure through BlackRock's Canadian iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and mainly holds other iShares ETFs rather than individual stocks. XINT tracks the MSCI ACWI ex North America IMI Index and covers more than 5,000 companies across more than 40 developed and emerging markets outside Canada and the U.S.
BlackRock Asset Management Canada manages both funds through the RBC iShares alliance.

Ethereum staking has reached a record high, with about 41.7 million ETH now staked, equal to roughly one-third of total supply. According to ChainCatcher, ETH staking has continued to rise even as the token has fallen from about $3,400 in January to around $1,900.
Market analysis cited in the article said staking rewards continue to accrue, allowing validators to earn returns and redeploy part of those rewards back into staking, which has helped expand the amount of staked ETH further. The article said the higher staking ratio indicates growing confidence among long-term holders and institutions in Ethereum's network security and future ecosystem development, while also noting that a larger amount of ETH locked in staking could affect market liquidity.

Coinsbuy said all affected users have been fully compensated from the platform's own reserves after a previous attack. According to Foresight News, the platform has resumed normal operations and all services are now available.
Coinsbuy also offered a $100,000 reward for information on the attacker and said it will provide additional rewards for help recovering stolen funds. According to Foresight News, on-chain analyst Specter previously reported that Coinsbuy-linked wallets were hacked on Ethereum and TRON, with losses exceeding $7.9 million, and that the attacker later laundered the funds into XMR through exchanges.

Keel Infrastructure Corp., formerly Bitfarms, said in its second-quarter earnings report that it has shut down all U.S. Bitcoin mining operations and is preparing to convert the sites into AI and high-performance computing data centers. According to Odaily, the company sold 1,085 BTC between April 1 and August 7 for $75 million and still holds 1,861 BTC. Keel CEO said power supply is the limiting factor, while three priority sites are close to receiving all permits and several potential tenants are in talks. The company also said it has $819 million in liquid assets and unused 2027 power capacity.

Macquarie analysts said South Korea's benchmark Kospi is expected to rebound in the near term, led by chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. According to Odaily, the analysts said July's extreme volatility was driven mainly by the two stocks, which accounted for 71% of the market's total capitalization loss.
They said volatility is easing as foreign and institutional outflows stabilize, concentrated funds are reallocated, and margin financing and securities lending balances remain at reasonable levels. Macquarie expects earnings revisions to push the Kospi higher, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix overcoming concerns about demand peaking and competition. The firm kept its Kospi target at 8,000 points and said the two companies' rapid earnings growth should translate into substantial shareholder returns.

Binance Blog published a new article, revealing insights into quantum computing and its potential implications for crypto security. The article explains that quantum computers cannot break today’s major blockchain networks, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the industry is already preparing for a future transition to post-quantum cryptography. According to Binance Chief Security Officer Jimmy Su, the most immediate risks to crypto users are still phishing, malware, social engineering, compromised credentials, and poor wallet security, rather than quantum computers. The piece addresses five common questions about quantum computing and focuses on why the issue matters now even though it is not an urgent threat today. It also notes that recent research has changed estimates of how much computing power future quantum computers may need to break widely used cryptographic algorithms, suggesting the ecosystem may have less time than previously expected to prepare. In March 2026, researchers at Google Quantum AI published a paper suggesting that future quantum computers may require around 20 times fewer computing resources to break the encryption protecting Bitcoin and Ethereum than previously estimated, though the improvement came from more efficient quantum algorithms rather than a jump in hardware capability.
For most crypto users, Binance says there is no need to change security habits today. The article says users should continue protecting recovery phrases and private keys, using trusted wallet software, keeping software updated, and avoiding unnecessary address reuse where applicable. Jimmy Su also warns users not to rush into products that claim to be “quantum-proof,” saying that trying to defend against a future risk too early could introduce more security problems in the present. The article adds that the hardest part of becoming quantum-safe is not creating post-quantum cryptographic algorithms, since such algorithms already exist, but migrating the entire crypto ecosystem safely. That transition would require coordination among developers, miners, node operators, exchanges, custodians, wallet providers, and users, while also raising questions about dormant or potentially lost wallets and how long users should have to migrate. Binance says it is monitoring quantum developments, evaluating post-quantum security standards, and preparing its infrastructure for a broader industry transition, while emphasizing that no single company can solve the challenge alone. The article concludes that quantum computing may reshape digital security in the future, but current focus should remain on strong security practices and gradual preparation across the industry.

Gold advanced to a two-month high above $4,400 an ounce ahead of a key US inflation report that could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's appetite for a rate hike, Bloomberg reported. Bullion rose as much as 1% on Tuesday after adding 3.6% over the previous two sessions, with technical buying spurred by the metal's break above its 100-day moving average on Monday. The move added to signs of recovery amid dip-buying in recent weeks and stronger inflows into gold-backed ETFs in China. Vantage Markets analyst Hebe Chen said the pieces around gold are finally moving into place, giving the recovery the shape of an early-stage shift into a new cycle, and that its ability to rise alongside higher oil prices and a stronger dollar suggests traders are pricing it through a different lens.
Attention now turns to Wednesday's US inflation data, with the consumer price index seen rising 0.1% in July after a 0.4% decline the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey. After Friday's weak jobs report, a moderation in price growth could ease some inflation anxiety at the Fed, though the odds of a hike—negative for non-yielding gold—would build if higher energy prices add pressure. U.S. President Donald Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran on Monday, a hardening stance that dims hopes for a Hormuz deal. Trump also played down his contacts with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, saying he had spoken with him only once, briefly, since May. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, one of three dissenters last month, said several hikes may be needed to reach the 2% target. Spot gold was last up 0.6% at $4,415.35 an ounce, though bullion remains about 16% below pre-war levels.

MoneyGram said it has expanded its cash-and-crypto exchange service, MoneyGram Ramps, to Solana, allowing wallets, exchanges, and developers in the Solana ecosystem to connect to its global cash network. According to Odaily, the service supports two-way exchanges between cash and digital assets, with cash deposits available in more than 25 countries and cash withdrawals in more than 170 countries and regions. MoneyGram previously launched a USDC-based cash on- and off-ramp with Stellar and issued the dollar-backed stablecoin MGUSD.

CME Group announced that 24-hour silver trading will begin on September 11. According to Odaily, the company said the trading schedule will run around the clock from that date.

Polymarket odds for WTI crude oil to reach certain August price levels fell after earlier rising sharply, with the probability of topping $85 a barrel dropping to 71%, down 13 percentage points in one hour. According to Odaily, the odds of breaking $90 fell to 42%, while the chance of exceeding $95 dropped to 25%.
The article said the probability of WTI crude oil breaking $85 a barrel in August had earlier risen to 95%. It added that signals involving the United States and Iran suggested the two sides were close to reaching some arrangement and that developments were moving toward peace. The article also said Pakistan's interior minister arrived in Tehran for talks, citing Mehr News Agency.

According to Yonhap, the South Korean won edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as SK hynix Inc. sold dollars after its recent U.S. listing. The currency was quoted at 1,415.9 won per dollar at 3:30 p.m., up 2.5 won from the previous day's stock-market close, marking its strongest level since Oct. 2 last year.
The won opened at 1,415.9 won per dollar and touched as high as 1,412.2 won in afternoon trade. Analysts said the won's recent rebound has been driven by sizable dollar inflows after SK hynix converted proceeds from its American depositary receipt offering into won. SK hynix raised about 40 trillion won ($28.2 billion) through the Nasdaq offering last month and is expected to use most of the funds for investment in South Korea. Foreign investors bought a net 44.2 billion won of local stocks in the latest session, while the Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose 0.73% to 6,345.53.

According to Jin10, COMEX gold inventory continued to decline, with physical outflows concentrated in Eligible stock, while Registered stock was unchanged for a second straight day.

UK gilt prices extended a bull-steepening move as Brent crude gave back gains after earlier touching $90 a barrel. According to Sina Finance, the 10-year UK gilt yield fell as much as 5 basis points to 4.94%, after earlier reaching 5.05%.
German bonds also rose, with the 10-year yield down 3 basis points to 3.15% after earlier hitting a higher level. Traders cut bets on rate increases, and markets now price in 26 basis points of cumulative Bank of England tightening by the end of December and 38 basis points of cumulative European Central Bank tightening.

According to Jin10, China’s main futures contracts opened mostly higher in night trading, with coking coal rising more than 2%, and fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, methanol, SC crude oil, and coke each gaining more than 1%, while duplex board and pulp fell nearly 1%.

German government bonds recovered earlier losses after reports said the United States and Iran were close to some arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz, while talks between Oman and Iran were also said to have entered an advanced stage. According to Sina Finance, the move pushed oil prices lower, with Brent crude falling from a high of $90 a barrel to around $87.
Germany's 10-year bond yield had earlier risen 3 basis points to 3.20% before easing to 3.18%. The UK's 10-year bond yield had earlier climbed 6 basis points to 5.05% before slipping back to 4.99%.
Traders also trimmed bets on how much the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will raise rates, with markets now pricing in a cumulative 40 basis points of ECB tightening by year-end and 28 basis points from the Bank of England.

According to Jin10, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said global oil supply disruptions are directly pushing up inflation.

Retail bearish sentiment has reached a record low in recent years, while institutional positioning has lagged further behind. According to Odaily, analysts said the widening gap between U.S. stock fundamentals and liquidity has opened a rare expectations mismatch on Wall Street.
Last week, the S&P 500 rose 22% from late March and briefly topped 7,700 for the first time in history. The index was little changed at Monday's close after investors digested the latest round of earnings reports.
22V Research strategists said there is a clear gap between the AAII bull-bear index and the firm’s proprietary economic data index tracking U.S. macro releases. Their model estimates the current valuation divergence implies gains of 1.6% over the next month, 5.1% over the next three months, and 7.8% over the next six months for the S&P 500.
Dennis DeBusschere, president and chief market strategist at 22V Research, wrote in a client note that current sentiment relative to economic data suggests market returns will be above normal levels. HSBC global equity strategist Alastair Pinder also said the many macro concerns appearing in recent weeks have given investors reason to question the current stock market rally.

According to Jin10, market sources said satellite images showed tankers maintaining the Middle East crude export route outside the Strait of Hormuz through ship-to-ship transfers.

According to CNBC, Truist Securities upgraded Best Buy to buy from hold and lifted its price target to $95 from $81, implying 15% upside from Monday's close. Analyst Scot Ciccarelli said continued replacement demand, internal changes such as appliance delivery, and early mini-product cycles including AI wearables are supporting improvement at the consumer electronics retailer. He expects Best Buy's domestic comparable sales rose 2.5% in the fiscal second quarter, above the roughly 1% increase expected by analysts, and said the company should benefit further as artificial intelligence adoption accelerates across consumer hardware. Best Buy is set to report fiscal second-quarter earnings on Aug. 27. LSEG data shows 21 of the 26 analysts covering the stock rate it hold, while three have buy or strong buy ratings.

According to Jin10, at the 23:00 close, China’s domestic futures main contracts finished mixed, with fuel oil rising more than 2%, coking coal, coke, and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rising more than 1%, and bitumen (asphalt) and caustic soda rising nearly 1%. On the downside, bottle chip fell more than 1% and pulp fell nearly 1%.

Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has launched a U.S. investment-grade bond sale. According to Odaily, the offering comes about two weeks after ICE announced plans to buy bond electronic trading platform MarketAxess for about $6 billion.
People familiar with the matter said the bond sale may be split into as many as five parts with maturities ranging from three to 10 years. The initial price guidance for the longest-dated bond was about 1.15 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields.
ICE previously said it would acquire MarketAxess Holdings to expand its presence in the fixed-income trading market. MarketAxess is one of the leading electronic bond trading platforms and serves institutional investors by providing trading in corporate bonds, government bonds, and other fixed-income products.
ICE owns the New York Stock Exchange, futures exchanges, clearing operations, and data services. MarketAxess's electronic bond trading network would add to ICE's fixed-income trading ecosystem, according to the article.

Hong Kong technology stocks traded lower, with JD.com and Xiaomi Group falling more than 3%. According to Odaily, Kuaishou and Baidu also declined.

According to Jin10, Brent crude and U.S. crude gave back part of their gains after a Qatar government spokesperson said talks between Oman and Iran had entered an advanced stage.

A BRENTOIL short position at one address was fully liquidated, resulting in a loss of $1.33 million. According to Odaily, the liquidation occurred as oil prices rose.

JPMorgan said the recent decline in SK Hynix's share price was driven by several market headlines, including reduced HBM chip capacity, uncertainty over pricing, unclear timing for a shareholder return plan tied to a possible subsidiary IPO, and disclosure of a large infrastructure capital spending plan. According to Odaily, the bank said the HBM specification changes were a necessary response to current supply tightness and that reports of a 50% HBM price decline were inaccurate.
JPMorgan also said the infrastructure investment plan is part of SK Hynix's strategy to secure fab capacity and prepare for additional fabs after reaching its 1nm wafer production target in 2030. The bank said management has stated that a new shareholder return plan will be announced by the end of next month, and it believes the worst period may already be over.
JPMorgan expects market sentiment toward the company's stock to improve gradually over the medium term. It said investors should watch for a shareholder return plan update by the end of September, HBM contract price updates by the end of September, and progress on the U.S. subsidiary listing plan within the next month.

According to CNBC, Bank of America’s derivatives research team said signs of bubble-like price action persisted beneath the surface even as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit fresh record highs last week. Strategist Arjun Goyal said volatility in S&P 500 options rose sharply last week and that uncertainty remains over whether the next leg higher will be led by technology or broaden into other parts of the market. He also noted that the S&P 500 technology sector, which includes many artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks, is up 22% in 2026, while energy has risen 34%. Over the past three months, healthcare has gained 18%, financials 13%, and tech 5%. Goyal said investors should stay exposed to equities through S&P 500 call options, specifically the 7,900 strike calls expiring in September.

US stocks closed modestly lower on Monday as doubts grew over whether the US and Iran can reach a lasting near-term resolution, according to Sina Finance. The Dow fell 60.949 points, or 0.11%, to 53,975.98; the Nasdaq dropped 85.258 points, or 0.32%, to 26,605.36; and the S&P 500 slipped 4.53 points, or 0.06%, to 7,753.11. Intel was among the day's biggest drags, falling 4% after the company said it would issue $15 billion in common stock. Other decliners included Nvidia and Apple, down 2.9% and 1.5% respectively. Iran said it was close to a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran maintained it would not hold direct talks with the US until certain conditions are met. According to Tasnim, a semi-official news agency linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Sunday that restarting talks would be "impossible" as long as the US continues to violate a memorandum of understanding signed in June and fails to compensate for its "violations." Oil prices rose Monday on market uncertainty. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed up about 5.1% at $82.13 a barrel, with crude inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling to their lowest level since January 1983. The international benchmark, Brent crude futures, settled 5% higher at $87.72 a barrel. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent strongly hinted in an interview that a deal was near. But President Trump told Axios on Sunday that the US and Iran were "only half negotiating," saying he wanted the Middle Eastern country to feel economic pressure. "Everyone is tired of the back and forth," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments. "But every time tensions in the Middle East flare up, they are smaller in scale than what we've seen before, so I think that partly explains today," he added, especially against a backdrop where "earnings-season fundamentals are so strong." The three major US indices had just come off their best week since April, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high last week. Stocks got a boost last Friday after the July nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected contraction in jobs, raising investor hopes that the Federal Reserve would hold off on further tightening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, fed funds futures traders now put the probability of a September rate move at about 52%, down from 67% a week earlier.