FOMC SEPTEMBER: The Fed’s Next Move Could Shake Markets

The Federal Reserve’s September meeting is here, with the policy decision scheduled for September 16. Markets are heavily leaning toward a 25-basis-point rate hike, with recent pricing putting the probability around 90%+.

Why has the outlook changed so quickly?

August CPI showed headline inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. More importantly, core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.

The bigger question is what comes after the September decision.

A 25bp hike is already largely priced in, so markets may react more to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments and future rate guidance than the hike itself. Some major institutions are now expecting another hike in December.

For crypto traders, this matters because higher rates can strengthen the dollar and put pressure on risk assets like $BTC and tech stocks, while keeping $XAU sensitive to yields and inflation expectations.

Is this just one hike, or the beginning of a longer tightening cycle?

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What’s the Fed’s next move?