Bulls Target $1.740, But Bearish Divergence Raises Red Flags
$TRUMP PRICE ALERT
$TRUMP is showing a modest 1.7% gain, with price trading around $1.715. The short-term structure remains bullish, but a fresh 4H bearish divergence against BTC is flashing a warning: is this the beginning of another leg higher, or a temporary bounce before a pullback?
Market Structure and Bias
My bias is cautiously bullish in the short term. The 1H chart continues to form higher highs and higher lows, but the daily and weekly trends remain bearish. This makes the current move a counter-trend opportunity that requires strict confirmation.
Key Trading Levels
- Current Price: $1.715
- Resistance 1: $1.728–$1.740
- Resistance 2: $1.777
- Major Resistance: $1.802
- Demand Zone: $1.669–$1.662
- Structure Invalidation: 1H close below $1.685
Bullish Scenario
If buyers maintain control and reclaim the recent swing high around $1.729, the next targets are $1.740, $1.777, and potentially $1.802.
However, I would prefer a pullback into the $1.669–$1.662 demand zone, followed by a strong bullish reaction, engulfing candle, or lower-timeframe market structure shift before considering a new long position.
What Could Go Wrong?
The 4H bearish divergence against BTC signals possible momentum exhaustion. Open interest stands at $42.9M, up 0.7% over 24 hours, while funding is positive at 0.0050%. The taker ratio of 0.93x indicates sell-side activity is outweighing buying activity, and a reported $116K sell order adds another reason for caution.
If $1.685 breaks on a 1H closing basis, the bullish setup is invalidated. Downside levels to monitor are $1.662 and then $1.614.
My Final Verdict
$TRUMP still has short-term upside potential, but the divergence and selling pressure cannot be ignored. Watch the $1.685 structure level and the $1.662 demand zone closely. Confirmation over speculation is the key.
Not investment advice. Educational report only.
CHIL-WITH-CRYPTO
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