cmf

Điểm chính
Tại sao giá của #XPL gần đây lại giảm mạnh?
Do hợp đồng chưa thanh lý rút ra 30 triệu USD cùng với tâm lý giảm giá của các nhà giao dịch hợp đồng vĩnh viễn, XPL đã giảm 5% trong 24 giờ qua.
Những yếu tố nào có thể thúc đẩy đợt tăng giá tiếp theo của XPL?
Sự gia tăng mạnh mẽ 5,9 triệu USD trong giao dịch giao ngay, dòng tiền Chaikin tích cực (0,07) và hình thái biểu đồ tam giác tăng giá đều báo hiệu khả năng phục hồi tiềm năng.
Thị trường plasma [XPL] hoạt động yếu, tài sản giảm nhẹ 5% trong ngày qua, so với mức giảm 47% trong tháng qua, đây là một cú sốc lớn.
Mặc dù xu hướng giảm giá này vẫn tiếp tục, nhưng với sự xuất hiện của nhiều dấu hiệu tăng giá hơn, giá có thể sắp phục hồi.

XRP price is down almost 8% in the past week, and even though the last 24 hours have been flat, the absence of red cannot be mistaken for strength.
The chart and on-chain data indicate that XRP is under real pressure, despite one group of investors continuing to buy the dip.
Short-Term Holders Keep Buying — But One Group Doesn’t Agree
HODL Waves — a metric that shows how much supply each holding-duration group controls — reveals that two short-term cohorts have been steadily accumulating XRP through the month.
On October 16, wallets holding XRP for 1–3 months controlled 8.94% of supply. As of November 14, they hold 9.17%.
Another short-term cohort, the 1-week to 1-month group, has increased from 3.74% to 5.53% of the supply in the same period.
Despite the XRP price dropping 7.8% over the past 30 days, these groups are accumulating, likely positioning for short-term bounces.
But this buying doesn’t seem strong enough to lift the price for one key reason.
The Hodler Net Position Change — a metric that tracks the amount of long-term investor supply entering or leaving wallets — indicates that long-term holders are selling aggressively. It showed heavy negative flow on November 3, when long-term wallets removed 102.50 million XRP. Instead of easing, outflows continued to rise.
By November 14, the number had jumped to 181.50 million XRP: a 77% increase in long-term selling pressure in less than two weeks.
This is the core reason the XRP price was unable to bounce: short-term buying is being overwhelmed by long-term exits.
XRP Price Feels the Pressure as Big Money Steps Back
On the chart, XRP is still struggling to break above $2.26, a strong 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. The push higher is weakening because money inflows are fading rapidly.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows. #CMF
has also broken below a descending trendline, indicating that larger investors are withdrawing rather than adding. When CMF stays negative while breaking trend support, upside attempts usually fail.
If weakness continues, XRP risks losing $2.17, exposing a deeper move toward $2.06. A breakdown below $2.06 would invalidate any short-term bullish attempts.
The only way to regain momentum is a clean daily close above $2.38 — a level that has rejected the price multiple times this month. Clearing it could open a path toward $2.57 and flip the near-term structure bullish.
#XRPRealityCheck #XRPPredictions #bullish
$XRP