ghostquinnnotes

#美联储利率决议即将公布

🚀$SPCX From the IPO pricing of $135 to now above $200, the market cap has soared to a whopping $2.6 trillion. At this level, investors aren't just buying current profits; they are banking on the future narratives of Starlink, Starship, defense contracts, xAI, Cursor, and even space data centers.

The narrative is massive, and the valuation is stretched.

Right now, SpaceX's short-term strength is driven by several factors:

① Initial circulating supply is quite low
② Strong demand at IPO
③ Hot options trading
④ Anticipation of inclusion in the Nasdaq-100
⑤ Musk's narrative naturally attracts attention

So it can continue to be strong in the short term, possibly even rally higher.

However, starting from late July / August, the logic will gradually shift.

What we've seen is a "buying frenzy" phase, but it will transition into a "earnings verification + unlocked supply" phase.

The period from September to December will see a more intense window of ordinary lock-up shares being released.
By the first half of 2027, we will also face psychological milestones related to longer lock-ups and Musk's lock-up period.

Adding to this, today's Fed meeting indicates that the market hasn't fully relaxed. QQQ and BTC are both showing weakness, suggesting that risk appetite hasn't fully restored. If the Fed leans hawkish, high valuation and high volatility assets are likely to see their valuations compressed.

My understanding is straightforward:

In the short term, watch the liquidity.
In the mid-term, focus on earnings and unlocks.
In the long term, see if SpaceX can truly convert the narratives around Starlink, Starship, and AI into cash flow.

First, analyze the structure, then observe the price.📌

What do you all think? Is it heading for a rally or a pullback?

$SPCX $BTC
#SpaceX #美联储何时降息？ #GhostQuinnNotes