Core CPI +0.3% m/m — above the forecast. The probability of a 25 bp rate hike jumped to ~90% (a month ago it was ~40%). This looks like the start of a cycle rather than a one-time measure.
If they raise rates, risk assets (BTC, tech) will be under pressure, while gold could benefit as a hedge.
I’m waiting for the decision myself and not opening any new positions yet — the uncertainty is too high.
Fed rate hike this week: a one-off reaction or the start of a new cycle?
The market heads into the Fed week with the highest expectations in recent months for tighter policy. August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m—slightly above the forecast of 0.2%, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%. Formally, the figures are not catastrophic, but the exceedance in core CPI is what triggered the move: the probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting jumped to 80–90%, whereas a month ago the market was pricing in only about 40%.
$ETH A sharp jump to $2615 and an equally sharp pullback — what happened? On September 11, U.S. inflation data (CPI) was released, and the market that had widely been positioned short on ETH got hit by a short squeeze: the price was pushed from $2437 to $2667 in a single session. Only on ETH, shorts were liquidated for about ~$250M. Next — a rollback of almost all the momentum; right now ETH is around $2500. A sudden pump without support from real demand usually doesn’t last.
Return of the “crypto Nostradamus”: a genius or a beautiful legend?
In crypto Twitter again discussing an account under the name Royal Kane (formerly Kane XBT) — a trader who claims that he shorted $BTC at the peak around $126K and made a fortune while the market fell to $91K. According to him, the old account grew from 40K to 400K subscribers in 4 months, and after getting shut down, he came back with a new one.
$BTC $ETH BTC at $77.5K, ETH at $2.5K — the market is sideways. But in the US Senate, they introduced the final version of the CLARITY Act with strict rules for officials in the crypto business — Bernstein believes the market hasn’t priced this in yet.
Conclusion: price quiet often precedes a sharp move on news. Keeping that in mind before entering.