How long can TSLA’s delivery surprise stay positive?
Next week I’m leaning more bullish on TSLA. After auto deliveries came in better than expected, most of Friday’s rally held through to the close. Even the energy storage miss versus expectations didn’t drag the stock back down. I think this optimistic momentum could last for a few more days, but I’m not assuming sales have already resumed growing.
The analyst expectations compiled by Tesla as of September 29 were for 461,974 deliveries; the actual figure released on October 2 was 486,532, up 5.3%. For people who were previously worried that cars might not be selling, this result really is better than expected. But deliveries in the same period last year were 497,099—this year is still 2.1% lower. Whether auto sales are better than expected is one thing; whether they’re higher than last year is another.
The energy storage side looks less impressive. Expectations were 15.9 GWh; actual was 13.7 GWh, down 13.8%. If you only focus on the auto numbers and say that TSLA is broadly ahead of expectations, you’d miss this part entirely.
What matters most to me is that, despite these two sets of data pointing in opposite directions, TSLA still closed up 4.65% on Friday at $370.59—close to that day’s high of $374.60. At least for this day, the shortfall in energy storage didn’t offset the optimism from auto deliveries. That’s why I’d rather see momentum continue into next week, and worry less about the gains being given back immediately.
Since Friday already ran up, going bullish again does come with a cost: some of the good news has already been digested. How much profit the extra cars actually bring is still unknown—third-quarter earnings won’t be released until after the U.S. market close on October 21. Stronger-than-expected volumes could also come with bigger price concessions, so you can’t simply assume profits will rise in tandem with sales.
My preference is confined to the next trading week. If the daily close falls back below $354.11 before the news is reported, I’ll withdraw the bullish view. That was Thursday’s closing price—falling back there would suggest the rally after this news has been erased. As for whether TSLA can stay bullish after October 21, we’ll have to wait for the profit figures to answer.
#TSLA #美股 #汽车交付