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COPOM WARNS: INFLATIONARY PRESSURES REQUIRE RESTRICTIVE INTEREST RATES FOR LONGEROn November 10, 2026, the Central Bank released the minutes of the 282nd meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), held on November 3 and 4.
The document explains the reasons for keeping the Selic rate at 13.75% per year and outlines a scenario of high inflation, unanchored expectations, and slowing economic activity.
๐ THE CENTRAL BANKโS NEW PROJECTIONS
In the baseline scenario, Copom estimates inflation, as measured by the IPCA over four quarters, at:
โข 2026: 5.6%
COPOM WARNS: INFLATIONARY PRESSURES REQUIRE RESTRICTIVE INTEREST RATES FOR LONGER
On November 10, 2026, the Central Bank released the minutes of the 282nd meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), held on November 3 and 4.
The document explains the reasons for keeping the Selic rate at 13.75% per year and outlines a scenario of high inflation, unanchored expectations, and slowing economic activity.
๐ THE CENTRAL BANKโS NEW PROJECTIONS
In the baseline scenario, Copom estimates inflation, as measured by the IPCA over four quarters, at:
โข 2026: 5.6%
The document explains the reasons for keeping the Selic rate at 13.75% per year and outlines a scenario of high inflation, unanchored expectations, and slowing economic activity.
๐ THE CENTRAL BANKโS NEW PROJECTIONS
In the baseline scenario, Copom estimates inflation, as measured by the IPCA over four quarters, at:
โข 2026: 5.6%
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๐ง๐ท B3 UNDER PRESSURE: INTEREST RATES, FISCAL POLICY AND RISK AVERSION AT THE CENTER OF THE MARKET
Brazilian stocks fell again on Tuesday (03/11), recording their sixth consecutive session of losses.
๐ MARKET CLOSE
Ibovespa: -1.42%, at 165,528 points.
Commercial dollar: +0.70%, at R$ 5,486.
Petrobras: shares fell nearly 4%, pressured by the sharp drop in oil prices the previous day.
Embraer: rose approximately 4% at the close, after securing a contract with Greece for three KC-390 aircraft, with an option for three more.
๐ฆ FOCUS ON INTEREST RATES AND FISCAL POLICY
The Focus Bulletin once again showed deteriorating expectations:
2026 IPCA: forecast raised to 5.22%.
2027 IPCA: from 4.34% to 4.76%.
Selic at the end of 2026: from 13.25% to 13.50%.
The Selic rate is currently 13.75% per year. The Copom meeting began on Tuesday, and the decision will be announced on Wednesday (04/11).
The market is also watching uncertainty over fiscal management and the economic policy direction of the next term.
๐ THE TAKEAWAY: six consecutive sessions of declines, the dollar near R$ 5,50, and elevated futures interest rates show that investors continue to demand a higher risk premium to remain in Brazilian assets.
Is the market close to finding stability, or is there still room for further adjustments?
#ibovespa #Dรณlar #Copom #ReschResearch
๐ง๐ท B3 UNDER PRESSURE: INTEREST RATES, FISCAL POLICY AND RISK AVERSION AT THE CENTER OF THE MARKET
Brazilian stocks fell again on Tuesday (03/11), recording their sixth consecutive session of losses.
๐ MARKET CLOSE
Ibovespa: -1.42%, at 165,528 points.
Commercial dollar: +0.70%, at R$ 5,486.
Petrobras: shares fell nearly 4%, pressured by the sharp drop in oil prices the previous day.
Embraer: rose approximately 4% at the close, after securing a contract with Greece for three KC-390 aircraft, with an option for three more.
๐ฆ FOCUS ON INTEREST RATES AND FISCAL POLICY
The Focus Bulletin once again showed deteriorating expectations:
2026 IPCA: forecast raised to 5.22%.
2027 IPCA: from 4.34% to 4.76%.
Selic at the end of 2026: from 13.25% to 13.50%.
The Selic rate is currently 13.75% per year. The Copom meeting began on Tuesday, and the decision will be announced on Wednesday (04/11).
The market is also watching uncertainty over fiscal management and the economic policy direction of the next term.
๐ THE TAKEAWAY: six consecutive sessions of declines, the dollar near R$ 5,50, and elevated futures interest rates show that investors continue to demand a higher risk premium to remain in Brazilian assets.
Is the market close to finding stability, or is there still room for further adjustments?
#ibovespa #Dรณlar #Copom #ReschResearch
Brazilian stocks fell again on Tuesday (03/11), recording their sixth consecutive session of losses.
๐ MARKET CLOSE
Ibovespa: -1.42%, at 165,528 points.
Commercial dollar: +0.70%, at R$ 5,486.
Petrobras: shares fell nearly 4%, pressured by the sharp drop in oil prices the previous day.
Embraer: rose approximately 4% at the close, after securing a contract with Greece for three KC-390 aircraft, with an option for three more.
๐ฆ FOCUS ON INTEREST RATES AND FISCAL POLICY
The Focus Bulletin once again showed deteriorating expectations:
2026 IPCA: forecast raised to 5.22%.
2027 IPCA: from 4.34% to 4.76%.
Selic at the end of 2026: from 13.25% to 13.50%.
The Selic rate is currently 13.75% per year. The Copom meeting began on Tuesday, and the decision will be announced on Wednesday (04/11).
The market is also watching uncertainty over fiscal management and the economic policy direction of the next term.
๐ THE TAKEAWAY: six consecutive sessions of declines, the dollar near R$ 5,50, and elevated futures interest rates show that investors continue to demand a higher risk premium to remain in Brazilian assets.
Is the market close to finding stability, or is there still room for further adjustments?
#ibovespa #Dรณlar #Copom #ReschResearch
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