Price Analysis 2/26: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE
Bitcoin (BTC) soared to a two-year high near $55,000 on Feb. 26, buoyed by the continued demand from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. CoinShares data shows that institutional investors pumped $570 million into Bitcoin investment products over the past seven days.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of more than $5 billion in net assets under management (AUM) since their launch, while gold ETFs have seen outflows of $3.6 billion during the same period, according to a Feb. 26 research report shared on X by senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas and associate analyst Andre Yapp. The analysts expect Bitcoin ETFs AUM to overtake that of gold ETFs in the next two years.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Bitcoin’s strength is likely to uplift the mood in the crypto space, benefitting select altcoins. However, as Bitcoin approaches its all-time high, the risk of a pullback can not be ruled out as the bears try to make one last-ditch attempt to stop the rally.
Could the Bitcoin bulls maintain the breakout, or will higher levels tempt short-term traders to book profits? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index skyrocketed above the 5,048 resistance on Feb. 22, indicating the resumption of the uptrend.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
Although the upsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to buyers, the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the uptrend may be losing steam.
The 20-day exponential moving average (4,983) remains the crucial level to watch out for on the downside. If this support cracks, the index may descend to the 50-day simple moving average (4,857).
Instead, if the index continues higher, it will invalidate the negative divergence. The failure of a negative pattern generally results in a sharp up move. The index could then rise to 5,200.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
The bears yanked the U.S.Dollar Index (DXY) below the 20-day EMA (103) on Feb. 22, but the long tail on the candlestick shows aggressive buying at the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price rises and sustains above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to drive the index above 105. If they do that, the rally could reach 107.
On the other hand, if the price continues lower from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are trying to make a comeback. The index could then slide to the 50-day SMA (103). A bounce off this level could keep the index inside a range for some time.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin broke above the $53,000 overhead resistance on Feb. 26 after consolidating in a tight range for the past several days. This suggests that bulls remain in control.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers sustain the price above $53,000, the BTC/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum and soar toward $60,000 where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense.
There are several layers of support on the downside. If $50,500 breaks down, the bulls will try to arrest the decline at the 20-day EMA ($50,075) and then the breakout level of $48,970. The bears will have to tug the price below $48,970 to indicate the start of a deeper correction to the 50-day SMA ($45,734).
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) surged above the $3,036 resistance on Feb. 25, signaling the start of the next leg of the uptrend.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping moving averages indicate that bulls are in command, but the overbought zone on the RSI suggests a minor correction or consolidation is possible. If buyers do not allow the price to sustain below $3,000, the likelihood of a rally to $3,300 and then to $3,540 increases.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA ($2,823). That will indicate aggressive profit booking by the traders. The ETH/USDT pair could then plunge to $2,717 and subsequently to the 50-day SMA ($2,546).
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) is trying to resume its uptrend, but the overbought level on the RSI suggests that the bears may pose a strong challenge near the overhead resistance at $400.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the current level but rebounds off the 20-day EMA ($356), it will suggest that the sentiment remains bullish. That will enhance the prospects of a break above $400. The BNB/USDT pair may then rally to $460.
Contrarily, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are aggressively booking profits. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($323). A break below this level will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been trading near the moving averages for the past few days, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a possible range-bound action in the near term. The boundaries of the range could be $0.48 on the downside and $0.58 on the upside.
Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above $0.58 to indicate that the correction may be over. The XRP/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.67 and eventually to $0.74. The support on the downside is at $0.48 and then $0.46.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) is finding support at the 50-day SMA ($100), indicating that the bulls are trying to arrest the decline.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a range-bound action in the near term. Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the downtrend line to start a rally to the overhead resistance zone between $119 and $127. If this zone is surmounted, the up move may reach $135.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bears are selling on rallies. The SOL/USDT pair could then plummet to $80.
Cardano price analysis
The bulls managed to protect the 20-day EMA ($0.58) in Cardano (ADA), indicating that the sentiment remains positive.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The gradually rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory show that the bulls have a slight edge. Buyers will try to kick the price to the overhead resistance zone between $0.64 and $0.68.
Contrary to this assumption, if the ADA/USDT pair turns down sharply and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls have given up. That could start a correction to the 50-day SMA ($0.54).
Avalanche price analysis
Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($36.12) on Feb. 24, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the buyers or the sellers. If the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA, the AVAX/USDT pair could descend to $32.
Alternatively, a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($37.84) could open the doors for a possible rally to the overhead resistance of $42. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to signal the completion of an inverse H&S pattern.
Dogecoin price analysis
The bulls successfully defended the breakout level from the triangle but failed to propel Dogecoin (DOGE) above the $0.09 overhead resistance.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This indicates a lack of demand at higher levels. The bears will try to gain the upper hand by pulling the price below the moving averages.
If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to the uptrend line. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail in their endeavor, the pair could start a downward move to $0.07.
The bulls will have to drive and maintain the price above $0.09 to indicate the start of a new up move. The pair could surge to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone, where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.