MacroMicro
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MacroMicro
Global Data and AI Decision Platform. Over 100 million data points and years of research to help you make smarter decisions: https://en.macromicro.me
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🌍H2 2026 Global Central Bank Outlook
✔️Around 30% of central banks are now hiking rates as the U.S.–Iran conflict pushes energy prices and inflation higher. However, most moves remain precautionary rather than the start of a prolonged global tightening cycle.
✔️The Fed is still expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% through year-end, despite deeper internal divisions and market pricing for one 25bp hike.
✔️The ECB, BOE and RBA may each hike once more in H2, while the BOJ is expected to raise rates by 25bp to 1.25% as it continues gradual normalization.
✔️Emerging markets are diverging. South Korea has already hiked, while Taiwan and India may follow as inflation rises. China, by contrast, is more likely to cut the RRR by 25–50bp to support weakening growth.
✔️Brazil and Russia remain in easing cycles, though the pace of cuts may slow.
🔗 https://dev.short.mmgo.me/ay7pts
✔️Around 30% of central banks are now hiking rates as the U.S.–Iran conflict pushes energy prices and inflation higher. However, most moves remain precautionary rather than the start of a prolonged global tightening cycle.
✔️The Fed is still expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% through year-end, despite deeper internal divisions and market pricing for one 25bp hike.
✔️The ECB, BOE and RBA may each hike once more in H2, while the BOJ is expected to raise rates by 25bp to 1.25% as it continues gradual normalization.
✔️Emerging markets are diverging. South Korea has already hiked, while Taiwan and India may follow as inflation rises. China, by contrast, is more likely to cut the RRR by 25–50bp to support weakening growth.
✔️Brazil and Russia remain in easing cycles, though the pace of cuts may slow.
🔗 https://dev.short.mmgo.me/ay7pts
人工智能進入泡沫了嗎？
市場正在重新評估AI週期的下一階段。
MM AI從三個關鍵視角進行分析：資本開支、現金流與盈利能力，以及市場預期。
我們的《8月投資月報》從更廣闊的市場角度出發，探討三個關鍵問題：
美聯儲今年是否需要上調利率？
最新的財報在告訴我們關於AI投資週期的哪些信息？
當市場的關注點從資本支出轉向現金流和盈利能力，投資者應如何重新思考資產配置？
AI趨勢依然不變，但市場的定價邏輯正在演變。
從MM AI Now開始：https://pse.is/9fbwus
市場正在重新評估AI週期的下一階段。
MM AI從三個關鍵視角進行分析：資本開支、現金流與盈利能力，以及市場預期。
我們的《8月投資月報》從更廣闊的市場角度出發，探討三個關鍵問題：
美聯儲今年是否需要上調利率？
最新的財報在告訴我們關於AI投資週期的哪些信息？
當市場的關注點從資本支出轉向現金流和盈利能力，投資者應如何重新思考資產配置？
AI趨勢依然不變，但市場的定價邏輯正在演變。
從MM AI Now開始：https://pse.is/9fbwus
查看翻譯
The U.S.–Japan intervention is more symbolic than substantive, as Washington is unlikely to commit major funds to supporting the yen over time.
The U.S. appears focused on containing disorderly depreciation rather than engineering a sustained rally. Its direct capacity remains limited, with the Exchange Stabilization Fund far smaller than the USD 35–60 billion Japan has deployed in a single round of intervention. Even expanded Treasury resources would face funding and market constraints.
Support may therefore be temporary. Wide U.S.–Japan rate differentials, further Fed hike risks, and fiscal spending that could delay BOJ tightening still point to structural yen weakness. A sustained reversal has yet to emerge.
https://t.co/I7tzpXZ5PG
The U.S. appears focused on containing disorderly depreciation rather than engineering a sustained rally. Its direct capacity remains limited, with the Exchange Stabilization Fund far smaller than the USD 35–60 billion Japan has deployed in a single round of intervention. Even expanded Treasury resources would face funding and market constraints.
Support may therefore be temporary. Wide U.S.–Japan rate differentials, further Fed hike risks, and fiscal spending that could delay BOJ tightening still point to structural yen weakness. A sustained reversal has yet to emerge.
https://t.co/I7tzpXZ5PG
查看翻譯
MacroMicro’s Korea Fear & Greed Index edged up to 8.44 after hitting a record low last week. Despite the slight rebound, sentiment remains firmly in extreme fear territory.
真實
💴日本的創紀錄日元干預（8.45萬億日元）爭取了時間，但並未扭轉日元走勢。創紀錄的單日最大日元買入量，再加上所報道的美國財政部行動，使得美元/日元回推至約157附近。但對歐洲穩定機制（ESF）而言，其規模僅約爲130億歐元、245億美元，而利率差異較大，使日元在結構上仍偏弱。
大型科技公司的現金流承壓是一個“資金來源”問題，而非“需求”問題。Google、Meta和Amazon將2026年的資本開支指引上調至195–2050億美元、130–1450億美元和2200億美元，使得Google與Amazon在第二季度的自由現金流轉爲負值。在積壓訂單（backlog）覆蓋方面，四家超大規模雲服務商中仍有三家有所改善。韓國也呈現同樣的差口：SK Hynix的營收增長257%，但在被迫清算ETF的情況下，股價卻下跌9.6%。
美聯儲以9比3維持不變的決策，是自2016年以來最寬的分歧，但在10年期收益率達到4.7%、且6月核心PCE爲0.13%（環比）之後，長端纔是“緊縮”的來源。
📥本週的評論涵蓋日元、超大規模雲服務商的融資、韓國內存產業以及美聯儲👇
🔗 https://pse.is/9f36gr
大型科技公司的現金流承壓是一個“資金來源”問題，而非“需求”問題。Google、Meta和Amazon將2026年的資本開支指引上調至195–2050億美元、130–1450億美元和2200億美元，使得Google與Amazon在第二季度的自由現金流轉爲負值。在積壓訂單（backlog）覆蓋方面，四家超大規模雲服務商中仍有三家有所改善。韓國也呈現同樣的差口：SK Hynix的營收增長257%，但在被迫清算ETF的情況下，股價卻下跌9.6%。
美聯儲以9比3維持不變的決策，是自2016年以來最寬的分歧，但在10年期收益率達到4.7%、且6月核心PCE爲0.13%（環比）之後，長端纔是“緊縮”的來源。
📥本週的評論涵蓋日元、超大規模雲服務商的融資、韓國內存產業以及美聯儲👇
🔗 https://pse.is/9f36gr
📈7月對科技業來說是個艱困的月份。所以在邁入8月之際，真正的問題不只是科技會不會反彈；而是領導層是否開始擴大範圍。
我們分享最新的投資儀表板，圍繞3個主題打造：
1. 違反聯準會（Fed）共識的聲音正在上升
2. 地緣政治波動再度回來
3. AI交易正從資本支出與定價權，轉向現金流與獲利
我們的基本情境：我們仍然偏好股票勝過債券，但我們正在從科技擴展到非科技領域，例如金融類與國內需求。
我們也密切關注3個關鍵訊號：
- 半導體營收相對於庫存
- 台灣出口成長
- WTI / 美國-伊朗壓力
⏰歡迎分享或轉貼。
在下一步行動之前，關注 MacroMicro 以掌握市場風險的動向：
https://en.macromicro.me
我們分享最新的投資儀表板，圍繞3個主題打造：
1. 違反聯準會（Fed）共識的聲音正在上升
2. 地緣政治波動再度回來
3. AI交易正從資本支出與定價權，轉向現金流與獲利
我們的基本情境：我們仍然偏好股票勝過債券，但我們正在從科技擴展到非科技領域，例如金融類與國內需求。
我們也密切關注3個關鍵訊號：
- 半導體營收相對於庫存
- 台灣出口成長
- WTI / 美國-伊朗壓力
⏰歡迎分享或轉貼。
在下一步行動之前，關注 MacroMicro 以掌握市場風險的動向：
https://en.macromicro.me
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