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$BTC — range, no direction
$BTC opened at $62,500 and closed at $63,000 😐 practically unchanged. Two weeks in a row of range — the market has no clear direction. No strong buyers, no strong sellers. Just uncertainty waiting for the next catalyst. Fear & Greed at 29 — fear, slowly recovering but still fragile. 👀
🏦 ETF — 8-day outflow streak broken
After 8 consecutive days of outflows — institutions came back with +$197.40M in net inflows this week 🟢 Better than last week's $144M. Two consecutive weeks of positive flows after months of bleeding — still small numbers, but the direction is changing. Watch if this holds into next week. 👁
✅ 8-day outflow streak broken
📈 Weekly inflows: +$197.40M — improving week on week
📈 Two consecutive positive weeks for the first time since April
👀 Still need confirmation — watch next 2 weeks
🏛 FOMC minutes — a "family fight" on record
The most important event of the week — Warsh's first FOMC minutes dropped Wednesday. What they revealed was striking 👇
The committee is split 9-to-8 on whether to hike rates in 2026 — the most divided Fed in years. FOMC officials expressed that inflation would remain elevated in the near term and then begin to decline as the effects of tariffs and energy price increases wane and the Strait of Hormuz disruptions diminish. Warsh himself declined to submit a dot plot projection — the first Fed Chair to ever abstain — making these minutes the only on-record statement on his views. Markets reacted little to the minutes release, with stock market futures holding negative and Treasury yields rising. 😬
🏛 Fed split: 9 hawks vs 8 doves — most divided in years
📊 Warsh: abstained from dot plot — no forward guidance
🌡 Core PCE forecast revised UP to 3.3% for 2026
📉 GDP forecast revised DOWN to 2.2%
💬 Warsh: "family fight" — but unanimous hold for now
⚠️ Rate hike probability December 2026: 40% per CME
📅 Next FOMC: July 28-29 — hold expected at 79.5%
⚖️ CLARITY Act — last chance window
The CLARITY Act missed the July 4 deadline — but it's not dead yet. Lawmakers may drop a new version of the bill as soon as next week, combining the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee efforts. But the clock is brutal 👇
Senate returns July 13. August 7 recess is the effective deadline — only 25 days of floor time left. Polymarket prices 2026 passage at 48%, down from 74% a month ago. Republicans need 7 Democrats to reach 60 votes. Ethics provisions and stablecoin yield rules still unresolved. Senator Lummis warned: if it fails before midterms, the next chance is 2030. 😬
❌ July 4 deadline missed — no floor vote
⏰ Effective deadline: August 7 recess — 25 days left
📊 Polymarket odds: 48% — down from 74% last month
⚠️ Still needs 60 votes — 7 Democrats must cross
🆕 New combined draft expected: week of July 14
⚠️ If it fails: next chance is 2030 per Senator Lummis
🕊 iran — ceasefire called "over" at NATO
Major escalation mid-week — Trump called the Iran ceasefire "over" at the NATO summit on July 8. Oil surged 6% on the news. Then hours later the White House clarified the statement — walking it back slightly. Markets whipsawed. The MOU implementation remains fragile — Iran's Supreme Leader still at odds with President Pezeshkian on the deal. Oil settled around $72/barrel — up from $68 but well below the $126 war peak. The 60-day MOU window expires mid-August — the next critical deadline. 👀
⚠️ Trump: ceasefire "over" at NATO — then walked back
🛢 Oil: spiked +6% on the statement → settled ~$72/barrel
😬 Iran Supreme Leader vs President: still divided on MOU
📅 MOU 60-day window: expires mid-August
✅ Hormuz: ships still moving — no physical closure
🔑 week in short
$BTC 📊 $62,500 → $63,000 — pure range, no direction
🏦 ETF +$197.40M — 8-day streak broken, 2nd positive week ✅
😰 Fear & Greed 29 — fear, slowly improving
🏛 FOMC minutes: Fed split 9-8, hawkish tone, no guidance 😬
⚖️ CLARITY Act: 25 days left — 48% odds, make or break
🛢 Iran: Trump "ceasefire over" then walked back — oil volatile
Two positive ETF weeks in a row — the first since April. That's the only real positive. The FOMC minutes confirmed a deeply divided Fed with no clear direction. The CLARITY Act is in its final window. Iran remains unpredictable. June CPI drops July 14 — that's the most important number of the month. It will set the tone for the July 29 FOMC and everything that follows. 🎯
#fomc #Warsh #CLARITYAct #DYOR* #etf