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Introduction
The U.S. prediction market industry has witnessed rapid growth over the past few years, attracting retail traders and speculative capital with innovative event-based contracts. However, despite the surge in activity, analysts increasingly warn that this expansion rests on an unstable foundation. Much of the sector’s success appears to stem from regulatory loopholes rather than organic market maturity, raising questions about its long-term sustainability.
Growth Driven by Regulatory Arbitrage
According to reports cited by Odaily, the fragmented nature of U.S. state regulations has allowed prediction market platforms to thrive in regulatory gray zones. These inconsistencies enable users in certain jurisdictions to participate in markets that closely resemble sports betting, but are structured as prediction or event contracts.
As a result, platforms benefit from regulatory arbitrage, operating under federal oversight frameworks that differ significantly from traditional gambling regulations at the state level. While this has fueled growth, it has also exposed the industry to heightened regulatory risk.
Trading Volume Concentration Raises Concerns
Data from Dune Analytics reveals a heavy concentration of trading activity in sports-related markets. By 2025, sports contracts are projected to account for approximately 85% of Kalshi’s total trading volume, while Polymarket reportedly derives nearly 39% of its volume from similar events.
This reliance on sports betting-like activity raises concerns about diversification. Analysts argue that such concentration limits the industry’s resilience, making it vulnerable to regulatory crackdowns targeting sports wagering rather than broader financial prediction use cases.
Liquidity Constraints Limit Institutional Participation
Despite strong retail interest, liquidity across non-sports prediction markets remains shallow. Devin Ryan, Head of Financial Technology Research at Citizens Bank, highlights the lack of sufficient market depth as a critical weakness.
For example:
The market size for predicting January CPI inflation data on Kalshi is below $1 million
The core inflation prediction market has liquidity of less than $30,000
These figures are far below the levels required to attract institutional investors, who typically demand deep liquidity, transparent pricing, and robust risk controls before entering new asset classes.
“Fragile Prosperity” and Sustainability Risks
Industry observers describe the current state of U.S. prediction markets as one of fragile prosperity. Growth is heavily supported by:
Regulatory ambiguity
Aggressive marketing expenditures
Speculative retail participation
Should user interest decline or marketing budgets shrink, trading volumes could fall sharply. More importantly, any tightening of regulatory oversight could significantly disrupt current business models.
Regulatory Tensions and Legal Uncertainty
Prediction market platforms often position themselves as providers of event contracts, claiming oversight under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, state regulators have adopted a more cautious approach, particularly when products resemble traditional sports betting.
This ongoing jurisdictional conflict has created legal uncertainty, with experts suggesting that a U.S. Supreme Court ruling may ultimately be required to define the regulatory boundaries of prediction markets.
Conclusion
While U.S. prediction markets continue to grow in visibility and participation, their long-term outlook remains uncertain. Sustainable expansion will depend on clearer regulatory frameworks, stronger market integrity rules, deeper liquidity, and greater diversification beyond sports-based contracts.
Until these challenges are addressed, the sector’s growth may remain vulnerable to regulatory shifts and changing market sentiment.

#Kalshi
#Polymarket
#CFTC
#MacroTrading
#InstitutionalTrading

It’s official: the "regulatory friction" that has defined the U.S. crypto market for years is being dismantled. Scott Melker (The Wolf Of All Streets) recently highlighted a major turning point, reporting that SEC Chair Paul Atkins is ushering in a new era of federal coordination.
At a historic joint event titled "Harmonization: U.S. Financial Leadership in the Crypto Era" on January 29, 2026, Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig stood side-by-side to announce a unified front.
Key Takeaways from the Atkins Era
The message from the top of the SEC is clear: the focus has shifted from "regulation by enforcement" to "regulation by coordination."
Project Crypto Goes Joint: The SEC’s flagship "Project Crypto" is now a joint initiative with the CFTC. This aims to create "bright lines" so companies finally know which agency has jurisdiction. Trump’s Vision: Atkins emphasized that these efforts are directly aligned with President Trump’s goal of making the United States the "crypto capital of the world." The "Turf War" is Over: Atkins spoke candidly about moving past the legacy of competition between the two agencies, favoring a "fit-for-purpose" regulatory regime that supports innovation rather than obstructing it.
Why This Matters for Your Portfolio 📈
For years, the "SEC vs. CFTC" battle created a cloud of uncertainty that kept institutional capital on the sidelines.
Onshoring Capital: The new framework is designed to bring crypto distributions and trading back to U.S. soil. Institutional Confidence: Clear rules mean major banks and funds can finally integrate digital assets without fear of "scarlet letter" enforcement actions. Market Structure Reform: With the CLARITY Act moving through Congress, this agency coordination provides the immediate practical certainty that markets have been craving.
Is the U.S. finally winning the global race for crypto dominance? Or do we still need more legislative proof before the "crypto capital" title is official?
Share your thoughts in the comments! 👇
#SEC #CFTC #PaulAtkins #CryptoRegulation #WolfOfAllStreets $BTC

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially allowed U.S. banks to issue dollar-backed stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.
What does it simply mean? 🤔
💳 Any national bank can issue its own Stablecoin
💵 Dollar-backed 1:1
🏦 Officially used as a means of payment and financial guarantee within markets
⚖️ Treated as a real financial instrument, not just a crypto experiment