GainerFlow

🔥 #CPIWatch — The Fed’s Next Move Just Got More Interesting
Today’s U.S. inflation report has put the Federal Reserve firmly back in the spotlight.
August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. Rising gasoline and energy costs were an important part of the inflation pressure.
This comes after last week’s surprisingly strong jobs report. U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped 162,000 in August, nearly three times the 56,000 market expectation, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%.
So, what does the market think?
The latest CPI data has pushed expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed hike sharply higher. Reuters reports that rate-hike odds moved to around 85%, while another Reuters update put the probability as high as 91% after the inflation release.
My take: the Fed has a strong reason to hike, but the market reaction could still be volatile.
📉 Stocks may face pressure from higher rates, but U.S. equities are already showing resilience today.
🥇 Gold is also interesting. Higher rates and yields are normally bearish for gold, yet spot gold rebounded more than 1% today as buyers stepped in after the recent dip.
For traders, I think the biggest signal will come from Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and Fed guidance.
My bias: Hawkish Fed + short-term pressure on risk assets, but I would avoid chasing the first move.
What’s your call? 👇
25bps Hike 🔥 or Hold 🕊️?
Bullish 📈 or Bearish 📉?
#CPIWatch # #CPI
# #FederalReserve
# #Fed
#Inflation #Stocks #Gold #Trading #BinanceSquare