๐จ Is BTC Hitting 51K or a Bounce First? ๐ฉธ๐ณ
๐ Keep an eye on this because this image is comparing the drop from early 2025 with the current structure, and to be honest, the chart looks quite similar.
๐ What it shows:
โ
#bulltrap in both cases.
โ
Loss of the support zone.
โ
Liquidity sweep below the range.
โ
Theoretical target near 51k.
But be careful, the market never exactly copies the past ๐
๐ฅ What I see with the current data:
๐ฉธ Over $2B in recent liquidations.
๐ฉธ
#fearandgreedindex in extreme fear.
๐ฉธ Excessive short positions stacked up top.
๐ฉธ Large liquidity between 70k and 75k.
๐ฉธ Visible buy zones between 60k and 64k.
๐ณ What many arenโt seeing:
Right now there are WAY more
#short s than a few weeks ago.
And when the market leans too much to one side,
$BTC tends to punish the majority.
๐ Historically, Bitcoin rarely drops in a straight line.
Even in strong bear markets, violent bounces of 10% to 25% usually appear.
So, while the 51k scenario is possible, I wouldnโt be surprised to see a rise first towards:
๐ 70k ๐ 72k ๐ even 75k.
Just to liquidate shorts before continuing to hunt for liquidity lower ๐ฉธ
๐ My most likely scenario today:
1๏ธโฃ Strong technical bounce somewhere between 64k and 68k.
2๏ธโฃ Attempt to recover towards 70k-75k.
3๏ธโฃ After that, the market decides whether it has real strength or continues towards:
๐ฏ 60k ๐ฏ 57k ๐ฏ 51k.
๐ฅ If you ask me for an approximate probability based on historical BTC cycles:
๐ Significant bounce before 51k โ 65%-70%.
๐ Direct drop to 51k without a relevant bounce โ 30%-35%.
๐ณ The truly dangerous scenario would be a strong loss of the 60k zone.
If that happens, the 51k scenario would start to look much more real and targets in the 47k-48k zone youโve been mentioning would appear.
๐ฅ The question is:
๐ณ Will they go for the accumulated shorts at 70k-75k first or continue hunting longs down to the 60k-57k zone? ๐ฉธ๐๐