According to a report by the Financial Times, as the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drives up energy prices, internal disagreement within the Bank of England over the interest-rate path is intensifying. The policy makers have scheduled a monetary policy meeting for this week, focusing on the benchmark interest rate and the pace of balance-sheet runoff. While the market currently broadly expects the odds of a rate hike at Thursday’s meeting to be less than one-third, the continued rise in oil prices is increasing pressures for a rebound in inflation. Combined with steady growth in UK GDP, this has forced policy makers to reassess the likely direction of rates before year-end.
Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said that the rationale for the Bank of England to maintain the status quo is weakening, and its tolerance may be nearing its limit. The situation is complicated by the fact that the market is not only facing higher energy costs from geopolitical factors; the UK gilt market is also coming under significant pressure from the government ahead of the budget statement to be released on October 28. Any previously expected path of rate cuts or a smooth transition is likely to be disrupted by this wave of imported inflation.
From the perspective of macro financial markets, the Middle East conflict lifting oil prices not only directly suppresses global expectations for rate cuts, but also raises sovereign bond yields and provides interim support for the US dollar index. If the Bank of England were forced by inflation pressures to keep rates at 3.75% or to signal a tightening bias, policy divergence among major global central banks could intensify, leading to wider swings in both traditional FX and commodity markets.
For the crypto market, macro liquidity expectations remain a key factor influencing investors’ risk appetite. The delayed effect of energy-driven inflation and the expectation of high interest rates may, in the short term, limit the pace at which incremental capital flows in, keeping
$BTC and mainstream tokens locked in a range-bound, choppy pattern. Investors are currently staying cautious and on the sidelines, and should closely monitor the Middle East situation and the actual impact of central bank decisions on peripheral liquidity.
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