ETH's Midlife Crisis: At the $2,000 Threshold, Are We Bottom Fishing or Catching a Falling Knife?
Date: February 18, 2026 Asset: Ethereum (ETH) Current price: $1,990 - $2,010 If BTC is the gold of the crypto world, then ETH has behaved more like an underperforming blue-chip stock in the past six months.
From the peak of $4,900 in 2025 to now $2,000, the nearly 60% retracement not only shattered the bulls' faith but also exposed Ethereum's structural weaknesses in the current cycle. Standing at the psychological level of $2,000, the market is filled with voices of 'it can't fall any further.' However, in my view, this looks more like a 'gas station' for a downward continuation rather than a 'launch pad' for a reversal.
On the second day of the Lunar New Year, I was almost fooled by my relative's AI startup PPT.
Today is the second day of the Lunar New Year. According to tradition, we return to our maternal home or visit relatives and friends.
At the dinner table, I encountered a distant cousin I hadn't seen in a long time. This guy was still selling second-hand houses six months ago, and today he has transformed, with his business card printed with 'Co-founder of Some AGI Technology'.
He was showing me their 'revolutionary product' on his phone, filled with words like 'disruption', 'singularity', and 'trillion-dollar track'.
I took a close look, and isn't that just a shell of GPT-4? Even the API interface is public.
Looking at his passionate and excited demeanor, I suddenly felt a deep sense of absurdity. But I couldn't say much, after all, I am not an authority.
When the streets are full of counterfeit money, the most profitable business is selling cash validators.
On the second day of the Lunar New Year, while hiding at home, I casually stumbled upon the poster for @Vanarchain .
With a black background and white text, the large "GRIFT" (scam) stands out incongruously among the festive Spring Festival blessings.
They want to hold a debate on whether "AGI is evolution or a scam."
This operation is quite interesting.
The current AI x Crypto track is like an explosion at a mint, with concepts flying everywhere like confetti.
Every project claims to be an Agent, and with just a post, they say they've passed the Turing test.
The market is in a state of "collective hallucination."
Vanar's current positioning suddenly made sense to me.
It doesn’t want to be the one printing counterfeit money; it wants to be the "cash validator."
Why?
Because the opposite of Grift is "Proof."
If AI really has a bubble, then the needle that bursts the bubble must be verifiability.
Vanar's Neutron memory layer and Kayon reasoning layer essentially provide this verification capability.
It can prove: who is this AI? What did it do yesterday? Is its decision-making logic real?
Without these, all AGI is cyber fraud.
My thoughts:
This reverse narrative (Reality Check) may not be well-received by Degen in the short term.
Because everyone comes to the crypto world to dream, not to attend lectures.
The price of $VANRY is still hovering at a low level, indicating that the market hasn’t priced this “awakening.” But it is an occupation of a "moral high ground."
When, in the second half of 2026, those AI projects financed by PPT begin to flee in bulk, Vanar's serious brand image will become its strongest trump card.
It's like the child in "The Emperor's New Clothes."
Although it seems a bit naive now, when everyone wakes up, he will be the only hero.
On February 19, go listen to the truth. #vanar$VANRY
The Social Nightmare of the First Day of the Lunar New Year: Why Do We Hate Resetting?
On the first day of the Lunar New Year, I was dragged by my mom to pay New Year’s greetings to relatives.
Sitting in a living room filled with sunflower seed shells, I have to face the same set of 'soul-searching questions' that comes up every year: Where do you work? How much is your salary? Are you looking for a partner?
Even though I answered this last year, and even the year before, I still have to start over this year.
At that moment, I was extremely exhausted. This exhaustion is not because talking is tiring, but because the data cannot be inherited. In the social network of relatives, I do not have a lasting context; each meeting is a system reset.
This inefficient stateless social interaction has consumed a lot of our energy but has not generated any deep emotional connections.
Watching @Vanarchain announce the integration of OpenClaw, I feel quite touched
In the past year, we have seen too many public chains claiming to "disrupt AI", drawing grand roadmaps and releasing complex white papers
And the result? No one uses them
Because for developers, the migration cost is too high
Vanar's current approach has changed
It no longer forces you to migrate; it chooses to "embed"
OpenClaw is an open-source Agent framework that many developers are currently using
Vanar says: "You keep using your framework, I will only help you solve the single pain point of 'forgetting things.'"
Through the Neutron API, it packages complex on-chain storage into a simple interface
It's like adding a magnetic screwdriver to the developer's toolbox. You will find that you can't do without it
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This is a high-level play of "decentralized penetration"
It no longer puts the brand "Vanar" on the forehead, but has taken the function of "Persistent Memory" to the extreme
The market's current pricing for VANRY (0.006) is still very sluggish because people have yet to see explosive data
But this kind of "toolchain-level binding", once formed, is extremely difficult to replace
If 2026 is the year of the Agent explosion, it is likely not because a certain AI is particularly smart, but because developing Agents has become as simple as building blocks
Vanar is becoming the most inconspicuous yet crucial "connector"
In this restless holiday, this pragmatic "screwdriver spirit" deserves a bit of our patience. #vanar$VANRY
In the past few days, its official posts no longer publish those stiff technical announcements, but are all retweets and quotes. ByteBloom said: "This week showcased a clear argument for memory infrastructure."
Vanar simply replied: "Exactly. Memory isn't just a feature. It's the foundation."
This move is called leveraging strength against strength.
At the current tail end of the bear market, trust is a scarce resource.
Vanar understands that saying "I am AI infrastructure" a thousand times isn't as effective as having a third-party researcher say, "This thing indeed solves the pain points."
It is transferring the narrative of "Memory is Foundation" from its own PPT to the consensus of the entire industry.
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As more and more developer frameworks like OpenClaw start to default integrate Neutron,
When more and more independent media begin to discuss the "AI memory layer," Vanar's ecological barrier has already been established.
This is a high-level game that requires not only getting things done but also having the right people speak for you.
In this circle full of lies, "his endorsement" is always worth more than "self-endorsement."
In the new year, don't just focus on who has the loudest voice.
Go see who can make others willingly stand on their platform. #vanar$VANRY
If AI does not have a family tree, they will always be just a pile of loose sand.
Today is New Year's Eve, and the sound of firecrackers outside has not stopped.
Just now at the dinner table, the usually serious uncle started talking about his old stories from when he was young. The whole family quietly listened, even though we have heard these stories eight hundred times.
I suddenly realized: what binds this big family together is not the dumplings on the table, but this set of shared memories.
It is precisely because we share a common past (data) that we are a whole (network). Without these memories, we would just be a group of strangers sitting at the same table by chance.
When your AI assistant decides to go all-in, what is your only lifeline?
I was awakened by my phone vibrating yesterday morning and received a credit card charge message: $299
I checked and found out it was an automatic renewal for a SaaS software I had tried six months ago
I clearly remember canceling my subscription, but that smart system obviously has its own ideas
In that moment, I didn't feel the pain of losing money, but rather a sense of powerlessness being controlled by machines
In the real world, we can hardly fully control something as simple as an automatic deduction. If it reaches the blockchain, and an AI Agent with asset control suddenly goes crazy (or its logic goes awry), who will hit the brakes?
Sports cars are expensive not only because of their good engines, but also because of their braking systems.
Recently, I saw a post from @Vanarchain and noticed that they are no longer obsessed with proving how strong AI is, but rather emphasizing how stable AI needs to be.
This is a very mature signal.
In response to Empyreal's discussion on 'software layer autonomy', Vanar emphasized the underlying persistent memory and reliable reasoning.
If you carefully consider this statement, you will find it conveys a defensive mindset.
The current AI Agent race resembles a group of street racers without licenses.
Everyone is competing on whose Agent runs faster and whose Agent earns more.
But Vanar stands up and says: 'If you don't install guardrails and a provenance recorder, you will eventually face disaster.'
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This is a narrative shift from offense to defense.
During the bear market's low point ($VANRY $0.006), no one believes in 'disrupting the world' anymore.
However, if you talk about how to prevent AI from ruining your business, B-end clients are willing to listen.
Vanar is positioning itself as the 'compliance safety valve' of the AI economy.
It is normal for the market to respond coldly.
Because 'safety' has never been a sexy selling point until an incident occurs.
The current low volatility is actually the market's indifference to these 'conservatives'.
But I am optimistic about this logic.
In 2026, with the advancement of Fetch.ai and major companies, AI Agents will inevitably take over some financial authorities.
At that time, 'who can manage AI' will have the greatest say.
This is destined to be a lonely path, but it is also a necessary route to institutional-level trust.
Today is Valentine's Day, yet I am pondering an ultimate question about communication. Whether in love or in trading, the most frustrating thing is not the arguments, but the silence. You ask the other person: "What are we doing? Where are we going next? What just happened?" The other person merely blinks mechanically, with no response, like a broken NPC. This suffocating feeling is the real situation faced by all AI agents on the public chain right now. They are thrown into an extremely fast TPS environment, but completely speechless. In every interaction, the chain only keeps track of accounts and does not provide explanations. AI does not know "why this transaction failed" or "what this contract really wants to do." It can only blindly try and error, constantly resetting.
In this echo chamber that only repeats itself, Vanar chooses to speak outside
Recently observing the movements of @Vanarchain , I discovered a significant signal:
It is actively escaping the Crypto "echo chamber"
These past few days, while most projects are still arguing on Twitter over a few points of rise and fall,
Vanar's CEO has gone to the podium at AIBC in Dubai to talk with global business leaders about AI-driven global growth.
This is not just about changing the meeting place; it's a complete shift in dialogue partners.
In the crypto world, you discuss TPS, airdrops, and TVL.
But in occasions like AIBC, you must talk about policies, productivity, and boundaries of responsibility.
At this moment, Vanar positions itself as "the on-chain pillar of the AI growth engine," actually paving the way for future institutional entry.
It is telling those outside the circle with big money: "The AI black box issue you are worried about, my on-chain memory layer can solve it." ———————— This strategy of "narrative spillover" indeed does not provide much stimulus to the coin price ($0.006) in the short term,
because the gamblers in the secondary market do not understand and do not care about macroeconomics.
But for an infrastructure that wants to survive beyond 2026, this is a necessary step.
Only by gaining "recognition from the outside world" can we break the deadlock of Crypto's stock game.
Now, Vanar is like a tech geek handing out flyers at the entrance of Wall Street.
Although it seems a bit lonely, as long as a giant picks up the flyer, the ending of the story will be rewritten.
I am willing to hold a position for this courage to break out of the circle at this low level.
It was only when AI started messing up millions in orders that we understood Vanar's ambitions.
A couple of days ago, I had tea with a guy who does cross-border logistics. He has been vigorously promoting AI customer service and scheduling systems recently, resulting in a mess.
He complained that: "This AI is smart, but it's too 'independent.' When handling this order, it completely forgot the special notes for this client from last week. This led to wrong shipments and pricing errors, costing over a hundred thousand. This kind of discontinuous intelligence is a ticking time bomb in industrial scenarios." After listening to his complaints, I suddenly understood the remarks made at the AIBC conference in Dubai these past two days. In the past, I thought Vanar talked about memory just to ride the AI wave.
I just saw AltimeterBrad (Brad Gerstner) confirm attendance on the #WLF2026 list, and I rubbed my eyes, thinking I was mistaken.
If you’re in the US stock circle, you know what level Altimeter Capital is at.
This kind of top-tier Silicon Valley investor used to only appear on CNBC discussing macroeconomics, AI, and SaaS.
Now he’s actually going to Mar-a-Lago to talk to us about stablecoins?
This itself is a huge macro signal.
▰▰▰
I took a look at the on-chain data for USD1, and the answer is very clear:
The circulation has exceeded 5.3 billion USD.
When an on-chain asset reaches this scale, it is no longer just a 'even' in the crypto space; it is a new type of currency supply in the financial world.
People like Brad have the sharpest instincts.
What he sees is not Crypto; he sees that the US dollar is being reconstructed.
With Binance launching the PAXG/USD1 hardcore trading pair, the logic is closed:
Physical gold + digital US dollar = a new generation of safe-haven dual towers.
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This could be a watershed moment for 2026.
In the past, we begged institutions to take a look at Web3, now institutions have no choice but to study the API-ization of the US dollar.
The World Liberty Forum chose Mar-a-Lago, and the guest is Brad Gerstner; the metaphor behind this is too deep:
Wall Street (capital), Washington (power), and Silicon Valley (technology) are converging on the stablecoin track.
This is not just a call; this is a statement of a power shift that is happening.
If you still see USD1 as just an ordinary mining tool, then you may really underestimate the scale of this game. #USD1
Just finished testing @CalculusFinance, and I laughed out loud when I saw the results: Michael Saylor —— ETF Priest.
The motto in the picture is simply reflecting my ID:
「In Jerome we trust, always believing that the value of the counterfeit is 0.」
No wonder I can't hold onto a Shiba Inu; it turns out my DNA isn't that of a gambler, but rather a thorough believer in institutional logic.
👇 Let's see how stable my C-B-N-S really is:
🔹 C (Centralized Practicalist): I don't blindly believe in decentralization; I trust whoever is secure and efficient. 🔹 B (Blue Chip Believer): Apart from BTC/ETH, everything else is noise to me. 🔹 N (Narrative Driven): I'm looking at the macro, aiming for the ETF and compliant flood of capital. 🔹 S (Stable Risk Control): Surviving and crossing cycles is more important than getting rich overnight.
This is not just a test; this is Calculus using AI to strip down the strategies of top whales, helping us find the most compatible ways to make money.
//
Since we are talking about trading personalities, I also dare to analyze our industry's two mountains with this logic:
I think CZ is definitely the ceiling of T (Logic Driven Analyst).
Building Binance and BNBchain from 0 to 1 relies not on storytelling but on extreme code rationality and system architecture ability. Coupled with V (Proactive and Decisive) execution, they can stay firmly on the fishing platform amidst multiple industry reshuffles.
🧐 Guess about @Yi He : 【D-A-N-V】 Sister is different; I think she is the king of N (Narrative Driven Consensus). Her ability to capture market heat and community sentiment is top-notch (corresponding to A - Value Discovery). If CZ builds ships, she is the one who can make everyone believe "this ship can sail to new continents."
To the two big shots, I wonder if my AI personality profile is accurate?
Lastly, to be honest:
Recognizing oneself is the first step to making big money.
The official now has a 0.5% $CALCULUS token reward pool; testing it doesn't cost anything. What if your "prototype" is Buffett?
If your Google account is banned tomorrow, what will you have left?
A couple of days ago, a photographer friend of mine broke down at a party.
The reason is simple and absurd: his cloud account was permanently banned for violating sharing rules (which was actually a misjudgment).
Ten years of work, records of a child's growth, all work documents, instantly evaporated. No way to appeal, data can't be retrieved.
Looking at him like that, a term popped into my head: digital lobotomy.
In a centralized world, our memories do not belong to us; they belong to the server. As long as the platform is willing, it can turn you into a 'blank person' with no past at any time.
If the world of fiat currency is made up of countless isolated islands separated by high walls, then Plasma is trying to create a door that can be opened at will.
Recently, the news of @Plasma connecting to Bridge is seen by many as just an ordinary positive development.
But in my view, this is the most critical piece of the puzzle in Plasma's ecological map.
Fiat ↔ USDT bi-directional connection.
In the past, entering Crypto was like an adventure. You had to find exchanges, find C2C, worry about frozen cards, and endure high slippage.
Now, through Bridge's single API, Plasma has turned this process into a one-click experience.
Developers can easily integrate this door into their applications.
Want to recharge? Just click, and fiat turns into USDT.
Want to withdraw? Just click, and USDT turns back into fiat.
The entire process is completed on the Plasma chain, with zero Gas and zero friction.
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This marks Plasma's official transformation from a "chain-based DeFi paradise" to a global payment hub.
It is no longer satisfied with just earning money within the chain; it is starting to earn money from connections.
Once this "full-chain path dependency" is formed, it is very difficult to replace.
Because for B-end enterprises, stability and low cost are everything.
The current market still views it with outdated perspectives, thinking it is not as attractive as Meme.
But if you believe that 2026 will be the year of stablecoin payment explosion, then Plasma's "least painful path" is a target you must pay attention to.
Not seeking attention, but pursuing flow.
This is the logic of doing big business. #plasma$XPL