24/10/03 The situation in the Middle East escalated again, and BTC fell to 60,000. How to grasp the next market trend!

On September 21, the US Embassy issued an evacuation order, urging American citizens in Lebanon to evacuate and stating that the embassy could not assist American citizens who remained in Lebanon. On September 23, the Chinese Embassy issued an evacuation order, urging Chinese citizens in Israel to evacuate as soon as possible. On October 1, Israel fired fireworks at Israel, and Bitcoin fell from 66,550 to a low of 60,000, and Ethereum fell from around 2,700 to around 2,351.

There are several concerns about the future: the global economy has already entered a recession, and the Great Depression may come as early as 2026. I have been watching Mr. Lu highly approve of economic analysis and forecasts, and I will continue to pay attention to this specific analysis.

Second: There is a certain bubble in AI. This bubble is not like the burst of the Internet in 2000, but every new era of technological innovation has a relatively long period of landing and application, and the valuation is overvalued. In the past two years, especially since the advent of ChatGPT chatbot in 2022, the valuation of AI-related companies has risen sharply. Take Chatgpt as an example, it has invested huge funds.

Third: Local conflicts and Kondratieff cycles: We are currently in a phase of recession and depression. If the epidemic, the real estate crash and local conflicts accelerate the recession, then 2025-2027 will be a period of depression. Although Powell repeatedly reminded that the US economy is strong, he expressed concerns about the 50 basis point rate cut and the accelerated rate cut in November-December.

There is no need to say more about local conflicts. Once the fireworks are set off, it is our wallets that will be blown up. As for the third world war, it will not happen in the short term, after all, the upper class people value their lives more than we do, but local conflicts continue...

I mainly engage in secondary trading, with technical aspects as priority. I also pay attention to news, sentiment and capital aspects, which complement each other.

Flatbread

Bitcoin fell for three consecutive days, losing more than 6,000 points. The daily MACD returned to the zero axis and the fast and slow lines crossed. It has been falling since the risk warning on the 28th, but it has now reached the K-first support area of ​​57,000-60,600. Here, the short-term support is completed after the breakthrough. The rebound pressure at the 4-hour level is 62,300.

The daily line broke through the triangle convergence in the rising flag and then stepped back. The fourth quarter is the best quarter, so it depends on whether the triangle will continue to oscillate for a period of time before breaking upward. The text on October 1st said that the callback target is 5.6-5.7W, which is also the reversal pattern of the K-line from September 13 to 17. It cannot fall below 55555, otherwise it will at least look to 52500.

support:

pressure:

ether

Ethereum is still falling but is also close to the support of 2250-2400. This range is also very critical. If it falls below 2150 or even 2100, it may not be able to support. So pay attention to this position first.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate fell below 0.04 again, and it may be difficult to support 0.03833 below. Stay tuned!

support:

pressure:

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