In U.S. pre-market trading today, U.S. 30-year Treasury yields surged strongly to 5.587%, immediately setting a new high since May 2004. Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the upcoming release of August JOLTS job openings and the September Conference Board consumer confidence index, as the macro liquidity battle has entered an intense, heated phase.
From a technical chart perspective, long-end U.S. Treasury yields have formed a parabola-like spike atop multi-year highs, which usually indicates that the bond market’s bearish momentum is undergoing its final concentrated release. Such a rapid surge ahead of key economic data releases often means the market has already priced in tightening expectations extremely thoroughly in advance, and marginal downside catalysts are quickly running out.
Although rising yields temporarily lift the U.S. dollar index and weigh on traditional global risk assets, judging from momentum indicators’ overbought signals, long-end rates are now in an extremely fragile resistance zone. Once subsequent labor market and confidence data show marginal cooling, Treasury yields are highly likely to undergo a technical mean reversion, thereby providing strong rebound momentum for the release of global liquidity.
For the crypto market, the final release of high-rate expectations is instead an excellent opportunity to build a stage-wise bottom.
$BTC has shown strong on-chain liquidity/position support resilience under macro extreme pressure tests alongside the broader market. If yields spike and then retreat, the risk premium will quickly flow back, driving crypto assets to launch a new round of strong breakout momentum.📈
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