$PEPE Everyone should have made a lot of money! This list was published in December. At that time, the spot currencies in it should have risen a lot. Now I have updated a new list of copycats for your reference:

1.$SOL sol: Still this powerful guy

2.$ETH eth: The long-awaited explosion has finally come. The current contract has a large amount of open positions. You can wait to enter after the leverage is killed

3.jup: The most explosive token I have seen in the sol ecosystem

4.near/rndr: The two most stable and powerful old players in the ai track

5.pepe: If it stands firm, it can usher in a new round of explosion, maybe the meme season of the bull tail

6.floki: As worth looking forward to as pepe

7.arkm: The most optimistic ai new coin at present

8.Pendle: All aspects of data have been very good, and the trend is also very stable

Hahaha, do you all understand?

May 24 Digital Currency Dynamics Summary
1. SEC approves key documents for spot Ethereum ETF, and it may take several weeks for the official listing.
2. The approval of the spot Ethereum ETF is decided by the voting of the US SEC's Trading and Markets Division, not the SEC Chairman and other four members. 3. Galaxy Digital: It is expected that the Ethereum spot ETF will be listed on the exchange in July or August.
4. Biden's deadline for making a final decision on the resolution to repeal SAB 121 has been extended to June 3.
5. Analysis: The US SEC's ETF decision means that ETH and "many" other tokens are not securities.
6. Consensys: The approval of the Ethereum spot ETF shows that the US SEC believes that Ethereum is a commodity.
7. HashKey analyst: Ethereum spot ETF is expected to join the pledge mechanism, and the market size is expected to reach 75% of the Bitcoin spot ETF.
8. Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 1.48% to 84.38 T. 9. US Bitcoin spot ETF already holds over 850,000 Bitcoins 10. US House of Representatives votes to ban the Fed from issuing CBDC
11. US SEC Chairman: SEC has legal tools for cryptocurrencies, but needs more resources.
12. Fed survey: An estimated 18 million Americans used or owned cryptocurrencies last year.
#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准
#BTC走势分析

Let me briefly talk about my subsequent views on pepe:

This wave of expectations comes from ETH ETF, and the ETH ecosystem has indeed been touched, but everyone should not forget a basic fact, that is, there is still no strong narrative sector in the last round to attract deposited funds

Once there is no narrative relay, then meme is the best narrative, because the market has no new carrier, and meme, a pure value consensus model, is forced to become a liquidity carrier

Pepe's value prediction:

I think 10 billion US dollars is definitely no problem. The current market value of pepe is 5.9 billion US dollars. In fact, there is not much room for growth. Compare doge and shib

Doge market value: 23.9 billion
Shib market value: 14.9 billion
Pepe market value: 5.9 billion

But I will probably sell half of my positions below 10 billion market value

The remaining half of the position will be held until a new relay narrative appears in the currency circle, otherwise Pepe is still the best target

As for other meme coins, except for doge, shib, and pepe, the memes of other chains, at present, only the memes of the sol chain still have a chance, because the sol chain has accumulated a lot of profitable funds and the water is relatively sufficient

In addition, I think any meme is not worth investing in, it is only suitable for pvp, the position cannot be raised, and the main focus is entertainment

#MemeWatch2024
#PEPE创历史新高

ETH spot ETF approval, several possibilities in the early morning

1
19b-4 passed, S-1/S-3 failed.

2
19b-4 passed, S-1/S-3 passed.

3
19b-4 passed, S-1 passed, S-3 failed.

4
19b-4 passed, S-1 failed, S-3 passed.

5
19b-4 failed.

#以太坊ETF批准预期

The US election is approaching, and presidential candidates need the support of new-age voters. There are already many cryptocurrency holders, and they will need the votes of these people.
So the meme coin track should be focused on next.

The memes that Americans can play, or the coins $PEPE $PEOPLE that many Americans have accepted and held, all meet these two conditions

#PEPE创历史新高
#美众议院通过FIT21法案

VC OTC selling coins is actually a good thing for the project party and other participants.

Many projects VC have low-cost chips, which are also accompanied by a long lock-up period. Many people think that it is a bad thing for VC to sell chips. What will happen if they cash out and run away from the project?

From the perspective of chip game, OTC selling means that the overall holding cost of early chips has increased, and the unlocking period of the sold coins has not changed. If the price is not good during the unlocking period, the taker will be more reluctant to sell the high-priced chips, which is a good thing for other game participants. The more frequent the turnover, the higher the holding cost.

From the perspective of VC post-investment, it is unlikely to expect VC to help pull the price of the project after it goes online. After all, everyone has to be responsible to LP, and at most provide an understanding of the market and past experience for the project party to refer to. Another interesting point is that the price of the shares to be unlocked is not high now, and 30% off is the norm. If the decision to sell Saft is really made, and then the coin price rises, it will be more uncomfortable than everyone else, and even LP will be held accountable. This is different from 2021. At that time, projects had a lot of volume and lacked pricing, so as long as they could be listed on any exchange, they could sell SAFT to make money. Now there are only a few projects with trading volume that can be sold OTC, and the prices have been fully negotiated. From the perspective of post-investment, it is difficult to operate.

Everyone assumes that the price of the project will plummet when the bull market ends, which means that most new projects are unreasonable under the existing valuation system, but the bull market is still going on. Before the unlocking period is over, the price of the currency is determined by everyone's expectations for the exchange IEO (opening) + the value of the project party's work + the market maker's judgment on the market, which has nothing to do with VC. I once thought that Tia of 10B was too expensive, and there were even rumors that Tia's early investors sold all SAFTs at 2B before the launch, but it finally reached 20B. The rise and fall of most projects really has nothing to do with VC~

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#BTC突破7万大关
#山寨币热点

Ethereum takes over Bitcoin, everything is in the script

Finance is essentially the establishment and collapse of consensus.
In this round of games, one party takes advantage of various weaknesses of human nature to complete the transfer of wealth in the K-line.
The Bitcoin circle is more barbaric, more essential, and the harvesting speed is faster.
Of course, you are the chosen one, and here, the opportunities for rising class are far more than outside.

In my opinion, the logic of the operation of the Ethereum dog dealer is reviewed:
1. First, borrow ether and smash the market through the exchange, which can be clearly seen on the chain.
2. Continue to suppress the ETH/BTC exchange rate, causing large investors who are long on the exchange rate to liquidate or reduce their positions, and at the same time trigger panic selling of ether by small retail investors, and the exchange rate is further suppressed.
3. Cooperate with the FUD that the Ethereum ETF will be rejected to continue to suppress the exchange rate and absorb ether at a low price.
4. Absorb enough chips before the lowest point of the exchange rate near May 23.
5. Around May 23, whether the ETF is delayed or passed, you can start to sing long ether and its younger brothers.
6. The leeks were surprised to hear that the alt season is back, and then only their own ether is gone.
The most interesting thing is that many people were suppressed by this round of ether, and turned to think that Ethereum is garbage, has no future, and cannot be touched.

Back to the overall environment, yesterday, the black swan on the side of Yilang had already appeared, and it is very likely that there will be a double interest rate hike. I personally think that such a chaotic and bad fundamentals will lead to an abnormally violent and fast movement if there is a bull or alt season. The dog dealer needs to distribute the chips quickly, otherwise the big negative black swan of the fundamentals will make the process uncontrollable. Let the bullets fly for a while, and we will wait and see.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#BTC突破7万大关
#ETH

Let's review what's going on with this surge now

Direct cause:
The US SEC's attitude towards the#EthereumETF on May 23rd is more favorable than expected

On Monday, an issuer of a#EthereumETF was required to update its 19b-4 filing documents. The market quickly turned from very pessimistic to very optimistic about whether the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved on May 23rd.

Root cause:
The US election on November 4, 2024, Biden is under great campaign pressure

After Trump took the lead in announcing that he was friendly to cryptocurrencies some time ago, Trump's winning rate quickly rose from 10 points ahead of Biden to 13 points.

So the underlying logic is that under this competitive pressure, the Biden administration may be seeking to win the support of the crypto industry (including votes and campaign funds) from Trump
(See the latest odds of Trump and Biden winning in the figure, roughly calculated that Trump leads Biden by 13%)

Subsequent Outlook:
1. Under the pressure of the election, the two strong contenders for the November 4, 2024 election may gradually change their attitudes towards cryptocurrencies to see who can be the most friendly to this industry within a reasonable range to win the money and votes of people in the currency circle

Subsequent observation points:
Look at the progress of the S-1 document in recent days and the final approval result of the spot ETF on Wednesday, US time.

If it passes, the penetration rate of US dollar liquidity to Ethereum will increase rapidly under this channel, and the previous judgment that there will be no big market in Q2 will be broken by this unexpected macro-good news

If it does not pass, then the wave will probably fall back as it rose

So after comprehensive analysis, I think it is the best operation to not operate now, otherwise it is pure gambling

Conclusion:
The brothers in the currency circle have a little bit of a head start. The two parties never took the people in the currency circle seriously before, especially after FTX went bankrupt in 2022

But now there is a sudden turn of events, and the two parties are actually competing to please the people in the currency circle for the election

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#ETH

Friedcat, a genius from USTC, who owns 1.2 million BTC, mysteriously disappeared

1 Friedcat enters the circle

In 2011, Friedcat (formerly known as Jiang Xinyu) studied for a doctorate in computer systems at Yale University in the United States. He first learned about Bitcoin from his USTC classmate Fan Dawei. In early 2012, he registered an ID with the name "friedcat" and became active in the Bitcoin community

2 Partners: Wu Jihan and Crazy Xiaoqiang

In July 2012, Friedcat designed an ASIC mining machine, raised 1 million yuan through ICO, and brought in two partners: Wu Jihan and Crazy Xiaoqiang. Like all entrepreneurial plots, these two people will have a fierce battle with FriedCat in the future

3 The world's martial arts, only speed can not be broken-FriedCat ASIC mining machine

The ASIC mining machine designed by FriedCat is unique in the martial arts world, crushing the American Butterfly Laboratory and Pumpkin Zhang's Avalon mining machine

In April 2013, the FriedCat mining farm was officially established, accounting for 42% of the total network computing power

In May, the peak computing power of the FriedCat mining farm reached 47T, triggering a panic of 51% computing power attack in the community. In July, this mine could mine nearly 40,000 bitcoins every month

4 Crazy wealth myth

In July 2013, the stock price of the FriedCat mining farm rose from 0.1 to 5 bitcoins, and 140,000 BTC was distributed to shareholders. The total market value of the company was 2 million BTC, and FriedCat held 59% of the shares

On November 29, the price of Bitcoin rose to its highest level in history: $1,242. On the same day, an ounce of gold was $1,241.98

Ok and Huobi were established, and BTCChina's trading volume exceeded 80,000 bitcoins, accounting for 43% of the world's total trading volume

5 Mining that is rolled into a twist

At the end of 2013, the wealth effect of mining made a bunch of people rush in frantically. Wu Jihan left and founded Antminer, and adopted 55nm and 28nm technology. Competitors Avalon and Ant S5 were shipped crazily.

The baked cat mining machine was seriously unsalable, and the company's finances were tight. The more you licked him, the more fierce you scold him now.

6 Summary of baked cat-mine owner Lin Qingxin

In order to save the company's crisis, baked cat cooperated with mine owner Lin Qingxin and invested 6,000 mining machines. At the beginning of 2015, due to the quality problem of mining machine packaging, the mine exploded and 70 million was gone. Lin Qingxin sent people to surround FriedCat who went to negotiate, and the mining account was controlled

On January 26, 2015, FriedCat logged into the bitcointalk forum for the last time, and then no one could contact him anymore...

7 Baked Cat's wallet

Baked Cat's three exposed Bitcoin addresses:

15h6A2a3D31vRviBDdSpvhLtYJq3aePhdW

1HgTJED7XEGy4vVwKa8kgefWqUB3VRX2mW

1BnkEt2ceoVhnQVrqeAzigcroQ6MVyxFey
In August 2017, Baked Cat's two wallet accounts were detected, and 17,597 BTC were transferred out in 5 transactions, which is also the evidence that some people insist that Baked Cat is not dead.

8 The ending of Friedcat

Friedcat’s wife Wang Xian got married in Shenzhen in October 2014. Friedcat disappeared three months later. In October 2015, Wang Xian filed for divorce in court, which was later approved by the Hefei Court. As for whether Wang Xian had touched Friedcat’s bitcoin property, there is no evidence

There were many reports of Friedcat’s comeback, but nothing happened

Friedcat, like China’s golden years of mining and dominating the cryptocurrency circle, has become a thing of the past...

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#山寨币热点

Let me talk about the investment logic of this round of bull market that I have been thinking about recently

1. The core of no "copycat season" is: no external funds enter the chain, and there are not too many incremental wallet address users. It is impossible to take over the existing funds and the existing disks alone.

2. Why can't the existing funds and the existing disks take over?

First, the diversion of funds. A large number of pledged games lock liquidity. The clear rise of BTC brought by BTC ETF also took away part of the existing liquidity; and the rapid rise of SOL is mainly directly brought by North American venture capital, which belongs to external funds;

Secondly, in the case of insufficient existing liquidity, the valuation of projects listed on Binance is so high that retail investors panic and can't take over.

So why does Binance want to list these expensive projects?

First of all, these expensive projects are at least of the upper level in overall quality, but the valuation pricing is raised by the primary market.

But on the other hand, think about it, the reason why these expensive projects are expensive is not because they are held high by North American funds? Asian funds calculate returns for LPs carefully, will they do this? But Binance cannot ignore the interests of North American funds, otherwise it will be collectively isolated by North American funds, and the currency circle will only become more and more fragmented.

The current solution is: first, we still need to explore more projects that can bring new scenarios of on-chain users, which is the "essence". This is difficult and the probability of success is very low, but we must try. In 2021, there were NFT and Axie, and in 2022, there was StepN, which was enough, and new leeks came. I am still optimistic about whether the combination of consumer electronics iOT and crypto incentive can bring some changes, especially after AI develops to GPT 4o, a lot of imagination space has indeed opened up, and there is the possibility of interactive transformation.

Second, Binance launched trading sections with different valuation levels, similar to the main board, the GEM, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. Retail investors bear their own risks and reduce investors' expectations of making money through stratification. To put it bluntly, complaining is because expectations do not match reality, which is a matter of expectation management. For example, many retail investors play memes with a valuation of 1 million US dollars, and no one blames the pump when they lose money. Will there be fewer people who lose money playing this kind of relay game? ?

#BTC
#ETH
#以太坊ETF批准预期

From the end of last year to now. From mid-March to April, the overall market began to decline and fall sharply. Many opinions have emerged in the market:

Bull market that does not accept each other, VC coins are useless, do not buy VC coins, and meme that does not accept each other.

I think these are results, not causes. These concepts should not be used in future market operation strategies. These are like "speculating on new but not old", "I have three things I don't buy..."

I think the real "cause" behind it is still the uniqueness of liquidity and capital flow in this round of market, which is completely different from the past. It's like inserting a mutant code into an originally normal DNA.

The trajectory of financial liquidity is different from any time in history and is not comparable. "Bull market that does not accept each other, VC coins are useless, do not buy VC coins, and meme that does not accept each other." These are firstly the results of observation, and secondly, they are considered as a consideration of short-term emotions and market reflexivity.

In the long run, people will forget these, and they don't work. What really matters is the rules behind things.

The law of cause and effect is one of the most important laws in the world.

What is the cause and what is the effect, don't get it mixed up.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#ETH

Value coins just found a so-called legitimate reason to indirectly harvest you. I will not buy all value coins. I will sell them after I have plundered them, unless the cost is the same as the seed round or VC. Generally, you can see the cost of VC and seed in tokenomic. If it is a project that you can't find the unlocking cycle and institutional cost after searching for a long time, it means that his original intention is to 🈹 you and he doesn't want you to find it.

Remember one sentence, don't buy coins whose VC cost is lower than yours. We are all in the underworld. Why should the cost of buying coins be higher than your VC?

I can accept pvp. If P loses, the money goes into the pockets of my girlfriends. My group friends continue to PK with me at the gambling table. He continues to eat Crazy Thursday and PK with me with happy beans. I can't lose to VC. If VC wins, he will go to the yacht model. The funds in the market will directly deflate. Indirectly causing panic fault of off-site funds

Don't take over. Only buy the biggest meme pie or meme taken over by the pure CTO community in the secondary market. Don't touch the rest.

#MemeWatch2024

Commemorating 519

Still remember the bloody storm that night
580,000 people, their accounts were reduced to zero in an instant
6.9 billion US dollars, disappeared in the blink of an eye
Looking back, the past is like a dream~

I hope that you who see this post will never experience such a catastrophe again~
Those who like it, their wealth will grow steadily!

#BTC走势分析

Many people talk about the BTC/ETH exchange rate, and think that Ethereum is seriously undervalued at the moment.
My view is different from most people.

​The so-called exchange rate K-line is just a trend in the past, which cannot explain anything.
​Bitcoin will always go up, and there is no ceiling. ETH may not be, right?
​Can you guarantee that Ethereum will always have innovation? Why is it tied to Bitcoin?
​Look at the gap between gold and silver, which is getting bigger and bigger. The same is true for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
​Bitcoin is a rigid currency, but Ethereum is not. It is only a matter of time before it falls behind. The gap will get bigger and bigger in the future.
​So many people don’t understand Bitcoin or Ethereum.
​Look at why MicroStrategy doesn’t buy Ethereum,
Look at why Sihai doesn’t buy Ethereum, and why don’t many large institutions buy Ethereum?
​Those who really understand Bitcoin will not allocate too much Ethereum.
​They are not the same thing in essence, and the gap is too big.
​If there are some popular applications or ecosystems on Ethereum recently, it will definitely surge. If not, it will be difficult and continue to decline. There must be a logic for the rise.
​Ripple used to be the second, right? It has been selling coins and has fallen behind. The Ethereum Foundation also often sells coins and has fallen behind now.

#机构积极投资比特币ETF
#芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易
#ETH

Reference for buying altcoins:
1. Give priority to fully circulated altcoins, such as meme coins and inscriptions, which are all fully circulated. The advantage is that the market chip cost of such altcoins that have experienced consolidation is more transparent;
2. Prioritize altcoins listed on Binance EUR, because liquidity is always the first priority;
3. Give priority to the leading coins in the hottest tracks in the market. For example, after recording a basket of altcoins for 3 months, it is obvious that the performance of the solana system is better;
4. The best market value ranking is between 100-300;
5. The market value ranking is much lower than the daily transaction ranking of the corresponding target, for example, the market value ranking is 100, while the transaction ranking is 50.
#山寨币热点
#Meme币你看好哪一个？