The Binance Hack Just Put
$RUNE in the Crosshairs — Down 15% and Testing Its Last Big Support
Not a dip-buying post — a facts post, because
$RUNE is now a regulatory story, not just a chart.
📊 Snapshot (live, 2 Nov)
Price: $0.5310 | 24h: -15.45%
24h range: $0.4940 – $0.6420
Market cap: $174.4M | Volume: $17.4M | Rank: #140
✅ What actually happened
• Oct 31: an Ethereum block reorg made THORChain pay out 10 ETH twice. Its solvency checker halted ETH swaps in ~2 minutes; node operators then froze 10 chains.
• The fix: the user returned the 10 ETH, and THORChain confirmed Nov 1 the vault is solvent again. Balance-sheet damage: zero.
• The real problem: Chainalysis says Binance-hack (DPRK-linked) funds moved through THORChain — ~$48.3M in swaps. The FBI, Secret Service and IRS-CI have urged node operators to block those flows, and the co-founders publicly disagree on freezing funds.
• Tether briefly froze, then released, $1.45M $USDT in THORChain vaults during the halt.
• This is still a real protocol: native BTC/ETH swaps, Monero + Zcash added in August (V3.20), V3.21 fixes shipped Oct 23. But it now trades at $174M — 97.5% below its $20.87 ATH.
📉 The chart
Price broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.626) and 50-day SMA ($0.654). Daily RSI is 30 — oversold. The only line holding is the 200-day SMA at $0.498, and today's low ($0.494) already wicked through it.
🎲 Probability read (estimates — NOT a guarantee)
• Relief bounce, daily close back above $0.555: ~27%
• Chop, $0.48–$0.555, while headlines settle: ~36%
• Breakdown, daily close below $0.475: ~37%
The $0.498 support held its first test today. Odds now: UP ~42% / DOWN ~58% until $0.555 is reclaimed.
🎯 Plan (speculators only)
No entry here. Reclaim entry: daily close above $0.555. Or wait for a base at $0.48–$0.50.
Stop: daily close below $0.475.
Targets if it bounces: $0.626 → $0.654 → $0.74.
Max 1% of capital, spot only, NO leverage — Binance spot volume is just ~$3.7M/day. Confidence: Low.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#RUNE #THORChain #DeFi #Altcoins