bonds

Praise be to God! 🎓

I’ve completed the UNDERSTANDING BONDS course from Binance Academy.

Certificate of Completion - 24 October 2024
ID: BA-UB-1024-57893

Along with crypto, it’s also very important to understand traditional finance. Understanding the bond market is a great help with trading and investing.

The learning journey continues! 📚

#BinanceAcademy #BinanceSquare #CryptoEducation #Bonds #MYounasCrypto

🚨 HUGE: The US Treasury just bought back $6 BILLION of its own debt, taking October's total to $26.08 BILLION.
On October 27, Treasury targeted bonds with 20 to 30 years remaining and accepted the full $6 billion maximum from $10.75 billion offered, across six of 35 eligible issues. It paid between 52 and 71 cents on the dollar for the old, low-coupon bonds, about $3.8 billion in cash. It was the fourth operation to fill its entire limit.
Treasury calls these operations liquidity support, aimed at helping dealers offload older, thinly traded bonds and improving trading conditions. The program was expanded in August, when Treasury said it would at least double long-dated buybacks to $4 billion or more per operation.
The market response has been muted. The 10-year yield hit 5.342% on October 1, its highest since April 2002, as Treasury filled its cap, and long-term yields haven't clearly fallen on days when the buybacks maxed out. Bitcoin didn't get the 7% pop it enjoyed on the August announcement and slipped below $80,000, because this one was widely expected.
All eyes now turn to the quarterly refunding on November 4, when Treasury will provide more detail on future buyback sizes.
At $6 billion a shot, buybacks are plumbing, not policy. Whether they're enough to settle a market worried about supply is still an open question.
#Treasury #Bonds #Fed #Markets #Economy
$BTC $SOL $CL

The 10-year Treasury traded below 5% on Thursday for the first time since 23 September, on the same session December $BZ closed up 4.00% at 113.17. You'd normally expect an oil move that size to push yields up, since energy feeds straight into the inflation prints... this time the bid for duration came from Europe.

France's 10-year hit 5.142%, its highest since 2002 and above Treasuries for the first time since 2013, with the Bund spread at 176bp and French 5-year CDS over 100bp for the first time since October 2012. I think that's money running into Treasuries out of a European credit scare, and for a session it beat the oil impulse. The Fed is in blackout until the 29th, so none of it came from anything the Fed said.

$BTC fell 3.59% the same day, which isn't what the rates picture alone would have you expect from an asset with no cash flow.

I'm watching whether the 10-year can stay under 5% into the FOMC on 27-28 October while Brent holds this bid.

#Bonds #Treasuries #Macro #Bitcoin

TMF long idea at market, 29.33 on the perp, daily chart. TMF is the 3x long 20+ year Treasury bond fund, and long bonds are turning up as markets go risk-off.

Stop is 27.63. Targets are 29.64, 31.47 and 33.40. The first one is close, the bigger move sits at the other two.

That's about +1.1%, +7.3% and +13.9% to the targets, against roughly 5.8% to the stop. It also works as a hedge for other risk-on positions. I'd risk 1-2% of capital at the stop and size from that.

$TMF

#TMF #Bonds #TradeIdea

European bond markets saw a major upheaval today. France’s 10-year government bond yield just hit the 5% mark, its highest level since July 2002. Meanwhile, the risk gauge measuring the credit risk of French government bonds also approached 160 basis points, setting a new high not seen in nearly 15 years.

The severity of this sell-off has clearly exceeded the day-to-day expectations of many institutions. As the eurozone’s second-largest core economy, France is seeing its sovereign borrowing costs soar to levels not seen in more than two decades, reflecting a concentrated surge in market concerns about Europe’s fiscal health and debt sustainability.

In traditional financial markets, persistently high yields on core sovereign bonds tend to push up global risk-free rates and put substantial pressure on euro-denominated assets and equity valuations. As interest rates surge and sovereign risk is repriced, capital typically tends to pull back from liquidity and adopt a defensive, wait-and-see stance.

For crypto markets, persistently high macro funding costs continue to weigh on liquidity, and short-term speculative sentiment may remain cautious. However, the ongoing exposure of risks in traditional fiat sovereign debt is also leading some investors to keep an eye on the long-term hedging value of non-sovereign assets. The outlook will depend on how the battle over macro liquidity unfolds. $BTC

#Bonds #MacroEconomy #Eurozone

European financial markets have just seen major volatility, with the yield on 10-year French government bonds reaching 5%, its highest level since July 2002. At the same time, the risk premium on French bonds came close to 160 basis points, reaching a 15-year high.

This move reflects mounting public debt pressures and growing political instability in the eurozone’s second-largest economy. France’s borrowing costs rising more than expected is fueling concerns about financial fragmentation within the EU.

The sharp rise in bond yields is putting downward pressure on the EUR and increasing the cost of capital worldwide. Major investors are becoming less willing to take risks, forcing investment funds to rebalance their portfolios to hedge against macroeconomic risks.

For crypto markets, widespread caution could slow capital inflows into $BTC and other risky assets in the short term. Investors should closely monitor global liquidity conditions before opening large leveraged positions. 📊

#Bonds #MacroEconomy #Eurozone

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said publicly on Tuesday that he expects turmoil in bond markets triggered by a spike in French government bond yields to have no spillover effects on global markets. Recently, amid intensifying protests and pressure from its fiscal deficit, France has seen a sharp rise in sovereign debt risk premiums, raising liquidity concerns among investors in Europe and around the world.

From a macroeconomic fundamentals perspective, the situation in France has been characterized as a localized fiscal and political struggle, rather than a systemic sovereign debt crisis. Bessent explicitly noted that funds are flowing from vulnerable European assets into U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. This effectively blocks the chain reaction of liquidity crisis transmission and eases market fears of a repeat of the “European debt crisis.”

Technically, global sovereign bond yield curves have neither inverted across the board nor surged uncontrollably, while safe-haven buying has provided solid support for U.S. Treasury prices. The U.S. dollar index has remained resilient, buoyed by the return of liquidity, without triggering a contraction in cross-border credit. Overall, financial conditions remain relatively loose and stable.

For crypto assets, localized geopolitical and sovereign risks have not escalated into a widespread liquidity fire sale; instead, they are a positive sign that risk appetite is recovering. As executives’ remarks have effectively calmed market fears, core digital assets such as $BTC have demonstrated remarkable resilience, with ample buying momentum on dips. The overall upward trend remains intact.

#MacroEconomics #Bonds #CryptoLiquidity

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to fall in the latest trading session, dropping 11 basis points to around 5.08%. In terms of market structure, long-term Treasury yields are showing clear signs of a technical peak and pullback after heavy trading at elevated levels.

This move reflects the market’s gradually pricing in the end point of monetary tightening and mounting economic pressures. The risk-free rate premium driven by the previous sustained rise in yields is being absorbed by buying interest. Technically, the overbought RSI has corrected, and a downward trend line has established a local turning point.

For traditional financial markets, lower benchmark rates directly ease valuation pressures, momentum behind the U.S. dollar index’s gains is fading, and global asset pricing is shifting back toward risk appetite. Expectations of looser liquidity as rates fall are providing support for a rebound in equities and commodities.

In the crypto space, the decline in risk-free yields is likely to significantly boost risk appetite, with capital potentially flowing out of fixed-income products and back into high-beta assets. As liquidity pressures ease, the crypto market, led by $BTC , is building a solid base of support and has the technical momentum for a further breakout.📈

#Bonds #TreasuryYields #CryptoMarket

Oil pushed the US long end both ways this week, and I think it's the cleanest look we've had at energy feeding into rates. On 7 October the 30-year touched a 24-year high and the 10-year its highest since 2002, and Reuters tied it to $BZ oil above $100 bringing back worries that inflation stays stubborn. The next day Trump said the US won't attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, and the 10-year closed at 5.22%, down 6bp, with the 30-year at 5.60%, down 7bp.

Underneath that, the ACM model has the expected path of Fed rates down 8.6bp in the week to 7 October while the term premium rose 10.0bp... so the market priced a little less Fed and still asked for more to hold duration.

That long yield is the discount rate for anything without a cash flow, $BTC and $XAU included. September CPI on 14 October is the next print that could move it, and I'll be watching whether the term premium keeps rising if oil cools off.

#Bonds #Rates #Oil #Macro #Gold

In the 30-year Treasury bond auction completed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury on October 8, the winning yield surged significantly to 5.618%, well above the 5.308% from the prior auction. Meanwhile, the bid-to-cover ratio fell from 2.61 to 2.54, indicating a clear weakening in demand for long-dated U.S. Treasuries.

This outcome reflects intensifying market concerns about sticky long-term inflation and an expansion of fiscal deficits. Against the backdrop of cooling demand, investors are demanding a higher risk premium, completely dashing any optimistic expectations of near-term liquidity easing.

A broad rise in U.S. Treasury yields will further lift the risk-free return rate across the economy, putting substantial downward pressure on the valuations of risk assets. The spike in long-end yields is also strengthening the U.S. dollar index, creating continued pressure for tighter liquidity in both the stock market and highly leveraged financial markets.

For the crypto market, elevated risk-free rates significantly reduce the appetite to allocate capital to high-volatility assets. If long-end rates remain at current high levels, crypto assets led by $BTC will face a dual risk in the near term: liquidity being drained and valuations coming under pressure.🏛️

#USDT #Bonds #MacroEconomy

U.S. 10-Year Borrowing Cost Hits Highest Since 2000 Despite Strong Auction Demand

📊 The U.S. Treasury reopened $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 5.300% yield, the highest borrowing cost for this maturity since November 2000. Compared with the September auction, the yield has risen by nearly 47 basis points.

🏦 Demand remained firm, with a 2.77 bid-to-cover ratio. Indirect bidders took more than 80% of the competitive allocation, while primary dealers were left with only about 2.5%. The auction also stopped through by roughly 1.8 basis points, indicating solid absorption.

📉 The 10-year yield fell from around 5.316% before the result to 5.273% afterward, after touching 5.361% earlier in the session. The result provided short-term relief for bonds, but did not change the broader backdrop of persistently elevated U.S. yields.

#Bonds $PENDLE

📰 **Market Update** • Dow falls 500 points as 10-year yield rises to highest level in 24 years: Live updates - CNBC • Investors pick new darlings and duds as selloff rocks Europe's bond market - Reuters • Should I put my nest egg in a 30-year Treasury bond? • 10-year Treasury note yield hits highest level since 2002 as traders brace for key bond sale ⚠️ Market update, not financial advice.

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#Trading #Binance #AI #Bonds #StockMarket

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Disclaimer: My personal analysis, not financial advice. DYOR.

The U.S. Treasury market saw a key breakout in the latest trading session. The 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points during the day to 5.7041%, setting a new high not seen since 2002.

From a macro and technical perspective, the sharp rise in long-term yields directly confirms a technical repricing of the prospect that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period, as well as the risk of a second wave of inflation.

The 30-year Treasury yield’s break above a resistance range that had held for more than two decades reflects a market reassessment of long-term sovereign debt supply pressures and inflation expectations. This move significantly exceeds the previous baseline consensus on when the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle would end, indicating that the term premium is being comprehensively repriced.

In traditional financial markets, multi-year highs in long-term interest rates put pressure on the valuations of conventional fixed-income assets, but also signal that nominal economic growth remains resilient. As the yield curve undergoes structural adjustments, volatility in both the U.S. dollar index and sovereign bonds is rising in tandem. Market capital is accelerating its search for high-quality assets that offer inflation protection and independent liquidity.

For crypto assets, this is often a classic catalyst for forming a long-term bottom. As yields on traditional risk-free assets approach a near-term peak, the pressure on high-beta assets may revert toward the mean. The appeal of core digital assets such as $BTC as decentralized hard assets is rising against the trend, and the subsequent redistribution of liquidity is likely to provide solid buying support.📈

#Bonds #MacroEconomics #TreasuryYields

The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by another 6 basis points in today's trading session, officially reaching 5.7041%. This is a new record high not seen since 2002, continuing to reflect selling pressure in the long-term debt market.

This rise reflects deep market concerns about persistent budget deficits and entrenched inflation. Long-term yields remaining at historically high levels are making long-term borrowing costs across the entire economy significantly more expensive than expected.

This development is increasing negative pressure on traditional financial markets, particularly highly valued stocks and risky assets. The U.S. dollar is likely to continue receiving support, while the pressure from discounting cash flows on global assets continues to grow.

For the crypto market, risk-free bond yields above 5.7% are drawing liquidity away from speculative assets. $BTC The broader market may also face short-term volatility as capital seeks safe havens offering high yields. #Bonds #USYield #MacroEconomics

🚨 THE U.S. BOND MARKET IS FLASHING A WARNING WALL STREET CAN’T IGNORE.
The 20-year Treasury yield just hit 5.735%.
The 30-year is pushing 5.7%.
The 10-year touched 5.34%.
All near levels not seen in roughly 24 years.
And this is bigger than bonds.
Long-term yields have surged more than 100 basis points since early March as inflation, massive government debt and geopolitical risk push borrowing costs higher.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is still hovering near record highs.
AI is keeping the party alive.
But underneath the surface, cracks are starting to appear.
Mortgage rates are rising.
Housing activity is weakening.
Credit spreads are beginning to widen.
Stocks can ignore rising yields for a while.
They cannot ignore them forever.
If borrowing costs stay this high, the pressure eventually moves into:
Growth.
Corporate earnings.
Valuations.
And ultimately, asset prices.
The market may still look strong today.
But the bond market is warning that the cost of money is changing fast.
And that could become the next major risk for stocks and crypto.
#Bitcoin #StockMarket #Bonds #FederalReserve #Economy

⚖️ Bitcoin now has a real rival: 5% bonds.

📉 BTC: -29.7% over 12 months
📉 ETH: -38.4%
📉 XRP: -49.6%
🏦 10Y Treasury yield: ~5.17%

At near-zero yields, holding BTC cost little. At 5%, waiting has a price.

#bitcoin #Bonds #Macro

🚨 MARKET SELL-OFF: 🇯🇵 Japanese equities came under renewed pressure today as the global bond market rout continued weighing on risk assets worldwide. 📉👀
Rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions and increasing fears around: ⚠️ Higher borrowing costs
⚠️ Slower economic growth
⚠️ Persistent inflation pressures
⚠️ Valuation stress in equities and tech stocks
Analysts estimate that trillions of yen in market value were erased during the latest market decline as investors reduced exposure to risk-sensitive assets.
The bond market remains the key macro driver influencing stocks, Bitcoin, crypto, and global financial sentiment. 🔥
📌 Follow for the latest updates on bonds, stocks, Bitcoin, crypto, and global financial markets.
#bitcoin #Crypto #Japan #Bonds #BinanceSquare

🚨 Macro Alert
The U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction cleared at 5.058%—the highest yield since the run-up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
📊 Higher bond yields can tighten financial conditions and increase pressure on risk assets such as $BTC and equities.
👀 Markets will be watching whether yields continue climbing or begin to ease in the coming weeks.
$BTC #Macro #Bonds #Crypto #BinanceSquare 📉

🚨SPACEX PLANS TO RAISE $25B IN BONDS — WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR MARKET?

SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace company, is reportedly preparing a high-grade bond issuance worth $25 billion. This isn't a minor move — it's potentially one of the largest fundraising efforts in private tech company history.
Notably, SpaceX is choosing bonds over an IPO or new equity. This signals they want major liquidity without diluting ownership. Funds will likely go toward Starship development, Starlink satellite expansion, and long-term Mars mission infrastructure.
Market impact? When a company the size of SpaceX pulls $25 billion from the bond market, it draws liquidity away from other instruments. Institutional investors who typically allocate to risk assets — including crypto — may temporarily rotate into SpaceX bonds offering competitive yields backed by a powerhouse name.
Watch BTC and ETH price action over the next 2–3 weeks. When global liquidity shifts, crypto always feels it first.
Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
Follow @CoinbroNews for the next update. 🚀
#SpaceX #Elon #Bonds #Crypto #SpaceXLosesOver600BInThreeDays $SPCXB $BTC

🇯🇵💰 Japan Cuts U.S. Treasuries by $26.4B in June
Japan reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by $26.4 billion in June. 📉🇺🇸
That’s a notable move from one of the biggest foreign holders of U.S. debt. Could this signal a shift in Japan’s asset allocation—or simply portfolio rebalancing?
👀 Traders will be watching whether the selling continues in the coming months.
#Japan #USTreasuries #USDebt #Bonds
$BTC
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