fomcwatch

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its target range at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 27–28 meeting, leaving Chair Kevin Warsh with a communications challenge, according to The New York Times. He must explain why the Fed is not raising rates despite persistent inflation pressure, reaffirm its commitment to fighting inflation, and keep the door open to another hike in December.October Hike Bets FadedAfter the Fed raised rates in September, markets initially priced another hike for October. Comments in late September and early October from New York Fed President John Williams, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller, broadly signaling that the Fed could wait a little longer, cut the odds of an October hike from above 70% to below 30%. Odds have since fallen to about 12%.Inflation Pressures PersistHigh oil prices and demand for materials and electricity from AI infrastructure projects pushed up inflation pressure in September. Markets have also come under strain: the Nasdaq 100 has fallen more than 7% since its record high on October 6, and the 10-year Treasury yield stayed above 5% for several weeks.Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, expects the Fed to hold this week but still sees a December hike as possible. Warsh needs to explain “why not act in October, and why December is still under consideration,” he said.A Politically Sensitive PauseSince taking office in May, Warsh has offered little forward guidance on the rate path. His brief press conference after the July hold unsettled markets. Hawkish remarks in August, the September hike and a dot plot signaling one more hike this year restored some stability. With the decision falling six days before the November 3 midterms, and after President Donald Trump criticized the September hike, analysts say Warsh needs to avoid any impression that the pause is politically motivated.

$BTC has reached a critical juncture as the US Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision approaches, amid persistent inflationary pressures and growing uncertainty over the path of monetary policy in the coming months. In my view, the meeting’s impact will extend beyond the interest rate decision itself to how markets interpret the central bank’s policy outlook and whether it intends to maintain restrictive monetary conditions or signal further tightening ahead.
These developments are particularly significant as $BTC trades near the $80,000 level after struggling to regain its bullish momentum. Following the latest pullback, the performance of the largest cryptocurrency has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, particularly US inflation, energy prices, Treasury yields, and movements in the US dollar. These factors highlight that Bitcoin does not move independently of traditional markets but is influenced by shifts in risk appetite and the opportunity cost of holding assets that generate no regular income.bearish scenario, persistent inflation and rising expectations of further monetary tightening could revive selling pressure on Bitcoin. In this case, the $77,000–$77,765 support zone deserves close attention. A decisive breakdown below this range, accompanied by stronger selling pressure, could deepen the correction. However, such a move alone would not be sufficient to confirm the start of a prolonged bear market.
In a bullish scenario, a less hawkish Fed tone, combined with improving investment flows and easing pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields, could help $BTC reclaim nearby resistance levels, starting with $81,300 and then $82,500, based on the technical levels identified in the analysis. A sustained move above these areas could strengthen the recovery outlook, provided demand remains firm and the rally does not turn into a short-lived speculative move.
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Fed Decision Day Preview: What to Expect from Tomorrow's Rate Announcement
​The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its October monetary policy meeting tomorrow afternoon, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to present the central bank's rate decision and economic outlook.
​Coming off the September policy shift—where the central bank implemented a 25-basis-point increase to pull the federal funds target range up to 3.75%–4.00%—all eyes on Wall Street are focused on whether policymakers will pause to evaluate data or push rates higher.
​Key Expectations for Tomorrow's Meeting
Key Themes to Watch
​1. The Tactical Pause
​Financial markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a rate hold at 3.75%–4.00%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders place an over 90% probability on the Fed keeping borrowing costs steady today. After lifting rates in September for the first time in three years, committee members are expected to skip back-to-back increases to monitor incoming inflation and labor data.
​2. Guidance for the December Meeting
​Because today’s meeting does not feature an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), investor focus will center on Chair Powell's tone during the press conference. Future pricing indicates a ~75% chance of another 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting if core inflation pressures persist.
​3. Key Economic Indicators in Play
​Inflation Pressures: Sticky prices across consumer categories (services, auto, housing) have kept policymakers cautious about calling an end to rate adjustments.
​Treasury Yield Movement: Bond markets are already reflecting a "higher for longer" policy stance, with 2-year Treasury yields trading around 4.73% and 10-year yields near 5.00% ahead of the announcement.
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