📉 $BTC — small pullback after a good month
$BTC opened the week at $64,500 and closed at $62,800 📉 a modest -2.6% pullback. Not alarming in isolation — but it comes right after the best week of July and confirms the market still has no real conviction above $65K. Fear & Greed slipped slightly to 32 — fear territory, but stable. The range continues. 😐
🏦 ETF — 3-week winning streak ends
After three consecutive weeks of positive inflows — the streak is over. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded -$61.53M in net outflows this week 😬 But context matters here — compare this to the -$1.79B seen in a single week in June. This is a relatively small number. Institutions are not running — just pausing ahead of major macro events. The question is whether outflows accelerate or stabilize next week. 👀
📉 Weekly outflows: -$61.53M — 3-week streak ended
⚠️ But context: June's worst week was -$1.79B — this is minimal
👀 More a pause than a reversal — watch next week closely
🌡 macro — same story, slowly improving
The data this week confirmed what we already knew — the macro picture is improving slowly but not fast enough 👇
Core PCE month-on-month continued to ease — inflation is cooling gradually as the Hormuz effect works its way through energy prices. GDP kept slowing — the economy is losing momentum and the growth picture is getting harder to defend. Neither number gives the Fed a clean reason to move in either direction. 🧠
✅ Core PCE MoM: easing — inflation slowly cooling
✅ Hormuz effect showing up — energy prices normalizing
📉 GDP: slowing — economy losing momentum
😐 Neither data point changes the Fed's calculus yet
🏛 fomc — warsh holds, hawks gaining ground
The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% for the fifth consecutive time — no surprise. But what the meeting revealed is more important than the decision itself. 9 out of 18 Fed officials have now officially penciled in at least one rate hike for 2026. The conversation in the room has shifted — not toward cuts, but toward hikes. Warsh abstained from the dot plot again giving zero forward guidance. The most divided Fed in a decade. 😬
🏛 Rates: held 3.50–3.75% — fifth consecutive hold
🚨 9/18 officials penciled in a rate hike for 2026
⚠️ Warsh: abstained from dot plot — no guidance again
😬 Conversation shifting from cuts to hikes
📅 Next FOMC: September — most important of the year
🔑 week in short
A week of confirmation rather than surprise. Inflation easing — confirmed. Economy slowing — confirmed. Fed divided and stuck — confirmed. ETF outflows small but the streak is broken. $BTC pulled back modestly but held above $62K. The macro environment is slowly improving but the Fed is moving toward hikes not cuts — and that contradiction keeps the market in check. August 7 is the next major catalyst — NFP and the CLARITY Act deadline on the same day. 🎯
