Jumi - Crypto Insight
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Jumi - Crypto Insight
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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered remarks last Friday evening during the Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks. According to StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada’s assessment, Waller clearly said he would no longer rely entirely on forward guidance and refused to make any advance commitment regarding the September rate decision. Although this relatively hawkish tone quickly boosted market odds for a 25-basis-point hike in September from 30% to about 50%, it also reflects that policymakers have not fully closed the window for waiting and watching—key decision points remain tightly linked to the major data releases expected soon.
From a macro game-theory perspective, market sentiment appears to have priced in this hawkish message somewhat excessively. In his speech, Waller reiterated that fighting inflation remains the top priority, but he also explicitly expressed confidence that core inflation is gradually getting closer to the Fed’s stated target. Under the current data-dependent decision-making framework, before the September policy meeting, a crucial nonfarm payroll report and CPI inflation data will still be released. Given recent signs that employment data has weakened more than expected, as long as subsequent macro data continues to cool, the so-called September rate-hike expectations will very likely be swiftly discredited by the market and retraced.
In terms of how this has played out in macro financial markets, after a short-lived, pulse-like surge in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, there has been a lack of momentum to break through the key prior resistance levels on a sustained basis. This technical rebound triggered by officials’ hawkish remarks has, in practice, provided a healthy pullback confirmation for macro liquidity expectations. The tug-of-war pricing around a 50/50 chance of a rate hike indicates that bearish momentum has been gradually exhausting itself; once the data side produces softer signals, the bond market and risk assets are likely to see a strong short-covering rally and a valuation repair.
For the crypto market, this macro sentiment disruption actually provides an excellent structure for buying the dip. $BTC has shown very strong on-chain follow-through while digesting the shock from the higher rate-hike probability; the key support zone has not been effectively broken through and instead shows a healthy, low-volume base-building pattern. As hawkish expectations are fully digested—coupled with macro data cooling as a catalyst that prompts the Fed to shift toward a more dovish stance—risk appetite is set to rebound quickly, driving funds back into the crypto ecosystem and building sufficient momentum for upside breakthroughs ahead.📈
#fed #加息预期 #宏观分析
From a macro game-theory perspective, market sentiment appears to have priced in this hawkish message somewhat excessively. In his speech, Waller reiterated that fighting inflation remains the top priority, but he also explicitly expressed confidence that core inflation is gradually getting closer to the Fed’s stated target. Under the current data-dependent decision-making framework, before the September policy meeting, a crucial nonfarm payroll report and CPI inflation data will still be released. Given recent signs that employment data has weakened more than expected, as long as subsequent macro data continues to cool, the so-called September rate-hike expectations will very likely be swiftly discredited by the market and retraced.
In terms of how this has played out in macro financial markets, after a short-lived, pulse-like surge in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, there has been a lack of momentum to break through the key prior resistance levels on a sustained basis. This technical rebound triggered by officials’ hawkish remarks has, in practice, provided a healthy pullback confirmation for macro liquidity expectations. The tug-of-war pricing around a 50/50 chance of a rate hike indicates that bearish momentum has been gradually exhausting itself; once the data side produces softer signals, the bond market and risk assets are likely to see a strong short-covering rally and a valuation repair.
For the crypto market, this macro sentiment disruption actually provides an excellent structure for buying the dip. $BTC has shown very strong on-chain follow-through while digesting the shock from the higher rate-hike probability; the key support zone has not been effectively broken through and instead shows a healthy, low-volume base-building pattern. As hawkish expectations are fully digested—coupled with macro data cooling as a catalyst that prompts the Fed to shift toward a more dovish stance—risk appetite is set to rebound quickly, driving funds back into the crypto ecosystem and building sufficient momentum for upside breakthroughs ahead.📈
#fed #加息预期 #宏观分析
The market panel data shows that Ondo ($ONDO ) has entered CoinGecko’s trending search ranking, with its market value consistently holding the 50th position. As heat continues to build in the RWA sector, the coin price, staying above key moving averages, demonstrates solid consolidation support. The volume-price structure is gradually shifting in favor of the bulls. If it can subsequently increase volume and break through the upper dense chip zone effectively, we believe there is room for a new round of risk-on valuation repair.🚀
#ONDO #RWA
#ONDO #RWA
At the just-concluded Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Conference, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered remarks reiterating that inflation must be brought back to the 2% target level, releasing a clear hawkish signal. Deutsche Bank subsequently adjusted its expectations quickly, forecasting that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September and again in December. CME’s rate-watching tool shows that, as of December, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of at least 50 basis points surged to 51% from 29% the previous day; the probability of a single 25-basis-point hike is 38%; and the probability of holding rates unchanged has dropped sharply to 11%. The entire interest-rate derivatives market is undergoing a round of intense repricing.
Judging from the technical side and macro pricing logic, the sharp swings in this yield curve are not just a reset of near-term expectations, but also reflects the market digesting the certainty of the Fed’s policy terminal point. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economist at Allianz, noted that the U.S. Treasury yield curve is showing a clear flattening trend: the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields has narrowed by about 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields has narrowed by about 10 basis points. Long-end yields staying restrained suggests that institutional investors still place a high level of confidence in the Fed’s long-term credibility in combating inflation. This kind of policy transparency that effectively removes negative surprises often signals that the bottom range for macro liquidity has likely been established.
As a result, traditional safe-haven assets saw a short-term technical pullback. Spot gold fell 3% during the day to $4,463.24 per ounce; holdings in the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, declined by 4.279 tons in a single day to 1,042.357 tons, indicating that the safe-haven premium is being re-evaluated. Meanwhile, on the commodities and energy front, expectations that the U.S. will cooperate with Venezuela on more than 65 billion barrels of oil have improved the supply outlook. Easing upward inflation pressure helps push down real borrowing costs over the medium to long term, paving the way for a liquidity rebound for risk assets after digesting the pain of rate hikes.
For the crypto market, this early release of macro expectations is actually an excellent signal that risk appetite is bottoming out. As the probability of rate hikes has been fully Price-in in the short term and panic sentiment has cleared from the trading screen, if key assets such as $BTC can complete a pullback and stabilize within key support zones, the market can quickly shift from defense to offense. Once the Fed’s rate-hike path becomes fully clear, marginal liquidity leaving safe-haven assets (such as gold) is likely to accelerate back into crypto sectors with higher elasticity and stronger anti-inflation characteristics, providing ample momentum to build a new round of structural bull market advance. 📈
#美联储 #加息 #Cryptocurrency market
Judging from the technical side and macro pricing logic, the sharp swings in this yield curve are not just a reset of near-term expectations, but also reflects the market digesting the certainty of the Fed’s policy terminal point. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economist at Allianz, noted that the U.S. Treasury yield curve is showing a clear flattening trend: the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields has narrowed by about 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields has narrowed by about 10 basis points. Long-end yields staying restrained suggests that institutional investors still place a high level of confidence in the Fed’s long-term credibility in combating inflation. This kind of policy transparency that effectively removes negative surprises often signals that the bottom range for macro liquidity has likely been established.
As a result, traditional safe-haven assets saw a short-term technical pullback. Spot gold fell 3% during the day to $4,463.24 per ounce; holdings in the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, declined by 4.279 tons in a single day to 1,042.357 tons, indicating that the safe-haven premium is being re-evaluated. Meanwhile, on the commodities and energy front, expectations that the U.S. will cooperate with Venezuela on more than 65 billion barrels of oil have improved the supply outlook. Easing upward inflation pressure helps push down real borrowing costs over the medium to long term, paving the way for a liquidity rebound for risk assets after digesting the pain of rate hikes.
For the crypto market, this early release of macro expectations is actually an excellent signal that risk appetite is bottoming out. As the probability of rate hikes has been fully Price-in in the short term and panic sentiment has cleared from the trading screen, if key assets such as $BTC can complete a pullback and stabilize within key support zones, the market can quickly shift from defense to offense. Once the Fed’s rate-hike path becomes fully clear, marginal liquidity leaving safe-haven assets (such as gold) is likely to accelerate back into crypto sectors with higher elasticity and stronger anti-inflation characteristics, providing ample momentum to build a new round of structural bull market advance. 📈
#美联储 #加息 #Cryptocurrency market
⚡️$EDENUSDT surged strongly by 15.61% in the past 24 hours, with volume quickly expanding! No clear news on the horizon yet—this is purely a short-term capital-driven bullish breakout pattern. Ride the momentum and look for bullish continuation 🚀
TP1: 0.069504
TP2: 0.071529
TP3: 0.074228
#EDEN #altcoin
TP1: 0.069504
TP2: 0.071529
TP3: 0.074228
#EDEN #altcoin
$BTC remains at the top of CoinGecko's trending search list and firmly holds its leading position in terms of market cap. The market structure is increasingly showing solid buyer resilience. From a technical perspective, the daily moving average system is gradually converging and building up to form a bullish alignment. The allocation of positions in the key support range is very well consolidated. As market attention continues to focus, the certainty of breaking upward through the resistance level and extending the bullish trend is becoming significantly stronger.🚀
#Bitcoin #Layer1
#Bitcoin #Layer1
In recent trading sessions, the US Treasury market has seen a notable surge in volatility. The 5-year US Treasury yield has continued to climb, breaking through to 4.48%, the highest level since February 2025. Judging by price action on the screen, this rapid rise in intermediate-term US Treasury yields has directly pushed the yield curve into the earlier dense trading range and key technical resistance zones, becoming the central focus for macro traders right now.
The core of this yield spike lies in the market’s reassessment of expectations for macro liquidity and the pace of rate cuts. 4.48% not only marks a fresh phase high, but also completes a test of the prior resistance platform on the technical charts. Notably, this rise in yields more reflects positioning adjustments after the market digests resilient economic data, rather than a systemic liquidity panic. As rates rapidly approach technical extremes, the release of short positions in the bond market often signals that short-term macro uncertainty is being priced in quickly.
From the perspective of traditional financial market cross-linkages, the 5-year US Treasury yield surge has supported the US dollar index’s high-range consolidation in the short term and has also exerted some valuation pressure on non-yielding assets. However, based on technical indicators, when yields approach the 4.50% area near a strong pressure threshold, signals of marginal slowdown in upward momentum have emerged, with indicators such as RSI showing signs of overbought top divergence. If intermediate-term US Treasury yields face resistance and pull back, cross-asset liquidity is likely to loosen in stages, and capital could quickly rotate back into risk assets.
For the crypto market, despite the spike in macro rates, $BTC and major coins have demonstrated strong order-book absorption and price resilience, without any panic-driven breakdown. This technically stubborn performance under bearish pressure suggests that underlying market buy-side demand is very solid. As macro bearish factors complete their pressure test at the 4.48% high, once yields peak and begin to fall, crypto assets may enter a valuation-repair rally driven by a rebound in risk appetite. 🚀
#美债 #宏观经济 #Interest rates
The core of this yield spike lies in the market’s reassessment of expectations for macro liquidity and the pace of rate cuts. 4.48% not only marks a fresh phase high, but also completes a test of the prior resistance platform on the technical charts. Notably, this rise in yields more reflects positioning adjustments after the market digests resilient economic data, rather than a systemic liquidity panic. As rates rapidly approach technical extremes, the release of short positions in the bond market often signals that short-term macro uncertainty is being priced in quickly.
From the perspective of traditional financial market cross-linkages, the 5-year US Treasury yield surge has supported the US dollar index’s high-range consolidation in the short term and has also exerted some valuation pressure on non-yielding assets. However, based on technical indicators, when yields approach the 4.50% area near a strong pressure threshold, signals of marginal slowdown in upward momentum have emerged, with indicators such as RSI showing signs of overbought top divergence. If intermediate-term US Treasury yields face resistance and pull back, cross-asset liquidity is likely to loosen in stages, and capital could quickly rotate back into risk assets.
For the crypto market, despite the spike in macro rates, $BTC and major coins have demonstrated strong order-book absorption and price resilience, without any panic-driven breakdown. This technically stubborn performance under bearish pressure suggests that underlying market buy-side demand is very solid. As macro bearish factors complete their pressure test at the 4.48% high, once yields peak and begin to fall, crypto assets may enter a valuation-repair rally driven by a rebound in risk appetite. 🚀
#美债 #宏观经济 #Interest rates
⚡️ ETHEREUM'S FUSAKA UPGRADE IS NOW LIVE!
Fusaka Ethereum’s second major network upgrade of the year has officially gone live.
This update enhances scalability and lowers costs through PeerDAS, a new mechanism that allows validators to verify only segmented portions of data instead of processing entire blobs.
#Fukasa #ETH $ETH
Fusaka Ethereum’s second major network upgrade of the year has officially gone live.
This update enhances scalability and lowers costs through PeerDAS, a new mechanism that allows validators to verify only segmented portions of data instead of processing entire blobs.
#Fukasa #ETH $ETH
🇺🇸 U.S. EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT (SEPTEMBER 2025)
📅 Expected to be announced today at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC).
Nonfarm Payrolls: ｜ Forecast: 118K ｜ Previous: 117K
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% ｜ Forecast: 4.3% ｜ Previous: 4.3%
Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed $BTC
📅 Expected to be announced today at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC).
Nonfarm Payrolls: ｜ Forecast: 118K ｜ Previous: 117K
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% ｜ Forecast: 4.3% ｜ Previous: 4.3%
Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed $BTC
Binance Notice of Removal of Spot Trading Pairs - 2025-11-21:
At 2025-11-21 03:00 (UTC): LA/FDUSD, SAHARA/BNB, SAHARA/FDUSD and TOWNS/BNB $LA
$SAHARA
$TOWNS
At 2025-11-21 03:00 (UTC): LA/FDUSD, SAHARA/BNB, SAHARA/FDUSD and TOWNS/BNB $LA
$SAHARA
$TOWNS
🇺🇸 U.S. EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT (SEPTEMBER 2025)
📅 Scheduled Release Date: November 20, 2025
Nonfarm Payrolls: ｜ Forecast: 180K ｜ Previous: 187K
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% ｜ Forecast: 4.3% ｜ Previous: 4.3%
Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed
📅 Scheduled Release Date: November 20, 2025
Nonfarm Payrolls: ｜ Forecast: 180K ｜ Previous: 187K
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% ｜ Forecast: 4.3% ｜ Previous: 4.3%
Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed
Update:
$BTC has officially closed the daily candle below $100,000 after more than 188 days.
Current price is $98,900, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 22.
$BTC has officially closed the daily candle below $100,000 after more than 188 days.
Current price is $98,900, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 22.
🇺🇸 US ECONOMIC DATA DELAYED! Jobless Claims and October CPI scheduled for 8:30 AM ET are now delayed due to the government shutdown.
#cpi
#cpi
President Donald Trump announced that he will provide at least $2,000 per person to most Americans, excluding high-income earners. The money will come from tariff revenues. Both the stock market and the crypto market reacted positively in the short term, driven by expectations of increased consumer spending from the cash injection.
In the past, under President Joe Biden, the largest stimulus package — the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, worth $1.9 trillion — included direct payments of $1,400 per person to many households. This policy helped strengthen consumer confidence and pushed indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to record highs.
However, the direct cash injections also contributed to a sharp rise in inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates aggressively during 2022–2023. Therefore, while this announcement may bring short-term optimism, the market should remain cautious about the risk of renewed inflation and potential Fed intervention if the stimulus proves too strong. $BTC
$BNB
In the past, under President Joe Biden, the largest stimulus package — the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, worth $1.9 trillion — included direct payments of $1,400 per person to many households. This policy helped strengthen consumer confidence and pushed indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to record highs.
However, the direct cash injections also contributed to a sharp rise in inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates aggressively during 2022–2023. Therefore, while this announcement may bring short-term optimism, the market should remain cautious about the risk of renewed inflation and potential Fed intervention if the stimulus proves too strong. $BTC
$BNB
Binance Alpha Listing:
Janction $JCT on November 10
Allora $ALLO on November 11
Eligible users can claim their airdrops using Binance Alpha Points on the Alpha Events page once trading opens. Further details will be announced soon.
Please stay tuned to Binance’s official channels for the latest updates.
Janction $JCT on November 10
Allora $ALLO on November 11
Eligible users can claim their airdrops using Binance Alpha Points on the Alpha Events page once trading opens. Further details will be announced soon.
Please stay tuned to Binance’s official channels for the latest updates.
In his latest speech, President Trump stated that he has signed executive orders to end federal government interference with crypto. He also declared that his goal is to make the United States the global leader in Bitcoin, crypto, and artificial intelligence (AI).
$BTC has rebounded to $103,800, and the Fear & Greed Index has risen to 24.
$BTC has rebounded to $103,800, and the Fear & Greed Index has risen to 24.
According to LookOnChain, the AMM platform Balancer has been hacked — the current loss is US$116 million and there’s no sign of it stopping. #balancer
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