waller

Fed Governor Waller: Trump threatens Fed independence, but has so far failed to undermine it

Oct. 13 — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday during a discussion at the 2026 Bloomberg New Economy Forum that U.S. President Donald Trump poses a threat to the Fed’s independence, but has so far failed to undermine it.

Waller was unequivocal, adding: "I believe Congress and the courts will protect the Fed’s independence." This was his first direct public response to Trump’s ongoing pressure on Fed policy.

In addition to discussing the Fed’s independence, Waller analyzed AI’s dual impact on the economy and inflation. He said AI could boost GDP per capita over the long term, but the demand surge from large-scale AI infrastructure investment is already adding to inflationary pressures. This effect could last two to three years, and the Fed needs to consider how to respond.

Discussing market pricing, Waller also noted that the rise in real yields is not driven solely by inflation expectations; it already reflects investors’ assessment of growth in economic fundamentals.

The dollar index showed little reaction to Waller’s remarks. As of publication, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was slightly lower, trading around 102.30.

The Fed Speech Tracker Index gave Waller’s remarks a score of 6.2 out of 10, slightly below his historical average of 6.7, though the overall tone remained somewhat hawkish.

Meanwhile, the Fed Sentiment Index fell 1.52 points to 137.39. This indicates a slight easing in hawkish sentiment, but the index remains deep in hawkish territory.

Finally, do you think political pressure will materially influence the Fed’s future interest-rate decisions? What do you expect from the Fed’s rate path in October? Share your thoughts in the comments.

#美联储 #Waller

[The Fed is hawkish again! Waller: We still need rate hikes, but not every time 🔥]

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Fed official Waller delivered an important signal:

There may be more rate hikes ahead, but they don’t necessarily have to be consecutive.

Waller said that if the upcoming economic data meets expectations, the Fed may still need to raise rates further so inflation can return to the 2% target faster.

But he also emphasized:

Rate hikes don’t need to be conducted at every meeting.

So what does this mean?

In simple terms, what the market is most concerned about right now is the October meeting—there is indeed room for the Fed to “pause” for the time being.

However, this does not mean the Fed has begun to pivot toward rate cuts.

Waller’s logic is clear:

Inflation hasn’t returned to 2% yet → interest rates may still need to be higher → but the pace of rate hikes can be adjusted based on economic data.

Currently, the Fed’s benchmark interest rate remains in the 3.75%–4% range, and the next FOMC meeting will be held on October 27–28.

The question is: what does this have to do with BTC?

If the Fed truly holds off on hikes in October, risk assets in the short term may get some breathing room.

But if inflation remains stubborn, and the market again prices in further hikes, BTC will still face liquidity pressure.

📌 So what’s really worth watching now isn’t just whether the Fed will hike rates in October—it’s whether inflation data can continue to fall, and exactly how many more rate hikes the Fed plans to make afterward.
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【Minutes say take a breather, officials say there’s more to do. Who should money believe? 🤔📉】

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The minutes say it’s time to take a breather, but officials say there’s still more to do. I think this is the biggest source of tension right now. The market had just let out a sigh of relief, and then came another reality check. And $BTC has already taken a tumble. Who should money believe? No one dares to say for sure right now. 🥶

Fed Governor Waller was very direct on Thursday. Speaking at a forum in Istanbul, he said inflation is still too high and the job of raising rates isn’t done. But he also left the door open: he’s not insisting on consecutive hikes. The direction hasn’t changed, but the pace is up for discussion. That’s a classic hawkish stance with some wiggle room. 🗣️

He also singled out two drivers of inflation: massive investment in AI infrastructure and the recent spike in energy prices. My personal view is that neither of these will cool off easily. They’re more like slow-moving forces, continually feeding into expectations. They may take longer to fade than people think. 🔥

$BTC ’s reaction was the most honest. The price fell to around $82,810. It was down 1.4% over 24 hours. Total market cap shrank to $1.66 trillion. $ETH fell 1.9% to $2,561. Solana dropped 3.0%, and XRP fell 3.8%. 📊

It wasn’t just one comment weighing on risk assets. The 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.3%, its highest level since 2002. Brent crude climbed above $100. On October 7, ETFs saw net outflows of $484.9 million—the biggest single-day withdrawal since June. 🧨

Put simply, the appeal of non-yielding assets has been eclipsed. Risk-free returns have become more attractive, so money naturally flows into Treasuries. What I care about more is who the market will believe first. The minutes lean dovish, while officials lean hawkish—the divide is huge. Until the market digests this, volatility won’t ease. So, in my view, rushing to buy the dip isn’t wise. ⚖️

📌 In a nutshell: The direction is still unsettled, the pace is already a point of contention, and investors are getting tossed around.

Do you think rates will be held steady in October, or will there really be another hike? Let’s talk in the comments.
#美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息 #Waller

Ex-NY Fed Chief: Fed's Inflation Fighter Credibility on the Line

Bill Dudley, the former New York Fed chief, is sounding the alarm. He's telling anyone who'll listen that the Fed's credibility as an inflation fighter is on the chopping block. Five years of blowing past the 2% target is not a good look, and it's starting to cost them.

#fed #inflation #dudley #waller

“#Waller : PAUSE IN SEPTEMBER?” — The market waiting for the Fed to say something while everyone holds their breath.

#Fed #mercado