K线人生飞哥

To introduce myself to my followers

Hello everyone, I am Feige. I entered the circle in 2017, and I consider myself an old player. Along the way, I have encountered countless pitfalls and have summarized some of my own methodologies. From initially blindly following trends to now focusing more on studying cycles, macro trends, and funding logic, I have gradually found my own rhythm.

Throughout this journey, I have realized that the crypto world is not just about rises and falls; it is more like a cyclical game: some are FOMOing during the highs, while others are quietly positioning during the lows.

I currently work as a blogger at Binance Square, sharing some personal thoughts and observations. I am not a guru; I am just an old player who has experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid detours, and also gain new inspirations through communication.

If you also believe in cycles, believe in logic, and believe in long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become fellow travelers here.

Regarding the viewpoints of my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, so my viewpoints will also change with the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously following industry progress can we keep growing. Sticking rigidly to conventional wisdom will only lead to being eliminated by the times. I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: My viewpoints published in the square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if the long-term outlook is bullish, there will still be pullbacks; and even if the long-term outlook is bearish, there will be rebounds. Don’t let short-term viewpoints affect your long-term perspectives. An upward trend does not mean it will only rise without looking back; more often, it is a trend of rises and falls. Similarly, a downward trend is not a continuous crash without rebounds; more often, it is a downward trend with fluctuations. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be blindly trusted, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate a bit; some things need to be understood to a certain extent. You can't just buy whatever others say. Especially if you have limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me. You are my motivation to keep sharing, and I hope we can all reap our own rewards in the cycle.

If you need a commission rebate, scan the QR code on Binance to add me as a friend. It's simple and easy to understand, and you can easily get in touch with me 🤝

A sentence worth its weight in gold: The prosperity that has nothing to do with you is no reason to be proud. In fact, it may be the root of your poverty.

Nvidia keeps falling $NVDA 📉. I said yesterday that support on the daily chart was around 150. In the short term, I didn't recommend buying the dip around 180 during the day yesterday. A lot of people even said I was too pessimistic. As it turned out, it fell again last night, reaching our support around 150 before starting to rebound. Those who bought the dip around 180 yesterday during the day were probably trapped again.

The market sentiment indicators on the Plaza are still pretty accurate. Earlier, a bunch of influencers on the Plaza led their followers to buy the dip on Google $GOOGLB , and they got trapped. It has finally rebounded to their cost basis. Then they all bought the dip on Intel $INTC , and they're still stuck with it. Yesterday they led their followers to buy the dip on Nvidia at 180 again, so they're probably going to be stuck for a few more days. My view is still the same: Nvidia could be worth a short-term rebound play around 150.

Follow Brother Fei's strategy. Would Brother Fei ever lead you astray???

Woke up to a big profit on our short position!!!🎉🎉🎉

The market rebounded to around our resistance level and then dropped 📉. The short-entry levels shared by our VIP community were spot on: short around the 74,800–75,000 range. Last night, the market rebounded to around 74,800—our short-entry point—and then quickly fell to 73,400. Although the drop in U.S. stocks had an impact, our technical analysis had already identified the short-entry level, and the trade still made sense. The market had started falling before U.S. stocks even began to drop, and each time it reached one of our short-entry levels, it started falling. This short trade was a big win, wouldn’t you say? Congratulations to everyone who followed the trade! Our community applies the same strategy to both spot and futures.

After $UNI ’s catch-up drop yesterday, $PEPE also started dropping today. Luckily, I told everyone in the VIP community yesterday that we should still sell some to guard against a catch-up drop. Strategies are often changing constantly. For example, yesterday morning I still thought PEPE was looking strong on the public square, but by midday I noticed the trading volume looked off and saw signs of selling. So that afternoon, I directly alerted everyone in the VIP community to sell, to guard against a market drop. So don’t say I change my opinion every day. Often, I have one view in the morning and another in the afternoon, because the crypto market changes so quickly. All we can do is keep up with those changes and adjust our strategies in time.

A major player's daily routine:
Hold coins, write poetry, practice calligraphy, paint, read, work out, travel, drink aged tea and vintage wine, play golf, get massages at the club, stay in a good mood, and sleep well.

A retail investor's daily routine:
Stare at the charts, follow the big players, trade hot themes, predict price levels, call tops and bottoms, buy the dip and sell the top, read rumors, fantasize about whether prices will rise or fall tomorrow, trade stock index futures, occasionally trade crypto, have a short temper, set their sights too high, grow cynical, complain about the market, curse the group admin, curse the influencers, curse the management, and when losses drive them mad, even curse themselves. Their libido declines, and they often suffer from insomnia.

BRS has reached 95, just one step away from 100.

Based on this indicator’s historical performance, when BRS approaches 100, it often means that short-term selling pressure and panic in BTC have been released to an extreme. Near 100, you can consider positioning early for an oversold bounce, while the indicator’s retreat from 100 serves as confirmation from the right side.

Looking back at the 2018 bear market, the peaks of the three major rebounds all came after BRS had fallen to 0 and stayed there for some time. So, this indicator can be understood simply as follows: when it approaches 100, look for rebound opportunities; when it falls to 0 and stays there, beware that the rebound may be over.

In the short term, I think BTC has entered a short-term bottom zone worth watching. Of course, this doesn’t mean the larger-scale correction is over. The shakeouts in the early stages of a bull market are often the most grueling, so stay patient.

$ZEC The daily-chart consolidation range has completely broken down. I said on the Square on September 30 that there was a risk of a breakdown. Even if you’re buying the dip, you must set a stop-loss; don’t stubbornly hold on. If the first daily-chart consolidation range and all support levels have broken down, it’ll be difficult to recover in the short term. So if you’re looking to buy the dip, wait until it’s around 800.

Let me share today's account drawdown with everyone.
My account is currently down 158,900 USDT for the day.
Converted to RMB, that's also about 1 million.
Most of my holdings are major cryptocurrencies, and my overall exposure is currently around 50%. How much have you all drawn down today???

I said yesterday in the group that AAVE and ARB looked like they had stabilized a few days ago and were even pumping upward. I didn't expect it to be a bull trap followed by a catch-up drop. So I had a feeling $UNI and $PEPE would also see a catch-up drop. I didn't expect my jinx to come true—UNI started catching up on its drop today. So here's the question: do you think $1000PEPE will see a catch-up drop???

$1000PEPE performed exceptionally well. During the hacking incident, PEPE was the only altcoin in the VIP community that we told everyone to buy the dip on. Looking back now, that strategy was absolutely right, because many altcoins have fallen even further since then. PEPE is the only one that has remained particularly strong. After tracking it closely yesterday, we saw it reach our target of 0.0000055 and successfully break through. Our latest strategy is still to consider holding on and being a little more patient.

Let me explain why I’m bullish on PEPE.

If I had to pick one Meme coin to keep an eye on over the long term, my first choice would be $PEPE .

The reason is simple. First, PEPE has consistently attracted plenty of market attention and has strong reach. Meme-related topics involving Musk can also often influence market sentiment. However, social media engagement should not be equated with official endorsement.

Second, PEPE is smaller than DOGE in terms of market capitalization. If the Meme sector enters another frenzy, smaller-cap assets often have more room to move. Of course, a smaller market cap also means greater volatility and a higher risk of drawdowns.

Third, based on the past few Meme rallies, PEPE has often shown greater explosive potential when market sentiment is running high. It may not be suitable for chasing the price, but it’s worth waiting for a better price range.

During the last two livestreams, I also told everyone that if $DOGE Dogecoin takes off, PEPE will only rise even more. I still stand by that view.

NVIDIA $NVDA has continued its previous downtrend. This may signal that a monthly-level correction is officially underway, with the entire cycle expected to take 6–12 months.

Looking at the downside, $150 is the first support level, but I don’t think it’s necessarily going to hold. The area around $100 is more worth watching and could become a key target in this deep correction.

If you’re looking to buy NVIDIA at the bottom for the long term, wait until it’s around $100.

U.S. stocks are nearing a short-term bottom, with a rebound likely before another decline

I believe U.S. stocks have most likely entered a short-term bottoming zone.

The market is well aware of the bubble in U.S. stocks. Whether it’s valuations, expectations for AI, or the relationship between capital markets and the real economy, people know that a bubble may exist and that it will eventually burst. The real problem is that no one can accurately predict when.

This brings to mind China’s property market around 2015.

At the time, many economists had already argued from various angles that China’s property market should have turned downward long ago, citing rental yields, the pressure real estate was putting on the real economy, and the effects of housing prices on marriage and social structures.

But we all saw what happened next: the government tried to turn the stock market into a second reservoir for capital, but the results were disappointing. To stabilize the economy, it ultimately had no choice but to continue relying on real estate.

In some ways, a similar dynamic is at play in U.S. stocks today.

Everyone knows there’s a bubble in U.S. stocks and that high valuations can’t last forever, but that doesn’t mean the market is about to crash. U.S. stocks have grown so large that they affect the entire global financial system. A systemic crash could have consequences that are difficult to bear.

This creates a very real situation: U.S. stocks have become “too big to fail” to some extent, but this state of affairs can only last for a while.

My view remains cautious: U.S. stocks may be gearing up for a decline lasting several weeks. However, it may not happen right away. Semiconductor valuations have already fallen to relatively low levels, trading remains active, and the bulls and bears are still divided. These factors could keep the indexes swinging within a wide range for a while, rather than sending them straight into a panic-driven sell-off.

$QQQ $SPY

I increasingly feel that $PEPE has a chance to become $DOGE in this cycle.

First, let’s look back at DOGE’s performance in the previous cycle:

2021 ATH: $95 billion
2022 bear market low: $6.7 billion
2024 interim high: $70 billion

Even as an established meme coin, DOGE still managed to rise nearly 10x from its bear market low.

Now let’s look at PEPE:

2024 ATH: $11 billion
2026 interim low: $1 billion
Next cycle: how much upside could there be?

In my view, PEPE’s current position has a lot in common with DOGE’s during the previous cycle.

It’s long past the point of being a new meme coin that needs to prove itself to the market. Its name recognition, community size, and market consensus are already established, and it has been through a full market cycle. After the bear market, it’s still in the game.

More importantly, PEPE’s current market cap is far below DOGE’s at the time. While market cap growth doesn’t mean an equivalent proportion of capital needs to flow in, PEPE does have greater potential for volatility and upside.

Its recent market performance is also worth noting. Even as the broader market has faced repeated pressure, PEPE has shown some relative strength.

If that strength continues, PEPE could outperform many people’s expectations when the market truly enters a phase of broad-based recovery in risk appetite.

U.S. biotech stocks right now are like semiconductor stocks in 2024. There are a lot of good names; honestly, IBB looks great.

If BTC has already hit a local bottom, these altcoins interest me:

$ARB - Insane relative strength, for some reason

$AVAX - NYSE partnership

$PEPE - Justin Sun is backing it

USELESS - Excellent beta when BTC is strong

PUMP - 200-day EMA + support/resistance

ZEC - Performs well alongside BTC

ENA - 200-day EMA + 0.618 Fibonacci level

The basic case for a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin

Bitcoin has replicated the history of how, in the early days of human civilization, people from different civilizations, ethnic groups, and tribes independently used gold as a general equivalent.

There are roughly 100–150 million direct Bitcoin holders today. The number of indirect holders through channels such as trust funds, ETFs, and stocks is estimated to be in the tens of millions, bringing the total to perhaps around 200 million people.
(Here, dollar stablecoins are not included, since dollar stablecoins are essentially dollars, not cryptocurrencies.) An asset that commands the consensus of 200 million people already has more backing than the vast majority of fiat currencies.

If Bitcoin is considered a Ponzi scheme, then by the same standard, every fiat currency other than the US dollar, euro, renminbi, Indian rupee, and Swiss franc would also be a Ponzi scheme. (To explain one point: the Swiss franc is included because its issuance requires gold reserves of at least 40% as backing; it is not a purely fiat currency.) To borrow a concept from Warhammer: if there are enough believers, and they believe fervently enough, they can pray a god into physical existence.

Bitcoin has more holders than there are believers in the Anglican Communion (85 million) or Theravada Buddhism (150 million), and slightly fewer than there are Eastern Orthodox Christians (220 million) or Shia Muslims (200–300 million).

If belief in Bitcoin is defined as a religion, it has already joined the ranks of mainstream religious denominations. In other words, as long as humanity doesn’t fight a nuclear war and blast itself back to the Stone Age, Bitcoin’s lifespan as a consensus-based asset will be measured in centuries.

As more institutional investors get involved and ownership becomes increasingly dispersed, Bitcoin’s price volatility will gradually subside, making it the antithesis of all fiat currencies. I’ll make another prediction: in the future, Bitcoin will no longer be priced primarily in US dollars. Instead, a “Bitcoin Index” pegged to a basket of currencies will emerge and grow in step with the world’s M2.

$BTC This market is a bit too brutal, isn't it? Before the crash, it even rebounded upward to liquidate the short positions and lure in longs. It really doesn’t want to let retail investors make even a little money. You could say it cast a net to wipe everyone out.