The basic case for a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin
Bitcoin has replicated the history of how, in the early days of human civilization, people from different civilizations, ethnic groups, and tribes independently used gold as a general equivalent.
There are roughly 100–150 million direct Bitcoin holders today. The number of indirect holders through channels such as trust funds, ETFs, and stocks is estimated to be in the tens of millions, bringing the total to perhaps around 200 million people.
(Here, dollar stablecoins are not included, since dollar stablecoins are essentially dollars, not cryptocurrencies.) An asset that commands the consensus of 200 million people already has more backing than the vast majority of fiat currencies.
If Bitcoin is considered a Ponzi scheme, then by the same standard, every fiat currency other than the US dollar, euro, renminbi, Indian rupee, and Swiss franc would also be a Ponzi scheme. (To explain one point: the Swiss franc is included because its issuance requires gold reserves of at least 40% as backing; it is not a purely fiat currency.) To borrow a concept from Warhammer: if there are enough believers, and they believe fervently enough, they can pray a god into physical existence.
Bitcoin has more holders than there are believers in the Anglican Communion (85 million) or Theravada Buddhism (150 million), and slightly fewer than there are Eastern Orthodox Christians (220 million) or Shia Muslims (200–300 million).
If belief in Bitcoin is defined as a religion, it has already joined the ranks of mainstream religious denominations. In other words, as long as humanity doesn’t fight a nuclear war and blast itself back to the Stone Age, Bitcoin’s lifespan as a consensus-based asset will be measured in centuries.
As more institutional investors get involved and ownership becomes increasingly dispersed, Bitcoin’s price volatility will gradually subside, making it the antithesis of all fiat currencies. I’ll make another prediction: in the future, Bitcoin will no longer be priced primarily in US dollars. Instead, a “Bitcoin Index” pegged to a basket of currencies will emerge and grow in step with the world’s M2.
Bitcoin has replicated the history of how, in the early days of human civilization, people from different civilizations, ethnic groups, and tribes independently used gold as a general equivalent.
There are roughly 100–150 million direct Bitcoin holders today. The number of indirect holders through channels such as trust funds, ETFs, and stocks is estimated to be in the tens of millions, bringing the total to perhaps around 200 million people.
(Here, dollar stablecoins are not included, since dollar stablecoins are essentially dollars, not cryptocurrencies.) An asset that commands the consensus of 200 million people already has more backing than the vast majority of fiat currencies.
If Bitcoin is considered a Ponzi scheme, then by the same standard, every fiat currency other than the US dollar, euro, renminbi, Indian rupee, and Swiss franc would also be a Ponzi scheme. (To explain one point: the Swiss franc is included because its issuance requires gold reserves of at least 40% as backing; it is not a purely fiat currency.) To borrow a concept from Warhammer: if there are enough believers, and they believe fervently enough, they can pray a god into physical existence.
Bitcoin has more holders than there are believers in the Anglican Communion (85 million) or Theravada Buddhism (150 million), and slightly fewer than there are Eastern Orthodox Christians (220 million) or Shia Muslims (200–300 million).
If belief in Bitcoin is defined as a religion, it has already joined the ranks of mainstream religious denominations. In other words, as long as humanity doesn’t fight a nuclear war and blast itself back to the Stone Age, Bitcoin’s lifespan as a consensus-based asset will be measured in centuries.
As more institutional investors get involved and ownership becomes increasingly dispersed, Bitcoin’s price volatility will gradually subside, making it the antithesis of all fiat currencies. I’ll make another prediction: in the future, Bitcoin will no longer be priced primarily in US dollars. Instead, a “Bitcoin Index” pegged to a basket of currencies will emerge and grow in step with the world’s M2.
