影子小鼹鼠

The biggest wildcard this weekend: Trump again floated a “small-scale Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, and U.S. officials say “Iran could be struck this weekend.”

Not acting before the midterm elections is the politically correct move, but as soon as talk of “striking Iran this weekend” surfaced, the market sold off first and asked questions later. With this kind of tail risk, don’t go too heavy on positions.

Whether $BTC 80K can hold depends half on the Fed and half on Trump’s tweets. Brent crude is above $116, with oil prices and geopolitics pinning risk assets to the floor. Trade cautiously.

#crypto #GeoRisk

Last week, the notional trading volume of crypto-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion, a record high.

Prediction markets are eating into CEXs’ short-term speculative demand—as even “Will BTC go up or down in the next 15 minutes?” becomes a compliant bet, retail attention is starting to shift from perpetual futures to event contracts.

This is a clear signal that crypto exchanges need to find a second growth curve.

Major announcement: Base says Mastercard will launch “agent payments” based on the x402 protocol and USDC, with settlement on the Base network.

The era of AI agents directly spending crypto to buy things is here—Web3 payments are becoming the clearing and settlement layer for the agent economy.

#Web3 #AI #Base

Mastercard has adopted an “agent payment” solution based on the x402 protocol. Payments are denominated in USDC and settled on the Base network.

x402 is a machine-to-machine micropayment standard designed specifically for AI agents. This is a key step in turning the idea of “AI agents spending money themselves” into infrastructure that can actually process settlements.

The fact that a card network is directly integrating with x402 shows that Web3 payments are becoming the default clearing and settlement layer for the agent economy. This is a tangible boost for the Base ecosystem, payment stablecoins, and x402-related assets.

Swiss bank balance sheets have been enlarged by $BTC in assets

MultiSYG is a regulated BTC-collateralized lending product, with collateral held in a dedicated multisig wallet; the keys are split among the customer, Sygnum Bank, and an independent institutional custodian. An on-chain script enforces multisig, and recovery is possible if a single key is lost.

BTC now accounts for 80% of Sygnum’s collateral (up from 63% in 2023, +30%); more than 1/5 of customers hold Lombard loans.

Bitcoin’s one-year volatility has fallen from ~80% in 2021 to ~40% in 2026.

This is the real “hard evidence” narrative for RWA / institutional adoption — BTC is turning from a speculative asset into bank-grade collateral. Halved volatility + rising correlation with gold + deeper market liquidity are the underlying reasons it can be written onto Swiss bank balance sheets. What this means for the ecosystem: liquidity without selling coins, and structural absorption of long-term holders’ selling pressure.

Bitcoin Core has changed its security policy—because AI makes vulnerabilities too easy to “mine.” AI is prompting a reassessment of the disclosure process for a network holding trillions in assets.

Meanwhile, the PHP Foundation has also admitted that delays in fixing a critical RCE vulnerability amounted to a “structural failure.”

The lesson for our industry: AI is both a threat multiplier and an audit accelerator. Older Web3 projects, especially those using outdated frameworks, should audit themselves immediately.

A new wave of security vulnerabilities will be exposed sooner or later, and losses of funds will become increasingly common.

As the world’s largest provider of computing power rentals, Musk has leveraged the global shortage of computing resources not only to stabilize $SPCX ’s stock price, but also to secure a massive number of GPUs with consistently relatively low long-term interest rates. It has to be said: when it comes to foresight, Musk is truly far ahead.

CoinGlass live data captured at 13:20 GMT+8

CoinGlass live: 24-hour liquidations across the entire market totaled $471,172,326 (+77.33%), with longs still making up an overwhelming majority (over 90%).

- Compared with $458 million at 11:06, it’s now $471 million. Only about $13 million was added in two hours, and the pace has clearly slowed → a sign that deleveraging is nearing its end.

This means the bulls who were going to get liquidated have already been wiped out, and deleveraging is entering its final stage. OI is still falling (-2.91%), which points to positions being closed rather than new ones being opened. This kind of “decline on shrinking volume” is often a sign of a short-term bottom.

Institutional ETFs have snapped up over $1 billion in three days. Retail sells at a loss, institutions buy—the same old story. A bottom doesn’t mean an immediate rally; there’s a chance only if 80K holds.

Short covering in Asia on Friday afternoon: BTC reclaims $82K, ETH climbs back above $2,400.

This afternoon’s rebound in Asia is a technical short-covering rally, not a trend reversal.

The biggest warning sign is Brent crude breaking above $114 while even gold falls below $4,000. This isn’t classic safe-haven buying—it’s a liquidity-squeeze-driven risk-off move, with markets hiding in cash and the U.S. dollar.

BTC has reclaimed $82K, but the critical $80K level is still unresolved. Don’t get carried away before European and U.S. markets open. The real test is how U.S. stocks open tonight and where oil prices go.

Real-time market snapshot: Deleveraging is underway, while institutions are quietly buying
- $458 million liquidated in 24h, with longs accounting for 90%+; 103,000 traders were liquidated
- BTC $81,018 (-4.26%), ETH $2,374 (-5.53%)
- Contrarian signal: BTC ETFs saw +$528 million in a single day, with cumulative inflows exceeding $1 billion over three days
- ZEC/NEAR/UNI are actively deleveraging, with positions being closed rather than held

Retail investors are panic-selling, while institutions are using ETFs to scoop up coins. $80K will be the dividing line for the market's next move.

Romance from France

At 8:55 a.m. Beijing time on October 16, Tesla officially unveiled the next-generation Roadster, bringing SpaceX rocket cold-gas thruster technology to a production sports car.
All footage shown at the event of the car lifting off and adjusting its attitude in midair was filmed on location at SpaceX’s Texas test site. Elon Musk personally confirmed at the event: no AI-generated content, no CG effects—just a real car demonstration, bringing truly sci-fi-level aerospace technology into reality.

While one side looks to the future, continually pushing the physical boundaries of the auto industry,
our automotive discourse is still going round and round over brake controversies.

A blacklist of KOLs has appeared—are they getting ready to set up an industry self-regulatory association? Haha.

Is this driving the blind to the brink of despair?!

Lately, in the market, all I’ve been hearing is that policies are supporting them—only to find that what they call support is nothing but emptiness!

Hey friends, how do you spend the National Day holiday? Say no to coin trading—spend time with your family and kids! If that doesn’t work out, why not consider picking up some extra shifts?

Tomorrow at 4 a.m. to the U.S. to welcome Trump

Hope that this time, China and the U.S. can achieve tangible cooperation

According to official information, Binance Wallet has announced that it has launched the Polymarket/USD1 perpetual contract, with a maximum leverage of 3x. According to the page data, the contract’s current price is 25.99 USD1, the 24-hour trading volume is approximately 8440 USD1, and the open interest size is 1.32e4 USD1.

As a highly popular project in the prediction market, rumors about its listing have been spreading widely. Meanwhile, expectations for a former token airdrop have been fading further.

$polymarket

The fake-season is over again in a hurry, and it’s back to preparing to tighten screws! Work be like:

HR: Do you accept flexible work?
Job seeker: How flexible is it?🧐
HR: Work one day, rest one day.
Job seeker: That works.
HR: Looks like it’s not what you think—it’s…
HR: Work 24 hours, rest 24 hours!

Job seeker: What’s the salary for this position?
HR: 3.8K
Job seeker: 3800 is 3800—why add a K?
HR: Because our current offer is pretty competitive.
Job seeker: A job paying 3800—what kind of offer do you call that?

Job seeker: An offer is only one that’s above 10K.
Job seeker: 6–8K is called “worker,”
Job seeker: 4–6K is called “joker,”
Job seeker: 2–4K is only enough to be a “loser,”
Job seeker: You give me this salary,
Job seeker: I wouldn’t even be embarrassed to tell others I found a job,
Job seeker: I can only dare to say I found some work!

Recently, various launch pads have been launching new things, #MEME , and I’ve followed quite a few on-chain. Among the ones with a market cap of a few million, almost all of them have gone to zero. Unless there’s an interesting narrative or a bigger-picture, capable “whale/leader” with a strategy, it’s generally hard for retail investors to make money.

Brother Sun sues Jing, involving a surrogacy controversy. Jing collected 50 million yuan before and after, but failed to complete the surrogacy obligation and left the surrogacy agency on his own. This melon has already been pushed to the hot search!

I want to say: every time Brother Sun drops one of these bombshell stories, it leads to a new bull market. Waiting to see how this one turns out