奔跑财经-FinaceRun

Under political pressure? IMF drops a top hot prospect for chief economist

On September 10, citing sources familiar with the matter, the Financial Times of the UK reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) originally planned to appoint Ricardo Reis, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, as its chief economist. However, before the formal announcement, it temporarily shelved the selection. The core reason was that the professor had previously made public remarks criticizing President Trump’s tariff policies.

Specifically, Reis had publicly said that the high cost of the Trump administration’s tariffs would be borne mainly by U.S. consumers, would accelerate inflation, and might make domestic production in the U.S. more expensive and less efficient.

However, the IMF ultimately settled in July on Silvana Tenreyro, a former official of the Bank of England, to take the role of IMF chief economist. Ironically, Ricardo Reis had been the top hot candidate for the post, and the related appointment had been close to finalized.

In sum, the IMF chief economist position is a core academic role responsible for providing professional assessments of the global economy. When a top hot candidate is unexpectedly ruled out, it is hard to avoid questions from the outside about whether the selection process is influenced by political factors, and whether the institution can truly achieve professional independence and objective credibility.

If the expression of a candidate’s personal professional stance begins to become a negative yardstick for selecting the role, the tendency ultimately erodes the independence and objectivity of the institution’s entire decision-making. The subsequent direction of its policies and their industry impact are therefore worth continued attention and reflection by the international community.

#IMF放弃首席经济学家热门候选人

BTC spot ETF saw a total net outflow of $120 million on Wednesday, while the ETH ETF recorded a daily total net outflow of $34.75 million

On September 10, according to SoSovalue data, the US BTC spot ETFs yesterday recorded a net outflow of $120 million, marking two consecutive days of total net outflows;

Among them, Ark & 21Shares ARKB, Grayscale (GBTC), and BlackRock IBIT recorded daily net outflows of $77.98 million (994.71 BTC), $27.22 million (347.20 BTC), and $19.53 million (249.11 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT recorded a net inflow of $4.49 million (57.28 BTC), becoming the only BTC ETF to see a net inflow yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $99.33 billion, accounting for 6.31% of Bitcoin’s total market value. Cumulatively, total net inflows amount to $55.45 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $34.75 million, marking the first day of total net inflows since this week;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHB ranked first in yesterday’s net inflow table with $22.94 million (about 9,260 ETH). ETHB’s cumulative net inflows currently stand at $798 million;

Second were BlackRock’s ETHA and 21Shares’ TETH, which recorded daily net inflows of $9.71 million (about 3,920 ETH) and $2.10 million (845.51 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $15.69 billion, accounting for 5.20% of Ethereum’s total market value. Cumulatively, total net inflows amount to $13.20 billion.

Among other all-category crypto ETFs, except for HYPE which recorded a total net outflow of $5.29 million on the day, the XRP, SOL, and LINK ETFs recorded total net inflows of $12.29 million, $11.73 million, and $1.09 million, respectively;

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The Fed’s megaphone: A 0.1 percentage-point gap in Friday’s CPI could determine whether it hikes in September

On September 10, this Friday (20:30 Beijing time), the U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the resident consumer price index may directly affect the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision next week.

According to analysis by Nick Timiraos, chief economic reporter for The Wall Street Journal, whether August core inflation’s month-on-month figure lands at 0.2% or 0.3%—a seemingly small difference of 0.1 percentage point—could nevertheless determine the Fed’s policy choice: whether to hold steady or to start raising rates.

On the direction of subsequent policy, there are currently clear divisions within the Fed. Throughout the summer so far, officials have been debating whether current interest rates are already high enough to bring inflation back down to the 2% target.

And with the June and July data previously showing some cooling, this Friday’s August CPI data will further test whether the improvement is truly a trend reversal—or just another brief reprieve after five consecutive years of inflation running above the target.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, current market expectations put the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at about 60%, whereas before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, that probability was only 35%.

At this meeting, Warsh said that credit conditions have not yet suppressed the economy, and that the summer slowdown in inflation is not enough to confirm a downward trend. His comments have been interpreted by the market as leaning hawkish.

Analysts noted that if this CPI data is clearly weak, decision-making will be relatively straightforward. This would support the Fed staff’s earlier assessment that monthly inflation readings will ultimately slow to a level consistent with the 2% inflation target.

Conversely, if the data significantly strengthens, it would imply that the summer improvement in inflation did not continue. In that case, the policy space for the Fed to keep rates unchanged would be sharply compressed.

At present, the biggest test for the Fed’s capabilities is whether August CPI shows a neutral outcome. If the inflation figures ease moderately—which allows the central bank to continue observing—yet still fails to persuade market participants who are betting on a rate hike, the Fed would need to explain to the market why it is choosing not to raise rates.

For this reason, at the Jackson Hole meeting, Warsh emphasized the overall discipline of monetary policy rather than fixating on rate adjustments at a single meeting, laying the groundwork for the policy logic in advance and stabilizing market expectations.

#美联储 #CPI数据

Hardware wallet Trezor suffers security vulnerability at a third-party email service provider; users must be vigilant against phishing attacks

On September 10, according to PeckShieldAlert’s latest post, hardware wallet manufacturer Trezor today issued a security warning stating that its third-party email service provider has experienced a security vulnerability, putting users at risk of phishing attacks.

Blockchain security firm PeckShield monitoring found that a phishing email with the subject “Critical Security Alert: STM32 Entropy Vulnerability” is currently spreading. The email forges the sender address as help@trezor.io, which is not a legitimate communication from Trezor.

As indicated by the urgent statement shared on social media that it cites, Trezor’s official account clearly states that this email is a phishing attempt and reminds users not to click any links in it.

The company also said that it has taken swift action, removed the relevant domains, and is conducting an in-depth investigation into this security incident. It remains unclear how many users may have been affected and whether any users suffered losses as a result.

Security experts recommend that Trezor users stay highly vigilant. For emails claiming to be from the hardware wallet provider, be sure to verify through official channels and avoid directly clicking links in the email or downloading attachments to reduce the risk of having assets stolen.

#Trezor #钱包钓鱼攻击

World Gold Council: August Global Gold ETF Net Inflows Reached $18 Billion, Setting a Record for the Second-Highest Single-Month Inflow in History

On September 9, the World Gold Council released a report on August gold ETF holdings and fund flows. The report shows that global physically backed gold ETFs recorded total net inflows of $18 billion in August, marking the second-largest single-month inflow on record.

In terms of sources of capital, this large-scale inflow was mainly driven by funds from North America and Europe. Investors in these mature markets demonstrated strong enthusiasm for gold ETFs in August, supporting overall growth in the global gold ETF market.

Analysts noted that, benefiting from robust net inflows alongside rising gold prices, global gold ETF assets under management (AUM) increased by 16% month over month to $615 billion;

Meanwhile, total global gold holdings rose by 121 tonnes to 4,189 tonnes, reaching a new all-time high. In addition, August’s average daily gold market trading volume increased by 21% month over month, indicating a clear recovery in market activity.

By region, North American gold ETFs recorded net inflows of $7.7 billion that month, ranking third-highest in the region’s history. European gold ETFs saw net inflows of $7.9 billion, setting a new record for the highest level in the region.

At the same time, Asian gold ETFs posted inflows of $2.0 billion during the same period, with China being the main driver of regional capital inflows. From the beginning of the year to date, global gold ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $29 billion, corresponding to an increase of 160 tonnes in holdings.

The report指出 that this round of large inflows into gold ETFs is primarily driven by market concerns about sovereign debt risk, leading investors to view gold as a diversification tool and an alternative to sovereign assets.

Tactical funds and institutional buying continued to pour in during August, jointly boosting demand for gold investment. This helped gold prices rise by more than 10% and break through key resistance levels, underscoring gold’s value as a safe-haven allocation under current market conditions.

#世界黄金协会

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin rebounds to $78,450, large holders have not yet集中 to transfer coins for selling

On September 9, CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu noted that although Bitcoin has rebounded from the summer low near $60,000 to a closing price of $78,450 on September 8, large exchange deposits have not surged in tandem.

Specifically, on September 8, the daily inflow to the TOP10 exchanges reached 5,442 Bitcoins, up 4.4x month-over-month from the previous day. However, it is only 5.1% higher than the 30-day average. The 7-day average inflow was 4,678 Bitcoins, which is also below the intra-year peak.

The analyst pointed out that during this round of price increase, there was no unusual whale deposit activity. This implies that large holders have not transferred coins to exchanges on a large scale in preparation for selling, which strongly suggests that sustained sell pressure is not evident.

The key signals the market needs to watch next are: if the 7-day average large deposit activity at exchanges continues to rise while the Bitcoin price weakens, it would indicate that whales are distributing (selling) into the market.

In conclusion, the analysis states that the uptick in exchange large deposits on September 8 is more likely a return of the market to normal conditions rather than an abnormal capital movement, and it does not yet constitute a signal of centralized selling by large holders.

#BTC持仓动向

Iran eases foreign exchange controls, tacitly allows companies to use bitcoin and USDT for cross-border trade settlement

September 9, according to overseas media market reports, the Central Bank of Iran has recently loosened some foreign exchange restrictions and tacitly allowed domestic exporters to use crypto assets such as bitcoin and USDT to complete cross-border trade settlement.

The report says the country has relaxed controls related to the repatriation of foreign exchange and the official exchange rate, encouraging businesses to channel overseas funds back into the country through various means, in order to offset obstacles to trade settlement caused by US sanctions.

In addition, on-chain data firm TRM Labs statistics show that in 2025, the volume of crypto assets transferred through Iran was close to $10 billion. This scale also provides Iranian businesses with an alternative option to bypass the SWIFT system.

Due to long-term sanctions, Iran has been cut off from traditional global payment systems, and the advantages of this alternative tool—cryptocurrency—have gradually become more apparent. This situation may further encourage more sanctioned economies to explore similar paths of financial innovation.

This policy adjustment not only reflects how sanctioned entities, faced with the real-world difficulties of obstructed cross-border financial channels, are forced to use cryptocurrencies as an effective way to bypass the SWIFT system and sustain foreign trade.

In terms of real-world effects, this move can ease pressure on local businesses to repatriate overseas funds, while also providing a practical reference sample for other sanctioned economies.

Overall, although the cross-border movement of crypto assets provides Iran with an economic buffer space, it also increases the difficulty of enforcing global financial regulation. It also plants potential hidden risks in the areas of anti–money laundering and sanctions compliance.

As for how the international community views and responds to this new settlement model, and how subsequent global market regulatory policies and pathways will develop, these are still worth ongoing public attention.

#伊朗放宽外汇管制

BTC and ETH spot ETFs recorded net outflows on Tuesday, with a total net outflow of $70.84 million

September 9, according to SoSovalue data, US BTC spot ETFs saw yesterday a total net outflow of $46.65 million, marking the first day of net outflows since this week;

Among them, Grayscale (Grayscale) GBTC, Fidelity (Fidelity) FBTC, and Invesco BTCO recorded daily net outflows of $65.51 million (835.41 BTC), $17.05 million (217.47 BTC), and $4.68 million (59.69 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Bitwise BITB and BlackRock IBIT recorded daily net inflows of $14.47 million (184.49 BTC) and $10.66 million (135.88 BTC), respectively;

Ark & 21Shares ARKB and Morgan Stanley MSBT recorded daily net inflows of $8.06 million (102.78 BTC) and $7.41 million (94.55 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of BTC spot ETFs is $99.52 billion, accounting for 6.31% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of $55.57 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a first-day total net outflow since this week, with $24.29 million;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA and Grayscale’s ETHE recorded daily net outflows of $24.61 million (about 9,910 ETH) and $9.57 million (about 3,850 ETH), respectively;

Fidelity’s FETH, however, became the only ETH ETF with a daily net inflow of $9.89 million (about 3,980 ETH).

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $15.72 billion, accounting for 5.19% of Ethereum’s total market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of $13.17 billion.

In other crypto ETF categories, although XRP and HBAR ETFs recorded total daily net inflows of $1.55 million and $0.43 million, respectively;

HYPE and SOL ETFs, however, recorded total daily net outflows of $12.96 million and nearly $0.67 million, respectively.

#加密货币ETF

BlackRock Warning: The Bank of Japan Accelerating Rate Hikes Could Lift Global Bond Yields

On September 9, BlackRock issued a warning in a research report. It said that if the Bank of Japan quickens the pace of rate hikes, it could prompt Japanese investors to bring overseas funds back home in search of higher returns, thereby pushing up global bond yields.

In the report, Wei Li, a strategy expert in BlackRock’s research department, emphasized that if such cross-border spillover effects are indeed real, there is a risk that the bond market could develop into a negative feedback loop.

The research notes that over the past several decades, with Japan’s domestic yields having remained at extremely low levels for a long time, Japanese investors have put large sums into overseas markets to seek higher returns.

However, as Japanese interest rates gradually rise, this pattern of capital flows may reverse. BlackRock believes the sizable risk-free returns currently offered by Japan may cause some overseas funds to start flowing back to Japan’s domestic market.

Despite inflation continuing to climb and requiring Japan to tighten monetary policy, the reality that government spending is expanding and the scale of public debt exceeds twice GDP means the fiscal cost of rate hikes is rising substantially.

In addition, continued accommodative policy would also weigh on the yen. Once the yen weakens significantly, if Japan’s authorities sell overseas assets such as U.S. Treasuries to stabilize the exchange rate, it would further intensify upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields.

Wei Li analysis pointed out that, given the clear linkage and transmission effects between U.S. and Japan’s monetary policy rates: specifically, rising U.S. rates would continue to suppress the yen exchange rate, forcing the Bank of Japan to accelerate its rate-hike schedule;

and higher Japanese rates would attract overseas funds back, reducing the market’s demand for U.S. Treasuries, which in turn would raise the United States’ overall financing costs—thereby creating a self-reinforcing cycle of interdependence in the U.S.-Japan market.

In summary, this analysis not only reveals the cross-market linkage logic of the global bond market, but also highlights that policy adjustments by major central banks have very strong spillover effects. Changes in their policies can, through capital flows and exchange-rate transmission, have a far-reaching impact on global financial markets.

#债券收益率

Reuters: U.S. Treasuries are shunned, but market operations remain normal; the 10-year bond return hits a century-low

On September 9, according to a Reuters column published on Tuesday, the size of U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, the fiscal deficit as a share of GDP has reached 6%, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is approaching 5%, and market sentiment toward the outlook for U.S. Treasuries is generally pessimistic. However, based on various indicators, the bond market overall is still functioning normally in line with fundamentals.

The article analyzes that the United States’ nominal economic growth is about 6%, unemployment remains at 4.1%, employment is close to full capacity, and inflation has been above the Federal Reserve’s 2% policy target for nearly six consecutive years.

Meanwhile, combined with the investment boom in the AI industry and the continued expansion of the fiscal deficit, investors demand higher risk compensation, making this growth rate realistically reasonable.

Data also show that over the past decade, the rolling return on long-term U.S. Treasuries with maturities of more than 15 years was -2%, the worst performance in more than 100 years, standing in sharp contrast with the S&P 15% and 11% annualized returns for commodities over the same period.

However, the MOVE index, which represents bond-market volatility, is below the average level in recent years. Overseas central banks also appear to be reducing holdings of U.S. Treasuries in a gradual pace, suggesting the market has not seen any clear panic-driven selling.

In addition, some institutions’ valuation models even suggest that the current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains in a relatively low range, and that the bond market is adapting to a brand-new environment of higher interest rates.

In summary, Reuters’ analysis indicates that although the U.S. Treasury market faces pressure, its operating mechanism remains intact and the market continues to perform normal adjustment functions.

This view provides an important reference point for understanding the current bond-market environment, helping investors make more rational investment decisions amid complex conditions.

#美债长债十年回报创百年低位

Strategy temporarily puts the brakes on its BTC accumulation this week, shifting its capital focus to STRC stock buybacks

After last week’s brief add-on, Strategy has pressed the “pause button” for Bitcoin purchases this week, fully shifting its strategic focus to buybacks of its preferred shares (STRC).

On Tuesday, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced on X that the company has spent $176 million to repurchase STRC and plans to double the buyback size from $1 billion to $2 billion.

Even though it did not continue buying Bitcoin this week, Strategy’s underlying “crypto treasury” base remains solid. Saylor reiterated that the company currently holds 845,050 BTC and $6.5 billion in cash assets.

With Bitcoin’s recent trading price hovering around $78,500—well above the company’s average cost basis of $75,400—this large position has turned profitable overall, with unrealized gains on paper exceeding $2.5 billion.

Notably, last week Strategy bought Bitcoin when the price was above $80,000, but completed the related trades after the price fell to $62,000. This “buy high, sell low” discount-arbitrage maneuver has also sparked widespread discussion in the crypto community.

Strategy’s strong buyback plan this time has indeed had a significant stabilizing effect on STRC. The stock’s theoretically reasonable price is $100, and it had fallen as low as $75 earlier this summer.

As of the close of U.S. stocks this past Tuesday, STRC’s share price has rebounded to nearly $98. It is now just one step away from crossing the $100 theoretical level.

Strategy’s “stand pat” approach this week—turning to its company’s preferred share buybacks in particular—is itself a signal worth pondering. As for whether this is defense or simply building up momentum right now, leave your thoughts in the comments!

#Strategy股票回购

CoinShares: Bitcoin’s trading characteristics are approaching gold; the $80,000 key resistance remains driven by the Fed’s rate-path

According to CoinShares’ weekly report data, last week digital-asset investment products saw net inflows of $100 million, down from $2.9 billion in the prior two weeks (the strongest single-week inflow this year to date) and $2.0 billion in earlier inflows.

Not only that, blockchain equities products also recorded inflows of about $27 million last week. Over the past month, cumulative inflows have exceeded $100 million, indicating that the trend of blending traditional finance with digital assets is accelerating.

Analysts say this flow of funds is closely tied to expectations for Fed policy. After Fed Chair Waller made hawkish remarks last Friday, the market reacted quickly: digital-asset investment products saw roughly $100 million in outflows.

However, as Fed Governor Waller subsequently stepped in to clarify and signaled that interest rates may remain unchanged, market sentiment improved rapidly, and fund flows turned positive again.

CoinShares Research Head James Butterfill believes investors have not left the digital-asset space; instead, current market trading behavior is mainly centered on expectations for Fed rates.

In his view, Bitcoin currently exhibits trading traits similar to gold. Still, the direction of Fed policy continues to limit Bitcoin’s upside potential, and the $80,000 level remains a key resistance barrier at this stage.

#加密资金流向

Uniswap’s Burn Mechanism Keeps Gaining Momentum, with UNI Annualized Burn Amount Surpassing $250 Million

On September 8, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams disclosed via X that the UNI token’s annualized burn amount has strongly broken through the $250 million mark, with the burn volume rising to approximately $263 million.

This data not only highlights the self-regulating economic model of decentralized exchange platforms, but also reflects that the activity level within the UNI ecosystem and the efficiency of value flow are steadily improving.

From market performance, the UNI burn mechanism continues to unleash deflationary momentum. Combined with steady increases in platform trading volume and governance participation, the long-term positive effects of this internally generated value-support system are continuing to become evident.

In summary, as an important piece of infrastructure in the DeFi space, Uniswa p’s trading activity directly drives UNI’s burn volume. In turn, this deflationary mechanism reinforces the token’s scarcity, providing strong support for the healthy development of the ecosystem.

#Uniswap代币销毁

Japan’s July wage growth hits a near-30-year high as the Bank of Japan’s September rate-hike path is largely clear

On September 8, it was reported that driven by strong corporate earnings and tight labor markets, Japan’s nominal wages rose 4.7% year-on-year in July, marking the largest increase since 1997 and well above the market expectation of 3.8%.

Notably, this is already the sixth consecutive month that Japan’s nominal wages have grown by more than 3%, setting the longest growth streak in 34 years.

Meanwhile, after stripping out the impact of rent inflation, Japan’s real wages (adjusted for inflation) increased by 2.4% year-on-year, the highest level in nearly five years;

In addition, base wages rose 4.1% year-on-year. After excluding fluctuations from bonuses and overtime, as well as taking into account statistical sampling bias, employees’ real wages also grew by 2.7%. This suggests that the wage increases are not being driven by short-term bonus boosts, but rather reflect a broad-based rise across the base pay component.

With wage performance exceeding expectations, the market’s view that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy has been further reinforced. The market has fully priced in expectations for a September rate hike by the BOJ, and some traders even bet that the next round of tightening may not be far off.

Overall, the continued upward trend in wage data once again confirms that Japan is forming a positive inflation cycle, and it also provides important real-world support for the BOJ to continue its rate-hike path.

#日本工资数据

OpenAI Chief Scientist Warns: AI May Enter Recursive Self-Improvement, Urges Slowing the Pace to Ensure Industry Safety

On September 8, OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki issued a warning over the weekend. As the pace of AI iteration continues to advance, it is gradually moving beyond human understanding and controllable boundaries. He urged the industry, for safety reasons, to slow down the pace of AI development.

In his article, Pachocki noted that today’s AI models can already independently operate computers, coordinate and collaborate with humans and other AI systems, and carry out research work autonomously.

If development continues at the current pace, AI will soon achieve “recursive self-improvement,” meaning it would complete self-iterative upgrade outside of human intervention.

In his view, society as a whole is not yet sufficiently prepared to handle the various risks arising from the rapid advancement of machine intelligence. Therefore, the industry should maintain a high level of caution toward AI development.

In his view, society is unable to absorb the various risks stemming from the rapid rise in machine intelligence; therefore, the industry should remain highly cautious about AI development.

He also suggested that, before strengthening AI-human alignment technologies and establishing a unified safety threshold, proactively slowing the pace of AI R&D should become a consensus within the industry.

Meanwhile, the rapid development of AI technology has also brought multiple breakthroughs. Among them, OpenAI’s GPT‑6 Astra and Anthropic’s Mythos models both have advanced capabilities, but for safety considerations, both companies have limited the release scope of the aforementioned top-tier models.

Although Pachocki’s remarks echo risk warnings from multiple industry executives, the capital markets are strongly championing the recursive self-improvement track. Several startups have secured large rounds of funding, betting that this path can lead to high-level artificial intelligence.

For example, Inherent, founded by former DeepMind researchers, completed a $50 million funding round; and the Recursive Superintelligence Lab, founded by renowned scientist Richard Socher, secured a massive $650 million in funding.

Taken together, these actions indicate investors’ strong confidence in this field. OpenAI has also previously revealed its R&D goals, planning to build a “true automated AI researcher” within less than two years.

#AI安全风险

Under the shock to 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, Bitcoin’s risk-resilience is stronger than gold

On September 8, according to the latest report from CoinDesk, amid a backdrop of continuously rising U.S. Treasury yields, Bitcoin has demonstrated stronger risk-resilience than gold.

Data shows that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold reached 0.59, the highest level since 2020. This is mainly attributable to growing market concerns about the fiscal health of developed economies.

However, the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is only -0.17, indicating that the price-linkage effect between the two is almost negligible;

Meanwhile, during the same period, the correlation coefficient between gold and Treasury yields reached -0.41, showing a more distinct negative binding relationship. This also means that when bond yields rise, gold suffers more significantly than Bitcoin.

This finding suggests that Bitcoin is subject to bond-market constraints to a relatively lower degree, and that the headwind environment driven by traditional yields may give it stronger decoupling ability.

Of course, this does not mean Bitcoin is completely immune to macro pressures, but it does show a distinctive advantage in how it responds to traditional financial stress—one of the core characteristics that sets it apart from other risk assets.

#比特币 #黄金

Bitfinex Alpha: August Non-Farm Lifts Rate-Hike Expectations; Bitcoin Maintains Choppy Trading Around the $80,000 Range

On September 8, Bitfinex Alpha’s latest market report said that, driven by stronger U.S. Non-Farm payroll data in August, the market has raised its pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on September 16, with the probability climbing to 60%.

Even as rate-hike expectations heat up, Bitcoin still holds near the $80,000 level. However, rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on risk assets: the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries has moved up to 4.37%, while the 30-year yield remains elevated at 5.24%.

The report noted that around $82,000 Bitcoin encountered clear selling pressure. At present, it is trading within a range-bound box of $77,200–$82,100.

The analysis suggests the current market is in a phase of power struggles. If subsequent inflation data weakens, capital will again price in expectations of a Fed pause in September; conversely, if inflation remains strong, it will further reinforce the likelihood of additional rate hikes.

In addition, both support and pressure factors are acting on the price action simultaneously. Bitfinex said that continued ETF inflows and steady growth in stablecoin supply provide bottom support for Bitcoin, but expectations for Fed policy and high Treasury yields limit its upside room.

Bitfinex’s assessment is that, until Bitcoin effectively breaks out of the current trading range, it is likely to continue operating within a mildly bullish range. For now, it does not have the conditions to kick off a new round of trend upside.

#行情解读

IMF confirms: El Salvador has not used public funds; all newly added Bitcoin comes from private donations

On September 7, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) disclosed that all newly added Bitcoin reserves by El Salvador since June 2025 have come entirely from private donations, with no use of any public fiscal funds.

This confirmation not only removes obstacles to the country’s access to a new $140 million loan, but also is one of the most significant outcomes of the reconciliation reached between El Salvador and the IMF regarding a $1.4 billion assistance program.

The assistance program originated in December 2024, when the two sides reached an agreement worth $1.4 billion, including conditions aimed at limiting related crypto-asset activities in the country.

Under the agreement, the IMF required El Salvador to set the acceptance of Bitcoin by the private sector on a voluntary basis, and to strictly limit public-sector participation in Bitcoin transactions.

So far, El Salvador has provided the IMF with relevant documents to prove that, besides already recorded donations, no additional Bitcoin inflows into the public sector are expected going forward.

As part of the reconciliation, El Salvador made a series of concessions, including restricting public-sector participation in Bitcoin transactions, converting private-sector acceptance of Bitcoin into a voluntary act, and scaling back parts of the crypto policy framework.

Moreover, the government-led Chivo digital wallet has significantly reduced public participation. Most shareholding and operational control have been transferred to a private operator, while the government retains only a small stake, with responsibilities limited to holding customer assets.

The head of the IMF delegation noted that, boosted by joint factors such as investment and consumption spending, remittances, tourism, and capital inflows, El Salvador’s 2025 GDP growth rate is exceeding expectations, and the country is projected to reach 4.5% real GDP this year.

Separately, according to reserve data tracked by BitcoinTreasuries, El Salvador currently holds about 7,765 Bitcoins, ranking among the top five countries on the list. As of the latest count, this batch of Bitcoin reserves is valued at roughly $617 million.

In sum, as the world’s first country to legalize Bitcoin, El Salvador is gradually adjusting its previously aggressive crypto policy path under the IMF’s framework constraints.

#萨尔瓦多 #IMF

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin undergoes the most intense deleveraging since 2023, traders re-enter to drive a rebound

On September 7, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote that after what became the strongest deleveraging cycle since 2023, Bitcoin’s Binance open interest (OI) saw a significant decline, becoming the most direct signal of the current correction.

As the futures trading-led cycle came to an end, the market moved into a large-scale liquidation phase. Binance’s Bitcoin open interest (OI) falling and dropping below the 180-day moving average fully reflects the strength and speed of the deleveraging process.

The analyst believes this is a necessary step in market operations. The adjustment forces the market to close positions and liquidates excessively inflated long and short positions. This round is also one of the largest liquidation events in Bitcoin’s history.

Data shows that Binance’s current Bitcoin open interest (OI) is $9.6 billion, higher than the 180-day average of $8.3 billion. It accounts for 37% of the total open interest across the network, exceeding the position size when BTC rebounded to $82,000 in May this year.

Although this round of deleveraging has largely run its course and has also pulled Bitcoin’s price upward, Darkfost reminds that the market still carries a relatively large leverage base. A new round of aggressive deleveraging could be triggered again in the future, so it’s necessary to keep monitoring changes in derivatives positions.

In summary, this round of deleveraging has driven a price rebound, but the market’s leverage base remains on the high side. Whether high leverage will affect Bitcoin’s outlook and whether the market will see another large-scale liquidation remain to be further observed.

#比特币去杠杆