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coreweave
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#CoreWeave CoreWeave plunged more than 15% a couple of days ago after plans to take on more debt spooked investors: the business keeps expanding, but can it afford the bill?๐ค๐ค
Then Jensen Huang stepped in to back it. He said CoreWeaveโs financial position is improving and the company is getting stronger every day. NVIDIA doesnโt even need to provide it with a financial guarantee.
Thatโs a clever endorsement: not โweโll bail them out,โ but โthey donโt need us to.โ
As CoreWeaveโs computing hardware supplier, NVIDIA clearly has an interest in seeing a major customer succeed. For investors, Jensenโs comments offer some reassuranceโfor now.
How long that reassurance will last is anyoneโs guess.
#CoreWeave CoreWeave plunged more than 15% a couple of days ago after plans to take on more debt spooked investors: the business keeps expanding, but can it afford the bill?๐ค๐ค
Then Jensen Huang stepped in to back it. He said CoreWeaveโs financial position is improving and the company is getting stronger every day. NVIDIA doesnโt even need to provide it with a financial guarantee.
Thatโs a clever endorsement: not โweโll bail them out,โ but โthey donโt need us to.โ
As CoreWeaveโs computing hardware supplier, NVIDIA clearly has an interest in seeing a major customer succeed. For investors, Jensenโs comments offer some reassuranceโfor now.
How long that reassurance will last is anyoneโs guess.
Then Jensen Huang stepped in to back it. He said CoreWeaveโs financial position is improving and the company is getting stronger every day. NVIDIA doesnโt even need to provide it with a financial guarantee.
Thatโs a clever endorsement: not โweโll bail them out,โ but โthey donโt need us to.โ
As CoreWeaveโs computing hardware supplier, NVIDIA clearly has an interest in seeing a major customer succeed. For investors, Jensenโs comments offer some reassuranceโfor now.
How long that reassurance will last is anyoneโs guess.
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#CoreWeave Sentiment turns cold
$CRWV 60.98, down 1.01%, with trading volume of about 10.2 million USDT. Yahoo Financeโs bearish article had only been out for 0.6 hours.
I donโt think this news is worth making a fuss over. A 1% drop on this little volume means the market isnโt taking it seriously at all. If something were really wrong, it wouldnโt have fallen by just this much.
Iโm leaning bearish: once sentiment turns cold, highly leveraged expansion stocks like this can get hammered quickly. But itโs easy to prove me wrongโif it gets back above 62, Iโll admit it.
The signal to change my mind is trading volume. If real money starts pouring in and drives it down on heavy volume, Iโll take an even lower stance.
#CoreWeave Sentiment turns cold
$CRWV 60.98, down 1.01%, with trading volume of about 10.2 million USDT. Yahoo Financeโs bearish article had only been out for 0.6 hours.
I donโt think this news is worth making a fuss over. A 1% drop on this little volume means the market isnโt taking it seriously at all. If something were really wrong, it wouldnโt have fallen by just this much.
Iโm leaning bearish: once sentiment turns cold, highly leveraged expansion stocks like this can get hammered quickly. But itโs easy to prove me wrongโif it gets back above 62, Iโll admit it.
The signal to change my mind is trading volume. If real money starts pouring in and drives it down on heavy volume, Iโll take an even lower stance.
$CRWV 60.98, down 1.01%, with trading volume of about 10.2 million USDT. Yahoo Financeโs bearish article had only been out for 0.6 hours.
I donโt think this news is worth making a fuss over. A 1% drop on this little volume means the market isnโt taking it seriously at all. If something were really wrong, it wouldnโt have fallen by just this much.
Iโm leaning bearish: once sentiment turns cold, highly leveraged expansion stocks like this can get hammered quickly. But itโs easy to prove me wrongโif it gets back above 62, Iโll admit it.
The signal to change my mind is trading volume. If real money starts pouring in and drives it down on heavy volume, Iโll take an even lower stance.
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Last week, I wrote about CoreWeave. My closing line was: Stress-testing a business model with fear gets you closer to the truth than hyping its valuation with enthusiasm.
This week, the test spread.
CoreWeave fell nearly 12% in a single day, bringing its losses this week to around 25%.
Bond yields kept climbing.
Last week, it was one companyโs debt pressure. This week, the entire AI infrastructure chain is being reassessed.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged, and memory stocks got hammered too. Micron, AMD, Broadcom, Intel, SK Hynix, SanDiskโthe chip stocks fell across the board. Most big tech stocks closed lower: Meta -3.7%, Google -2.5%, Tesla -2.1%, Nvidia -1.4%.
Apple was the only one to edge up, +0.43%.
//
I wrote in my last post that neo-clouds sell โcertaintyโโand the higher the leverage, the more fragile they are.
This week, rising rate expectations and higher financing costs were added to the mix. That fragility spread from one companyโs balance sheet to share prices across the entire chip chain.
//
Jensen Huang responded publicly, saying these fluctuations โwill pass.โ
Nvidia sells the shovels and has backstop agreements, so he can afford to say that. But the market is testing whether downstream customers can repay their debts. That Gartner figure is still hanging over the sector: 80% of neo-clouds could shut down by 2030. For downstream companies bearing financing costs above 15%, that statement is, for now, just a hope.
โโโโ
Appleโs slight gain was, by contrast, the clearest signal. Everything getting hammered was tied to AI computing power and infrastructure leverage. Money moved into big tech furthest removed from AI infrastructure as a safe haven.
The keyword in my last post was โif.โ
This weekโs market action is effectively telling you that more and more people are betting that the โifโ wonโt hold.
//
Utilization, contract quality, and cost of capital. In my last post, I said these three things were being tested at CoreWeave. This week, the whole chain is being tested.
Those who can withstand this round of interest-rate pressure will stay at the table. Those who canโt will be forced out.
This filtering process may take a while.
Data is based on public disclosures from various parties and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AIๅบๅปบ
Last week, I wrote about CoreWeave. My closing line was: Stress-testing a business model with fear gets you closer to the truth than hyping its valuation with enthusiasm.
This week, the test spread.
CoreWeave fell nearly 12% in a single day, bringing its losses this week to around 25%.
Bond yields kept climbing.
Last week, it was one companyโs debt pressure. This week, the entire AI infrastructure chain is being reassessed.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged, and memory stocks got hammered too. Micron, AMD, Broadcom, Intel, SK Hynix, SanDiskโthe chip stocks fell across the board. Most big tech stocks closed lower: Meta -3.7%, Google -2.5%, Tesla -2.1%, Nvidia -1.4%.
Apple was the only one to edge up, +0.43%.
//
I wrote in my last post that neo-clouds sell โcertaintyโโand the higher the leverage, the more fragile they are.
This week, rising rate expectations and higher financing costs were added to the mix. That fragility spread from one companyโs balance sheet to share prices across the entire chip chain.
//
Jensen Huang responded publicly, saying these fluctuations โwill pass.โ
Nvidia sells the shovels and has backstop agreements, so he can afford to say that. But the market is testing whether downstream customers can repay their debts. That Gartner figure is still hanging over the sector: 80% of neo-clouds could shut down by 2030. For downstream companies bearing financing costs above 15%, that statement is, for now, just a hope.
โโโโ
Appleโs slight gain was, by contrast, the clearest signal. Everything getting hammered was tied to AI computing power and infrastructure leverage. Money moved into big tech furthest removed from AI infrastructure as a safe haven.
The keyword in my last post was โif.โ
This weekโs market action is effectively telling you that more and more people are betting that the โifโ wonโt hold.
//
Utilization, contract quality, and cost of capital. In my last post, I said these three things were being tested at CoreWeave. This week, the whole chain is being tested.
Those who can withstand this round of interest-rate pressure will stay at the table. Those who canโt will be forced out.
This filtering process may take a while.
Data is based on public disclosures from various parties and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AIๅบๅปบ
This week, the test spread.
CoreWeave fell nearly 12% in a single day, bringing its losses this week to around 25%.
Bond yields kept climbing.
Last week, it was one companyโs debt pressure. This week, the entire AI infrastructure chain is being reassessed.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged, and memory stocks got hammered too. Micron, AMD, Broadcom, Intel, SK Hynix, SanDiskโthe chip stocks fell across the board. Most big tech stocks closed lower: Meta -3.7%, Google -2.5%, Tesla -2.1%, Nvidia -1.4%.
Apple was the only one to edge up, +0.43%.
//
I wrote in my last post that neo-clouds sell โcertaintyโโand the higher the leverage, the more fragile they are.
This week, rising rate expectations and higher financing costs were added to the mix. That fragility spread from one companyโs balance sheet to share prices across the entire chip chain.
//
Jensen Huang responded publicly, saying these fluctuations โwill pass.โ
Nvidia sells the shovels and has backstop agreements, so he can afford to say that. But the market is testing whether downstream customers can repay their debts. That Gartner figure is still hanging over the sector: 80% of neo-clouds could shut down by 2030. For downstream companies bearing financing costs above 15%, that statement is, for now, just a hope.
โโโโ
Appleโs slight gain was, by contrast, the clearest signal. Everything getting hammered was tied to AI computing power and infrastructure leverage. Money moved into big tech furthest removed from AI infrastructure as a safe haven.
The keyword in my last post was โif.โ
This weekโs market action is effectively telling you that more and more people are betting that the โifโ wonโt hold.
//
Utilization, contract quality, and cost of capital. In my last post, I said these three things were being tested at CoreWeave. This week, the whole chain is being tested.
Those who can withstand this round of interest-rate pressure will stay at the table. Those who canโt will be forced out.
This filtering process may take a while.
Data is based on public disclosures from various parties and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AIๅบๅปบ
Powerpei
ยท
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CoreWeave fell 15.5% in a single day on Wednesday, closing at $65.78. The yield on its debt due in 2032 surged past 15%, and its CDS spread jumped above 1,000 basis points. Based on market pricing, the probability of default within five years is around 63%. Chamath posted a chart, Musk replied โYikes,โ and timelines were flooded with claims that leveraged AI infrastructure was about to collapse.
But the same company has around $129 billion in contracted revenue backlog, with Meta accounting for 27% and OpenAI for 17%. BofA has a Buy rating and a $140 price target, implying 105% upside. The CEO himself says the market is โirrational.โ The bond market thinks itโs about to die; equity analysts think it could doubleโand theyโre looking at the same financial statements...
What CoreWeave does is different from traditional hardware sales. It borrows money up front to stock up on GPUs, packages them as computing services, and rents them to customers through long-term contracts. Its balance sheet is full of debt, but the revenue side is supposed to turn into stable, recurring cash flow. Why are customers willing to sign long-term contracts? Because building their own clusters is too slow, too expensive, and too uncertain. In effect, CoreWeave takes on that uncertainty first by leveraging its own balance sheet, then sells the locked-in computing capacity. The more leverage it takes on, the more certainty it can offerโbut the more fragile it becomes.
A few details are worth noting. Gartner says around 80% of neocloud providers could shut down by 2030. Nvidia and CoreWeave have a backstop agreement: Nvidia will take over any computing capacity that remains unsold by April 2032. This has barely been discussed, but it may be the most important safety net in the whole story. There have also been reports that OpenAIโs actual revenue is $20 billion lower than previously estimated. If expectations for demand from the largest customer are weakening, then the $129 billion contracted backlog deserves a discount.
The fear-driven narrative is certainly alarming, but itโs also overly simplistic. If the contracted backlog converts on schedule, then interest coverage is just a matter of timing. The key word is โif.โ Whoever can survive this surge in the cost of capital will have the strongest moat in those long-term contracts. For now, letโs keep watching.
Data is based on public disclosures from the respective parties and does not constitute investment advice.
But the same company has around $129 billion in contracted revenue backlog, with Meta accounting for 27% and OpenAI for 17%. BofA has a Buy rating and a $140 price target, implying 105% upside. The CEO himself says the market is โirrational.โ The bond market thinks itโs about to die; equity analysts think it could doubleโand theyโre looking at the same financial statements...
What CoreWeave does is different from traditional hardware sales. It borrows money up front to stock up on GPUs, packages them as computing services, and rents them to customers through long-term contracts. Its balance sheet is full of debt, but the revenue side is supposed to turn into stable, recurring cash flow. Why are customers willing to sign long-term contracts? Because building their own clusters is too slow, too expensive, and too uncertain. In effect, CoreWeave takes on that uncertainty first by leveraging its own balance sheet, then sells the locked-in computing capacity. The more leverage it takes on, the more certainty it can offerโbut the more fragile it becomes.
A few details are worth noting. Gartner says around 80% of neocloud providers could shut down by 2030. Nvidia and CoreWeave have a backstop agreement: Nvidia will take over any computing capacity that remains unsold by April 2032. This has barely been discussed, but it may be the most important safety net in the whole story. There have also been reports that OpenAIโs actual revenue is $20 billion lower than previously estimated. If expectations for demand from the largest customer are weakening, then the $129 billion contracted backlog deserves a discount.
The fear-driven narrative is certainly alarming, but itโs also overly simplistic. If the contracted backlog converts on schedule, then interest coverage is just a matter of timing. The key word is โif.โ Whoever can survive this surge in the cost of capital will have the strongest moat in those long-term contracts. For now, letโs keep watching.
Data is based on public disclosures from the respective parties and does not constitute investment advice.
ANONY - SHAHID:
hey power pei
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Shares of AI cloud computing provider CoreWeave fell about 25% in total this week, while its total debt climbed to more than $51 billion. Its stocks and bonds both sold off, raising concerns about the sustainability of highly leveraged financing models and investment returns among AI infrastructure companies. Investors are questioning whether massive data center capital expenditures can generate sufficient commercial returns. The sentiment weighed on U.S. tech stocks: the Nasdaq fell more than 4% this week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index logged its eighth consecutive daily loss. Tesla, Netflix, and Meta will report earnings next week, potentially marking an important turning point for sentiment toward tech stocks.#็พ่ก #AI #CoreWeave
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Shares of AI cloud computing provider CoreWeave fell about 25% in total this week, while its total debt climbed to more than $51 billion. Its stocks and bonds both sold off, raising concerns about the sustainability of highly leveraged financing models and investment returns among AI infrastructure companies. Investors are questioning whether massive data center capital expenditures can generate sufficient commercial returns. The sentiment weighed on U.S. tech stocks: the Nasdaq fell more than 4% this week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index logged its eighth consecutive daily loss. Tesla, Netflix, and Meta will report earnings next week, potentially marking an important turning point for sentiment toward tech stocks.#็พ่ก #AI #CoreWeave
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
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CoreWeave Falls About 12% Again as the AI Debt Story ContinuesCoreWeave plunged again on Friday, down about 12%, bringing its losses for the week to more than 20%. The bigger concern isnโt just the share price: yields on the companyโs bonds briefly climbed to around 15%, while credit default swaps also moved into stress territory. The market is asking: What happens when you build up a pile of GPUs with borrowed money and that money gets more expensive?
At its core, this is about discount rates and the pace of debt repayment. AI infrastructure burns through cash quickly, while profits take time to materialize. When leverage is high, both valuations and bond markets can seize up. Other neocloud companies and the data center supply chain are also coming under scrutiny, and the anxiety is spreading quickly.
My own rule of thumb: You can still be bullish on the theme, but keep names with weak financing structures and high interest-rate sensitivity in a separate bucket and manage their position sizes carefully. Donโt translate โAI has long-term potentialโ into โgo ahead and pile into this leveraged stock.โ
CoreWeave Falls About 12% Again as the AI Debt Story Continues
CoreWeave plunged again on Friday, down about 12%, bringing its losses for the week to more than 20%. The bigger concern isnโt just the share price: yields on the companyโs bonds briefly climbed to around 15%, while credit default swaps also moved into stress territory. The market is asking: What happens when you build up a pile of GPUs with borrowed money and that money gets more expensive?
At its core, this is about discount rates and the pace of debt repayment. AI infrastructure burns through cash quickly, while profits take time to materialize. When leverage is high, both valuations and bond markets can seize up. Other neocloud companies and the data center supply chain are also coming under scrutiny, and the anxiety is spreading quickly.
My own rule of thumb: You can still be bullish on the theme, but keep names with weak financing structures and high interest-rate sensitivity in a separate bucket and manage their position sizes carefully. Donโt translate โAI has long-term potentialโ into โgo ahead and pile into this leveraged stock.โ
At its core, this is about discount rates and the pace of debt repayment. AI infrastructure burns through cash quickly, while profits take time to materialize. When leverage is high, both valuations and bond markets can seize up. Other neocloud companies and the data center supply chain are also coming under scrutiny, and the anxiety is spreading quickly.
My own rule of thumb: You can still be bullish on the theme, but keep names with weak financing structures and high interest-rate sensitivity in a separate bucket and manage their position sizes carefully. Donโt translate โAI has long-term potentialโ into โgo ahead and pile into this leveraged stock.โ
2
ใMarket FlashใExecutives head for the exits as the stock nearly halves: CoreWeaveโs warning sign isnโt its business, but insiders voting with their feet. Insiders have sold approximately $740 million worth of shares in total, including about $85 million sold by CEO Mike Intrator between September 15 and 30. Since the company joined the Nasdaq-100, its market capitalization has shed about $18 billion, while borrowing costs on its 2032 bonds have risen to an annualized 15%. As insiders accelerate their departure, should investors see this as a valuation reset or a loss of confidence?
(Source: Protos)
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#ๅธๅฎๅนฟๅบ #CoreWeave #AI
โ ๏ธRisk warning: The above is shared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please exercise caution.
ใMarket FlashใExecutives head for the exits as the stock nearly halves: CoreWeaveโs warning sign isnโt its business, but insiders voting with their feet. Insiders have sold approximately $740 million worth of shares in total, including about $85 million sold by CEO Mike Intrator between September 15 and 30. Since the company joined the Nasdaq-100, its market capitalization has shed about $18 billion, while borrowing costs on its 2032 bonds have risen to an annualized 15%. As insiders accelerate their departure, should investors see this as a valuation reset or a loss of confidence?
(Source: Protos)
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#ๅธๅฎๅนฟๅบ #CoreWeave #AI
โ ๏ธRisk warning: The above is shared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please exercise caution.
(Source: Protos)
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#ๅธๅฎๅนฟๅบ #CoreWeave #AI
โ ๏ธRisk warning: The above is shared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please exercise caution.
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Even the AI arms dealers canโt take it anymore? CoreWeave lost 12% in a single Friday!
What happened: AI cloud provider CoreWeave ($CRWV), which counts Nvidia among its investors, plunged 11.91% at Fridayโs U.S. market close, ending at $61.39. It touched an intraday low of $59.90, setting a new 52-week low. Reuters reported that it was the companyโs worst-performing week in 11 months, with a weekly decline of nearly 25%.
The trigger: debt. The market is worried about its debt burden of around $50 billion. Five-year CDS spreads surged to a record of around 1,195 basis points, while yields on bonds maturing in 2031 topped 16%โthe bond market has voted with its feet, betting that the company may not be able to repay (The Motley Fool). The backdrop is rising bets on interest rate hikes after Septemberโs hotter-than-expected CPI. AI infrastructure companies that rely on borrowing to expand are among the first to feel the squeeze.
The contagion has begun: peer Nebius fell 10% on Friday, while Applied Digital and IREN each dropped 9%. The Nasdaq closed down 2.15% on Friday, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight day.
Technicals: Support is at 59.90 (Fridayโs intraday low; a break below it could lead to further lows). Resistance is at 66.69 (Fridayโs gap) and 69.69 (Thursdayโs closing levelโthe line in the sand before the breakdown).
The play: Cautious and bearish in the short term. Until concerns about the debt have been fully absorbed, chasing a bounce is like catching a falling knife. The invalidation condition is clear: a high-volume close back above 69.69 would show that the bearish thesis has been disproven, and Iโd admit I was wrong.
Also, after Fed Chair Warshโs public remarks on Friday, market bets on a 25bp rate hike in October fell to around 15%, down from more than 27% in recent days. Before the FOMC meeting on October 27โ28, these expectations will continue to unsettle AI debt.
โ ๏ธ Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
#็พ่ก #AI #CoreWeave
Even the AI arms dealers canโt take it anymore? CoreWeave lost 12% in a single Friday!
What happened: AI cloud provider CoreWeave ($CRWV ), which counts Nvidia among its investors, plunged 11.91% at Fridayโs U.S. market close, ending at $61.39. It touched an intraday low of $59.90, setting a new 52-week low. Reuters reported that it was the companyโs worst-performing week in 11 months, with a weekly decline of nearly 25%.
The trigger: debt. The market is worried about its debt burden of around $50 billion. Five-year CDS spreads surged to a record of around 1,195 basis points, while yields on bonds maturing in 2031 topped 16%โthe bond market has voted with its feet, betting that the company may not be able to repay (The Motley Fool). The backdrop is rising bets on interest rate hikes after Septemberโs hotter-than-expected CPI. AI infrastructure companies that rely on borrowing to expand are among the first to feel the squeeze.
The contagion has begun: peer Nebius fell 10% on Friday, while Applied Digital and IREN each dropped 9%. The Nasdaq closed down 2.15% on Friday, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight day.
Technicals: Support is at 59.90 (Fridayโs intraday low; a break below it could lead to further lows). Resistance is at 66.69 (Fridayโs gap) and 69.69 (Thursdayโs closing levelโthe line in the sand before the breakdown).
The play: Cautious and bearish in the short term. Until concerns about the debt have been fully absorbed, chasing a bounce is like catching a falling knife. The invalidation condition is clear: a high-volume close back above 69.69 would show that the bearish thesis has been disproven, and Iโd admit I was wrong.
Also, after Fed Chair Warshโs public remarks on Friday, market bets on a 25bp rate hike in October fell to around 15%, down from more than 27% in recent days. Before the FOMC meeting on October 27โ28, these expectations will continue to unsettle AI debt.
โ ๏ธ Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
#็พ่ก #AI #CoreWeave
What happened: AI cloud provider CoreWeave ($CRWV ), which counts Nvidia among its investors, plunged 11.91% at Fridayโs U.S. market close, ending at $61.39. It touched an intraday low of $59.90, setting a new 52-week low. Reuters reported that it was the companyโs worst-performing week in 11 months, with a weekly decline of nearly 25%.
The trigger: debt. The market is worried about its debt burden of around $50 billion. Five-year CDS spreads surged to a record of around 1,195 basis points, while yields on bonds maturing in 2031 topped 16%โthe bond market has voted with its feet, betting that the company may not be able to repay (The Motley Fool). The backdrop is rising bets on interest rate hikes after Septemberโs hotter-than-expected CPI. AI infrastructure companies that rely on borrowing to expand are among the first to feel the squeeze.
The contagion has begun: peer Nebius fell 10% on Friday, while Applied Digital and IREN each dropped 9%. The Nasdaq closed down 2.15% on Friday, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight day.
Technicals: Support is at 59.90 (Fridayโs intraday low; a break below it could lead to further lows). Resistance is at 66.69 (Fridayโs gap) and 69.69 (Thursdayโs closing levelโthe line in the sand before the breakdown).
The play: Cautious and bearish in the short term. Until concerns about the debt have been fully absorbed, chasing a bounce is like catching a falling knife. The invalidation condition is clear: a high-volume close back above 69.69 would show that the bearish thesis has been disproven, and Iโd admit I was wrong.
Also, after Fed Chair Warshโs public remarks on Friday, market bets on a 25bp rate hike in October fell to around 15%, down from more than 27% in recent days. Before the FOMC meeting on October 27โ28, these expectations will continue to unsettle AI debt.
โ ๏ธ Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
#็พ่ก #AI #CoreWeave
192
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CoreWeave $CRWVB fell to an intraday low of $59.51 yesterday, down 9.5%, before reversing course to close up 5.94% at $69.69. It fell about 5% again in premarket trading today, returning to around $65.80.
Yesterdayโs rebound was driven by comments from Jensen Huang and a โbuying opportunityโ call from Deutsche Bank. But that same day, yields on its U.S. dollar bonds maturing in 2031 briefly topped 16%, the price of its unsecured bonds due in 2032 fell below 80 cents on the dollar, and its CDS spread surged past 1,000 basis points to a record high. The stock recovered quickly; credit markets did not.
Three factors are weighing on it in premarket trading today: lingering concerns about AI financing; Morningstarโs cut to its price target from $115 to $108, along with its view that newer cloud operators will be forced to borrow at higher costs; and the fact that the dilution from its previously announced share offering and convertible financing plans has yet to be fully accounted for.
Other stocks in the sector are not falling in tandem. Nebius $NBISB is down much less in premarket trading. It has very little net debt and raises funds through share offerings and convertible bonds.
The pressure is concentrated on the high-leverage financing route.
The key variable is on the bond side, not the stock side. After hotter-than-expected September CPI, the most interest-rate-sensitive AI stocks were the first to be repriced.
The above is a summary of public information and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #BStocks
CoreWeave $CRWVB fell to an intraday low of $59.51 yesterday, down 9.5%, before reversing course to close up 5.94% at $69.69. It fell about 5% again in premarket trading today, returning to around $65.80.
Yesterdayโs rebound was driven by comments from Jensen Huang and a โbuying opportunityโ call from Deutsche Bank. But that same day, yields on its U.S. dollar bonds maturing in 2031 briefly topped 16%, the price of its unsecured bonds due in 2032 fell below 80 cents on the dollar, and its CDS spread surged past 1,000 basis points to a record high. The stock recovered quickly; credit markets did not.
Three factors are weighing on it in premarket trading today: lingering concerns about AI financing; Morningstarโs cut to its price target from $115 to $108, along with its view that newer cloud operators will be forced to borrow at higher costs; and the fact that the dilution from its previously announced share offering and convertible financing plans has yet to be fully accounted for.
Other stocks in the sector are not falling in tandem. Nebius $NBISB is down much less in premarket trading. It has very little net debt and raises funds through share offerings and convertible bonds.
The pressure is concentrated on the high-leverage financing route.
The key variable is on the bond side, not the stock side. After hotter-than-expected September CPI, the most interest-rate-sensitive AI stocks were the first to be repriced.
The above is a summary of public information and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #BStocks
Yesterdayโs rebound was driven by comments from Jensen Huang and a โbuying opportunityโ call from Deutsche Bank. But that same day, yields on its U.S. dollar bonds maturing in 2031 briefly topped 16%, the price of its unsecured bonds due in 2032 fell below 80 cents on the dollar, and its CDS spread surged past 1,000 basis points to a record high. The stock recovered quickly; credit markets did not.
Three factors are weighing on it in premarket trading today: lingering concerns about AI financing; Morningstarโs cut to its price target from $115 to $108, along with its view that newer cloud operators will be forced to borrow at higher costs; and the fact that the dilution from its previously announced share offering and convertible financing plans has yet to be fully accounted for.
Other stocks in the sector are not falling in tandem. Nebius $NBISB is down much less in premarket trading. It has very little net debt and raises funds through share offerings and convertible bonds.
The pressure is concentrated on the high-leverage financing route.
The key variable is on the bond side, not the stock side. After hotter-than-expected September CPI, the most interest-rate-sensitive AI stocks were the first to be repriced.
The above is a summary of public information and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #BStocks
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The overnight U.S. stock market drama was way more intense than crypto.
$CRWV five-year CDS just hit 1,194 basis points, a record high, and 2031 bonds fell to 82 cents. Huang came right out and said: no bailout. Meanwhile, Anthropicโs IPO valuation was slashed from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. The moment growth slows, capital turns on you faster than you can blink. The veil over AI debt has finally been lifted, and $BTC now moves in lockstep with AI trades. Dream on if you think you can stay untouched.
The macro picture is even worse. September PPI came in at 6.3%, against expectations of just 5.3%, reigniting rate-hike fears. Gold has already surged to 4,170. An oil tanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz: geopolitical risk and inflation are hitting at once, and risk assets are getting hammered across the board.
Two more things worth a quick mention: Russiaโs central bank confirmed it plans to ban P2P Bitcoin trading, which would leave retail traders with only exchanges; and the WSJ exposed Polymarketโs inner workings: ten wallets control more than half of UMAโs voting power. A decentralized prediction market, apparentlyโwhere the whales call the shots.
My take is simple: when the AI narrative starts to crack, altcoins will only fall harder. Keep your hands off and donโt try to catch a falling knife.
#BTC #็พ่ๅจๅ ๆฏ #CoreWeave #Polymarket #CryptoMarket
NFA DYOR
The overnight U.S. stock market drama was way more intense than crypto.
$CRWV five-year CDS just hit 1,194 basis points, a record high, and 2031 bonds fell to 82 cents. Huang came right out and said: no bailout. Meanwhile, Anthropicโs IPO valuation was slashed from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. The moment growth slows, capital turns on you faster than you can blink. The veil over AI debt has finally been lifted, and $BTC now moves in lockstep with AI trades. Dream on if you think you can stay untouched.
The macro picture is even worse. September PPI came in at 6.3%, against expectations of just 5.3%, reigniting rate-hike fears. Gold has already surged to 4,170. An oil tanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz: geopolitical risk and inflation are hitting at once, and risk assets are getting hammered across the board.
Two more things worth a quick mention: Russiaโs central bank confirmed it plans to ban P2P Bitcoin trading, which would leave retail traders with only exchanges; and the WSJ exposed Polymarketโs inner workings: ten wallets control more than half of UMAโs voting power. A decentralized prediction market, apparentlyโwhere the whales call the shots.
My take is simple: when the AI narrative starts to crack, altcoins will only fall harder. Keep your hands off and donโt try to catch a falling knife.
#BTC #็พ่ๅจๅ ๆฏ #CoreWeave #Polymarket #CryptoMarket
NFA DYOR
$CRWV five-year CDS just hit 1,194 basis points, a record high, and 2031 bonds fell to 82 cents. Huang came right out and said: no bailout. Meanwhile, Anthropicโs IPO valuation was slashed from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. The moment growth slows, capital turns on you faster than you can blink. The veil over AI debt has finally been lifted, and $BTC now moves in lockstep with AI trades. Dream on if you think you can stay untouched.
The macro picture is even worse. September PPI came in at 6.3%, against expectations of just 5.3%, reigniting rate-hike fears. Gold has already surged to 4,170. An oil tanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz: geopolitical risk and inflation are hitting at once, and risk assets are getting hammered across the board.
Two more things worth a quick mention: Russiaโs central bank confirmed it plans to ban P2P Bitcoin trading, which would leave retail traders with only exchanges; and the WSJ exposed Polymarketโs inner workings: ten wallets control more than half of UMAโs voting power. A decentralized prediction market, apparentlyโwhere the whales call the shots.
My take is simple: when the AI narrative starts to crack, altcoins will only fall harder. Keep your hands off and donโt try to catch a falling knife.
#BTC #็พ่ๅจๅ ๆฏ #CoreWeave #Polymarket #CryptoMarket
NFA DYOR
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CoreWeave's debt crisis draws attention
The debt crisis at AI computing company CoreWeave exposes vulnerabilities in the industry chain and signals a shift in capital markets' attitudes. #AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #MarketWatch
CoreWeave's debt crisis draws attention
The debt crisis at AI computing company CoreWeave exposes vulnerabilities in the industry chain and signals a shift in capital markets' attitudes. #AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #MarketWatch
The debt crisis at AI computing company CoreWeave exposes vulnerabilities in the industry chain and signals a shift in capital markets' attitudes. #AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #MarketWatch
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CoreWeave $CRWVB fell 9.5% intraday yesterday, then reversed course to close up 5.94% at $69.69. The day before, it had just plunged 15.46%.
The rebound came after comments from Jensen Huang. In an interview with Bloomberg in Stockholm, he said CoreWeave was getting stronger every day, its financing costs were falling, and Nvidia did not need to provide it with financial backing.
The bond market didnโt change its tune. That same day, CoreWeaveโs 5-year CDS surged to a record 1,194.5 basis points, implying a 5-year default probability of more than 60%. The stock market believed it; the credit market did not.
The speaker has a stake in the company: Nvidia $NVDAB owns nearly 10%, making it the second-largest shareholder as well as a GPU supplier. It also has a $6.3 billion compute-capacity offtake agreement, under which it must buy any unsold capacity through April 2032. The key variable lies on the bond sideโwhether the bonds due in 2032 can recover to around face value says more than the share price.
The above is a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #BStocks
CoreWeave $CRWVB fell 9.5% intraday yesterday, then reversed course to close up 5.94% at $69.69. The day before, it had just plunged 15.46%.
The rebound came after comments from Jensen Huang. In an interview with Bloomberg in Stockholm, he said CoreWeave was getting stronger every day, its financing costs were falling, and Nvidia did not need to provide it with financial backing.
The bond market didnโt change its tune. That same day, CoreWeaveโs 5-year CDS surged to a record 1,194.5 basis points, implying a 5-year default probability of more than 60%. The stock market believed it; the credit market did not.
The speaker has a stake in the company: Nvidia $NVDAB owns nearly 10%, making it the second-largest shareholder as well as a GPU supplier. It also has a $6.3 billion compute-capacity offtake agreement, under which it must buy any unsold capacity through April 2032. The key variable lies on the bond sideโwhether the bonds due in 2032 can recover to around face value says more than the share price.
The above is a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #BStocks
The rebound came after comments from Jensen Huang. In an interview with Bloomberg in Stockholm, he said CoreWeave was getting stronger every day, its financing costs were falling, and Nvidia did not need to provide it with financial backing.
The bond market didnโt change its tune. That same day, CoreWeaveโs 5-year CDS surged to a record 1,194.5 basis points, implying a 5-year default probability of more than 60%. The stock market believed it; the credit market did not.
The speaker has a stake in the company: Nvidia $NVDAB owns nearly 10%, making it the second-largest shareholder as well as a GPU supplier. It also has a $6.3 billion compute-capacity offtake agreement, under which it must buy any unsold capacity through April 2032. The key variable lies on the bond sideโwhether the bonds due in 2032 can recover to around face value says more than the share price.
The above is a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #BStocks
ๆๆ่ทๆปดๆปดๆ้ฑ่ฎฐ:
่ฟไบๅฟๆบๆๆๆใ้ปไปๅไธๅผๅฃ๏ผ่กไปทๅฝๅคฉๅฐฑไป็ปฟ็ๆๅ็บข็๏ผไฟก็จๅธๅบ้ฃ่พนๅๆ นไธๆฅ่ฟ่ฌ๏ผ่ฟ็บฆไฟ้ฉๆๆฌ่ฟๅจๅพไธ้กถใไธ่พน็็ๆฏๆ
ไบๅ่ฎขๅ๏ผไธ่พน็ฎ็ๆฏ่ดฆไธ่ฟไธ่ฟๅพ่ตทๅฉๆฏ๏ผๆฉๆๆไธ่พน่ฆๆนๅฃใ
ๆ่ชๅทฑ็ฌจๅๆณ๏ผๅ
ๆ่ฟไบๆพ่ฟ่งๅฏๆธ
ๅ๏ผ็ญๅช่พนๅ
ๆพๅฃใ่ฏดๅฐ่ฟๅฟ๏ผๅฝไธช่งๅฏ็ฌ่ฎฐ็ฟป็ฟปๅฐฑ่กใ
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Golden opportunity in the #IA sector!
Dan Ives calls infrastructure stock plunge a massive buying opportunity
Wedbushโs bullish outlook amid market doubts
Recent double-digit declines in AI infrastructure giants like #CoreWeave (CRWV), #iren (IREN), and #nebius (#NBIS ) are not a warning sign, but a strategic entry point for long-term investors. Thatโs the view of Dan Ives, renowned analyst at Wedbush Securities, who insists the sectorโs fundamentals remain intact despite financial pressures.
Market panic vs. buying opportunity: Sector stocks suffered steep declinesโled by CoreWeave (-15.46%), IREN (-12.18%), and Nebius (-10.08%)โdriven by concerns about debt and rising capital costs. For Ives, this correction represents a clear buying opportunity, not a shift in the underlying trend.
Insatiable demand (13 to 1): Despite higher financing costs resulting from rising interest rates, demand for AI computing capacity shows no letup. Current demand for microchips is reportedly outstripping available supply by an overwhelming ratio of 13 to 1.
Major infrastructure project on the horizon: To address the computing shortfall, Ives projects that between 800 and 1,000 new data centers will be built worldwide in the coming years.
The impact of macroeconomics: The analysisโs central message is to separate the cost of money from technology adoption: rising interest rates make financing and expanding AI infrastructure more expensive, but do not diminish companiesโ actual demand for computing power.
$CRWVB
{spot}(CRWVBUSDT)
$IRENB
{spot}(IRENBUSDT)
$NBISB
{spot}(NBISBUSDT)
Golden opportunity in the #IA sector!
Dan Ives calls infrastructure stock plunge a massive buying opportunity
Wedbushโs bullish outlook amid market doubts
Recent double-digit declines in AI infrastructure giants like #CoreWeave (CRWV), #iren (IREN), and #nebius (#NBIS ) are not a warning sign, but a strategic entry point for long-term investors. Thatโs the view of Dan Ives, renowned analyst at Wedbush Securities, who insists the sectorโs fundamentals remain intact despite financial pressures.
Market panic vs. buying opportunity: Sector stocks suffered steep declinesโled by CoreWeave (-15.46%), IREN (-12.18%), and Nebius (-10.08%)โdriven by concerns about debt and rising capital costs. For Ives, this correction represents a clear buying opportunity, not a shift in the underlying trend.
Insatiable demand (13 to 1): Despite higher financing costs resulting from rising interest rates, demand for AI computing capacity shows no letup. Current demand for microchips is reportedly outstripping available supply by an overwhelming ratio of 13 to 1.
Major infrastructure project on the horizon: To address the computing shortfall, Ives projects that between 800 and 1,000 new data centers will be built worldwide in the coming years.
The impact of macroeconomics: The analysisโs central message is to separate the cost of money from technology adoption: rising interest rates make financing and expanding AI infrastructure more expensive, but do not diminish companiesโ actual demand for computing power.
$CRWVB
$IRENB
$NBISB
Dan Ives calls infrastructure stock plunge a massive buying opportunity
Wedbushโs bullish outlook amid market doubts
Recent double-digit declines in AI infrastructure giants like #CoreWeave (CRWV), #iren (IREN), and #nebius (#NBIS ) are not a warning sign, but a strategic entry point for long-term investors. Thatโs the view of Dan Ives, renowned analyst at Wedbush Securities, who insists the sectorโs fundamentals remain intact despite financial pressures.
Market panic vs. buying opportunity: Sector stocks suffered steep declinesโled by CoreWeave (-15.46%), IREN (-12.18%), and Nebius (-10.08%)โdriven by concerns about debt and rising capital costs. For Ives, this correction represents a clear buying opportunity, not a shift in the underlying trend.
Insatiable demand (13 to 1): Despite higher financing costs resulting from rising interest rates, demand for AI computing capacity shows no letup. Current demand for microchips is reportedly outstripping available supply by an overwhelming ratio of 13 to 1.
Major infrastructure project on the horizon: To address the computing shortfall, Ives projects that between 800 and 1,000 new data centers will be built worldwide in the coming years.
The impact of macroeconomics: The analysisโs central message is to separate the cost of money from technology adoption: rising interest rates make financing and expanding AI infrastructure more expensive, but do not diminish companiesโ actual demand for computing power.
$CRWVB
$IRENB
$NBISB
3
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๐ฏ Deutsche Bank says CoreWeave has 128% upsideโis it time to buy the dip or catch a falling knife?
๐ฐ U.S. AI computing stock CoreWeave plunged 15%+ overnight, but Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating and $150 price target
๐ฌ Institutions are still bullish after a drop like thisโitโs either a real bargain or theyโre in too deep. BTC has plunged to $81K. When AI catches a cold, crypto gets sick tooโthe correlation is way too tight.
๐ท๏ธ #CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #่ฑไผ่พพ #InstitutionalHoldings
๐ฏ Deutsche Bank says CoreWeave has 128% upsideโis it time to buy the dip or catch a falling knife?
๐ฐ U.S. AI computing stock CoreWeave plunged 15%+ overnight, but Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating and $150 price target
๐ฌ Institutions are still bullish after a drop like thisโitโs either a real bargain or theyโre in too deep. BTC has plunged to $81K. When AI catches a cold, crypto gets sick tooโthe correlation is way too tight.
๐ท๏ธ #CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #่ฑไผ่พพ #InstitutionalHoldings
๐ฐ U.S. AI computing stock CoreWeave plunged 15%+ overnight, but Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating and $150 price target
๐ฌ Institutions are still bullish after a drop like thisโitโs either a real bargain or theyโre in too deep. BTC has plunged to $81K. When AI catches a cold, crypto gets sick tooโthe correlation is way too tight.
๐ท๏ธ #CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ #่ฑไผ่พพ #InstitutionalHoldings
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CoreWeave $CRWVB suffered a double hit to its stock and bonds on Wednesday, with its share price falling 15.46%. Oracle $ORCLB was also dragged down.
Its 2032 bonds carry a 9.625% coupon, but their price has fallen below 80 cents on the dollar. The yield to maturity is around 14.8%, and the spread over Treasuries has crossed the 1,000-basis-point warning threshold for default risk. The cost of five-year CDS has risen to around 881 basis points, implying a default probability of more than 50%.
One thing needs to be made clear. The coupon is fixed, so a yield spike to 15% does not change the interest expense on bonds already issued; it reprices the next round of financing. But the books were already tight: second-quarter revenue was $2.575 billion, adjusted operating profit was $128 million, and net interest expense was $640 millionโfive times operating profit. A $104.2 billion backlog sounds huge, but orders are not cash.
The trigger was a hotter-than-expected CPI reading that pushed up long-term rates, with the 30-year Treasury briefly touching 5.63%. Oracle's bond yield rose to 7.24%, and the cost of default protection for both companies hit all-time highs. This looks more like credit differentiation than the start of industry-wide defaults. Two variables to watch: whether yields can stay below 15%, and the terms of the next financing round.
{spot}(ORCLBUSDT)
{spot}(CRWVBUSDT)
#CoreWeave #็ฒ้ชจๆๅบๅธๅฎไปทๅดฉ่ฃ #BStocks
CoreWeave $CRWVB suffered a double hit to its stock and bonds on Wednesday, with its share price falling 15.46%. Oracle $ORCLB was also dragged down.
Its 2032 bonds carry a 9.625% coupon, but their price has fallen below 80 cents on the dollar. The yield to maturity is around 14.8%, and the spread over Treasuries has crossed the 1,000-basis-point warning threshold for default risk. The cost of five-year CDS has risen to around 881 basis points, implying a default probability of more than 50%.
One thing needs to be made clear. The coupon is fixed, so a yield spike to 15% does not change the interest expense on bonds already issued; it reprices the next round of financing. But the books were already tight: second-quarter revenue was $2.575 billion, adjusted operating profit was $128 million, and net interest expense was $640 millionโfive times operating profit. A $104.2 billion backlog sounds huge, but orders are not cash.
The trigger was a hotter-than-expected CPI reading that pushed up long-term rates, with the 30-year Treasury briefly touching 5.63%. Oracle's bond yield rose to 7.24%, and the cost of default protection for both companies hit all-time highs. This looks more like credit differentiation than the start of industry-wide defaults. Two variables to watch: whether yields can stay below 15%, and the terms of the next financing round.
#CoreWeave #็ฒ้ชจๆๅบๅธๅฎไปทๅดฉ่ฃ #BStocks
Its 2032 bonds carry a 9.625% coupon, but their price has fallen below 80 cents on the dollar. The yield to maturity is around 14.8%, and the spread over Treasuries has crossed the 1,000-basis-point warning threshold for default risk. The cost of five-year CDS has risen to around 881 basis points, implying a default probability of more than 50%.
One thing needs to be made clear. The coupon is fixed, so a yield spike to 15% does not change the interest expense on bonds already issued; it reprices the next round of financing. But the books were already tight: second-quarter revenue was $2.575 billion, adjusted operating profit was $128 million, and net interest expense was $640 millionโfive times operating profit. A $104.2 billion backlog sounds huge, but orders are not cash.
The trigger was a hotter-than-expected CPI reading that pushed up long-term rates, with the 30-year Treasury briefly touching 5.63%. Oracle's bond yield rose to 7.24%, and the cost of default protection for both companies hit all-time highs. This looks more like credit differentiation than the start of industry-wide defaults. Two variables to watch: whether yields can stay below 15%, and the terms of the next financing round.
#CoreWeave #็ฒ้ชจๆๅบๅธๅฎไปทๅดฉ่ฃ #BStocks
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#CoreWeave Update ๐
$CRWVB/USDT: 81.50 (+1.38%)
CRWVB recovered from the 79.40 area and is now climbing slowly through the 81+ zone. Price is above MA(7), MA(25) and MA(99), which points to a short-term bullish structure. ๐ฅ
๐น **Resistance:** 81.72 (24h high) โ 82.03
๐น **Support:** 81.15 (MA99) โ 80.14 (24h low) โ 79.40
๐น **24h Volume:** 169.9K USDT
๐น **Underlying Stock (CRWV):** $81.28 (+1.85%)
๐ After the recovery, price is printing higher lows in a tight range, but volume is still low. A breakout above 82.03 with volume could open the way to 82.86. If 81.15 fails, a retest of 80.14 is possible.
๐ก bStocks also come with 0 Maker Fee. ๐
What do you think: breakout or pullback? ๐
โ ๏ธ Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
#CRWVB
#CoreWeave Update ๐
$CRWVB/USDT: 81.50 (+1.38%)
CRWVB recovered from the 79.40 area and is now climbing slowly through the 81+ zone. Price is above MA(7), MA(25) and MA(99), which points to a short-term bullish structure. ๐ฅ
๐น **Resistance:** 81.72 (24h high) โ 82.03
๐น **Support:** 81.15 (MA99) โ 80.14 (24h low) โ 79.40
๐น **24h Volume:** 169.9K USDT
๐น **Underlying Stock (CRWV):** $81.28 (+1.85%)
๐ After the recovery, price is printing higher lows in a tight range, but volume is still low. A breakout above 82.03 with volume could open the way to 82.86. If 81.15 fails, a retest of 80.14 is possible.
๐ก bStocks also come with 0 Maker Fee. ๐
What do you think: breakout or pullback? ๐
โ ๏ธ Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
#CRWVB
$CRWVB/USDT: 81.50 (+1.38%)
CRWVB recovered from the 79.40 area and is now climbing slowly through the 81+ zone. Price is above MA(7), MA(25) and MA(99), which points to a short-term bullish structure. ๐ฅ
๐น **Resistance:** 81.72 (24h high) โ 82.03
๐น **Support:** 81.15 (MA99) โ 80.14 (24h low) โ 79.40
๐น **24h Volume:** 169.9K USDT
๐น **Underlying Stock (CRWV):** $81.28 (+1.85%)
๐ After the recovery, price is printing higher lows in a tight range, but volume is still low. A breakout above 82.03 with volume could open the way to 82.86. If 81.15 fails, a retest of 80.14 is possible.
๐ก bStocks also come with 0 Maker Fee. ๐
What do you think: breakout or pullback? ๐
โ ๏ธ Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
#CRWVB
104
$CRWVB has 10.42 billion USD worth of orders in hand, yet on September 17 it opened two financing channels at the same time:
Plans to issue a $3.0 billion convertible bond, with the buyer able to add another $0.5 billion; also set a maximum ATM share-sale capacity of 35 million shares. The quota is not equal to shares already sold.๏ฟผ
The company also disclosed that in early Q3 it signed customer commitments of over $25 billion again, and contracted power capacity increased to 4.2 GW.
The market calculates dilution first. On the day, the Nasdaq rose 1.69%, while $CRWV fell 4.2%.
Donโt just look at the โbillion-level ordersโ and go all-in! Wait for the bond interest rate, the conversion price, and the share-selling schedule to land; if the stock price recovers the prior closing price before the announcement, and free cash flow improves next quarter, then reduce positions in batches again!
If 35 million shares are issued quickly and debt continues to grow faster than revenue, then this judgment is invalid.
AI cloud orders will be in the futureโyet the money for the data center has to be paid today.
#CRWV #CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ
{future}(CRWVUSDT)
$CRWVB has 10.42 billion USD worth of orders in hand, yet on September 17 it opened two financing channels at the same time:
Plans to issue a $3.0 billion convertible bond, with the buyer able to add another $0.5 billion; also set a maximum ATM share-sale capacity of 35 million shares. The quota is not equal to shares already sold.๏ฟผ
The company also disclosed that in early Q3 it signed customer commitments of over $25 billion again, and contracted power capacity increased to 4.2 GW.
The market calculates dilution first. On the day, the Nasdaq rose 1.69%, while $CRWV fell 4.2%.
Donโt just look at the โbillion-level ordersโ and go all-in! Wait for the bond interest rate, the conversion price, and the share-selling schedule to land; if the stock price recovers the prior closing price before the announcement, and free cash flow improves next quarter, then reduce positions in batches again!
If 35 million shares are issued quickly and debt continues to grow faster than revenue, then this judgment is invalid.
AI cloud orders will be in the futureโyet the money for the data center has to be paid today.
#CRWV #CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ
Plans to issue a $3.0 billion convertible bond, with the buyer able to add another $0.5 billion; also set a maximum ATM share-sale capacity of 35 million shares. The quota is not equal to shares already sold.๏ฟผ
The company also disclosed that in early Q3 it signed customer commitments of over $25 billion again, and contracted power capacity increased to 4.2 GW.
The market calculates dilution first. On the day, the Nasdaq rose 1.69%, while $CRWV fell 4.2%.
Donโt just look at the โbillion-level ordersโ and go all-in! Wait for the bond interest rate, the conversion price, and the share-selling schedule to land; if the stock price recovers the prior closing price before the announcement, and free cash flow improves next quarter, then reduce positions in batches again!
If 35 million shares are issued quickly and debt continues to grow faster than revenue, then this judgment is invalid.
AI cloud orders will be in the futureโyet the money for the data center has to be paid today.
#CRWV #CoreWeave #AI็ฎๅ
1
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CoreWeave plunges 13% in a single day, and HPC and new cloud concept stocks all weaken.
The trigger was a rumor coming from Metaโmarkets started to doubt whether hyperscale vendorsโ pace of AI compute purchases is about to slow down. Once expectations for orders from top-tier customers are revised downward, those new cloud stocks whose valuations are propped up mainly by the โAI compute narrativeโ will have more room to pull back than people think.
My view: this selloff isnโt driven by fundamentals, but by the gap between expectations. CoreWeaveโs revenue is highly concentrated among a handful of major customers. In a bull market, nobody talks about customer concentration riskโthen the moment thereโs a hint of trouble, they cash out in a concentrated way.
This is also not completely unrelated to the crypto marketโsentiment in the AI+Crypto sector will, to some extent, transmit along this chain. In the short term, you can watch the capital flows into compute-related tokens. If pessimism from traditional markets spreads, targets like $TAO $RENDER may face pressure first.
#AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #New cloud stocks
CoreWeave plunges 13% in a single day, and HPC and new cloud concept stocks all weaken.
The trigger was a rumor coming from Metaโmarkets started to doubt whether hyperscale vendorsโ pace of AI compute purchases is about to slow down. Once expectations for orders from top-tier customers are revised downward, those new cloud stocks whose valuations are propped up mainly by the โAI compute narrativeโ will have more room to pull back than people think.
My view: this selloff isnโt driven by fundamentals, but by the gap between expectations. CoreWeaveโs revenue is highly concentrated among a handful of major customers. In a bull market, nobody talks about customer concentration riskโthen the moment thereโs a hint of trouble, they cash out in a concentrated way.
This is also not completely unrelated to the crypto marketโsentiment in the AI+Crypto sector will, to some extent, transmit along this chain. In the short term, you can watch the capital flows into compute-related tokens. If pessimism from traditional markets spreads, targets like $TAO $RENDER may face pressure first.
#AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #New cloud stocks
The trigger was a rumor coming from Metaโmarkets started to doubt whether hyperscale vendorsโ pace of AI compute purchases is about to slow down. Once expectations for orders from top-tier customers are revised downward, those new cloud stocks whose valuations are propped up mainly by the โAI compute narrativeโ will have more room to pull back than people think.
My view: this selloff isnโt driven by fundamentals, but by the gap between expectations. CoreWeaveโs revenue is highly concentrated among a handful of major customers. In a bull market, nobody talks about customer concentration riskโthen the moment thereโs a hint of trouble, they cash out in a concentrated way.
This is also not completely unrelated to the crypto marketโsentiment in the AI+Crypto sector will, to some extent, transmit along this chain. In the short term, you can watch the capital flows into compute-related tokens. If pessimism from traditional markets spreads, targets like $TAO $RENDER may face pressure first.
#AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #New cloud stocks
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CoreWeaveโs Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with the stock price up 17% before the open, directly lifting sentiment across the entire software sector. Nebius Group also surged 9.4%, and AI compute concept stocks once again became the focus of the market.
Key takeaways from this earnings report:
1. Both revenue and order backlog exceeded expectations, confirming real growth in AI compute demand
2. The composition of large customers and the progress of capacity expansion were recognized by the market, easing earlier concerns about capital expenditures
3. Clear sector linkage effectsโ$CRWV and $NBIS moved up in sync, with capital flowing back into the AI software track
In the short term, earnings-driven momentum often provides 1โ3 days of sentiment premium, making it worth watching for the follow-through after volume picks up. But itโs also important to note that when pre-market gains are large, thereโs a relatively high chance of a pullback after the openโchasing the price should be done cautiously.
Over the medium to long term, whatโs more worth tracking is the actual pace at which GPU compute supply-demand and inference-side demand are being realized. Whether earnings can continue to beat expectations is the fundamental support for the sector to keep running strong.
#AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #Nebius
CoreWeaveโs Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with the stock price up 17% before the open, directly lifting sentiment across the entire software sector. Nebius Group also surged 9.4%, and AI compute concept stocks once again became the focus of the market.
Key takeaways from this earnings report:
1. Both revenue and order backlog exceeded expectations, confirming real growth in AI compute demand
2. The composition of large customers and the progress of capacity expansion were recognized by the market, easing earlier concerns about capital expenditures
3. Clear sector linkage effectsโ$CRWV and $NBIS moved up in sync, with capital flowing back into the AI software track
In the short term, earnings-driven momentum often provides 1โ3 days of sentiment premium, making it worth watching for the follow-through after volume picks up. But itโs also important to note that when pre-market gains are large, thereโs a relatively high chance of a pullback after the openโchasing the price should be done cautiously.
Over the medium to long term, whatโs more worth tracking is the actual pace at which GPU compute supply-demand and inference-side demand are being realized. Whether earnings can continue to beat expectations is the fundamental support for the sector to keep running strong.
#AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #Nebius
Key takeaways from this earnings report:
1. Both revenue and order backlog exceeded expectations, confirming real growth in AI compute demand
2. The composition of large customers and the progress of capacity expansion were recognized by the market, easing earlier concerns about capital expenditures
3. Clear sector linkage effectsโ$CRWV and $NBIS moved up in sync, with capital flowing back into the AI software track
In the short term, earnings-driven momentum often provides 1โ3 days of sentiment premium, making it worth watching for the follow-through after volume picks up. But itโs also important to note that when pre-market gains are large, thereโs a relatively high chance of a pullback after the openโchasing the price should be done cautiously.
Over the medium to long term, whatโs more worth tracking is the actual pace at which GPU compute supply-demand and inference-side demand are being realized. Whether earnings can continue to beat expectations is the fundamental support for the sector to keep running strong.
#AI็ฎๅ #CoreWeave #Nebius
167
ยท
--
๐ฅ CRWV/USDT 4H Setup
CRWV is showing strong bullish momentum, currently around 100.42 (+10.15%) with a huge volume spike. Price remains above MA(7) 95.33, MA(25) 91.50 & MA(99) 86.92.
๐ Resistance: 104.55 โ 106 โ 110
๐ Support: 100 โ 94.6 โ 91.5
๐ Bullish: Hold above 100 and reclaim 104.55
โ ๏ธ A pullback is possible after the sharp breakout.
Strong momentum, but avoid chasing the spike. Manage risk & DYOR.
#CRWV #CoreWeave #Crypto #Binance #Trading
{future}(CRWVUSDT)
๐ฅ CRWV/USDT 4H Setup
CRWV is showing strong bullish momentum, currently around 100.42 (+10.15%) with a huge volume spike. Price remains above MA(7) 95.33, MA(25) 91.50 & MA(99) 86.92.
๐ Resistance: 104.55 โ 106 โ 110
๐ Support: 100 โ 94.6 โ 91.5
๐ Bullish: Hold above 100 and reclaim 104.55
โ ๏ธ A pullback is possible after the sharp breakout.
Strong momentum, but avoid chasing the spike. Manage risk & DYOR.
#CRWV #CoreWeave #Crypto #Binance #Trading
CRWV is showing strong bullish momentum, currently around 100.42 (+10.15%) with a huge volume spike. Price remains above MA(7) 95.33, MA(25) 91.50 & MA(99) 86.92.
๐ Resistance: 104.55 โ 106 โ 110
๐ Support: 100 โ 94.6 โ 91.5
๐ Bullish: Hold above 100 and reclaim 104.55
โ ๏ธ A pullback is possible after the sharp breakout.
Strong momentum, but avoid chasing the spike. Manage risk & DYOR.
#CRWV #CoreWeave #Crypto #Binance #Trading
31
ยท
--
CoreWeave plunges 13% in a single nightโHPC and new cloud concept stocks all weaken together, with the trigger being related news from Meta.
The marketโs pricing of the AI computing power narrative has started to loosen. Not long ago, investors chased these kinds of names to an extreme, with valuations already pricing in several yearsโ worth of future compute-demand expectations. Any piece of negative news would be amplified. What does Metaโs news indicate? Large-scale customersโ reliance on third-party GPU cloud services is not set in stone. If they build their own capacity or adjust their procurement timeline, the โwater sellerโ story will be discounted.
The takeaway for the crypto space is equally clear: on-chain compute narratives and decentralized GPU projects previously also rode the same beta. If traditional HPC stocks begin to revert in valuation, the premium logic behind related tokens needs to be re-examined as well. Donโt treat the AI narrative as an invincibility cardโcash flow and customer concentration are the real yardsticks.
In the short term, keep an eye on whether more ultra-large-scale vendors follow similar moves; this will determine whether this drop is an emotion-driven selloff or a logic-driven one.
#AI #HPC #CoreWeave
CoreWeave plunges 13% in a single nightโHPC and new cloud concept stocks all weaken together, with the trigger being related news from Meta.
The marketโs pricing of the AI computing power narrative has started to loosen. Not long ago, investors chased these kinds of names to an extreme, with valuations already pricing in several yearsโ worth of future compute-demand expectations. Any piece of negative news would be amplified. What does Metaโs news indicate? Large-scale customersโ reliance on third-party GPU cloud services is not set in stone. If they build their own capacity or adjust their procurement timeline, the โwater sellerโ story will be discounted.
The takeaway for the crypto space is equally clear: on-chain compute narratives and decentralized GPU projects previously also rode the same beta. If traditional HPC stocks begin to revert in valuation, the premium logic behind related tokens needs to be re-examined as well. Donโt treat the AI narrative as an invincibility cardโcash flow and customer concentration are the real yardsticks.
In the short term, keep an eye on whether more ultra-large-scale vendors follow similar moves; this will determine whether this drop is an emotion-driven selloff or a logic-driven one.
#AI #HPC #CoreWeave
The marketโs pricing of the AI computing power narrative has started to loosen. Not long ago, investors chased these kinds of names to an extreme, with valuations already pricing in several yearsโ worth of future compute-demand expectations. Any piece of negative news would be amplified. What does Metaโs news indicate? Large-scale customersโ reliance on third-party GPU cloud services is not set in stone. If they build their own capacity or adjust their procurement timeline, the โwater sellerโ story will be discounted.
The takeaway for the crypto space is equally clear: on-chain compute narratives and decentralized GPU projects previously also rode the same beta. If traditional HPC stocks begin to revert in valuation, the premium logic behind related tokens needs to be re-examined as well. Donโt treat the AI narrative as an invincibility cardโcash flow and customer concentration are the real yardsticks.
In the short term, keep an eye on whether more ultra-large-scale vendors follow similar moves; this will determine whether this drop is an emotion-driven selloff or a logic-driven one.
#AI #HPC #CoreWeave
93
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