In the past 24 hours,
$ARM has fallen by 4.964%, with the price at 233.17. This pullback isn’t particularly severe in on-chain US stock futures, but from a Trump trade perspective, the current structure exposes a contradiction: the price is dropping, yet the funding rate is positive.
This means the long side is still paying to maintain their positions—they haven’t exited, and they even added more despite the unfavorable move. A decline combined with a positive funding rate is a classic structure of longs being trapped and averaging down; their costs keep accumulating. If this is merely a short-term policy sentiment disruption, then perhaps this holding-the-line behavior can wait out a turning point.
However, the core variable in the Trump trade is how quickly policy is implemented. Market bets on specific provisions can change in an instant. If later there isn’t clearer positive stimulus, these contrarian long positions will face dual pressure: unrealized losses plus the continued need to pay funding. Conversely, if any policy signals come out that are beyond expectations, these stacked long positions could become fuel for a rapid rally.
Next, I’ll watch whether the 233.17 level can hold. If the price keeps sinking while the funding rate remains positive, that would indicate the risk of long-side liquidation is building up, and I will avoid it—waiting instead for the funding rate to turn negative, or for the price to break below key support on increased volume before looking for an opportunity. At this level, neither the bulls nor the bears feel comfortable; better to wait until the signal is clear.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #ARM
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?