On November 10, 2026, the Central Bank released the minutes of the 282nd meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), held on November 3 and 4.
The document explains the reasons for keeping the Selic rate at 13.75% per year and outlines a scenario of high inflation, unanchored expectations, and slowing economic activity.
📊 THE CENTRAL BANK’S NEW PROJECTIONS
In the baseline scenario, Copom estimates inflation, as measured by the IPCA over four quarters, at:
• 2026: 5.6%
• 2027: 4.7%
• Second quarter of 2028: 3.5%
The relevant horizon for monetary policy is currently the second quarter of 2028. These projections are not actual outcomes or guarantees of future inflation.
⚠️ FOUR SHOCKS CONCERN COPOM
The minutes identify four factors putting pressure on the inflation outlook:
Rising oil prices related to conflicts in the Middle East.
Climate effects associated with El Niño, with potential impacts on agriculture and energy costs.
Rising labor costs associated with the end of the 6-days-on, 1-day-off work schedule.
Currency depreciation amid uncertainties related to domestic policy.
The Central Bank notes that a sharper economic slowdown could reduce the pass-through of these shocks to other prices. It also distinguishes their direct effects from potential persistent secondary effects.
🏦 WHY COULD INTEREST RATES REMAIN HIGH?
Copom believes that unanchored inflation expectations call for tighter monetary policy for longer than would be necessary under normal conditions.
At the same time, it acknowledges that high interest rates are already helping to moderate economic activity, especially in sectors that rely more heavily on credit.
The minutes do not set a date for further rate cuts or announce an additional increase in the Selic rate.
₿ WHAT IS THE CONNECTION TO BITCOIN AND CRYPTOASSETS?
Brazilian monetary policy influences the cost of credit, returns on investments in reais, financial conditions, and the exchange rate.
For Brazilian investors, these factors can change the opportunity cost of holding positions in BTC, ETH, and other cryptoassets, as well as the value in reais of dollar-referenced stablecoins.
However, Bitcoin price movements cannot automatically be attributed to the Copom minutes. Prices also depend on international liquidity, U.S. interest rates, capital flows, and factors specific to the crypto market.
📌 CONCLUSION
The news is not the Selic rate of 13.75%, which was already announced on November 4, but the official breakdown of inflation risks and the conditions needed for inflation to converge to the target.
The central message is one of caution: persistent inflationary pressure, slowing economic activity, and monetary policy that remains restrictive.
🔗 Official source: Central Bank
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