Author: Climber, Golden Finance
The crypto market has recovered recently, and the price of BTC has continued to rise, approaching the $70,000 mark several times. As the last quarter of this year, most altcoins are still at the price level of last year's bear market.
Currently, Polymarket predicts that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 this month has risen to 74%, and the total net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $20 billion for the first time last week. In addition, there are many signals in the market indicating that Bitcoin is about to start a new round of upward trend.
However, the crypto market is always unpredictable, and there are still negative factors and bearish views. QCP Capital said that with the US election approaching, the uncertainty in the BTC market has increased. For this reason, Golden Finance has sorted out the recent judgments of various parties on the crypto market and the possible positive and negative factors, so that readers can have a clearer understanding of the crypto trend.
Positive factors
Keywords: interest rate cut, election, increase holdings
Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said the Federal Reserve, which focuses on the labor market, will continue to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve is now focusing on the "mixed" labor market. The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in November, but policymakers are treading carefully because inflation is no longer cooling rapidly.
On October 17, Polymarket data showed that Trump's probability of winning the US presidential election rose to 61.3%, a record high.
10x Research said that MicroStrategy's stock price may continue to rise, which is expected to drive up the price of Bitcoin. In the past week, the stock rose 16%, and its market value reached $43 billion, a record high. In addition, strong bond demand may prompt MicroStrategy to raise more funds to buy Bitcoin. He said that the strategy of borrowing money to buy coins is reasonable, and the rise in stock prices may form a positive feedback loop, further pushing up the price of Bitcoin.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the surge in stablecoin and Bitcoin transactions may provide a basis for BTC to rise in the coming weeks. Stablecoin liquidity continued to grow to a record high of $169 billion at the end of September, up 31% year-to-date (YTD). Tether's USDT remains dominant, with its market value increasing by $28 billion to nearly $120 billion, accounting for 71% of the market share.
Goldman Sachs Trading Department: The S&P 500 is expected to rise to 6,270 points by the end of the year. According to data from 1928, the median historical return of the S&P 500 between October 15 and December 31 was 5.17%. In election years, the median return was even slightly higher than 7%, which means that the year-end level could reach 6,270 points.
K33 analyst: Bitcoin futures premium climbed to a 5-month high, and current institutional preferences indicate they are increasing their long positions.
CryptoQuant analysts said that the monthly growth rate of Bitcoin demand was the highest since April, and Bitcoin demand appears to be recovering.
a16z crypto report: Cryptocurrency active addresses and usage hit record highs. As of September, there were approximately 617 million cryptocurrency holders worldwide, with 60 million monthly active users. In 2024, monthly active crypto addresses will rise to over 220 million, with Base topping the Ethereum EVM chain with 22 million addresses, while Solana dominates the non-EVM chain with over 100 million addresses. This year also saw the largest number of mobile wallet users, with the United States accounting for 12% of global users.
On October 17, total net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $20 billion for the first time.
Matrixport: Mining stocks are underperforming, and Bitcoin spot ETFs may become the best investment strategy. MicroStrategy has significantly outperformed other crypto assets with its strategy of borrowing to buy Bitcoin. This positive trend may continue to provide support for Bitcoin prices.
South Korea may soon allow Bitcoin spot ETFs, with the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) taking important steps to shape the country’s cryptocurrency landscape, including discussions on allowing Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and letting companies open accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Bullish:
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin could reach $73,800 before the U.S. presidential election in November, a 12% increase from current levels.
NYDIG: Bitcoin's performance is exactly the same as the previous two cycles, and Q4 may be the best performing quarter.
Analyst: Bitcoin has strong upward momentum and is expected to break through $70,000 in a few weeks
Glassnode: Bitcoin's recent decline is relatively mild, consistent with historical bull market patterns
Jonathan de Wet, chief investment officer at Zerocap, said in an investor note that Bitcoin's upward momentum remains strong and is expected to break through $70,000 within a few weeks, noting that technical breakthroughs provide a solid foundation for further gains.
QCP Capital: Crypto asset prices are positively correlated with Trump's chances of winning. In addition, QCP predicts that as global central banks enter a rate cut cycle, market liquidity will increase, driving up risk assets. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, the People's Bank of China continues to maintain an accommodative stance, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and four times in 2025.
Santiment: After BTC broke through $66,000, the market gradually became optimistic. Traders are looking for opportunities in the GameFi and Memecoin fields, and the discussion rate between these altcoin sectors shows a continued increase in interest levels.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin has upside potential amid falling U.S. Treasury yields and rising gold. With 13-week Treasury yields falling and gold up nearly 5%, Bitcoin could also benefit from this trend.
Top trader Eugene: Stop shorting and turn bullish. Short positions have been closed, and Bitcoin's open interest has disappeared as the price of BTC has risen, so it has flipped to long.
Victory Securities: Bitcoin's slow rise is waiting for the spillover effect. The weak balance in the market is broken, short-term holders are gradually increasing their holdings, and the recovery phase may begin.
10T Holdings founder: US election results will not prevent Bitcoin from reaching $100,000.
21Shares analysts: CPI data will have a "favorable impact" on Bitcoin prices because borrowing costs will be lower. We expect market flows to recover after recent geopolitical tensions disrupted the financial landscape. "
DWF Labs Partner: The crypto market is recovering, no need to worry.
Negative factors and bearish views
Keywords: sell-off, regulation, geopolitics
On October 16, Arkham Research discovered that Tesla had moved 11,509 bitcoins (worth about $770 million) to new addresses, which appears to be the company's entire bitcoin reserves. These transfers took place in the past hour, and Tesla conducted six test transactions before these tokens were transferred, marking the first time Tesla has interacted with its Bitcoin wallet since Tesla sold most of its assets in 2022.
The company invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in February 2021. It is not clear what the purpose of the transfer was, and some in the community believe the company may be preparing to sell. Tesla will announce its third-quarter financial results after the market closes on October 23.
CryptoQuant CEO said that if Tesla sells Bitcoin, the impact will be slightly more than half of the German government.
The U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal by Battle Born Investments and others over 69,370 bitcoins (worth $4.4 billion) associated with the Silk Road, meaning those bitcoins may soon be auctioned off.
QCP Capital: Geopolitical risks before the US election are the biggest hidden danger at present, especially the conflict between Iran and Israel.
Fed's Kashkari: Bitcoin has been around for more than a decade, but it's still useless.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula continues to escalate. At about 12:00 noon local time on October 15, North Korea blew up sections of the Gyeongui Line and the East Sea Line connecting North and South Korea north of the military demarcation line. Subsequently, the South Korean army fired responsive shots at North Korea.
Trader Peter Brandt: Bitcoin's rally often occurs in the second half of the halving cycle, and the market trend shows potential downside risks. Bitcoin has not reached a new high for 30 consecutive weeks, and similar situations in history usually lead to a price drop of more than 75%. At the same time, he warned that if Bitcoin falls below $48,000, his analysis will become invalid and the market needs to be re-evaluated.
Galaxy: Crypto venture capital has cooled down, with investment in the third quarter down 20% month-on-month and the number of deals down 17%. In the first three quarters of this year, the crypto industry received a total of $8 billion in investment, and investment in 2024 is expected to be slightly higher than in 2023. Compared with the investment scale of more than $30 billion in 2021 and 2022, the current market heat has obviously declined.
Trump economic adviser: potential new government will support a strong dollar, which may limit the rise of cryptocurrencies
IntoTheBlock data showed that the total amount of high-risk loans (defined as loans within 5% of the liquidation price) rose to $55 million on Wednesday, reaching the highest level since June 2022. A loan within 5% of the liquidation price means that if the price of the collateral falls by 5%, it will no longer cover the loan, triggering liquidation.
summary
The current BTC price continues to hit a record high, and the market sentiment is mainly bullish, but most altcoins still have limited gains. Among the major track sectors, Meme coins have the greatest wealth effect, while other narratives are slightly weak. Therefore, the overall bull market in the crypto market may still face huge tests.
