奔跑财经-FinaceRun

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, with Powell signaling a shift to a 'wait-and-see' strategy.

On December 10 local time, the Federal Reserve announced another rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut following those in September and October, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points.

However, this decision was accompanied by significant internal dissent, with three members casting dissenting votes, the first occurrence since September 2019, highlighting notable divisions within the committee regarding the future policy path.

At the press conference following the meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a key speech, interpreted by the market as a signal shifting his policy stance from 'preset path' to 'flexible wait-and-see'.

He emphasized that the current interest rate is 'in a good position' to respond to changes in the economic outlook, and the Federal Reserve is now 'also in a favorable position to wait and observe further developments in the economy'.

Crucially, Powell also stated that 'no one currently expects interest rate hikes as the basic expectation,' and he did not provide any guidance on whether there would be another rate cut in the near future.

He reiterated that 'monetary policy is not a predetermined fixed route,' and future decisions will be 'made gradually based on the circumstances of each meeting'.

Meanwhile, the 'dot plot' reflecting the long-term interest rate forecasts of Federal Reserve officials indicates that the policy path is expected to become very flat. According to the chart, only one rate cut is predicted in 2026, followed by another in 2027, ultimately reaching a long-term target of about 3%, consistent with the September forecast.

This relatively flat long-term interest rate 'dot plot' guidance, combined with Powell's emphasized 'wait-and-see' strategy, seems to convey a consensus to the market that the most intense phase of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be nearing its end, with future policy adjustments likely to be more tentative, more data-dependent, and the pace noticeably slowing.

In simple terms, from a short-term perspective, the market exhibits relatively optimistic sentiment due to the exclusion of rate hikes; however, from a medium-term viewpoint, the market needs to gradually adjust to maintaining a relatively high interest rate environment over a longer period.

#美联储利率决议 #鲍威尔

China's tightening regulation has led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin mining power, putting pressure on prices to a three-month low.

Recently, as China has once again strengthened its crackdown on Bitcoin mining activities, nearly 400,000 mining machines in regions such as Xinjiang have collectively shut down, resulting in a significant decrease in the overall network computing power.

Analyst Bull Theory believes that the sharp drop in computing power directly affects Bitcoin's price performance. According to on-chain data monitoring, the Bitcoin network's computing power has decreased by about 10% from the October peak. Given that China still controls about 14% of the global Bitcoin computing power, this drop in computing power has had a significant impact on both the Bitcoin network and market sentiment.

At the same time, with Bitcoin prices continuing to decline since October, traditional mining machine profits have turned negative, and seasonal power restrictions due to rising energy costs in North America, combined with multiple pressures such as regional law enforcement actions in China, have further compressed miners' operating space.

Analysts attribute this phenomenon partly to long-term Asian investors reducing their holdings weeks in advance to respond to potential regulatory tightening. Meanwhile, the forced shutdown of mining sites has led to the need to sell Bitcoin reserves and mining equipment to compensate for losses, further increasing market supply pressure. On-chain data also confirms that the scale of selling by long-term holders has seen a significant increase recently.

Moreover, exchange data also shows a trend of regional differentiation. Exchanges focusing on the Asian trading market, such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX, have continued to experience net selling in the fourth quarter, while U.S. exchanges like Coinbase have maintained a net buying position.

The analysis ultimately points out that the current market sell-off is not a panic behavior, but rather a process similar to "supply transfer," during which prices may continue to be under pressure until this process is completed.

It is worth noting that as computing power declines, the "hash price," which measures miners' expected returns, has fallen to a historic low of about $0.037 per TB per second per day. The dual squeeze of compressed profits and rising costs has also intensified the exit pressure on marginal miners.

Affected by the above factors, Bitcoin prices continue to weaken and are currently at the lower end of the range since late November. The market is still focused on the pace of computing power recovery and regulatory trends to assess the next steps.

#比特币算力 #矿工抛售

Analyst: Bitcoin's weekly RSI is approaching oversold levels, and the current upward trend is expected to continue until 2026.

Currently, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold levels, which often indicates that the market will experience a rebound.

According to Julien Bittel, head of research at Global Macro Investor, based on historical patterns, whenever Bitcoin's RSI falls below 30, its average price trend almost always shows a rebound.

According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin's weekly RSI has dropped to just below 37, nearing the oversold range. The last time a similar low occurred was at the bottom of the bear market in December 2022, after which Bitcoin appreciated approximately 660% over two and a half years.

However, Bittel emphasized that one cannot simply rely on halving events to explain market cycles. He believes that the true drivers of cycles may be macroeconomic rhythms like government debt refinancing, and the post-pandemic fiscal policies have delayed the traditional four-year cycle by about a year. Therefore, based on the current financial environment, liquidity expectations, and business cycle judgments, he anticipates that this upward trend is likely to continue until 2026.

Bittel's viewpoint is supported by macroeconomic analyst Milk Road. However, Milk Road believes that short-term oversold signals must be analyzed in conjunction with the overall liquidity environment. If macro conditions continue to improve and funds keep flowing in, even if there are fluctuations during the process, the declines following oversold conditions will often ultimately convert into increases.

Finally, Road gives the opinion that investors should not equate every market pullback with the onset of a bear market, as the macroeconomic situation still supports the judgment that this cycle will extend until 2026.

However, it is important to note that while the long-term outlook for the market is leaning positive, Bitcoin's short-term performance still faces pressure. Over the past week, its price has cumulatively dropped by 5.7%, currently hovering around $86,000.

Overall, the current market sentiment continues to weigh between the oversold signals from the RSI technical perspective and the narrative of the macro cycle, with the short-term market direction still needing further observation.

 #比特币 #周期叙事

The total net inflow for the US BTC spot ETF yesterday was 457 million USD, while the ETH ETF saw a net outflow of 22.43 million USD in a single day.

On December 18, according to SoSovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of 457 million USD yesterday, marking the first day of net inflow this week.

Among them, Fidelity FBTC topped the net inflow list yesterday with 391 million USD (approximately 4,550 BTC), and currently, FBTC has a cumulative net inflow of 12.36 billion USD;

Next was BlackRock IBIT with a single day net inflow of 111 million USD (approximately 1,290 BTC), and currently, IBIT has a cumulative net inflow of 62.63 billion USD;

Meanwhile, Ark 21Shares ARKB and Bitwise BITB saw net outflows of 36.96 million USD (430 BTC) and 8.41 million USD (97.82 BTC) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is 112.57 billion USD, accounting for 6.57% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.73 billion USD.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 22.43 million USD, marking a continuous net outflow of funds for 5 days.

Among them, BlackRock ETHA had the highest net outflow yesterday at 19.61 million USD (approximately 6,950 ETH), and currently, ETHA has a cumulative net inflow of 12.85 billion USD;

Next was Fidelity FETH with a net outflow of 2.81 million USD (997.81 ETH) yesterday, and currently, FETH has a cumulative net inflow of 2.64 billion USD;

It is worth noting that among the 9 ETH ETFs yesterday, none had a net inflow of funds;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is 17.34 billion USD, accounting for 5.09% of the total Ethereum market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.62 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

QCP Capital: The Federal Reserve signals a cautious interest rate cut, and the market enters a year-end period of 'cautious confidence'.

According to the latest analysis from QCP Capital, as the path of U.S. policy interest rates stabilizes and the Federal Reserve signals a cautious interest rate cut, the year-end market is swaying between caution and confidence.

The FOMC decision-making body emphasizes that considering recent economic indicators are still affected by the distortion effects of the government shutdown, the future path of policy interest rates will strictly depend on economic data, aiming to stabilize employment and control inflation.

According to the latest interest rate dot plot, the median interest rate for the next meeting is expected to remain in the range of 3.25%-3.5%, while the forecast for the 2026 interest rate path is more subdued than previous market expectations, with the market currently expecting about 2.3 rate cuts in the coming year.

Although non-farm data is performing reasonably well, it has not changed the overall policy expectations, and market attention is now turning to the upcoming CPI data. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's recent $40 billion bond purchase operation has alleviated short-term funding pressure, providing marginal liquidity support to the market.

In this macro scenario, the performance of the stock market, particularly the artificial intelligence sector, has become a key variable. Currently, capital is continuously flowing into AI infrastructure, but related revenue growth has not kept pace. If this ongoing disconnect between investment and profits continues, it may trigger a valuation adjustment from the AI sector to the overall market. As a core driving force of the market this year, the evolution of the AI field may directly impact the market direction next year.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is also facing new structural risk challenges. MSCI is reviewing the index eligibility of digital asset companies, which may exclude companies with cryptocurrency exposure exceeding 50%, potentially leading to up to $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows. Although relevant institutions have proposed response plans, the final policy is expected to be clarified by February next year.

In addition, Japan's recent revisions to the Payment Services Act and the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act have established clearer institutional regulations for digital assets. This somewhat conservative regulatory path towards securitization lays the groundwork for future institutional capital participation.

Overall, while the market maintains superficial stability, the resilience foundation remains weak, and the balance and interplay between risk resistance and inherent fragility will continue to shape the entire industry landscape.

#美联储议息 #利率路径

Robinhood CEO predicts: The cryptocurrency prediction market will usher in a 'super cycle'

Recently, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev publicly stated that with the popularity of cryptocurrencies, blockchain-based prediction markets are experiencing explosive growth opportunities and may enter a long-term 'super cycle'.

In a recent interview video on social media platform X, Tenev pointed out that although the prediction market has gained attention recently, its development is still in its early stages. He predicts that as this market's super cycle progresses, we will see continued growth in adoption and trading volume, potentially achieving a trading scale of hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

His remarks reflect that the prediction market is evolving from a marginal cryptocurrency experiment into a mature financial tool for betting and price discovery on elections, sports, the economy, and even token prices. Among them, the platform Polymarket, which settles in stablecoins and is open and transparent on-chain, is also seen as a pioneer in this field.

Additionally, many users from the cryptocurrency community among market participants agree with Tenev's judgment, indicating that this could even become a catalyst for driving altcoin markets.

Industry moves also confirm this trend, as the decentralized trading platform PancakeSwap recently announced it will launch a zero-fee prediction market called Probable on the BNB chain, further expanding this sector.

The increasing attractiveness of the prediction market is also related to the credibility it is gradually establishing. Research shows that Polymarket's prediction accuracy exceeds 90% over multiple time periods, which further encourages traders and institutions to view it as a reliable information reference rather than merely a speculative tool.

Moreover, capital and major players are accelerating their entry. In June of this year, the prediction platform Kalshi completed a $185 million financing led by Paradigm; the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also reached a multi-billion dollar investment and data collaboration with Polymarket. In addition, Crypto.com and Trump Media, among other institutions, also plan to integrate prediction market functions into their social platforms.

Overall, this series of market trends indicates that blockchain-based prediction markets are moving from marginal experiments to mainstream financial applications. In the future, this field is expected to become a key bridge connecting the cryptocurrency world with traditional finance, thus accelerating the realization of the grand vision of integrating cryptocurrency technology with traditional finance.

#预测市场

Will Bitcoin Collapse Before the Dollar? Schiff Warns That the Surge in Gold and Silver Impacts Bitcoin's 'Safe Haven Properties'

Recently, renowned economist and long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff posted on X, warning that Bitcoin could be one of the first assets to collapse before a dollar crash occurs, possibly even ahead of the dollar's collapse.

Schiff pointed out that as gold and silver prices continue to rise (gold surpassing $4,300 per ounce and silver exceeding $66 per ounce), Bitcoin may become the primary victim, indicating that investors tend to trust precious metals more in times of economic uncertainty.

He also believes that the notion of Bitcoin as a 'hedge against dollar depreciation' is losing its persuasive power, emphasizing that viewing Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset in a crisis is akin to 'going from the wolf's den to another wolf's den.'

Notably, Schiff has long questioned Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold,' and has recently stated multiple times that Bitcoin has entered a bear market, even predicting that its price is about to collapse.

However, the cryptocurrency community has offered differing views. Entrepreneur Daniel Tschinkel responded by stating that historically, no fiat currency has been able to survive permanently, and the dollar is no exception.

He pointed out that Bitcoin's core goal is not to replace gold, but to facilitate more convenient value transfer and acquisition, emphasizing that people should focus on the long-term trend of diminishing trust in fiat currencies rather than Bitcoin's short-term fluctuations.

Another community member commented that Bitcoin has become more resilient after undergoing multiple 'death' predictions. They believe that gold and silver are mainly used to protect purchasing power, while Bitcoin focuses on 'protecting sovereignty.'

However, in a crisis, investors may adjust their asset allocations in different orders, which does not signify Bitcoin's failure, but rather reflects normal market behavior.

In summary, the debate over whether Bitcoin has safe-haven properties centers on the differences in the time dimensions of consensus formation. Gold's safe-haven status has been solidified over thousands of years, while Bitcoin's trust system is still undergoing the test of time amid global market fluctuations.

What is more likely to emerge in the future is not a single result of one replacing the other, but a more resilient multi-asset defense system formed collaboratively across different risk dimensions and time cycles.

#比特币 #黄金

The FDIC in the United States has launched a 60-day public comment period for a proposal regarding stablecoin issuance regulations.

Recently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) initiated a 60-day public comment period to evaluate its proposal regarding the processing rules for regulated banks submitting stablecoin issuance applications.

Currently, the proposal has been approved by the board, establishing a clear application, review, and appeal process for regulated banks to issue stablecoins through subsidiaries.

If the proposal successfully passes the consultation, it would signify the formal transition of the principles outlined for stablecoin issuers in the previously passed "Guidance and Establishment of the U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation Act" (the "GENIUS Act") by Congress into actionable federal regulatory guidelines.

Reports indicate that this proposal is led by FDIC Acting Chair and nominee for the next chair, Travis Hill. The proposal will establish an application acceptance procedure and complete the review within a 120-day approval period, while also providing an appeal avenue for rejected applications from banks.

According to the proposal's requirements, banks intending to issue stablecoins must submit detailed applications explaining their business plans, financial conditions, and risk control measures.

The FDIC will evaluate their "safety and soundness" based on this and set up an appeal channel for rejected applications. Hill emphasized that this process aims to balance prudent regulation and market efficiency.

Additionally, the proposal requires federal and state agencies to jointly oversee stablecoin operations, with the ultimate goal of advancing the practical implementation of the GENIUS Act. According to the GENIUS Act, these rules must be finalized before July 2026 and take effect in January 2027.

Furthermore, as the regulatory framework for U.S. stablecoins and tokenized deposits, being developed by the OCC, FDIC, and the Federal Reserve, matures, the relevant policies in the cryptocurrency sector have transitioned from the discussion phase to substantial implementation.

In summary, the FDIC's proposal and the launch of the public comment period mark an important step for the United States in terms of stablecoin issuance regulations and lay a foundation for the future development of the cryptocurrency market.

#美国FDIC #稳定币发行规则

The US BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, with a total net outflow exceeding 500 million US dollars on Tuesday.

On December 17, according to SoSovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 277 million US dollars yesterday, marking two consecutive days of total fund outflows.

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT topped the net outflows yesterday with nearly 211 million US dollars (approximately 2,410 BTC), and the current cumulative net inflow for IBIT is 62.52 billion US dollars;

Following that are Bitwise BITB and VanEck HODL, which saw net outflows of 50.93 million US dollars (581.48 BTC) and 17.96 million US dollars (205.05 BTC) respectively yesterday;

Notably, Ark 21Shares ARKB and Grayscale BTC recorded single-day net outflows of 16.87 million US dollars (192.59 BTC) and 7.37 million US dollars (84.09 BTC) respectively;

It is worth noting that Fidelity's FBTC was the only BTC ETF that saw net inflows yesterday, with 26.72 million US dollars (305.07 BTC), and the current cumulative net inflow for FBTC is 11.97 billion US dollars;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 114.28 billion US dollars, accounting for 6.54% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.27 billion US dollars.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 224 million US dollars, marking four consecutive days of total fund outflows. Among the 9 ETH ETFs yesterday, none had net inflows;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had the highest net outflow yesterday at 221 million US dollars (approximately 74,970 ETH), and the current cumulative net inflow for ETHA is 12.87 billion US dollars;

Next is Fidelity's FETH, which had a net outflow of 2.94 million US dollars (997.64 ETH) yesterday, and the current cumulative net inflow for FETH is 2.64 billion US dollars;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 18.17 billion US dollars, accounting for 5.11% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.64 billion US dollars.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

10x Research Alert: The current seemingly stable market structure may be brewing a destructive trend reversal

On December 17, research institution 10x Research released an analysis indicating that although the market is generally optimistic about the prospects for 2026, several key macro and market indicators have begun to emit conflicting signals. These divergences suggest that the current seemingly stable market structure may be brewing a destructive trend reversal.

Firstly, the synchronicity among the macro variables supporting the market previously (such as inflation trends, labor market trends, and interest rate expectations) is disappearing, presenting a trend of differentiation and even divergence. This trend indicates that the market is transitioning from a phase driven by a clear and consistent narrative to a 'grey area' of data games.

Meanwhile, the internal structure of the market has released clear warning signals. Data shows that the leading sectors of major asset classes are continuously narrowing, with upward momentum becoming increasingly concentrated rather than diffuse. This is a typical sign of overall weakening momentum.

Additionally, the long-term low volatility of the market is difficult to maintain, and the recent volatility has transmitted from Bitcoin to other risk assets, further aggravating market concerns about future trends.

In summary, the current market is at a critical juncture of setting aside grand narratives and focusing on underlying data. Investors need to cautiously assess whether these conflicting signals indicate a healthy moderate slowdown or a destructive trend reversal.

The machine also cited its precise warning from the end of October as an example and suggested that the market seriously consider whether to continue following the mainstream optimistic sentiment or to turn to a more defensive posture in advance.

Overall, the report believes that investors’ outlook for 2026 must be based on independent and cautious analysis of the divergent data, rather than merely relying on superficial optimistic rhetoric.

#数据信号 #风险提示

Report: 45% of young investors in the United States hold cryptocurrency, while only 18% of older groups

According to the "2025 Q4 Cryptocurrency Industry Status" report released by Coinbase on December 16, the penetration rate of cryptocurrency among U.S. investors shows a significant generational difference and is rapidly becoming a mainstream investment option for the younger generation.

The report shows that as many as 45% of young investors in the United States currently hold cryptocurrency. In contrast, this percentage is only 18% among older investors, with a gap of more than two times between the two groups.

This data clearly outlines a generational divide, indicating that cryptocurrency, as an emerging asset class, has varying levels of acceptance and popularity among different age groups.

This difference arises from the fundamentally different perceptions and sources of trust in the financial system between the two generations. The report analysis points out that older investors tend to trust and rely on the traditional, centralized financial system composed of banks, brokers, and other institutions.

In contrast, the younger generation has grown up as "digital natives" in an internet and digital-native environment, and they have a stronger inherent trust and willingness to participate in a programmable cryptocurrency economy driven by code and decentralized networks.

Moreover, for many young people, cryptocurrency is not just an investment tool; it is an important, if not primary, means for them to accumulate wealth and participate in the future digital economy.

This data also reflects that the process of cryptocurrency "mainstreaming" is not occurring synchronously across all demographics, but is advancing along a clear generational trajectory.

Given time, current young cryptocurrency holders will grow to become a substantial wealth force in society, along with the continuous influx of a new generation of young people. This demographic shift will inject long-term incremental users and funds into the cryptocurrency market.

Although short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are inevitable, this profound generational trend is the solid social foundation for the long-term sustainability and continuous expansion of cryptocurrency as an asset class.

In summary, the trends revealed in this report are sufficient to indicate that the popularity of cryptocurrency has transcended mere market speculation, becoming a profound reflection of social change and generational value shifts.

#加密货币 #投资趋势

The competition for the Federal Reserve Chair heats up: Trump will interview current Fed Governor Waller tonight, and the current best candidate landscape is not simply 'one of two'

According to the Wall Street Journal citing informed sources, the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is entering a more open and critical stage.

Reports reveal that former President Donald Trump will interview current Fed Governor Christopher Waller on December 17 (Wednesday) local time.

This move indicates that the candidates for the Fed Chair are not limited to former Governor Kevin Warsh, who has already completed an interview, and economist Kevin Hassett, whom Trump has publicly nominated.

Waller has become a key candidate primarily due to his distinct policy stance. Since this year, he has become one of the main voices within the Fed advocating for interest rate cuts. As early as the Fed's meeting in July, Waller cast the only dissenting vote, arguing that the Fed should start cutting rates at that time.

Waller's multiple arguments for rate cuts have been logically clear and consistent, and have even been partially adopted by current Chair Powell in subsequent communications. Market analysis indicates that Waller, with his clear monetary policy framework and positive reputation among Wall Street and the economist community, is also seen as a potential leader capable of bridging the internal policy divisions of the Fed.

The timing of this interview is quite meaningful, as it is scheduled just before Waller is set to give an important speech on the economic outlook on the evening of December 17 Beijing time. His public statements will undoubtedly serve as a key window for the market to interpret his policy thinking and even his interview performance.

Overall, with Waller joining the competition, the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair has transformed from a simple preference for candidates into a substantive directional choice regarding the future path of U.S. monetary policy.

Whether the candidate for the next Fed Chair finalized by Trump will be a moderate with excellent communication skills and a clear policy stance, or a candidate with other policy inclinations, will have a profound impact on the interest rate environment and market expectations for 2026 and beyond.

#美联储主席 #特朗普

Goldman Sachs predicts: The Federal Reserve may be more aggressive in cutting interest rates next year, with unemployment rate weighting becoming a key reference indicator that exceeds non-farm payrolls.

Recently, Goldman Sachs updated its forecast for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2026, believing that its attitude towards interest rate cuts may be more aggressive than previously expected by the market.

Josh Schiffrin, Chief Strategist of Goldman Sachs' Global Banking and Markets Division, stated that based on the remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the press conference, there is growing concern within the Federal Reserve about the sustainability of the job market.

This concern also implies that even if the Federal Reserve will still take a “wait-and-see approach to data and maintain current policy” as a baseline orientation, the threshold for initiating additional interest rate cuts again has already been lowered compared to the general expectations of the market before this meeting.

In assessing the future direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, Goldman Sachs suggests that the market shift focus to adjusting observation priorities. Schiffrin stated that in the upcoming multiple employment reports, the weighting of unemployment rate data will overshadow the changes in total non-farm employment, becoming the core basis for measuring whether the Federal Reserve will restart the easing cycle.

This shift in observation perspective clearly reflects that policymakers are considering a transition from simply focusing on the growth rate of the job market to placing greater emphasis on the stability and health of the labor market.

Based on the judgment that inflation will continue to show moderate trends and that the degree of labor market slack may further rise, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve's easing cycle to continue until 2026, until the federal funds target rate falls to 3% or even lower levels.

Overall, Goldman Sachs' forecast is more dovish than the mainstream views in the market. If inflationary pressures continue to ease and the job market shows signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve will gain sufficient policy space and willingness to act, gradually lifting the remaining policy restrictions against inflation and thus shifting towards a dovish stance to solidify economic growth.

#高盛 #美联储

Tom Lee: Wall Street interests and clear regulations will unleash 200 times growth potential for the crypto market

Recently, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee gave an extremely optimistic assessment of the future potential of the cryptocurrency market during a media interview.

He believes that the "best times for cryptocurrency have yet to come," and that the current market size is merely a tiny starting point for its future potential.

Tom Lee's core argument is based on astonishing user growth potential. He pointed out that currently, only 4 million Bitcoin wallet addresses hold assets over $10,000;

Globally, there are about 900 million retirement and brokerage accounts, and if each account holds an average of about $10,000 in investable assets, the size of the cryptocurrency market could potentially expand to 200 times its current scale.

This also means that if massive funds from the traditional financial sector gradually begin to invest in crypto assets, it could trigger an unprecedented influx of capital.

Tom Lee emphasized that, in addition to the potential user base, multiple real-world factors also support this optimistic outlook. Despite significant volatility in the crypto market in October and November due to deleveraging events, accompanied by brief concerns about long-term technological issues like quantum computing, he believes the industry fundamentals are gradually stabilizing.

It is worth noting that the U.S. government has passed crypto-friendly legislation and established a clear regulatory framework, clearing core obstacles for traditional financial institutions like Wall Street to develop and issue compliant financial products in the blockchain space.

This clear regulatory framework, along with the deep involvement of mainstream financial institutions, also provides unprecedented certainty and predictability for the industry's long-term development.

Tom Lee ultimately concludes that the future direction and prospects of the industry are already very clear, and its growth trajectory is highly predictable.

However, he cautiously reminds investors that the clarification of industry fundamentals and the short-term price movements of specific tokens are not a simple linear relationship; the latter is still influenced by market sentiment, liquidity, and speculative activities, leading to uncertainties.

Overall, his viewpoint outlines a broad potential space and developmental context, indicating that the cryptocurrency market is shifting from potential release to the foundational consolidation of industry evolution.

#TomLee #比特币

Analyst Prediction: Federal Reserve Policy Shift and U.S. Midterm Elections May Boost BTC to Reach $600,000 Next Year

Although Bitcoin prices have recently fluctuated narrowly around $90,000, market focus has begun to shift from short-term volatility to the outlook for 2026.

According to several market analysts, driven by the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin prices could reach a range of $300,000 to $600,000 in 2026.

Analyst Wise Crypto believes that macro factors such as the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening (QT), the U.S. Treasury issuing short-term bonds to supplement market liquidity, and potential policy benefits from the 2026 U.S. midterm elections may strengthen cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.

Additionally, weak labor market data could force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, injecting more liquidity into the market.

Apart from monetary policy, another core variable is the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 2026, the results of which will directly determine whether expected crypto-friendly legislation can be smoothly advanced.

Therefore, this midterm election is also seen as a key policy catalyst that can resonate with accommodative monetary policy and amplify market trends.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe points out through the analysis of short-term key technical levels that Bitcoin is currently at a critical resistance level near $90,000. If it can rise to the $92,000-$94,000 range this week, it will significantly increase the likelihood of breaking through $100,000; however, if the resistance level fails to hold, a deep correction is likely to be triggered.

According to a poll result from crypto giant Titan of Crypto, only 43% of respondents are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 mark before 2026, while nearly 57% of respondents hold a negative view.

In summary, the $600,000 Bitcoin price prediction is essentially a long-term projection of a future extremely favorable scenario. Whether this long-term goal can be successfully realized depends on whether macro liquidity release and a crypto-friendly political landscape can be achieved simultaneously next year.

Overall, the analysts' optimistic predictions reinforce the market's expectations for a rise in crypto assets next year, but actual market trends are still influenced by multiple uncertainties; therefore, investors need to rationally differentiate between expectations and reality.

#比特币 #市场分析

The U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced a net outflow, with a total cumulative net outflow of nearly 583 million USD on Monday.

On December 16, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of nearly 358 million USD yesterday, marking the first day of total net outflow this week. Moreover, none of the 12 BTC ETFs had any net inflow yesterday;

Among them, Fidelity FBTC had the highest net outflow of 230 million USD (approximately 2,680 BTC) yesterday, with a cumulative net inflow of 11.94 billion USD for FBTC;

Next were Bitwise BITB and Ark 21Shares ARKB, which recorded net outflows of 44.32 million USD (516.27 BTC) and 34.49 million USD (401.78 BTC) respectively yesterday;

Grayscale GBTC and VanEck HODL recorded single-day net outflows of 27.51 million USD (320.40 BTC) and 21.25 million USD (247.47 BTC) respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at 112.27 billion USD, accounting for 6.56% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.55 billion USD.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded nearly 225 million USD, also marking three consecutive days of total net outflow.

Among them, BlackRock ETHA had the highest net outflow of 139 million USD (approximately 47,460 ETH) yesterday, with a cumulative net inflow of 13.09 billion USD for ETHA;

Next were Grayscale's ETHE and ETH, which recorded single-day net outflows of 35.10 million USD (approximately 11,980 ETH) and 20.18 million USD (approximately 6,890 ETH) respectively;

Bitwise ETHW, Fidelity FETH, and VanEck ETHV recorded net outflows of 13.01 million USD (approximately 4,440 ETH), 10.96 million USD (approximately 3,740 ETH), and 6.43 million USD (approximately 2,190 ETH) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETFs stands at 18.27 billion USD, accounting for 5.17% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.86 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Warning! North Korean hackers are using fake Zoom/Teams meeting links to steal acquaintances' accounts and carry out large-scale fraud.

Recently, the cybersecurity company Security Alliance (SEAL) and researchers issued a warning that North Korean hackers are exploiting fake Zoom/Teams meeting links to spread malware in order to steal victims' cryptocurrency wallet private keys, mnemonics, various passwords, cloud credentials, and Telegram accounts.

Currently, the agency is tracking associated threat actors who attempt multiple times daily to use fake Zoom/Teams meeting links to spread malware and expand access to new victims, resulting in over $300 million in financial losses.

Analysis indicates that the hackers' attack entry points are highly deceptive. They first completely take control of the victim's acquaintance's Telegram account and then use that account to send messages to the victim.

Once the victim enters the meeting, the hacker plays pre-obtained real video to fabricate the appearance of participants, and then uses excuses such as "audio issues" and "software updates" to induce the victim to download a malicious file disguised as "Zoom SDK update."

Once this file is installed, it will immediately invade the device, stealing the victim's cryptocurrency wallet private keys, various account passwords, cloud service login information, and even directly take over the entire Telegram account, capturing all its digital assets and permissions.

It is worth noting that this type of scam, which induces downloads through fake meetings, closely matches the modus operandi of the North Korean-backed Lazarus hacker organization.

Security experts particularly emphasize that these highly customized social engineering attacks often bypass conventional technical defenses, and personal vigilance is the last line of defense.

Moreover, industry leaders, including the founder of Binance, have issued related warnings over the past year, indicating that such attacks have become a systemic threat to the cryptocurrency industry.

Overall, if users accidentally click on a suspicious link, they should immediately initiate the highest level of response measures, disconnect from the network, and shut down and isolate the infected device;

Then, they should immediately transfer funds through other secure devices, batch change all account passwords; and absolutely do not use the device again before completely reinstalling the system to prevent further losses.

#网络安全 #朝鲜黑客

Grayscale Report: Quantum Computing Threats are Misleading the Cryptocurrency Market, Quantum Attacks Difficult to Crack Bitcoin Before 2030

According to Grayscale's latest report titled "2026 Digital Asset Outlook", there is widespread concern in the market that quantum computing could pose a threat to the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but this concern is actually misleading.

The report points out that while there is indeed a long-term threat from quantum computing from a cryptographic perspective, the likelihood of this technology having a substantive impact on the cryptocurrency market or affecting asset valuations by 2026 is extremely low.

According to Grayscale analysts citing assessments from several authoritative institutions, including the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), quantum computers capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin are not expected to emerge until around 2030 at the earliest. However, this timeline far exceeds the market's usual pricing cycle, thereby alleviating concerns about the imminent threat of quantum computing to the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Moreover, the report acknowledges that research, testing, and preparations for post-quantum cryptography are ongoing. It is expected that most blockchain networks will need to undergo corresponding upgrades in response to long-term challenges. However, these upgrades belong to a long-term technological evolution path rather than an immediate market risk.

The conclusion of this report aligns with the views of many developers in the fields of cryptography and blockchain, namely that while quantum computers possess the capability to undermine cryptography, this threat is still a topic of "years away" rather than an "immediate" threat. Grayscale's statement also alleviates the concerns of the investor community served by its large cryptocurrency asset management business.

In summary, Grayscale's report defines quantum risks as an important long-term technical issue rather than a short-term market variable. This positioning aims to guide the market to focus on macro liquidity, regulatory progress, and application implementation—factors that are more likely to influence price trends in 2026. This perspective also provides investors with a comprehensive and balanced view for assessing future trends in the cryptocurrency market.

#灰度 #量子计算

Digital asset ETP saw a total net inflow of $864 million last week, but capital flows displayed an uneven characteristic.

According to Coinshares weekly report, global digital asset investment products have recorded net inflows for the third consecutive week, totaling $864 million, reflecting that while market sentiment remains cautious, optimism is steadily accumulating.

Meanwhile, despite the Federal Reserve recently initiating interest rate cuts, market performance remains sluggish. In the days following the rate cuts, market sentiment has fluctuated significantly, and capital flows have shown a clear uneven characteristic.

In terms of asset classes, Bitcoin remains the primary target for inflows, with $522 million flowing in last week. However, there has been a continuous small outflow in short-selling Bitcoin, indicating that market pessimistic bets are decreasing.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's year-to-date (YTD) inflow amounts to about $27.7 billion, while it is expected to reach $41 billion in 2024, indicating that Bitcoin's market performance this year is still relatively lagging.

Ethereum recorded an inflow of $338 million last week, bringing its YTD inflow to $13.3 billion, a 148% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Meanwhile, Solana's YTD inflow stands at $3.5 billion, which is still ten times higher than the same period in 2024.

In stark contrast, Hyperliquid showed a significant outflow of $14.1 million, indicating that the selective divergence of capital among different projects is also increasing.

From a national regional distribution perspective, the U.S. market sentiment is the strongest, with inflows reaching $796 million last week, while Germany and Canada saw inflows of $68.6 million and $26.8 million, respectively.

Notably, these three countries have been the main sources of inflows this year, accounting for 98.6% of the total inflow amount year-to-date (YTD).

In summary, from a macro perspective, although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, the market price reaction has been weak, showing that capital's response to favorable policies has become more rational;

However, from the asset class perspective, capital is being allocated with a clearer and more selective logic, continuously flowing towards core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as a few fundamentally strong altcoins.

Additionally, the continuous inflow over three weeks indicates that market confidence is gradually recovering and building a more solid and differentiated bottom foundation after a long period of stagnation.

#加密货币ETP #投资趋势

The key index for small-cap crypto tokens has fallen to a four-year low, completely shattering the myth of the 'altcoin season' cycle?

According to MarketVector DA, which tracks the 50 smallest crypto tokens in a portfolio of 100 assets, this index has fallen to its lowest point in four years as of November 2025, directly declaring the long-awaited 'altcoin season' in the market has completely shattered.

In contrast, Bitcoin's market dominance (i.e., its market cap as a proportion of the total crypto market value) has risen to nearly 59%, approaching its highest level since April 2022.

This stark contrast clearly reveals the core characteristic of the current cryptocurrency market: funds are continuously fleeing from high-risk small projects and accelerating towards other 'core assets,' including BTC, which is often referred to as 'digital gold.'

The reason for this situation is primarily due to the systematic depletion of market liquidity in the current macro environment, combined with the approaching Christmas and New Year, leading to a decrease in overall activity in global financial markets.

In such a macro environment, the highest-risk and least liquid small-cap tokens have become the primary reason for investors to reduce holdings in favor of investments with better liquidity.

Secondly, the narrative-driven logic of the entire crypto market has undergone a fundamental shift. In the past few cycles, altcoins leveraged the external narrative of 'Bitcoin treasury companies' to achieve a correlation between stock prices and token prices. However, the business models of such companies are now facing widespread skepticism, compounded by the recent halving of stock prices, rendering this key external catalyst completely ineffective.

Overall, the market is transitioning from a speculative boom phase driven by excessive liquidity and a single grand narrative to a new development stage dominated by macro liquidity conditions, project fundamentals, and genuine usage demand.

For altcoins, this deep market correction is essentially a brutal market clearing, as it not only washes away speculative targets lacking value support but also squeezes out market speculation bubbles.

Although this process is filled with growing pains, it clears the way for the next cycle of truly innovative projects with technological barriers, real application demands, and commercial value, re-establishing the foundation for the healthy development of the crypto market.

#山寨币季