copom

🇧🇷 B3 UNDER PRESSURE: INTEREST RATES, FISCAL POLICY AND RISK AVERSION AT THE CENTER OF THE MARKET

Brazilian stocks fell again on Tuesday (03/11), recording their sixth consecutive session of losses.

📉 MARKET CLOSE

Ibovespa: -1.42%, at 165,528 points.

Commercial dollar: +0.70%, at R$ 5,486.

Petrobras: shares fell nearly 4%, pressured by the sharp drop in oil prices the previous day.

Embraer: rose approximately 4% at the close, after securing a contract with Greece for three KC-390 aircraft, with an option for three more.

🏦 FOCUS ON INTEREST RATES AND FISCAL POLICY

The Focus Bulletin once again showed deteriorating expectations:

2026 IPCA: forecast raised to 5.22%.

2027 IPCA: from 4.34% to 4.76%.

Selic at the end of 2026: from 13.25% to 13.50%.

The Selic rate is currently 13.75% per year. The Copom meeting began on Tuesday, and the decision will be announced on Wednesday (04/11).

The market is also watching uncertainty over fiscal management and the economic policy direction of the next term.

📊 THE TAKEAWAY: six consecutive sessions of declines, the dollar near R$ 5,50, and elevated futures interest rates show that investors continue to demand a higher risk premium to remain in Brazilian assets.

Is the market close to finding stability, or is there still room for further adjustments?

#ibovespa #Dólar #Copom #ReschResearch