The most dangerous thing about BTC isn’t falling to $63,000—it’s that every rebound is weaker than the last
BTC is currently around $63,000. This week, it has dropped from about $65,000 to around $62,500. What’s even more concerning is that even as U.S. inflation data shows marginal improvement, BTC still hasn’t managed to reclaim and hold above $64,000.
This suggests that what’s suppressing the market right now isn’t just macro factors, but a lack of buy-side strength. Flows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs have recently remained outflowing. Even after macro tailwinds appear, the price hasn’t shown follow-through—“can’t move on good news” is itself a bearish signal.
On the technical side, I’m paying more attention to $63,300—$64,000:
As long as the 1H timeframe can’t effectively reclaim this zone, and the rebound highs continue to move lower, the short-term action should still be defined as a corrective bounce within a descending structure—not a reversal.
Below that, the key levels to watch are:
A break below $62,000 → $61,000
A break below $61,000 → $60,000 psychological level
But I don’t think it’s the right time to blindly chase shorts.
My baseline outlook is still somewhat optimistic: around $60,000 is very likely to become the real battleground between bulls and bears. Therefore, instead of trying to bottom-fish all at once, I prefer to test longs with a smaller position on the left side, and place additional orders in batches during the pullback—saving the real add-on for confirmation signals such as “reclaiming $64,000 + improving volume + better ETF flows.”
What’s most tormenting right now isn’t the crash—it’s the repeated illusion that “it’s already fallen enough.”
The real bottom isn’t when it can’t fall anymore, but when, after the drop is over, it finally has the power to rise.
Do you think this BTC cycle will hold $60,000, or does the market need one more, more thorough leverage unwind?
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