Everyone's fixated on the 90% hike odds like that's the interesting part. It's not, that number's already priced in. The actual trade is in what Powell says after.
August core #CPI came in at 0.3% month over month, which basically locked in the hike. What matters is the fifteen minutes after the decision, when he starts talking about the dot plot and whether another hike is coming before year end. That's the part nobody's positioned for.
My take: if it's a hike plus dovish-ish language, $BTC
and tech dip on the headline and claw it back within a day or two. Same pattern all year, sell the rumor, buy the confirmed pause. $GOLD.US
's the one I'm actually watching, it doesn't need bad news to hold up, it just needs the uncertainty to stick around.
I'm not opening anything new until the presser's done. The number doesn't move me. The tone does.
One hike and done, or is this the start of something longer? Curious how you're trading it.
Follow for more through #FOMC week.
#FedRateWatch #NewsAboutCrypto
August core #CPI came in at 0.3% month over month, which basically locked in the hike. What matters is the fifteen minutes after the decision, when he starts talking about the dot plot and whether another hike is coming before year end. That's the part nobody's positioned for.
My take: if it's a hike plus dovish-ish language, $BTC
and tech dip on the headline and claw it back within a day or two. Same pattern all year, sell the rumor, buy the confirmed pause. $GOLD.US
's the one I'm actually watching, it doesn't need bad news to hold up, it just needs the uncertainty to stick around.
I'm not opening anything new until the presser's done. The number doesn't move me. The tone does.
One hike and done, or is this the start of something longer? Curious how you're trading it.
Follow for more through #FOMC week.
#FedRateWatch #NewsAboutCrypto
