奔跑财经-FinaceRun

BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw total net inflows of $304 million on Monday, with no all-category crypto ETF recording total net outflows.

September 1, according to SoSovalue data, U.S. BTC spot ETFs yesterday recorded nearly $217 million in net total inflows, the first day of net inflows this week;

Of these, BlackRock’s IBIT led the net inflow ranking with nearly $206 million (about 2,600 BTC). IBIT’s cumulative net inflows now stand at $63.57 billion;

Next were Grayscale’s BTC and Fidelity’s FBTC, recording single-day net inflows of $9.42 million (119.11 BTC) and $6.88 million (87.01 BTC), respectively;

Bitwise BITB and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT recorded single-day net inflows of $4.29 million (54.27 BTC) and $3.62 million (45.85 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, VanEck’s HODL recorded the only net outflows yesterday, with $13.41 million (169.67 BTC);

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $99.61 billion, accounting for 6.29% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $54.85 billion.

On the same day, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $87.68 million in net total inflows for the 11th consecutive day;

Of these, BlackRock’s ETHA and Grayscale’s ETH ranked first and second in net inflows yesterday, with $59.94 million (about 2,414 ETH) and $13.50 million (about 5,440 ETH), respectively;

Next were Fidelity’s FETH, Bitwise’s ETHW, and 21Shares’ TETH, recording single-day net inflows of $9.27 million (about 3,730 ETH), $3.73 million (about 1,500 ETH), and $1.24 million (498.85 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $15.61 billion, accounting for 5.23% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $13.06 billion.

Among other all-category crypto ETFs, XRP, SOL, and HBAR ETFs recorded single-day total net inflows of $5.64 million, $0.925 million, and nearly $0.399 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

SEC tightens scrutiny of SPVs, requiring verification of the authenticity of private company equity assets

On September 1, according to The Wall Street Journal, the SEC is stepping up its regulatory review of special purpose vehicles (SPVs), focusing on verifying the authenticity of assets in which registered investment advisers invest through SPVs in private companies. The SEC is requiring institutions to provide evidence confirming that the SPVs truly hold shares of privately held, non-public companies as claimed to investors.

The main backdrop for this regulatory upgrade is SpaceX’s highly anticipated pre-IPO outlook and Anthropic’s expected move toward going public. In this market environment, many SPV funds have seized the opportunity to intensify their marketing efforts, actively selling investors indirect equity interests ahead of the IPO in an attempt to capitalize on the investment frenzy.

However, as marketing activities surge, the number of market complaints has risen in parallel, and potential compliance risks have become increasingly apparent. In response, the SEC has decided to launch a special review to strengthen oversight of SPV operations, in order to maintain market order and protect investors’ interests.

According to people familiar with the matter, the review methods include requesting formal written documents, and some deeper investigations may even involve in-person interviews. Due to varying degrees of complexity, the entire review process could last for several weeks, and at most up to one year.

With stricter regulation, the SEC aims to address misconduct in the private secondary market, such as information opacity and inaccurate asset disclosures. The focus is to prevent violations including the fabrication of underlying equity held by SPV products and misleading investors, and to further standardize the over-the-counter trading market for private company equity.

#私募股权合规核查

After Leaving Prison, Zhao Changpeng (CZ) Gives His First Interview to Chinese-Language Media: “It’s Worth It” for a $4.3 Billion Fine; “Freedom Is Very Fragile” Is What Hurts Most After Getting Out

Recently, Zhao Changpeng (CZ), the founder of Binance with a net worth in the billions, appeared at the Hong Kong Bitcoin Asia 2026 after receiving a U.S. presidential pardon, and granted an interview to Hong Kong 01. This is his first in-depth disclosure since the release of his autobiography, *Binance Life*.

Despite having gone through a staggering $4.3 billion fine and four months of imprisonment, he still maintained his signature smile and discussed the intensely high-pressure experience in a calm tone.

When talking about life in prison, Zhao revealed that he once drafted the initial version of his 374-page autobiography by queuing up to use a prison computer limited to 15 minutes at a time and that could not support copy-and-paste. But compared with the physical restrictions, he believes the most tormenting part was “endless uncertainty.”

He admitted that his fine rose from 800 million to 4.3 billion, his sentence changed from home confinement to actual incarceration, and even with only 14 days left in his sentence, he faced sudden detentions three times. In response, he says he has already gotten used to bad news and believes that when problems arise, he will do his best to solve them.

Regarding the massive $4.3 billion fine, Zhao said this was not simply surrendering, but “helping the industry carry something big.” If he hadn’t done it at the time, both Binance and the industry would have been affected, and most people in the industry were still very grateful that he did so.

He also recalled the darkest moment after FTX collapsed in 2022, when Bitcoin fell to $16,000, and he believes it was his kind of compromise that helped secure Binance and the industry. Therefore, he says the money was “worth it.”

However, he is also clear-minded about this: even if he hadn’t taken that stand, the industry wouldn’t have died. “The industry may drop for a while, and then it will rise again.”

Still, he rarely showed his practical side, admitting that when facing targeted crackdowns from the world’s strongest countries, his personal power to resist is extremely limited.

After experiencing regulatory crackdowns and imprisonment, his belief in “money freedom” only became firmer. But he also came to a profound realization that freedom in the real world is “actually very fragile.”

In the end, this former “crypto godfather” used four months of imprisonment to gain a deeper understanding of freedom.

He also believes that without 100% freedom, compromise is the norm, and everything needs to find balance within constraints.

#币安人生

Ahead of the release of the non-farm payrolls data, traders bet that expectations of two rate hikes by the Federal Reserve within the year are intensifying

On August 31, the August non-farm payroll employment report scheduled to be released this coming Friday may become an important reference for the Fed’s September policy meeting.

According to the latest CME “FedWatch” data, the probability that traders expect the Fed to implement two rate hikes within the year has risen significantly. This sharp surge in expectations is mainly driven by the direct catalyst of recent hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

At last week’s Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, Powell said that if inflation does not show clear signs of cooling, the Fed “still has work to do.” Seen by the market as the strongest rate-hike signal to date, these comments directly reversed the prior rate-cut narrative.

As a result, market expectations for a September rate hike have jumped from about 35% the previous week to nearly 62% currently, while the probability of another rate hike in December is even as high as 89%.

Analysts note that if the non-farm payroll employment data released on Friday shows strong performance, it will further strengthen confidence that the Fed should continue raising rates. Conversely, if the labor market shows signs of weakness, these currently steep rate-hike expectations could quickly cool.

In addition to the non-farm payrolls data, the August CPI inflation data due to be released next month will also become a key yardstick for the market to judge the Fed’s policy path.

Finally, do you think the release of this non-farm payrolls data and the subsequent CPI data will further reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes, or will it lead the market to cool its expectations? Feel free to leave a comment and share your views.

#非农就业数据 #加息预期

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbs to a record high as the U.S. Treasury secretary says “Abenomics” may already be at the end

On August 31, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose 2.5 basis points to 2.950%, the highest level since September 1996, nearing the important psychological threshold of 3%.

This breakthrough move reflects the market’s strong expectations for Japan’s monetary policy normalization, and also signals that Japan’s long-standing ultra-low interest-rate environment is undergoing a fundamental shift.

Meanwhile, as it faces the “double blow” of persistent yen weakness and a surge in long-term bond yields, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent earlier this month took an extremely nuanced stance on X.

Bessent said he expects Japan’s central bank governor Kazuo Ueda to “do the right thing” on monetary policy, and he said bluntly, “I’m not going to tell them what to do.”

But I do believe that “we may already be at the end of Abenomics.” The remarks have also been interpreted by the market as tacit acceptance—if not support—from the United States for Japan’s shift away from its long period of ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

Notably, Bessent’s comments came at a time when the yen-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate has already fallen below the key 160 level—also the first time it has returned to that level since Japan intervened in the FX market about a month ago.

In the previous intervention, the United States and Japan took coordinated action for the first time since 1998 to support the yen, highlighting the potential threat that excessive yen depreciation poses to global financial stability.

Analysts believe that Bessent’s upcoming meeting with Kazuo Ueda during the two-day G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, could become an important window for signals regarding further adjustments to Japan’s monetary policy.

Overall, as Japan’s long-term government bond yields continue to rise and pressure mounts on a weak yen, the Bank of Japan is facing the dual challenge of balancing domestic economic recovery with maintaining international exchange-rate stability.

#日本国债收益率

$3.2 Billion Raked In in the Single Week! Crypto Funds Record the Largest Inflow Since October 2025

On August 31, according to Cointelegraph citing the latest research report from Bank of America, the cryptocurrency market is seeing a wave of strong institutional money returning.

In the data, over the just-ended week, crypto funds recorded a net inflow of as much as $3.2 billion, setting a new record for the largest weekly inflow since October 2025.

Judging from the flow trend, this $3.2 billion inflow clearly surpassed the average weekly inflow level shown in the charts, indicating a significant increase in institutional investors’ willingness to allocate to crypto assets.

By tracking Bank of America’s global investment strategy and EPFR’s compiled chart data, this appears to be the strongest money inflow performance in the past year, potentially signaling a positive shift in market sentiment.

Combined with the recent market move where Bitcoin rebounded strongly from below $65,000 to above $78,000, the surge of this massive amount of capital may be viewed as a core catalyst driving this leg of the rebound.

Market participants generally believe that institutional investors are using the earlier pullback window to build large positions, betting on improving macro liquidity and further clarity in crypto regulation.

Industry insiders say such large-scale institutional inflows often mean broader market participation, and they also inject substantial confidence into the recent choppy market.

#加密货币基金

Saylor hints at “the king returns”: after two months of silence, could Strategy restart its Bitcoin accumulation strategy?

After stopping its Bitcoin purchases for more than two months, Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor posted on X yesterday, saying “We’re back,” along with a chart showing the company’s past six years of more than 110 Bitcoin trades.

This minimalist remark instantly ignited the community and sparked public speculation. Many members commented that the giant known for its “crazy hoarding of coins” may be about to end its quiet period and restart a frenzy of Bitcoin acquisitions.

Looking back at Strategy’s recent moves, the company’s last publicly disclosed Bitcoin purchase was June 22, corresponding to the week of June 15–21. After that, over the next two months, the company not only paused accumulation, but also rarely made multiple sales—highly unusual for its six-year trading history.

Meanwhile, the company is also carrying out large-scale fundraising and capital operations. Moreover, after the latest initiative rolled out last week, it additionally established a $1.59 billion cash plan to supplement its $5.1 billion regular USD reserve.

In addition, the STRC preferred shares—which at one point dipped below par value to $75—have recently rebounded strongly to above $97, greatly easing the company’s financial pressure.

Saylor’s statement comes as Bitcoin’s price has bottomed out and rebounded. In the past week and a half, BTC has risen from below $65,000 to around $78,500.

Given Strategy’s average entry cost of $75,653, this means the company has returned to paper profits for the first time since May.

Just a few weeks ago, the unrealized losses on its holdings had also at one point exceeded $10 billion. The return to profitability provides the most direct financial backing for it to restart buying.

As for the specific restart timeline, the current CEO Phong Le previously hinted at some clues, saying it “may happen before the end of the year,” but did not provide further details.

Saylor’s public remarks have drawn intense market attention. It remains unclear whether this is an official signal for a new round of buying plans or simply a reaction to the company’s stock price rebound. The market is waiting to see what happens after trading opens on Monday.

#Strategy

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has increased by more than $4.6 billion week-on-week, but the rebound in on-chain liquidity has not yet been fully confirmed

According to data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, as of the week ending August 30, Bitcoin’s realized cap recorded a gain of over $4.6 billion, marking the most intense short-term realized cap volatility since this bear-market cycle began.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price rebounded sharply from around $63,000 at the beginning of August to above $80,000, at one point touching a three-month high of $81,520, indicating that market liquidity is clearly improving.

However, Darkfost noted that this $4.6 billion increase is not entirely attributable to new capital. The key factor is that some investors who entered at higher levels have been forced to cut positions during the recent pullback. The UTXOs generated by this discounted sell-off can also raise realized cap.

Therefore, while this rebound to some extent supports signs of liquidity returning, it is far from enough to confirm that all of this incremental rise comes from new OTC buyers.

Although on-chain data still needs comprehensive confirmation, the real demand in the spot market provides strong supporting evidence. As of August 27, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw total net inflows exceeding $3 billion for 9 consecutive days, suggesting that the price recovery is not driven solely by leveraged speculation.

In addition, the macro environment—such as the continued weakening of the US dollar and the US Treasury’s expansion of its long-term bond purchase program—has also prompted investors to reposition scarce assets like Bitcoin based on a “devaluation trade” logic.

That said, analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of this liquidity rebound. Bitcoin’s 30-day average growth rate is only 0.4%, meaning the liquidity expansion trend has not yet been sufficiently confirmed.

In Darkfost’s view, the true confirmation signal of liquidity recovery would require several consecutive weeks of positive growth in realized capital, along with a meaningful increase in the 30-day average growth rate, to prove that a new cost basis is being steadily built.

#比特币链上流动性

AI investment frenzy rekindles the myth of wealth creation: in 2025, the number of global billionaires and their total wealth both hit historic record highs

August 30—According to the latest annual report released by wealth intelligence firm Altrata, driven strongly by the AI investment boom, the global wealth landscape achieved a historic leap in 2025.

The report states that the total number of billionaires worldwide reached 3,795 this year, setting a new record. Even more strikingly, the combined wealth of these top tycoons surged 12.8% year over year to $1.51 trillion.

From a macro perspective, this figure already accounts for nearly one quarter of the total market capitalization of the companies that make up the U.S. S&P 500—signaling that the concentration of global top wealth has reached an unprecedented level.

At the very top of this ranking, there are 29 individuals with fortunes exceeding $5 billion. Tech industry representatives such as Larry Page, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos are among them, and AI is the core engine behind entrepreneurs’ explosive wealth growth.

The analysis indicates that as AI business footprints expand at high speed, the fortunes of many tech entrepreneurs rise in tandem with the growth of their companies’ market values. AI has already become the central driver of global wealth growth in 2025.

The report also reveals these billionaires’ preferred directions for allocating their wealth, noting that sports and philanthropy are their two most favored areas for investment.

Data show that 201 billionaires directly own sports organizations or invest in sports franchise rights.

In their view, investing in professional sports teams is not only an effective way to showcase the scale of one’s financial might, but also a key channel to expand elite social circles and integrate into core resource networks.

Meanwhile, philanthropy is also a key way for billionaires to amplify their social impact. With deep financial resources and industry capabilities, they move into public-interest efforts—empowering industrial innovation—while fulfilling social responsibilities and, at the same time, strengthening their voice in the public sphere.

#亿万富翁

This week, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw total net inflows of approximately $1.749 billion. Among crypto ETFs of all categories, only one had a net outflow of spot capital.

On August 30, according to SosoValue data, US BTC spot ETFs recorded $924 million in net inflows this week, marking the 3rd week of cumulative net inflows since August;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s BTC, with $938 million and $81.83 million respectively, ranked first and second for total net inflows this week;

Next were Fidelity’s FBTC and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, recording $61.98 million and $25.25 million respectively in total net inflows for the week;

Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares ARKB and Grayscale’s GBTC saw net outflows of $85.14 million and $77.60 million respectively for the week;

Bitwise’s BITB and VanEck’s HODL also recorded weekly net outflows of $16.00 million and $4.16 million respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $97.59 billion, accounting for 6.28% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $54.63 billion.

In the same week, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $824 million in net inflows, also marking the 3rd week of cumulative net inflows since August;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA, Fidelity’s FETH, and BlackRock’s ETHB ranked in the top three for total net inflows this week, at $567 million, $96.50 million, and $77.29 million respectively;

Next were Grayscale’s ETH, Morgan Stanley’s MSSE, and VanEck’s ETHV, recording $61.47 million, $8.63 million, and $4.51 million respectively in total net inflows for the week;

Grayscale’s ETHE, 21Shares TETH, Bitwise’s ETHW, and Franklin’s EZET recorded weekly net inflows of $3.02 million, $2.71 million, $2.32 million, and nearly $0.94 million respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $15.23 billion, accounting for 5.20% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $12.97 billion.

For other spot ETFs, aside from the LTC ETF, which recorded nearly $240,000 in total net outflows for the week, XRP, SOL, DOGE, LINK, HBAR, and HYPE ETFs all recorded total net inflows to varying degrees for the week.

#加密货币ETF

Traders: Bitcoin bear market depth is getting shallower, and late entrants should be wary of a market that may have already run ahead

On August 29, Killa, a trader focused on BTC quantitative analysis, posted on the X platform. By reviewing data from Bitcoin’s multiple bull and bear cycles, he observed that the current bear market’s downside depth is narrowing step by step.

Personally, he believes that the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle has likely already been formed. And investors who are still expecting a drop to $50,000 in October are almost unlikely to wait for such a scenario to unfold.

However, Killa mentioned a fairly realistic risk concern: if Bitcoin dips to $61,000, the liquidation size for long positions is expected to reach $20 billion;

and from an incentive standpoint, market makers themselves have a strong motive to deliberately suppress the price and liquidate these long positions, and then redeploy by rebuilding and entering new positions.

Killa has more than 200,000 followers on X. He accurately predicted the peak of this bull cycle last May. In mid-April this year, at a Bitcoin price of $74,688, he opened a short position, and then flipped to go long after the market sold off broadly on June 5.

In summary, based on the current market action, traders believe that investors who are fixated on waiting for the perfect “needle-insertion” bottom-picking entry are likely to experience the market running ahead of schedule.

#市场观点 #比特币分析

Analyst: Bitcoin Nears $80,000 Triggering a Surge in Exchange Inflows, But Pullbacks Quietly Reduce Near-Term Selling Pressure

August 30 — As Bitcoin once again charges toward the key resistance level of $80,000, on-chain data shows that the market is undergoing a large-scale contest of capital.

In a report yesterday, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said that over the past 7 days, inflows of Bitcoin into centralized exchanges (CeX) have risen sharply, peaking when BTC tested the $80,000 threshold.

Looking at the segmented data from exchanges, the pressure from selling/turnover is mainly concentrated on the top platforms. Among them, Binance ranks first with net inflows averaging about 10,700 BTC per day, followed by Coinbase Advanced with average daily inflows of roughly 7,100 BTC per day;

Meanwhile, Kraken and OKX also recorded more than 2,000 BTC of average daily inflows. Such a significant transfer of holdings once again confirms the market’s hesitation and re-positioning ahead of a key psychological level.

Darkfost explains that $80,000 draws such a large volume of sell orders because it represents the average cost basis of all capital invested in Bitcoin—an “inflection point” for breakeven.

Whenever the price reaches this level, many investors choose to lock in small profits or exit via stop-losses, causing this area to become a natural concentration zone for sell pressure.

However, as Bitcoin’s price has recently pulled back, near-term selling pressure has clearly weakened. But this subtle shift in sentiment is not the end of the trend—it is more like a “clearing of positions” before an upward move.

The analyst believes that as long as the selling pressure can continue to ease, after this round of profit-taking turnover is digested, Bitcoin will very likely soon test upward again and attempt to break through this critical resistance level.

#比特币8万美元关口

An $80,000 breakout is the key watershed for BTC: strong resistance sits above at $83,000–$84,500; once that level is breached, BTC could be headed toward $100,000

On August 28, multiple crypto analysts shared their interpretations of Bitcoin’s key price levels. The prevailing market consensus is that the $80,000 level—either as a decisive threshold or as the market’s main focal point—is critical.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, using a capital-weighted model, estimates that Bitcoin’s average market investment cost is about $79,600. This means the average invested capital is already close to $80,000, making this price an important psychological and technical barrier.

The analysis suggests that if Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 on both daily and weekly closes, it would imply that most market positions shift into a profitable zone, releasing a strong bullish signal.

Ali Martinez, meanwhile, based on the weekly chart pattern, noted that Bitcoin’s current走势 resembles the bottom structure from late 2022 to late 2023. It has already broken out of a descending trendline, and the $83,000 area near the May 2026 high is again expected to draw keen attention.

On-chain data from the URPD platform shows that Bitcoin previously accumulated around 973,000 BTC within the $83,307–$84,569 range, forming a strong resistance zone. The first attempt to break into this range will most likely face sell pressure.

At present, on-chain trader profit margins have risen to 25%. Historically, after reaching this level, profit-taking often follows. Some large whales have already realized roughly $88 million in gains, and the risk of a short-term pullback has increased.

To deal with potential sell pressure, Ali Martinez marked two key support lines. The first support zone is at $76,996–$78,258, where about 843,000 BTC has settled;

Conversely, if this support zone is broken, the next demand area the market will likely test drops to $63,111, where about 925,000 BTC had previously traded.

In Martine’s view, if this round of price action pulls back but holds above the pullback support level, it could become another excellent buying window before an attempt to push toward $100,000.

In summary: $80,000 is the average holding-cost line for Bitcoin. Holding above it would mean most coins turn profitable. However, entering the dense trading range of $83,000–$84,500 would likely face resistance from trapped positions. The risk of a short-term choppy pullback should not be ignored.

Do you think Bitcoin will firmly hold above the weekly $80,000 level and then directly break the strong resistance at $84,500, or will it first pull back to test the support zone? See you in the comments!

#比特币链上数据

BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw total net inflows of nearly $477 million on Thursday, marking the 9th consecutive day of net inflows

On August 27, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF had yesterday’s inflows of $242 million, recording the 9th straight day of total net inflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT, Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB, and Bitwise’ BITB recorded daily net inflows of nearly $278 million (about 3,470 BTC), $29.75 million (371.33 BTC), and $21.74 million (271.33 BTC), respectively;

Next were Grayscale’s BTC, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, and VanEck’s HODL, which recorded daily net inflows of $11.66 million (145.55 BTC), $6.66 million (83.09 BTC), and $5.66 million (70.70 BTC), respectively;

Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC, however, recorded daily net outflows of $83.63 million (1,040 BTC) and $27.21 million (339.64 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $100.93 billion, representing 6.28% of Bitcoin’s total market value, with cumulative total net inflows of $54.83 billion.

In the same day, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs brought in nearly $235 million, also recording the 9th consecutive day of total net inflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH ranked first and second for yesterday’s net inflows, with $130 million (about 51,900 ETH) and $56.23 million (about 22,410 ETH), respectively;

Next were BlackRock’s ETHB and Grayscale’s ETH, recording daily net inflows of $20.67 million (about 8,240 ETH) and $14.31 million (about 5,700 ETH), respectively;

Morgan Stanley’s MSSE, Grayscale’s ETHE, and Bitwise’s ETHW recorded daily net inflows of $8.63 million (about 3,440 ETH), $3.02 million (about 1,200 ETH), and $1.44 million (about 572.08 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $15.57 billion, representing 5.14% of Ethereum’s total market value, with cumulative total net inflows of $12.87 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Bloomberg: SEC’s Proposed New Rule Would Revive Public Token Offerings, but the Market Can’t Recreate the 2018 ICO Craze

August 28, according to Bloomberg, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently put forward a new regulatory framework for crypto-asset financing, aiming to reignite the long-dormant ICO (initial coin offering) funding model.

Under the proposal, startups would be allowed to raise up to $5 million within four years, while the annual funding cap for large projects would be raised to $75 million, and they would not need to submit a complete SEC registration filing.

Judging by the regulatory intent behind the new crypto-asset financing rules, this is undoubtedly a groundbreaking move toward “compliance-based direct financing.”

However, just as the regulatory door has barely opened, the market has already moved on. Bloomberg admits in its report that today’s financing environment is no longer comparable to the frenzy of the 2018 ICO boom.

Data shows that at the peak in January 2018, the monthly funding scale for ICOs reached as high as $3 billion. Today, however, token trading volumes have declined sharply, and retail speculative capital has shifted toward perpetual futures contracts, prediction markets, and the U.S. stock AI sector.

For this “late gift,” industry giants have shown a notably restrained and clear-eyed stance. Dragonfly partner Tom Schmidt said bluntly that having such a rule is better than not having one, but if it had been introduced years ago, its impact would have been far greater.

Pantera Capital partner Cosmo Jiang, meanwhile, directly pointed to the industry’s current reality: previously, meme coins were deemed legal, while tokens with actual value were instead banned—this completely defies the logic of how capitalist societies operate.

Taken together, multiple analysts appear to share a rational consensus. That is, token financing in 2026 will never simply replicate the 2018 ICO wave.

Back then, the market could attract large amounts of capital based solely on whitepapers and concept-driven stories. But after multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, changes in the regulatory environment, and macroeconomic fluctuations, the judgment of investment institutions today has become more pragmatic and cautious.

Therefore, relying only on regulatory compliance exemptions—without genuine cash flow and narrative support—will likely be unable to reignite the financing enthusiasm of that “lawless era.”

#SEC代币融资新规

Analyst: Bitcoin is Repeating a Late-2022 Bottom-Break Pattern; $83,000 Is a Key Level to Watch

On August 28, well-known analyst Ali Charts published a weekly chart analysis post and pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price action is replicating the macro structure seen just before the start of the epic bull market in 2023.

After reviewing historical price movements, Ali found that Bitcoin broke above a declining trend in 2023, tested the prior year’s August high, and then pulled back to around $20,000—after which it began a new round of upward move. Now the market is forming a similar pattern structure.

Based on the BTC weekly chart, Ali Charts said the focus of observation is a key price level formed in May 2026—around $83,000, the prior high. This level also serves as the “equal-equivalent prior high” benchmark against historical comparisons for this current cycle.

He further noted that if Bitcoin can stabilize effectively in this zone and achieve a bottoming reversal (i.e., confirm by revisiting and testing that price level), it is highly likely to set the stage for the next major buying opportunity.

Regarding the question mentioned in the post about “a Bitcoin buying opportunity below $100,000,” the analysis may suggest that the current high-level consolidation is not a trend reversal, but rather accumulation ahead of the launch of a larger market move.

For right-side traders, whether or not Bitcoin can hold or fail at the $83,000 key level will become an important watershed for judging whether the second half of the year can see a strong upward surge.

#比特币关键观察位

Strive CEO Prediction: In the next 4–5 years, Bitcoin will easily break through the $500,000 mark, and the dollar’s devaluation pace will far exceed the average of the past 15 years

On August 28, according to reports by foreign media, Strive CEO Matt Cole made an extremely aggressive prediction to investors in a recent interview.

He believes that within the next 4 to 5 years, Bitcoin’s price will “very easily break through the $500,000 threshold,” while gold and silver will also see significant gains.

Matt Cole pointed out that the core logic behind this astonishing prediction is not simply a bullish view on crypto assets, but rather stems from deep concerns about the fiat currency system.

He also emphasized that the U.S. dollar is experiencing ongoing depreciation, and that the pace of devaluation is likely to far exceed the average of the past 15 years in the coming 4 to 5 years.

Therefore, he reminded investors not to judge future asset prices by today’s purchasing power of the dollar, because “by then, the same one dollar will be able to buy far less than it can today.”

Based on the macro outlook above, Matt Cole said bluntly that “the next year may be somewhat tough,” because amid economic volatility and eroding fiat purchasing power, cash held by ordinary people faces a serious risk of shrinking in real value.

He also said that whether investors want to grow their wealth or simply protect their family’s wealth, they must plan ahead and turn their attention to scarce assets that can hedge against inflation, because “the prices of these scarce assets will rise very high.”

It is understood that Strive’s core investment理念 has long been known for directly fighting inflation and opposing the traditional fiat-credit system.

Of note is that the aggressive nature of Matt Cole’s prediction closely aligns with the “hard-asset” strategy that Strive, an asset-management giant, has consistently promoted.

And against the backdrop of ongoing inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and rising expectations of interest-rate cuts, this forecast undoubtedly injects bullish sentiment into the crypto market and reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as a “digital gold” to counter dollar depreciation.

In summary, Matt Cole’s disruptive $500,000 target price prediction is not only a bet on current market sentiment, but also a high-profile continuation of the firm’s long-term macro narrative of an “asset defense campaign.”

#比特币50万美元

Bitcoin logged the largest single-week U.S.-dollar increase in its history last week, and also posted its biggest percentage gain since March 2023.

On August 28, Cointelegraph, citing data from Galaxy Research, reported that for the week of August 17–23, Bitcoin recorded the largest historical single-week dollar increase. The price rose by $14,775 in that one week, with a weekly gain of 23.5%.

The catalyst behind this round of price action came from a reversal in macro market sentiment. The Treasury resumed long-term government bond repurchase operations, alongside Trump’s support for the “CLARITY Act.” Meanwhile, market shorts rushed to cover, marking Bitcoin’s strongest week since March 2023.

When compared against historical leaderboards in terms of dollar gains, the week’s dollar increase exceeded the prior record of $11,667 from the week of November 4–10, 2024. However, by percentage gain ranking, this move placed 41st in history.

Galaxy’s data shows that during this phase, the market was mainly driven by expectations of policy. Optimism brought by a crypto-friendly Congress helped spur large inflows of capital.

That said, historically large weekly jumps do not necessarily mean the rally will continue in a straight line. The outlook still depends on macro liquidity and whether market capital continues to flow.

Overall, Bitcoin’s record-breaking single-week dollar surge reflects a strong pull from current policy and liquidity expectations on the crypto market. But historical data also suggests that after a sharp spike over the short term, a period of choppy consolidation and pullback often follows. Leveraged traders should be sure to manage contract risk.

Finally, do you think Bitcoin’s strong performance signals the start of a new bull market, or just a concentrated release of short-term sentiment? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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