FunFacts

If we look at Bitcoin through the lens of its traditional 4-year halving cycle, we are currently deep in the "capitulation and bottoming" phase of the bear market.
Historically, each cycle follows a strict rhythm: a post-halving parabolic bull run, a blow-off top, followed by a punishing 12-to-15-month bear market that eventually finds its floor.
Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 at $126,272, and with prices currently sliding down into the high-$50ks, the data tells a very clear story about how far this crash could go.
1. The Timing: When is the Bottom?
Historically, Bitcoin bottoms 24 to 28 months after a halving, which translates to 12 to 15 months after the cycle peak.
The Math: October 2025 (Peak) + 12 to 15 months = October to December 2026.
Major institutional analytics firms (like Glassnode, CryptoQuant, and Galaxy Digital) heavily target Q4 2026 as the final macro bottom window.
2. The Price Targets: How Deep is the Crash?
As Bitcoin matures, its percentage drawdowns are compressing (getting shallower) due to institutional capital and ETF stabilization.
Cycle Peak Cycle Trough Total Drawdown %
2013 Peak 2015 Trough -85%
2017 Peak 2018 Trough -84%
2021 Peak 2022 Trough -77%
2025 Peak ($126,272) 2026 Expected Trough -50% to -65% (Projected)
Based on current institutional and on-chain models, analysts are split into two primary target zones for the remainder of 2026:
Case A: The Institutional Floor ($50,000 – $55,000) — Highest Probability
A 55% to 60% macro correction from the $126k peak brings us right into the $50k–$55k range.
Why it holds: This aligns perfectly with the aggregate cost-basis (Realized Price) of long-term holders and spot ETF buyers. The structural bid from Wall Street is expected to create a massive wall of liquidity here, preventing the classic 80% collapses of the past.
Case B: Deeper Capitulation ($40,000 – $46,000) — The Maximum Pain Scenario
If macro liquidity completely dries up, a full 65% drawdown would expose the $40k territory.
Why it happens: Galaxy Digital's historical cycle data notes that if a true panic emerges and short-term holders completely surrender, the absolute floor sits around $40k. This would be a brief, wick-down capitulation event before an aggressive bounce.
3. What to Watch Next
The key battleground right now is the $60,000 line.
If $60k breaks and turns into resistance, expect a swift slide down to test the $50k–$52k options max-pain zone.
On-chain metrics to monitor include Miner Capitulation indicators and whether long-term HODLers (supply inactive for 1+ years) hold their ground or start distributing.

Der jüngste Rückgang des Kryptomarktes hat definitiv einige Nerven gekostet, besonders wenn wir Kriege und geopolitische Spannungen als Hauptursache ausschließen. Wenn es keine militärischen Konflikte gibt, die den Markt direkt beeinflussen, fallen die Preise normalerweise aufgrund einer Kombination aus makroökonomischen Faktoren, technischen Bewegungen und spezifischen Entwicklungen innerhalb der Krypto-Industrie selbst.
Hier sind die Hauptgründe, warum der Markt in den letzten Tagen im Minus ist:
1. Makroökonomie und Zinssätze (Die Fed)
Auch wenn wir nicht über Kriege sprechen, bestimmen die wirtschaftlichen Strategien der Zentralbanken immer den Rhythmus des Marktes. Die US-Notenbank (Fed) zögert weiterhin, die Zinssätze zu senken.