Ghost Quinn Notes

#美联储利率决议即将公布

🚀$SPCX From the IPO pricing of $135 to now above $200, the market cap has soared to a whopping $2.6 trillion. At this level, investors aren't just buying current profits; they are banking on the future narratives of Starlink, Starship, defense contracts, xAI, Cursor, and even space data centers.

The narrative is massive, and the valuation is stretched.

Right now, SpaceX's short-term strength is driven by several factors:

① Initial circulating supply is quite low
② Strong demand at IPO
③ Hot options trading
④ Anticipation of inclusion in the Nasdaq-100
⑤ Musk's narrative naturally attracts attention

So it can continue to be strong in the short term, possibly even rally higher.

However, starting from late July / August, the logic will gradually shift.

What we've seen is a "buying frenzy" phase, but it will transition into a "earnings verification + unlocked supply" phase.

The period from September to December will see a more intense window of ordinary lock-up shares being released.
By the first half of 2027, we will also face psychological milestones related to longer lock-ups and Musk's lock-up period.

Adding to this, today's Fed meeting indicates that the market hasn't fully relaxed. QQQ and BTC are both showing weakness, suggesting that risk appetite hasn't fully restored. If the Fed leans hawkish, high valuation and high volatility assets are likely to see their valuations compressed.

My understanding is straightforward:

In the short term, watch the liquidity.
In the mid-term, focus on earnings and unlocks.
In the long term, see if SpaceX can truly convert the narratives around Starlink, Starship, and AI into cash flow.

First, analyze the structure, then observe the price.📌

What do you all think? Is it heading for a rally or a pullback?

$SPCX $BTC
#SpaceX #美联储何时降息？ #GhostQuinnNotes

⚠️ The next crucial factor for BTC isn't the price, but the timing.

$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB

At the start of June, BTC briefly hit around $60,000.
By mid-June, it bounced back to around $66,000.

I'm primarily looking at 6 key phases:

1️⃣ | June 17–18
⚠️ Fed / Interest Rates / Press Conference
First, let's check the Fed's tone.
If it's hawkish, risk assets might get squeezed again; if not so hawkish, BTC could have a chance to test the upper resistance again.
This part is just about short-term spikes, not confirming a major bottom.

2️⃣ | June 18–July 3
⚠️ $70,000 / ETF / Shallow Bottom Confirmation
If BTC can hold steady at $68,000–$70,000, and ETF funds flow back in consistently, then around $60,000 could signify a shallow bottom.
If it keeps failing to break above $70,000, we need to be cautious about this repair.

3️⃣ | June 24–28
⚠️ CME / Futures Settlement / Liquidation
Around June 26 is the CME BTC futures settlement window.
It might not determine the trend, but it's likely to amplify volatility.

4️⃣ | July 14–31
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Bank of Japan
I'll be particularly cautious during this period.
If BTC hasn't held above $70,000, and there's no clear ETF inflow, mid to late July could see a second dip.
Observation zones: $62,000–$64,000, $58,000–$62,000, $52,000–$56,000.

5️⃣ | August 12–September 18
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Major Bottom Window
If we can't break above $70,000 consistently, I'll pay more attention to $52,000–$56,000.
It may not reach there, but it looks more like a major bottom observation area.

6️⃣ | October 13–November 25
⚠️ Historical Cycle / Major Bottom Confirmation
If the previous structure hasn't cleared out, this could be a larger cycle confirmation window.
BTC's bottom often takes time, capital, and sentiment to materialize, not just a few weeks.

💫 My Judgment:

June: Repair window.
Mid to late July: First danger window.
Mid-August to mid-September: Major bottom observation window.
Mid to late October: Cycle confirmation window.

⚡️ Three Key Levels:

⚡️ $68,000–$70,000: Can the repair hold?
⚡️ $58,000–$62,000: Can the shallow bottom hold?
⚡️ $52,000–$56,000: Is the major bottom forming?

Until funds flow back in, any rebound is just a bounce.
Until the structure stabilizes, any repair isn't a reversal.

First, focus on timing, then events, and finally how the funds choose to play out.

#BTC #ETH #fomc #cpi #ETF

Before $牛来 , during the panic sell-off, did you hold any spot?

Now at least four public chains are competing for new hype and narrative windows.

Solana chain
BNB chain
Robinhood Chain
Base chain

They need to use the meme ecosystem to generate trading volume and users. In 2026, meme coins will gradually become a financialized vehicle for any narrative.

So each chain needs its own meme benchmark. Niulai (New York) grew out of the BNB chain. Binance needs its own meme culture. And Niulai just happens to have strong market sentiment value—it will become a powerful catalyst and

So you can also take some small funds in advance to these chains to look for memes that have a chance to break out and set up positions. Once the unfavorable news has been fully priced in and digested, the positive catalysts will start to ferment. Capital needs to keep flowing.

But these meme coins are very risky—treat them like a lottery position, just for fun. Don’t get carried away.

In this period, both crypto and U.S. stocks are under pressure. Both are now gradually absorbing the effects of macroeconomic policies in advance. If there’s a pullback, it can be an opportunity to wait for the chance to get on board. For crypto, watch $BTC ; for U.S. stocks, watch $NVDAB $QQQB . When the bad news is all out, it becomes good news. Just hang in there. As long as you can catch your breath a little, the rebound will be very strong—after being squeezed for so, so long. You have to survive. Don’t fall before the dawn. Don’t use too much leverage. Keep position sizing and risk control in check. These days are prone to sudden “needle-like” spikes (price wicks). For futures, just play with a small position size—don’t be too rigid-minded.

$牛来 Regarding Niu Lai, I’ve always said that during the high point, don’t FOMO. But when the market truly drops, there aren’t many people brave enough to buy the dip in panic. Earlier, I also said Niu Lai still lacked a spot product. Just now, Binance officially announced that Niu Lai will open spot trading tonight.

From 8.18 Alpha → 8.30 perpetual futures → 9.9 spot, it only took about 22 days.

What Binance is really trying to capture might not even be this Niu Lai coin—it could be the attention of the next generation of retail investors, on-chain transaction volume, and wallet entry points.

The blockchain wars right now are extremely intense.

In the past 24 hours, Solana’s DEX trading volume was about $2.5 billion, BNB Chain about $2.14 billion, and Robinhood Chain already reached $1.81 billion.

Even more extreme: in the past 7 days:

Robinhood Chain $10.76 billion—already slightly higher than BSC’s $10.19 billion.

BNB Chain is fighting for the same pot of funds with Solana, Robinhood, and Base—capital that’s the most active, loves trading, and is most willing to try new assets.

That’s when Niu Lai’s value shows up.

It’s not a VC coin, and it doesn’t have an overly complex tech story.

It started from a mediocre domestic animation that somehow broke into the mainstream, yet it naturally has a name in the Crypto world that almost doesn’t need translating:

Niu Lai = The Bull Is Coming.

Web2 creates attention, Memes monetize that attention financially, BNB Chain carries on-chain trading, Alpha completes the filtering, and finally Binance Spot takes away the largest tier of liquidity.

Also, Binance Wallet recently has been weaving Memes, Flap/Four.meme, Stock Meme, RWA, and Alpha more and more tightly together—Niu Lai has already entered a related holdings reward system.

So I think:

In the future, the biggest value of Memes is to become a traffic gateway.

But for Niu Lai, don’t FOMO.

Now crude oil is breaking above $100 again, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, and the market is once again trading Federal Reserve rate hikes—macros don’t support mindless Risk-on.

#NiuLai #BNBChain #BinanceAlpha #Meme
$BTC
$SOL

Non-farm payrolls are about to be released. If after tonight’s data comes out, BTC can truly break and hold above 82,800, then it can be upgraded toward 90,000. Even stronger, the next step could be to challenge the 97,900 area. But be mentally prepared: if the data is favorable, yet BTC still can’t break through 82,800, then be cautious—this likely means the good news has already been priced in. Then you should look at 80k–75.7k–71.8k instead. In the short term, there may be a pullback, but in the long run it remains bullish. Prepare your positions and manage risk in advance—don’t be overly stubborn or assume things will keep going your way. After tonight’s NFP, there’s also PPI–CPI–FOMC. In September, stay patient—ideally, don’t move and wait for opportunities$BTC $ETH $SOL

82793, $BTC Next, the largest resistance zone—if it is effectively broken through, the next stage is 90,000, and then 97,867, which is around the 2026 peak area. Next, we need to confirm whether the 82,800–83,000 level can be effectively broken through.

Today, the first layer of impact is mainly the remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, which caused the market’s expectations for a Fed rate hike in September to drop from 70% to 48%, a 50-50 split.

The second layer is the rapid breakout in the yen and the sudden weakening of the US dollar—breaking below 99. This means global US dollar liquidity pressure declines, discounting pressure on risk assets decreases, and non-US asset purchasing power increases. As a result, gold and BTC rise.

The third layer is that after breaking above 80,000, it triggers technical buy orders. BTC has reclaimed the 50-week moving average. The last time it was above the 50-week moving average was at the end of 2025. Since then, it fell all the way from 126,000 to 60,000. Many quant models and trading algorithms track this indicator data over the long term. When the price breaks above it, the system triggers buying, and then the price rises.

The fourth layer is that short sellers are forced to cover. The market had generally been betting on Fed rate hikes, with a lot of capital shorting. But Waller’s remarks suddenly guided expectations in a different direction.

Another relatively large catalyst recently is that the US Treasury decided to increase the scale of long-term Treasury repurchase agreements.

But don’t rush—don’t panic. September is a month full of surprises and reversals. Don’t be afraid to miss out—opportunities are always more than you think$SOL $ETH

September was really uncomfortable. When you sign a contract, don’t praise yourself for going all-in on the entire position and with high leverage—also choosing a small-cap, high-volatility meme coin. Isn’t that just pure money-burning? Wouldn’t it be better to eat a few more pork knuckle rice meals? If you can bet right once or twice, the third time may be when you have to put your underwear in too. Don’t be too idealistic. Don’t trust your own technical analysis too much. Manage your position and risk properly—be a bit more cowardly. Survive. Don’t fall before dawn. Set up your spot positions more thoroughly. Once the market rebounds, it’s still really, really attractive $SOL $LINK $UNI

Stocks are surging ahead so fast that I’m afraid of missing out. But now it’s truly pulling back—yet I’m even less willing to add.

September macro won’t be very comfortable: oil prices, inflation, U.S. Treasuries, the Fed, and geopolitical risk are all weighing down the market.
It feels rough in the short term, but I’m optimistic long term. If there’s a pullback, we can gradually build a position.

Here are a few areas I’m more bullish on.

Track 1: Stablecoins
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and 21 other institutions are moving forward with dollar stablecoins.
It won’t just benefit stablecoins—settlement, trading, payments, and oracles also benefit.
These leading players are beyond doubt.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB $LINK

Track 2: RWA / tokenized assets on-chain
DTCC has already tokenized traditional securities and run through scenarios like Treasury Repo, stocks, and collateral.
On-chain there will be stocks, bonds, funds, gold, and credit.
Look at $LINK $ONDO.
But good projects don’t automatically mean good tokens—you still need to keep monitoring.

Track 3: Permissionless perpetual contracts
In the past, whether you could list perps depended on the exchange.
HIP-3 opens this up to developers—there’s room for imagination for stocks, gold, crude oil, indices, and even Pre-IPO.
Representative: $HYPE . If it pumps too much, it’s better to wait.

Track 4: Value capture from on-chain exchanges
In DeFi, people may use it and pay fees, but token holders may not necessarily benefit.
Now Uniswap links protocol fees with UNI burning.
Trading volume → fees → revenue → burning.
Representative: $UNI.

Track 5: On-chain interest-rate markets
The bigger stablecoins, RWA, and DeFi get, the more on-chain interest there is.
Pendle separates principal and future yield, making interest tradable too.
Representative: $PENDLE.

Track 6: AI Agent + Crypto
What’s truly worth holding long term isn’t AI memes—but AI also needs identity, wallets, payments, data, and settlement.
ERC-8004 for identity, x402 for payments, Chainlink for data, NEAR for collateral of agents and intents.
Binance’s Agent OS has also integrated APIs, an agentic wallet, MCP, and x402.

The real thing you can bet on is the whole financial system moving on-chain.

Money on-chain → assets on-chain → trading on-chain → interest rates on-chain → AI agents → machine economics.

When the market panics and prices get misaligned, we can gradually build positions.

I believe there will still be many opportunities in the future.

$BTC $ETH $SOL $LINK $HYPE

$牛来 is getting close to 0.07—does anyone still dare to add more? 🤭 I said before: if you really believe in him, adding spot positions at this level is a pretty comfortable price. But the lower it goes, the more panic there is, and the fewer people dare to add. At this point, I still don’t recommend adding. The contract’s funding is still very high and positive. This level isn’t comfortable—you still need a dedicated cleanup round around 0.07 for long leveraged positions, stabbing into fear and panic. Of course, for now the external macro environment is also at a short-term global risk-off phase, so stay alert. September has a lot of major events: 9/4 Non-Farm Payrolls, 9/10 PPI plus the European ECB, 9/11 CPI, and the most dangerous 72 hours of September, as well as 9/15 the clear bill progress, and 9/17–18 the FOMC + dot plot + Japan BOJ. Looking long-term: the bull run already has the potential to reach 0.2–0.5. But don’t FOMO. Only use the amount you can afford to lose down to zero. If not, it’s better to gradually build positions in the track that may become a new financial infrastructure in the future—earn money within your own capability and cognition. Keep cash. Always believe that future opportunities will be more than before.

$牛来 This has already gotten about 10x now, right? As of now, macro risks haven’t disappeared. The Fed Chair Warsh’s somewhat hawkish remarks have also pushed the market’s probability for a September rate hike from 35% up to 56%. But the long-term bull narrative has already started to move away from the film itself and from the lifecycle of the financial market. What’s still missing is a narrative around a Binance spot play. So in the future, there’s a possibility it could move Binance life’s position. In my view, the bull narrative is relatively less constrained than Binance life—it has much broader scope—so there’s still a chance to challenge it. And even in the future, it could potentially become a world-class Chinese meme coin. If you believe, all you need to do is buy the dips on the left side. You can gradually build a light position following retracement levels of 23.6%-38.2%-50%-61.8%-78.6% from the high. If you can also get a price around 0.09, or even 0.07, that would be extremely tasty. But when it truly reaches those levels, not many people would dare to add—because it tends to trigger panic-driven stampedes and leads to mispricing 🤭

$牛来 I see some KOLs going straight in with leverage; be careful not to get liquidated. Some things are kind of mystical—whether you’re going long or short, be careful. Unless you’re buying the dip, just do spot trades and that’s it; don’t do futures. Live on—don’t fall before dawn. If you can accept big volatility, you can wait for a pullback and then buy the dip directly: besides BTC, buy the top five coins by market cap, and buy according to their market-cap proportions. In the future, you’ll thank yourself for the choice you make today. If your capital is large, you must size your BTC exposure with leverage; steady execution and risk management come first. Don’t dream of getting rich overnight—everything is survivor bias. Control your hands; don’t make too many trades. The more you trade, the easier it is to make mistakes$BTC $SOL

$牛来 It has only been a few days and already broke 100 million, and it even got onto the contract. Liquidity has been strengthened again, but don’t FOMO—if you believe, just add more at the low end. I’m betting it can become the #1 “dragon” in the Chinese circle. Because this meme coin, at least on the bubble chart, is relatively cleaner compared to other coins—except for the first address (Binance’s retail-collector cluster). The other top 10 addresses don’t have any single, standout whale. As long as they keep topping up at high prices, we can accumulate at lower levels. My psychological price: if it drops another 50%, then I can add a bit more. Its narrative is pretty interesting. It’s already moved past the hype cycle of the film and is still alive. Next, the whole crypto market needs to enter a bull market, which will push it further toward “divine coin” territory. Right now, the crypto market still needs caution. The upcoming September and October are extremely critical—major events are coming one after another. If it can go smoothly through that, then it’ll really take off. But I’d actually prefer it to come down a bit more 🤭. I believe there are still plenty of people who haven’t truly boarded yet 🤡

$牛来 How have you all been these past couple of days? Missing out is the best gift. Keep your hands in check—survivorship bias will make you feel like you missed a great opportunity, sweetheart. First, just stay alive. Opportunities won’t be only once; take your time and wait. Don’t go for the first bite of meat—the first bite of meat is very dangerous. People can die, you know.
$BTC $ETH

⚠️ When everyone is in FOMO, I actually want to say this:

A rise doesn’t mean the risk has disappeared.

More often than not, when the price rises until everyone starts believing, that’s when the risk becomes more expensive.

🚀 $BTC surged from 64,000 to over 70,000, topping at 72,000+
🔥 $ETH jumped directly from 1,900 to 2,300+

Now everywhere people are shouting:

“ The bull run is back! ”
“ If you don’t act now, you’ll miss out!”

But don’t rush yet.

This round of上涨 does have support:

🇺🇸 The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase, and U.S. Treasury yields fell;

The SEC is advancing a new Crypto regulatory framework;

The White House convened Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, the SEC, and the CFTC;

The CLARITY Act continues to move forward;

Plus, a large number of shorts have been liquidated.

So, this isn’t just air-rising.

But

Good news is real—yet it doesn’t mean any price right now is a good price.

The newly released FOMC minutes are also still somewhat hawkish:

Some people supported rate hikes as early as July;

Many members believe inflation won’t continue to fall, and policy could still tighten in the future;

The Fed has even started worrying about overvaluations, AI financing, and hedge funds’ high leverage.

These risks haven’t disappeared just because BTC broke above 70,000.

And don’t forget:

The BTC perpetual market broke 70,000 first, and spot followed afterward.

There’s real money here—and there’s also clearly forced short-squeezing.

A squeeze can push the price up fast, but it can’t replace new incoming capital forever.

So the one question I truly want to see now is:

After everyone starts believing in the bull market again, can 70K actually be held?

If BTC pulls back to 69K–70K and can still hold,
with ETF inflows continuing, ETH continuing to take the baton, and stablecoins starting to expand,

Then I’ll believe the market really has changed.

But if you forget all the risks from the past few months just because of one big bullish candle,

That isn’t investing—it’s just finding excuses for emotions after prices rise.

The easiest time for the market to make people mistake things is usually not when they’re afraid, but when:

Other people are making money, and suddenly you feel like if you don’t get on now, you’ll never have another chance.

Don’t rush.

If a real bull market is coming, it won’t only give you a few hours today.

📌 When prices rise, watch the risk; when prices fall, watch the value

$BNB $SOL

#BTC #ETH #sol #FOMO #FOMC

🐳 Don’t be impulsive. Wait until your emotions stabilize before you decide—otherwise you’ll die a miserable death. First, stay alive. There aren’t that many overnight fortunes. When you start thinking you’ll get rich overnight, Death is right behind you.$BTC $ETH $SOL

$牛来 I always have a hunch that this meme coin will become a divine coin—maybe it’ll even become the #1 in the Chinese-speaking circle. Of course, it’s still too small right now; it could die anytime 🤪

$牛来 Is this going to go find Mom together with $BTC ?

$牛来 This token is really something—just got into Alpha, and this market is directly skyrocketing. Kinda feels mystical 😂

💥💥💥 Is the bull market back???
$BTC 24H once surged +7%, with the contract high hitting 70450
$ETH even more aggressive: in the past 24H, the high was up +18.45%, and it once jumped to 2,336
Overall, total trading volume in the entire crypto market over the past 24H increased by nearly 90%.

What’s interesting is that the newly released FOMC minutes were actually hawkish: some supported rate hikes as early as July, and many members believe inflation isn’t falling—so tightening could continue

Turns out the market didn’t crash; instead, ETH kept rallying

Behind the scenes, several forces are resonating:

U.S. Treasury yields falling + U.S. dollar weakening + the SEC pushing forward new crypto rules + the White House promoting CLARITY + capital returning + short-squeeze dynamics.

Next, we’ll see:

Whether BTC can turn 70K from resistance into support
Whether ETH can hold above 2200 and regain a foothold above 2300

If both of these happen, this rally won’t be just a bounce
$SOL
#FOMC会议纪要 #BTC突破7万大关