ZeroBlock

XMR has made a strong move today.
After losing the $500 area earlier it came back fast and reached around $520. The price is now near $516 with daily gains around 11%.
What caught my attention was not only the price.
Trading activity also jumped hard. Volume was up more than 200% which shows that this move is getting real attention from traders.
There is also a change in how people can access XMR.
THORChain added native Monero swaps against Bitcoin Ethereum and stablecoins. This gives users another way to move between XMR and other major assets without relying on a normal centralized exchange.
That matters because Monero has limited access on many large trading platforms.
The trading data is also getting stronger.
Monero Open Interest moved up around 16% to about $304 million. Derivatives volume also jumped sharply. More traders are now opening positions around the move.
The Long Short Ratio was above 1 as well. That means more traders were leaning long than short.
But there is one thing I would not ignore.
RSI is around 80.
That is already deep in the overbought area. Strong momentum can stay strong for a while but a sharp pullback can also happen when too many traders enter after a fast move.
For me the important level is still $500.
If XMR keeps holding above it then the next area around $527 becomes the first test. A clean move through that level could open the way toward $546.
But if buyers fail to hold $500 then the story changes quickly.
In that case $460 becomes an important area to watch.
Right now the trend is clearly with the buyers.
The real question is whether fresh demand can keep coming after such a fast move.
$500 is the line I would watch before getting too excited about $546.

A few weeks ago this target looked difficult.
Now I think it deserves more attention.
SOL has been one of the strongest large coins this month with a gain of around 40%. Price action alone is interesting but what caught my attention is what is happening behind the scenes.
The network is getting busier.
Solana is processing around 2100 transactions per second which is much higher than earlier this year. DEX activity is also growing fast. One recent day saw more than $3 billion in trading volume on Solana based exchanges.
That tells me people are not only trading SOL. They are using the network too.
Then there is the ETF story.
Solana ETFs saw their strongest inflows of the year during the last week of August. More than $150 million entered these products in a short period. This adds another source of demand that did not exist before.
Whales have also been active.
Large holders have continued buying while price stays above the important $100 area. This level now feels more like a line that traders are watching closely.
If SOL stays above $100 and keeps building momentum then $110 becomes easier to reclaim.
After that the discussion around $140 starts to look more realistic.
Of course nothing moves in a straight line.
Ethereum has still outperformed Solana over the last quarter and the wider market can always slow things down.
But what makes this setup different is that several things are moving together.
Network activity is rising.
DEX volume is rising.
ETF inflows are rising.
Whale accumulation is rising.
When all of these trends appear at the same time it becomes harder to ignore.
I would not say $140 is guaranteed.
But compared to a few months ago the path toward that target looks much clearer.
For me the key level remains $100.
As long as SOL keeps holding above it the year end story stays alive.

Michael Saylor posted his usual Bitcoin tease again.
The words were simple. We are back.
Usually this kind of post gets people thinking that Strategy may be ready to buy more Bitcoin. That matters because Strategy already holds a huge amount of BTC.
But I think there is another part of this story that is easier to miss.
Bitcoin has been moving higher. BTC is around $78K and has gained more than 23% over the past month.
Yet spot buying does not look strong enough to fully support that move.
Bitcoin Spot CVD has stayed almost flat. That means the spot market is not showing the kind of strong buying that you would normally want to see behind a large rally.
So what is pushing the price?
Leverage could be playing a bigger role.
When futures traders keep opening long positions the price can move higher even when spot buyers are not doing much. The problem is that this type of move can turn around very quickly.
That makes Saylor’s latest message interesting.
If Strategy really starts buying again then it could give the market another source of demand. Strategy has already built its Bitcoin position around an average cost near $75K.
But one company buying Bitcoin cannot fix weak market demand forever.
There is also the recent movement from large holders. Around 5,100 BTC worth nearly $399M was moved to Binance. That does not automatically mean selling. It could simply be liquidity or a change in holdings.
Still it adds more supply that traders will watch.
For me the main question is not whether Saylor buys again.
It is whether spot buyers finally return.
If BTC keeps rising while spot demand stays weak then this rally still looks fragile.
If spot buying starts picking up at the same time then the move becomes much easier to trust.
Saylor may be back.
Now Bitcoin needs real buyers to come back too.

The Altcoin Season Index is ending August near 29 points. That is close to Bitcoin season.
At first glance this looks bad for altcoins.
But when I looked at the wider market picture I noticed something that does not fully match the index.
TOTAL2 has gained more than 17% during August. This tracks the total crypto market value without Bitcoin. At the same time Bitcoin dominance has increased only around 2%.
That difference matters.
Altcoins have been growing much faster than the rise in Bitcoin dominance suggests. So the index may be showing a weak altcoin market while the actual market value is telling a different story.
There is another part that caught my attention.
Bitcoin dominance is again near the 60% area. This level has acted as strong resistance before. When Bitcoin dominance failed here in the past money started moving toward altcoins.
Bitcoin volume also looks weak.
Spot trading activity has fallen sharply during August. That makes the recent Bitcoin move less convincing to me. Price can rise with low activity but it becomes harder to trust the move when participation keeps falling.
This is where the setup gets interesting.
If Bitcoin dominance gets rejected around 60% while Bitcoin continues to trade with weak volume then altcoins could get another chance.
The Altcoin Season Index would still be showing Bitcoin season at that point.
But the market may already be moving ahead of the index.
I would not call an altcoin season yet. The confirmation still needs to come from Bitcoin dominance.
If 60% breaks and holds then the idea weakens.
If it gets rejected again then the May style rotation into altcoins becomes much more interesting.
Sometimes the index tells you what already happened.
Price structure can show you what might happen next.

ONDO had a strong run toward $0.42 but the move lost steam. The price has now dropped toward $0.34 and this is where things get more interesting.
The bigger range has been sitting between $0.305 and $0.42 for months. That makes the lower part of this range important. If buyers step in around $0.305 to $0.320 then ONDO could have room to move back toward $0.42.
But there is a problem.
Open Interest dropped from around $122 million to $112 million in just one day. Spot buying also became weaker. Funding turned negative for a while. These are not signs of strong short term demand.
The daily chart also does not look fully bullish yet. RSI is around 46 which means momentum is sitting near the middle. CMF is still positive though. That tells me money is still moving into ONDO even while price is under pressure.
This is why I would not chase the move here.
For me the key area is $0.305 to $0.320. If ONDO reaches that zone and buyers defend it then the range setup becomes interesting again. A move back above $0.364 would also be a better sign that buyers are getting control.
The bigger warning comes below $0.30.
If that level breaks and price stays below it then the range setup starts to fail. In that case the market could be showing that the recent weakness is more than just a normal pullback.
Right now ONDO is sitting between two very clear outcomes.
Hold the lower range and buyers may get another shot at $0.42.
Lose $0.30 and the whole setup changes.
That is the level I would be watching.
#ONDO $ONDO

CASHCAT has been moving fast while most memecoins are not getting much attention.
The token gained around 36 percent recently.
That caught my attention because money in the market has been moving toward projects that have a stronger use case.
Yet CASHCAT is still finding buyers.
The current market mood around the token is also positive.
The sentiment reading is around 6 out of 10.
That means more traders are leaning bullish than bearish.
But the chart is showing a small warning.
CASHCAT is trading close to the upper Bollinger Band.
When price gets this far above its normal range the chance of a pullback can increase.
We have already seen some selling appear.
But sellers have not taken control.
The price has mostly moved sideways over the last few days.
That tells me buyers are still defending the recent gains.
Another signal is even more interesting.
Bull power has stayed strong for three straight days.
The indicator is showing that buyers are still pushing harder than sellers.
If that strength continues then CASHCAT could try to move higher again.
But there is another part of the market worth watching.
Perpetual trading activity is still showing strong interest.
Around $8.86 million flowed into perpetual positions during the last 24 hours.
Netflow was around $360700.
The funding rate also moved sharply higher.
It went from around 0.008 percent earlier on August 30 to around 0.063 percent.
That tells us traders are becoming much more willing to pay for long positions.
In simple terms more traders are betting that CASHCAT will keep going up.
That can help the price in the short term.
But it also creates a risk.
If too many traders become long at the same time then a sudden drop can force some of them to close their positions.
That can make a normal pullback move much faster.
So I would not chase the recent green candles.
For me the important thing is whether buyers can keep the current momentum without creating too much leverage.
CASHCAT has already shown that it can move quickly.
Now it needs to show that it can hold those gains.
If bull power stays strong and new money continues entering the perpetual market then another push higher is possible.
But if funding keeps rising while price starts losing strength then I would become more careful.
The rally is real.
The next test is whether buyers can keep control after the excitement starts cooling down.
$CAT

Solana had a strong week.
SOL moved above $110 before falling back toward $102.
Now the price is around $105 and the market has become much quieter.
But something interesting is happening behind the price.
Large holders are still buying.
One whale that had been inactive for around eight months suddenly returned.
The wallet bought 76,856 SOL worth around $8 million.
That is a serious amount for one purchase.
It was not the only large buy either.
Two other whales had already bought around $33.5 million worth of SOL one day earlier.
So in total we are looking at more than $41 million in whale buying within a short period.
This is interesting because the market is not moving strongly right now.
Trading activity has slowed down.
Futures activity has also cooled.
Usually that would make me more careful about a short term rally.
But whale behavior is telling a different story.
Solana spot netflow has also moved back into negative territory.
Around $4.5 million more SOL was leaving trading platforms than entering them.
That can be interesting when large holders are also buying.
It suggests some investors may be moving SOL away from the market instead of preparing to sell it.
The price is now sitting above $100.
That level has become important after the recent rally.
For me the next key level is still $110.
SOL reached it recently but could not stay there.
If buyers return with enough strength and SOL closes above $105 first then $110 could come back into focus.
A clean break above $110 would be a much stronger signal.
But there is one thing that could delay the move.
Futures activity.
If traders continue closing positions instead of opening new ones then SOL may keep moving sideways.
That would not necessarily mean the bullish trend is over.
It could simply mean the market needs more time.
What I find most interesting is the difference between price and whale activity.
The price is moving slowly.
Large holders are moving quickly.
That usually makes me pay closer attention.
Whales do not always get the timing right.
But when several large buyers appear during a market pause it is worth watching what happens next.
For now $100 looks like the level bulls want to protect.
And $110 is the level they need to take back.
If whale buying continues then SOL may get another chance at that breakout.
Until then I would rather watch the wallets than chase the candle.

The numbers around the Trump family crypto business caught my attention.
According to Public Citizen investors are sitting on at least $4.7 billion in unrealized losses across several Trump linked crypto projects.
The biggest part comes from the TRUMP memecoin.
Around $3.2 billion in losses are linked to people who bought the token.
There are also large losses connected to WLFI and Bitcoin holdings.
Around 1.6 million wallets that bought TRUMP are now sitting on unrealized losses.
That is a very large number of people exposed to one crypto project.
But there is an important difference between the investors and the Trump family.
While many investors are underwater the Trump family has reportedly earned around $1.4 billion from its crypto businesses.
That difference is what makes the story more interesting.
The market can go against investors while the people behind a project can still make money.
This does not automatically mean that anything illegal happened.
But it does raise questions about how these projects are structured and who carries the biggest risk when prices fall.
The family has also continued expanding its crypto plans despite the losses.
One of the biggest developments involves a planned bank connected to World Liberty Financial.
Reports say a UAE investor linked to the country's leadership could hold a 49 percent stake in the company behind the bank.
That has created another layer of attention around the project.
The issue is not only about crypto anymore.
It is also about politics and possible conflicts of interest.
Some US lawmakers have already raised concerns about government officials and their families being involved in crypto businesses.
New proposals have also been introduced that would place limits on these activities.
For me the most important part is still the money.
Billions of dollars in unrealized losses show how risky these investments have become for many buyers.
At the same time the Trump family continues to build around crypto.
That creates a very different experience for the people involved.
Investors are watching their token values move up and down.
The people running the businesses can earn money from the business itself.
That is something every crypto investor should understand before buying into a project.
A popular name does not remove market risk.
Political attention does not remove market risk either.
And a large community does not guarantee that investors will make money.
The Trump crypto story is still developing.
The biggest question now is whether these ventures can turn their strong attention into lasting businesses.
Because attention can bring money very quickly.
Keeping that money is a completely different challenge.

XRP had a strong run recently.
The price jumped around 53 percent in one week and reached about $1.50.
Then things changed.
XRP pulled back around 7 percent and moved closer to $1.40.
That alone is not unusual after such a fast move.
But what happened during the pullback caught my attention.
A large XRP wallet moved around 231 million XRP to another address.
That was the biggest whale withdrawal seen in about six months.
The interesting part is that the price still went lower after the move.
So now there are two very different signals.
The price is showing weakness.
A large holder is moving a huge amount of XRP away from an exchange.
That raises a simple question.
Was this accumulation or something else?
A withdrawal does not automatically mean a whale is buying.
The coins could be moved for many reasons.
But the timing becomes interesting when we look at ETF activity too.
XRP ETFs brought in more than $28 million in one day on August 26.
That was the strongest daily inflow since early this year.
So while the price was falling there was still fresh money moving into XRP through ETFs.
This is where I think the current setup becomes interesting.
The market looks weak on the surface.
But some larger holders may be preparing for something different.
The $1.50 level is now important.
XRP was rejected around that area and moved lower.
If buyers can bring the price back above $1.50 then the recent pullback could start looking like a normal pause.
But if XRP keeps falling while ETF inflows slow down then the whale withdrawal may not mean what some people expect.
I would not assume that every large withdrawal is bullish.
I would rather watch what happens next.
Does XRP start moving higher?
Do ETF inflows continue?
Do more large wallets move coins away from exchanges?
Those answers will tell us much more than one whale transaction.
Right now the interesting part is the mismatch.
Price is weak.
ETF demand is strong.
A huge amount of XRP has also moved away from an exchange.
The market is sending mixed signals.
For me that makes $1.50 the level to watch.
If XRP gets back above it with strong demand then the recent drop may have been nothing more than a reset.
If it fails again then sellers may still have control.
The whale move is interesting.
But the reaction after the move will be even more important.

Something happened with Bitcoin that could become much more important over time.
A quantum resistant Bitcoin transaction was completed for the first known time.
The transaction was carried out by StarkWare and the MARA Foundation.
At first this may sound like just another technical update.
I do not think it is.
Quantum computers are not an everyday threat to Bitcoin right now.
But there is a long term problem that developers cannot ignore.
Most Bitcoin addresses hide the public key behind a hash until the coins are spent.
Once a transaction is made the public key becomes visible.
If powerful enough quantum computers ever become available then old cryptography could become a much bigger problem.
This recent transaction showed one possible way to protect Bitcoin during the spending process.
The interesting part is that it did not require a Bitcoin soft fork.
That makes the test even more interesting.
There is still a catch.
The method currently depends on a private mempool.
A mempool is basically the waiting area where transactions sit before they are confirmed.
So this is not a final solution for the whole Bitcoin network.
It is more like a way to buy time.
And I think that is the real value of this development.
Bitcoin does not need to solve every quantum problem today.
It needs to prove that there are workable paths before the problem becomes urgent.
Other developers are also looking at possible post quantum signature systems.
That tells me the discussion is moving beyond simply asking whether quantum computers are dangerous.
The question is becoming how Bitcoin should prepare for them.
This could take years.
Any major change to Bitcoin needs serious testing and discussion before it can become part of the network.
That is why I would not treat this transaction as Bitcoin being fully quantum safe.
It is not.
But it is a useful proof that quantum resistant spending on Bitcoin can actually be done.
For me the biggest takeaway is simple.
The threat may still be far away.
The preparation cannot start too late.
Bitcoin has always been built around long term security.
Now developers are starting to think about a type of computer that does not even exist at the required level yet.
That may sound early.
But with Bitcoin it makes sense to prepare before the problem becomes real.
This first transaction does not finish the job.
It shows that the job can begin.

Ethereum is in an interesting position right now.
The buying looks strong when you look at ETF flows.
ETH spot ETFs have seen net inflows every trading day since August 12.
Across 12 trading days the total inflow has passed $1.5 billion.
One major investment product alone bought around $1.02 billion worth of ETH across nine days without a net selling day.
That is a lot of demand.
But the price is still facing heavy selling.
This is the part that caught my attention.
The taker buy sell ratio on one major derivatives venue dropped to 0.81.
In simple terms there was much more aggressive selling than buying.
Usually that kind of selling can push price lower quickly.
But ETH is still holding above an important area.
Around $2.3K.
Onchain data shows that many large ETH holders have their average cost around the $2.26K to $2.35K zone.
So the current price is still above the cost level for these holders.
That makes $2.3K an important area to watch.
If ETH stays above it while heavy selling continues then buyers may be absorbing that pressure.
That would be a good sign.
But if ETH falls below this area then the situation could change.
There is another level I am watching from the other side.
$2.53K.
ETH has been moving inside a range between roughly $2.38K and $2.53K.
The recent rally has slowed down and price is now moving sideways.
That is not automatically bearish.
Sometimes the market needs time to cool down after a strong move.
But if price stays stuck in this range for too long then it can also mean that some holders are slowly taking profits.
So for me there are two levels that matter most.
$2.3K on the downside.
$2.53K on the upside.
If $2.3K holds while ETF buying continues then the current selling could simply be absorbed by strong demand.
If ETH breaks above $2.53K then the next move higher could become much easier.
But if $2.3K breaks then I would become more careful.
The interesting part is that the market is showing buying and selling at the same time.
ETF demand is strong.
Aggressive sellers are active.
Yet ETH has not broken down.
That tells me the real battle is happening around these support and resistance levels.
I would rather watch how ETH reacts around $2.3K and $2.53K than guess the next move from the headlines.
Those two levels may tell us where the market wants to go next.

I was reading about Ethena and one thing stood out.
The team is not only trying to increase yield.
They are trying to make yield work outside of the normal crypto cycle.
That is a much bigger challenge.
USDe has mostly depended on basis trades connected to crypto markets. This strategy can work very well when trading activity is high. But when the market becomes quiet yields can fall sharply.
We already saw this happen before.
USDe supply once reached almost $15 billion during strong market conditions. Later it dropped to around $4 billion as yields became weaker.
This explains why Ethena has been changing its approach.
The project first added traditional credit exposure.
Now it plans to expand into equity perpetual markets linked to real world assets.
According to Ethena this market has grown to around $6 billion in open interest since March.
The founder believes it could become much larger over the next one or two years.
The interesting part is not the size prediction.
It is the idea behind it.
Crypto is still a relatively small market compared with traditional assets.
If yield products can use deeper markets outside crypto then returns may become less dependent on Bitcoin or Ethereum cycles.
At the moment stablecoins make up the largest part of USDe backing.
DeFi lending is another major part.
Traditional credit already has a place in the reserves.
Real world asset perpetuals would become another layer.
For me this looks less like a search for higher yield and more like a search for more stable yield.
Of course there are still questions.
These markets are still new.
Liquidity needs to keep growing.
Risk management becomes more important as the structure becomes more complex.
That is likely why Ethena waited before moving into this area.
The bigger idea here is simple.
Most crypto yield products rise and fall with the market.
Ethena seems to be building a model that can continue working even when crypto activity slows down.
If this approach succeeds then USDe may become less tied to the usual market cycles.
And that could be more important than chasing the highest yield.

XRP has been getting strong buying from spot ETFs.
But the price has not really followed that demand yet.
That gap is what caught my attention.
XRP spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of inflows.
During that period they brought in more than $153 million.
The total inflow for August has reached around $157 million.
That is a strong number.
It also means that a meaningful amount of XRP exposure is being added through these investment products.
But XRP is still struggling.
The price was around $1.38 after falling more than 8 percent over the past week.
So we have a strange situation.
Money is still coming in.
Price momentum is getting weaker.
Usually I want to see these two things move together.
When they do not match it becomes harder to understand what the market is preparing for.
Whale activity is also divided.
Some large traders are betting on higher prices.
Others are betting on another drop.
That tells me there is still no clear agreement among bigger players about where XRP goes next.
The chart is giving another warning.
XRP has fallen from around $1.70 to $1.38.
Trading activity has also slowed down compared with the much higher levels seen earlier this year.
The momentum indicator is weakening too.
So even though ETF demand looks strong the price still needs to prove that buyers have enough strength to push the market higher.
For me there is one level that matters more than the rest.
$1.10.
That is the area where the current trend needs to hold.
If XRP stays above it then this pullback could simply be a pause after the earlier rally.
But if XRP breaks below it and stays there then the current bullish setup becomes much weaker.
This is why I would not call the supercycle confirmed just because ETF inflows are strong.
The demand is clearly there.
But price still needs to respond.
Right now XRP looks like a market where buyers are quietly adding exposure while traders remain unsure about the next move.
If the ETF buying continues and XRP starts moving higher again then the picture could change very quickly.
Until then I am watching the gap between demand and price.
That gap may tell us more than the headline ETF inflow number.

Solana has been getting a lot of attention from bigger investors lately.
What caught my eye is the activity around its spot ETFs.
Over the last 10 days Solana ETFs saw around $138 million in net inflows.
One day was especially strong.
On August 25 the products brought in around $47 million.
That is not a small amount for one day.
The bigger picture is also interesting.
Solana ETFs have now seen around $1.7 billion in total inflows since launch.
One staking ETF has also crossed $1 billion in assets.
So there is clearly money moving into SOL through these investment products.
But here is the part I find more interesting.
SOL was still trading around $104 after falling more than 3 percent in one day.
At the same time the token was still up more than 10 percent over the week.
This tells me that strong buying does not always mean price will move higher immediately.
There can be sellers waiting at higher levels.
There can also be traders taking profits after a strong move.
This is why I would not look at ETF inflows and instantly call it a guaranteed bullish move.
The demand is real.
But the price still has to prove that it can handle the selling.
Another development worth watching is Solana governance.
The community approved two proposals during its first on chain governance voting.
One of them is focused on the Solana Constitution.
The other will make the network reach its long term inflation target faster.
A third proposal about transaction fees did not pass.
For me this shows that the Solana community is becoming more active in decisions about how the network should work.
So there are several things happening at once.
ETF demand is growing.
Large investment products are holding more SOL.
Governance is becoming more active.
Yet the price is still struggling to fully reflect all of that demand.
That gap is what interests me most.
If ETF inflows continue while SOL keeps holding its recent gains then the market may eventually start pricing in that demand.
But if the inflows remain strong and price keeps moving sideways then we may be looking at a market where buyers are slowly absorbing the available supply.
Either way I think the next few weeks will be more important than one strong ETF day.
The money is already showing up.
Now SOL needs to show that it can turn that demand into a stronger price trend.

Bitcoin has moved a long way from the $60K area.
Now the price is close to $82K and this is where things start getting interesting.
One thing I noticed is that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have been rising.
They have reached around 685000 BTC.
That is the highest level seen this year.
This matters because Bitcoin sitting on exchanges can be easier to sell. When reserves rise during a price rally it can mean that more coins are becoming available for sellers.
So while the price looks strong the supply side is giving us a reason to stay careful.
But there is another signal that makes the situation less clear.
The Bitcoin Network Stress Index has fallen to very low levels.
This metric looks at different parts of Bitcoin activity such as network activity and fee changes.
When it reaches very low levels the market has often been close to a period of bigger movement.
The important part is that this signal does not tell us if the next move will be up or down.
It only tells us that the quiet period may not last much longer.
Then I noticed something else.
Large Bitcoin wallets have continued to accumulate while smaller wallets have been selling during the recent move higher.
That is interesting because large holders can have a bigger effect on the market.
If these larger wallets continue buying then the selling from smaller holders may not be enough to stop the move.
But there is still one level I would watch closely.
$82K.
Bitcoin has not clearly moved above this area yet.
If BTC breaks above $82K and holds there then the current structure could become much stronger.
But if the price keeps getting rejected while exchange reserves remain high then the market could see another wave of selling.
That is why I would not look at the price alone right now.
There are two very different signals happening at the same time.
Exchange reserves are rising.
Large wallets are still buying.
One points toward more available supply.
The other points toward confidence from bigger holders.
And the low network stress reading adds another layer to the situation because it suggests a larger move could be getting closer.
For me the next important move is not simply whether Bitcoin goes up or down today.
I want to see what happens around $82K.
A clean break could bring fresh buyers.
Another rejection could bring more selling.
Bitcoin looks calm on the surface.
But underneath it there are signs that the next move could be much bigger than the recent daily moves.

Bitcoin is sitting near $80K and the market feels more interesting than the price alone suggests.
One number caught my attention.
Around 14 million BTC is currently in profit.
That means a very large part of the Bitcoin supply is sitting above the price where it was bought.
At first this sounds positive.
It shows that many holders are doing well.
But there is another side to it.
When a large amount of Bitcoin is in profit some holders may decide to take money off the table. If enough people do that around the same price then selling pressure can become strong.
This is why the $80K area matters so much right now.
Bitcoin has tested this level several times. The question is whether buyers can keep supporting the price or whether profitable holders start selling into the strength.
There is one thing that makes the current situation more interesting.
Bitcoin has been leaving exchanges.
Spot market netflow stayed negative for three days. The total outflow was around $261 million.
Exchange reserves have also moved lower.
Reserves fell from around 2.735 million BTC on August 15 to around 2.707 million BTC.
That means less Bitcoin is sitting on exchanges compared with earlier this month.
I usually pay attention to this because Bitcoin sitting away from exchanges may not be ready for immediate selling.
So we have two forces facing each other.
Millions of BTC are in profit.
At the same time less BTC is sitting on exchanges.
Then there is institutional demand.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $3.51 billion in inflows during August. Large buyers have also continued adding BTC.
This creates an interesting setup around $80K.
If demand stays strong then the large amount of profitable Bitcoin may not be enough to stop the move.
But if buyers become weaker then profit taking could become more visible.
There is also a historical point worth watching.
Bitcoin reached a similar liquidity area earlier this year but could not stay above it. The price later dropped sharply.
In late 2023 Bitcoin managed to stay above a similar area for a longer period. That strength came before the major move that followed in 2024.
So I am not looking at $80K as just another price level.
I am watching what holders do around it.
If Bitcoin breaks above $80K and holds there then confidence could grow quickly.
If it keeps getting rejected then some profitable holders may start taking money out.
For me the next move depends less on how many people are bullish and more on whether buyers can absorb the selling from those already sitting on profit.
That is the real test for Bitcoin right now.

Ethereum has started to look interesting again.
What caught my attention is not only the price. It is where the buying is coming from.
There has been a clear increase in large ETH purchases. One whale recently bought 5425 ETH for around $13.55 million. Another wallet received 40000 ETH worth around $100 million.
Then there is the bigger picture.
An Ethereum spot ETF recorded close to $890 million in net buying across eight trading days. The important part is that buying appeared on every single day during that period.
That is hard to ignore.
It shows that demand is not coming from just one trader or one large wallet. There seems to be a wider interest in holding ETH.
At the same time the amount of ETH sitting on exchanges has continued to fall.
Exchange reserves are now around 14.93 million ETH.
This matters because coins sitting on exchanges are usually easier to sell. When the available supply keeps getting smaller while buyers keep appearing the market can become more sensitive to new demand.
This is where the current ETH setup becomes interesting.
Buying is happening in the spot market while leverage does not look too high.
Open interest is around $14.5 billion. That is much lower than some of the levels seen earlier this year.
For me this is actually a good sign.
When price rises mainly because traders are using heavy leverage the move can become weak very quickly. A small drop can force leveraged traders to close their positions. That can create more selling and make the fall even faster.
But when more buying comes from people actually taking ETH into their holdings the situation can be different.
Right now the market looks more like accumulation than a huge leveraged bet.
There is also another signal that caught my attention.
Demand from US investors has started to improve again. This comes after a long period where that demand was weaker.
So we have three things happening at the same time.
More large buyers are entering.
Available ETH supply is falling.
Leverage is still relatively controlled.
That combination is worth watching.
Of course this does not mean ETH has to move straight up.
Markets rarely move in a perfect line.
The main thing I would watch from here is open interest.
If ETH continues to rise while open interest stays reasonable then the move could remain healthier.
But if leverage starts growing much faster than the price then the situation changes.
That would mean more traders are chasing the move with borrowed money.
And that is where things can become risky.
For now I find the current setup more interesting than a simple price chart.
The demand is showing up before the leverage.
The supply available to the market is getting smaller.
And that gives Ethereum a very different setup compared with a move that is driven mainly by futures traders.
The next few weeks should tell us whether this is the start of a bigger accumulation phase or simply another short period of strong buying.
For now the spot activity is the part I am watching most closely.

I was looking at Hyperliquid again and one thing stood out to me.
The platform is doing a huge amount of trading volume. Its notional volume has reached around $249 billion. That is a very large number and it shows how much activity is happening around the platform.
But high volume does not always mean the token itself is safe from a sharp move.
This is where HYPE gets interesting.
Hyperliquid has built a strong trading crowd around its platform. More traders bring more volume. More volume can bring more liquidity. Better liquidity can bring even more traders.
That cycle can work very well when the market is going up.
The problem starts when too many people expect the same thing.
Recent liquidation data shows that around 80 percent of the one month liquidation exposure is on the long side. Over three months the number is even higher at around 82 percent.
That tells me the market is heavily leaning toward HYPE going higher.
And that is exactly where I would become more careful.
When most traders are positioned for the same move there is less room for mistakes. A small drop can start closing some long positions. Those liquidations can push the price lower. More positions can then get closed because traders are using leverage.
It can turn into a chain reaction very quickly.
There is another part of this that caught my attention.
Hyperliquid Strategies has built a very large HYPE treasury. Its holdings reached around 29.3 million HYPE tokens. The company has also raised hundreds of millions of dollars and used a large part of that money to buy more HYPE.
That shows strong confidence in the ecosystem.
But confidence can also create risk when too much money starts moving in the same direction.
For me the interesting question is not whether Hyperliquid is successful.
It clearly is.
The bigger question is whether HYPE can handle a market where too many traders have already become comfortable being bullish.
A strong project can still see a sharp price drop.
A strong token can still get caught in a crowded trade.
So I am watching the long side more than the volume right now.
The volume tells us that people are there.
The liquidation data tells us how they are positioned.
And right now that positioning looks very one sided.
If HYPE keeps holding its current levels then the trend can continue.
But if longs start getting forced out then the same crowd that helped push HYPE higher could also become the reason for a fast pullback.
That is the part of the HYPE story I think is worth watching.