Dewangga_

$BTC Macroeconomy Weekly Outlook☕️
Weekly Bias: 🟨Sideways to 🟥Bearish | TD Sequential at 7 Down suggests downside exhaustion, but ADX remains weak bearish. Price holding near lower BB. Key catalysts this week: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes, Philly Fed, and PMIs.
Monday, 17 Aug: 🟨 Sideways. Minor data only. Chinese Industrial Production forecast at 5.0% from 5.4% previous, a slowdown signal. Japanese Industrial Production at 1.3%. US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 10.60 from 5.70 previous, a significant recovery. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions at 20:00 UTC.
Monday is a data-light session with low-impact catalysts. Chinese data is expected to cool slightly, which is a dovish global growth signal. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to recover sharply from 5.70 to 10.60, a green signal that strengthens the DXY. The market will likely remain sideways as traders position for Tuesday's housing data. Expect a slow, choppy session with no clear direction.
Prediction: Bitcoin slow with price range $62,500~$63,500
Direction: 🟨Sideways
Tuesday, 18 Aug: 🟥 Red. Housing data day. Housing Starts forecast at 1.350M from 1.177M previous, a significant beat. Building Permits forecast at 1.370M from 1.410M previous, a slight miss. Pending Home Sales forecast at 0.1% from -0.5% previous, a recovery. Industrial Production at 0.3% from 0.1% previous, a beat.
Tuesday is Housing day. Housing Starts are expected to jump from 1.177M to 1.350M, a massive beat that is dollar-positive and bearish for Bitcoin. Building Permits are expected to drop from 1.410M to 1.370M, a dovish signal that could limit the downside. Pending Home Sales are expected to recover from -0.5% to 0.1%, a green signal. Industrial Production is expected to beat at 0.3% from 0.1%. The data is mixed, but the Housing Starts beat is dominant. Expect a red day with selling pressure.
Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $61,500~$63,000
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Wednesday, 19 Aug: 🔴🟢 Volatile. Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30 UTC forecast at 17.423M from 17.423M previous, flat. Cushing Crude at 1.611M. FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 UTC is the headline catalyst. 20-Year Bond Auction at 17:00 UTC at 5.163%.
Wednesday is the king of the week. The FOMC Minutes from the July meeting will be scrutinised for any hint of a dovish pivot. Given the negative NFP (-23K) and cooling CPI, the market expects dovish undertones. Any confirmation of a pivot will trigger a violent pump towards 65k. However, the crude data at 17.423M is massively bearish for oil, easing inflation fears and supporting risk assets. The 20-Year Bond Auction at 5.163% shows yield creep. Expect a volatile session with an initial pump on the FOMC Minutes, followed by profit-taking.
Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $62,000~$65,000
Direction: 🟩Bullish (FOMC Pivot)
Thursday, 20 Aug: 🟩 Green. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index forecast at 24.3 from 41.4 previous, a significant drop. Initial Jobless Claims forecast at 210K from 209K previous, a rise. Japanese National Core CPI at 23:30 UTC forecast at 1.8% from 1.6% previous, a rise. Japanese National CPI at 0.3% from 0.3% previous, flat.
Thursday is Philly Fed and Claims day. The Philly Fed Index is expected to crash from 41.4 to 24.3, a massive cooling signal that is dovish and weakens the DXY. Jobless Claims are expected to rise from 209K to 210K, a dovish signal. Japanese Core CPI rising from 1.6% to 1.8% is a yen-strengthening signal that supports risk assets. The data is overwhelmingly dovish. Expect a green day with a pump towards 64.5k.
Prediction: Bitcoin bullish with price range $63,000~$64,500
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Friday, 21 Aug: 🟩🟥 Volatile. PMI day. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI forecast at 54.0 from 53.9 previous, a slight beat. S&P Global Services PMI forecast at 53.9 from 51.2 previous, a massive beat. Japanese Services PMI at 00:30 UTC forecast at 51.2 from 51.9 previous, a slight miss.
Friday is PMI day. US Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold at 54.0, a green signal. US Services PMI is expected to explode from 51.2 to 53.9, a massive beat that is dollar-positive and bearish for Bitcoin. Japanese Services PMI is expected to drop from 51.9 to 51.2, a dovish signal. The US Services PMI beat is dominant. Expect a pump on the data, followed by a dump as weekend war fears and profit-taking kick in.
Prediction: Bitcoin volatile with price range $62,000~$64,500
Direction: 🟩Bullish then 🟥Bearish (Pump and Dump)
Saturday, August 22
Analysis: Weekend. No data. Markets closed. Geopolitical headlines (War Premium) may emerge. It is advisable to not trading on weekend, rest well and have fun with family and friends.
Prediction: Bitcoin slow with range $62,500~$63,500 because no data/holiday/no institution movement.
Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️
Sunday, August 23
Analysis: Weekend. No data. Markets closed. Geopolitical headlines (War Premium) may emerge. It is advisable to not trading on weekend, rest well and have fun with family and friends.
Prediction: Bitcoin slow with range $62,500~$63,500 because no data/holiday/no institution movement.
Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️
Bias: The stagflation narrative remains intact. FOMC Minutes are the most critical catalyst this week. If the minutes confirm a dovish pivot, Bitcoin could pump towards 65k. However, the Services PMI beat on Friday is a major risk to the downside. The structural bearish trend remains intact until we break above 65k with volume. TD Sequential at 7 Down suggests downside exhaustion, but ADX remains weak bearish. Expect choppy action with a slight bullish skew.
#NFA #DYOR 🔥
Not a futures signal🛑
$ETH $BNB #fomc #FOMC‬⁩ #crudeoil #S&P500

$BTC Báo cáo Triển vọng Kinh tế Vĩ mô Hàng tuần☕️
Xu hướng hàng tuần: 🟩 Tăng | NFP âm (-23K) là chất xúc tác “diễn biến siêu ôn hòa” buộc Fed phải chuyển hướng theo hướng thận trọng. CPI dự kiến hạ nhiệt, củng cố kịch bản ôn hòa. Trường hợp tăng trưởng bền vững vẫn vững chắc khi M2 Supply đạt ATH. Các chất xúc tác chính trong tuần này: CPI, PPI và Doanh số Bán lẻ.

Thứ Hai, 10 Tháng 8: 🟩 Xanh. Không có dữ liệu quan trọng nào từ Mỹ. Nhật Bản nghỉ Lễ Mountain Day. Thị trường sẽ tiêu hóa số liệu NFP tiêu cực từ thứ Sáu. Câu chuyện mang tính ôn hòa vẫn tiếp tục chi phối. Khả năng cao là hoạt động tích lũy của Blackrock sẽ tiếp diễn.