fed

$WLD
THE FED IS INDEED MOVING TOWARDS A RATE HIKE NOW

​Just moments ago, US PPI data was published, registering at 5.4% against an anticipated 5.3%.
​Concurrently, oil has broken above $100, which inevitably exacerbates inflationary pressure

​Conversely, the employment figures remain rather robust, leaving the Fed with precisely one course of action

​Raise rates and curb this inflation

​Should the Fed delay any further, they will be forced into aggressive hikes reminiscent of 2022, which would utterly decimate the markets

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#Fed #USGovernment #Market_Update

LATEST NEWS:

🇺🇸The chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next week jump to 64% after the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in above expectations.

$VTHO $ETHFI $GPRO 👀👀👀👀


#NewsAboutCrypto #Fed #USAugustPPIRisesLessThanExpected #SECApprovesNasdaqTexasCommodityTrustRule #bullish

🇺🇸 CPI WATCH: WILL THE FED HIKE OR HOLD?

The market is now focused on U.S. inflation. With Nonfarm Payrolls beating expectations and CPI becoming the next major macro catalyst, the Fed faces an important decision.

A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the case for keeping monetary policy restrictive for longer. Rising inflation would likely push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, creating pressure on risk assets such as stocks and crypto. In that scenario, I would take a more bearish short-term view.

On the other hand, if CPI comes in softer than expected, markets could start pricing in a more dovish Fed. Lower inflation would reduce pressure on interest rates and could support stocks, gold and crypto.

Personally, I’m staying cautious before the CPI data. I prefer to wait for the actual numbers rather than trade purely on expectations.

📊 My bias: Neutral → Bearish if CPI comes in hot; Bullish if inflation cools significantly.

What’s your call?

🔥 Fed Hike or Hold? Bullish or Bearish?

#CPIWatch #Fed

After the US released the latest PPI data, global financial markets immediately reacted negatively in the face of persistent inflation pressure. US short-term interest rate futures fell, triggering a wave of re-pricing of monetary policy as traders nearly unanimously priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates in October, while the Bank of England (BoE) is also forecast to deliver as many as 4 rate hikes.

These developments suggest that the specter of manufacturing inflation is returning to threaten expectations for monetary easing. Pressure intensified further as Brent crude rose above the $105 per barrel mark, raising concerns about a new global cost-push cycle.

Risk-avoidance sentiment spread rapidly across the entire financial market. Nasdaq index futures fell 1% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%. Notably, the precious metals complex came under heavy selling pressure: gold fell 1.4% to below $4,340 per ounce, and silver plunged by up to 4% to $64.55 per ounce due to expectations of interest rates staying elevated.

For the cryptocurrency market, a tightening macro backdrop and the risk of USD liquidity being withdrawn may pose a short-term barrier to the recovery momentum of $BTC . Crypto investors need to closely monitor ECB Chair Christine Lagarde’s policy press conference and subsequent reactions from bond yields to manage capital-flow risks effectively.

#fed #lam_phat #tai_chinh

The probability of a rate hike changed this morning.

Traders raised the chance of an increase at next week’s Fed meeting to 70%.

This is a major jump in market expectations.

This kind of move often creates noise in assets like $BTC because of sensitivity to liquidity.

What caught your attention most about this data?

#Fed #Cripto #BTC

🔥 HOTTER PPI PUTS BTC UNDER PRESSURE

U.S. producer inflation accelerated sharply in August, with the headline PPI rising 5.4% year over year, up from 4.8% in July and slightly above the 5.3% market expectation. The monthly PPI increased 0.4%, while core measures also remained elevated.

FED HAWKISH BETS RETURN

The hotter inflation picture has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike next week climbing to around 70%, up from roughly 60% earlier in the week. Markets now await Friday’s CPI report as another key signal before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

BTC FEELS THE PRESSURE

Bitcoin slipped toward the $76,000–$77,000 area as Treasury yields climbed. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached around 5.36%, its highest level since 2004, increasing pressure on risk assets.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $166.8 million in combined net outflows across September 8–9, marking a notable pause after weeks of strong inflows.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

The CPI release could determine whether rate-hike expectations strengthen further—or ease enough to give risk assets some breathing room.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Do your own research and trade responsibly.

#Bitcoin #BTC #PPI #Fed #CryptoMarket

$BTC
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$ZEC

🏦 FED WATCH JUST GOT MORE INTERESTING

Markets are now pricing roughly a 70%+ probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike next week.

That's a major shift in expectations.

Why?

🛢️ Higher oil prices
📊 Sticky inflation
📈 Rising Treasury yields
💵 Stronger dollar

For $BTC , this creates a complicated setup.

Lower rates generally support risk assets.

But inflation pressure can force central banks in the opposite direction.

Today's CPI could change the entire picture.

👀 This is one of the most important macro days for crypto.

#BTC #Fed #crypto

#cpiwatch
#CPIWatch 📊

The latest Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations, putting the Federal Reserve in a tricky position as the next CPI report approaches. The big question for markets is simple: Will the Fed hike rates, or hold?

My view: I’m leaning toward HOLD for now. A strong jobs report can support the case for tighter policy, but the Fed still needs to see whether inflation is accelerating sustainably before making another move. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, however, the market could quickly price in a higher probability of a rate hike.

From a trading perspective, I’m watching gold and stocks closely. Hot CPI could pressure risk assets and support the dollar, while a softer inflation print could revive expectations for easier policy and boost equities and gold.

For me, the key is not simply whether CPI beats or misses — it’s how far the number deviates from expectations and what it means for the Fed’s next decision.

Bullish or bearish? I’m staying cautious until CPI gives us a clearer signal.

#CPIWatch #Fed #CPI

English:
Fed about to hike rates? History shows single rate hikes aren't bull market killers. The real danger lies in sustained tightening cycles! Bitcoin and Ethereum might see short-term pressure, but long-term, if inflation is contained, we could actually get a better environment. Remember, markets fear uncertainty most of all!

#Fed #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH

English:
Fed about to hike rates? History shows single rate hikes aren't bull market killers. The real danger lies in sustained tightening cycles! Bitcoin and Ethereum might see short-term pressure, but long-term, if inflation is contained, we could actually get a better environment. Remember, markets fear uncertainty most of all!

#Fed #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH

📊 CPI Watch: Will the Fed Hike or Hold?
The latest Nonfarm Payrolls data came in stronger than expected, adding fresh uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s next move. Now, with the upcoming CPI report just around the corner, the market is watching closely for signs of persistent inflation.
A stronger jobs market can give the Fed more room to keep monetary policy restrictive, but one strong employment report does not automatically mean a rate hike is coming. The CPI data could be the key piece of evidence that determines whether the Fed stays on hold or considers further tightening.
🔥 My View: Cautiously Bullish, but Ready for Volatility
If inflation comes in hotter than expected, I would expect pressure on risk assets and potentially stronger demand for the U.S. dollar. Gold could also experience short-term volatility as traders reassess the rate outlook.
On the other hand, a softer CPI print could strengthen expectations for easier monetary policy and provide support for stocks and gold.
For now, I’m watching CPI, Fed expectations, Treasury yields, and market momentum before making any major decision.
What’s your view? Bullish or Bearish? 📈📉
#CPIWatch #Fed

Will the Fed Hike Rates Again? My Take on #CPIWatch
The latest Nonfarm Payrolls just came in hotter than expected, and with CPI right around the corner, the tension in the market is real. Everyone is asking the same question: Will CPI trigger another rate hike?
Here’s my honest take: I’m leaning slightly bearish in the short term. With the labor market still showing strength, the Fed has enough room to keep rates higher for longer, or at least talk tough. If CPI comes in hot, we could see a nasty knee-jerk reaction in risk assets.
Because of this uncertainty, I’ve been rotating a bit of my portfolio into safety. I’m holding some Gold as a hedge against inflation and potential rate volatility. It’s not my biggest bag, but it helps me sleep at night.
On the crypto side, I’m not over-leveraging right now. I’m keeping my spot bags and waiting for the CPI data to drop before making any big moves. The market hates uncertainty, so I’d rather wait for the dust to settle than get liquidated trying to guess the Fed's next move.
What’s your strategy? Are you bullish and buying the dip, or bearish and waiting it out? Let me know in the comments! 👇

#CPIWatch #Fed #Inflation #trading

After strong nonfarm payroll employment data was released, analysts Brandon Brown recently noted that the market’s interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are still full of uncertainty. With Fed governor Waller having clearly stated that the subsequent inflation data will determine his voting position, ahead of the release of core data, market expectations regarding whether the Fed will adjust rates in September are basically at a 50-50 split.

This development is worth关注 because there is a clear divergence within the Fed regarding the upcoming monetary policy path. Judging by the transmission effects from PPI and CPI to core PCE inflation, a core PCE month-over-month increase of around 0.25% could become the key watershed for whether the Fed chooses to hold steady or take further action. If subsequent inflation readings are mild, the Fed is likely to continue keeping the current benchmark interest rate unchanged.

In macro financial markets, the yield curve reflects the market’s repricing of long-term rates. The cumulative change by mid-2027 is expected to be slightly above 60 basis points. However, analysts also point out that even if economic data continues to stay strong, the pace of actual adjustments in the short term is unlikely to exceed three times, and the overall macro liquidity environment remains relatively balanced amid ongoing back-and-forth.

As for the crypto market, major assets such as $BTC may continue to trade in line with market expectations for macro inflation in the near term. Fluctuations in liquidity expectations will keep market sentiment cautious and on the sidelines. Investors are currently waiting for clearer core PCE and inflation guidance to determine the specific direction of the next phase of the market. 👀

#fed #lạm_phát #crypto

#CPIWatch

The NFP number definitely changed the mood for the Fed. Jobs came in stronger than expected, and now CPI is the next big piece of the puzzle.

Personally, I think the Fed is leaning more toward a hike than a hold right now. The labor market is still showing strength, while inflation is not completely back under control. August CPI is expected to show another monthly increase, so a hot number could make the Fed even more comfortable with a 25 bps hike.

But I’m not completely convinced yet. If CPI comes in softer than expected, the whole rate-hike story could change quickly. That’s why I’m watching core CPI especially closely.

For me, the key question is simple: strong jobs + sticky inflation = hike. Strong jobs + cooling inflation = maybe hold.

Let’s see what CPI brings. 👀

#CPIWatch #Fed #Inflation #NFP

Will CPI make Fed hike rates again? #CPIWatch

Guys NFP data came stronger than expected and now CPI is next.
Honestly this week is going to decide market direction.

For me if CPI is hot then Fed has no choice but to hike again.
I am thinking 70% chance of one more hike.
But if CPI is cool then maybe they finally hold and we get some relief.

Now my view on market:
Short term I am bearish. Rate hike news always hits crypto and stocks first.
But long term I am bullish. Once Fed stops hiking, money will flow back into BTC and tech.

Right now in my portfolio:
Gold 30% - just for safety
Stocks - reduced tech, added some dividend names
Crypto - still DCA in BTC and ETH. Not panic selling

What do you guys think?
CPI ke baad hike hoga ya hold?
And are you bullish or bearish right now?

Drop your opinion below 👇
NFA

#CPIWatch #Fed #Crypto

Following the release of strong non-farm payroll data, analyst Brandon Brown noted that the market is pricing in roughly 15 basis points of Fed rate hike risk for the September meeting, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasizing that upcoming inflation prints will be the ultimate deciding factor for his vote.

This puts market expectations for September in a virtual 50/50 split ahead of key inflation reports. The Fed's policy committee is likely facing internal division, where the pass-through from upcoming PPI and CPI prints into core PCE will be critical—a monthly core PCE reading around 0.25% could serve as the dividing line between holding rates steady and another hike.

Across macro markets, the yield curve reflects projections of just over 60 basis points in cumulative tightening by mid-2027. However, even under resilient economic data, short-term hikes are unlikely to exceed three rounds, keeping long-term yields elevated and capping significant downside in the US dollar.

For crypto, this macro uncertainty keeps liquidity constrained in the short term. As long as the Fed's terminal rate trajectory remains clouded by upcoming inflation prints, $BTC and broader digital assets may experience choppy, range-bound price action until a clear policy direction emerges.

#fed #inflation #macro

After a recent non-farm payrolls (NFP) report that beat expectations, analyst Brandon Brown has just offered a notable assessment of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path ahead of the September meeting. This comes in the context of Fed Governor Christopher Waller stressing that upcoming inflation data will be the deciding factor in his vote, leading the market to price in a tightening of roughly 15 basis points.

The key point is that expectations for rate hikes in September are currently split 50/50, creating a major divide within the Fed’s policy committee. The pass-through effect from CPI and PPI to core PCE will be a critical measure; if core PCE rises around the 0.25% mark, the policy balance may tilt decisively toward holding rates steady rather than continuing to tighten.

This tug-of-war is making U.S. government bond yields move in an unpredictable way, while also reinforcing the short-term strength of the U.S. dollar. Even though the yield curve is pricing in more than a 60-basis-point increase through mid-2027, the room for additional short-term rate hikes is almost impossible to exceed three times, leaving traditional financial investors extremely cautious.

For the crypto market, Fed uncertainty is dampening large inflows into $BTC and risk assets. Short-term liquidity tends to cluster tighter, causing the market to trade within narrow ranges until the PCE inflation outlook is released clearly enough to establish the next trend. 📊

#Fed #lam_phat #crypto

In today’s European trading session, analyst Giulia Petroni noted that gold prices could post a decline of more than 2% this week, as New York gold futures fell 0.5% to USD 4,383.90/ounce. Selling pressure emerged amid a surge in oil prices, persistently high bond yields, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continuing to push energy costs higher.

This move becomes especially significant as strong U.S. producer price data for August has heightened concerns about a return of inflation. The market is now fully focused on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due out Friday night. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates next week has now jumped to 67%, reversing much of the earlier easing sentiment.

The shift in monetary policy expectations is supporting the USD and Treasury yields, putting direct pressure on non-yielding assets such as precious metals. As the opportunity cost of holding them rises, short-term hedging flows tend to pull out of the gold market and seek shelter in higher-yielding instruments.

For the crypto market, pressure from expectations of a Fed rate hike and caution ahead of the CPI data could cause new capital inflows to $BTC slow down. Investors should prepare for scenarios of strong volatility over the weekend, when actual inflation figures will determine the next direction of global liquidity.

#fed #vàng #inflation

🇺🇸 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S. MACRO 🔊🔉

🚨 CPI DAY. Crypto traders, stay alert.

Today’s calendar could trigger major volatility across BTC, ETH, altcoins, USD and Treasury yields.

⏰ 8:00 AM ET — 🛒 Kroger Earnings
⏰ 8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 August CPI + Real Earnings
⏰ 10:00 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment
⏰ 10:00 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations
⏰ 12:00 PM ET — 🏦 Fed Financial Accounts (Z.1)

🔥 CPI IS THE MAIN EVENT

Yesterday’s PPI showed producer prices rising 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, keeping inflation concerns elevated. (Bureau of Labor Statistics⁠)

Consensus for August CPI is around 3.4% YoY, with core CPI near 2.4% YoY. (Reuters⁠)

The reaction map:

📈 Hot CPI → Yields ↑ → USD ↑ → Fed hike bets ↑ → BTC/crypto risk ↓

📉 Cool CPI → Yields ↓ → USD ↓ → Fed pressure ↓ → BTC/crypto risk ↑

⚠️ But watch core CPI, not just headline inflation. Oil can push headline CPI higher while the core reading tells us whether inflation is spreading.

🛢️ OIL = THE WILDCARD

Brent has remained above $100, while geopolitical tensions continue to pressure energy markets. Higher oil prices can feed into transportation, goods and services inflation. (Reuters⁠)

🏦 FED WATCH

The September 15–16 FOMC meeting is now extremely sensitive to incoming inflation data. Markets have been increasingly pricing a potential 25 bps hike. (Reuters⁠)

💡 MY TRADER CHECKLIST

CPI → Core CPI → Treasury yields → DXY → BTC reaction → Altcoin reaction.

Don’t trade the headline alone.

The real signal is whether yields confirm the CPI move.

👀 What are you expecting today?

🔥 HOT CPI
❄️ COOL CPI
🎯 IN-LINE CPI

#CPI #Fed #CPIWatch $BTC

$WLD
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave a proper hawkish Jackson Hole speech, sayin’ financial conditions are "hard pressed" to be called restrictive, innit?

That sent September rate hike odds jumpin' from 35% to 57.5% almost instantly, and yields spiked right back up again

​Today, the Treasury tripled its buyback to $6 billion. Yields are now back above where they were before the first intervention, simple as

​Japan’s already livin’ through this, mate, Its 2-year and 5-year yields just hit 31-year highs, and its 10-year and 20-year yields are at their highest since 1995, even though the government keeps stepped in time and again to try and control both its currency and bond market

​Over in the US, the real pressure under the hood is heavy Treasury issuance, inflation that just won't cool off, and a Fed chair who keeps dropped hints about more hikes

​Nothin' of that's changed. The buybacks are only gettin’ bigger: double, then "at least double," then triple—and yields just keep on climbin' regardless

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#KevinWarshDisclosedCryptoInvestments #Fed #USGovernment