RecodeX

📡 Daily News Roundup | July 09

Over the past 24 hours, global markets were violently shaken by extreme divergence between “geopolitical panic” and “tech exuberance.” The situation in the Middle East escalated rapidly: the U.S. launched a large-scale strike on Iran, the shipping of the Strait of Hormuz was nearly at a standstill, international oil prices surged by more than 8%, Brent crude broke above $80, and safe-haven demand pushed gold to a record high. Meanwhile, the AI and semiconductor sectors saw a cluster of positive catalysts. OpenAI, Meta, ByteDance, and others announced new models or chip plans one after another, helping tech stocks rebound strongly, with the STAR Market 50 index jumping more than 8% in a single day. Cryptocurrency markets faced pressure: Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark before rebounding. Sentiment was extremely bearish, but there were clear signs that institutions were buying the dip. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate a shift toward a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 51.5%, further exacerbating market volatility.

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📊 Global Macro

1. Rapid escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict: The U.S. launched large-scale airstrikes on Iran for two consecutive nights, hitting more than 80 targets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards retaliated by firing missiles at U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly halted, and the EU advised airlines to avoid the relevant airspace. If Iran faces further attacks, it threatens to close the strait, posing a serious risk of major disruption to global energy supplies.
2. International oil prices surge: WTI crude futures rose by more than 8% to $76 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 8.62% to $80.55 per barrel. Shanghai crude’s main contract rose 8%. Russia’s diesel export ban is set to remain in effect until July 31, and U.S. diesel futures’ intraday gains widened to 13%.
3. Fed meeting minutes signal a hawkish turn: The June meeting minutes showed growing disagreements among officials regarding inflation and rate outlooks. Some officials supported further rate hikes. AI investment was listed for the first time as one of the three major inflation risks alongside the Middle East war and tariffs. The September rate-hike probability rose to 51.5%.
4. Diverging U.S. economic data: In May, consumer credit unexpectedly fell by $180 million—the first decline since 2024 and far below expectations. Initial jobless claims of 215,000 were below forecasts, and the labor market remains strong. June existing home sales missed expectations, but the median home price hit a new high of $440,600.
5. China’s central bank maintains a loose policy tone: In its second-quarter policy meetings, the central bank emphasized continuing to implement moderately accommodative monetary policy, increasing counter-cyclical adjustments, maintaining ample liquidity, strengthening rate guidance, and stabilizing the exchange rate. China’s June CPI rose 1.0% year over year, and PPI rose 4.1% year over year—both in line with expectations.
6. Korea’s stock market enters a technical bear market: The KOSPI index has fallen more than 20% from its June high. Samsung and SK Hynix fell by more than 5% each due to concerns about chip trading, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. Foreign investors sold heavily, while retail investors stepped in as buyers, revealing underlying structural risks.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin rebounds after pressure: Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $60,000 support level, then rebounded to trade around the $63,000 mark. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire market exceeded $387 million, mainly driven by long positions. The Crypto Fear Index fell to 21, indicating investors are extremely pessimistic, but analysts believe BTC has entered a bottoming-out window.
2. Institutions buy the dip: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $143 million in a single day. BlackRock transferred about 951.5 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime. Public companies bought 110,000 Bitcoins in Q2, up 1.8 times quarter over quarter, signaling a trend of institutions treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
3. SWIFT launches blockchain pilot: SWIFT rolled out a blockchain ledger in collaboration with 17 banks to pilot tokenized cross-border payments—an important step toward integrating traditional finance with tokenized assets. Tether issued an additional 1 billion USDT on the Tron network, and the total TRC20-USDT issuance surpassed 90.2 billion, setting another record.
4. Regulatory developments: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to expand the President’s power over financial regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, adding uncertainty to regulation of crypto assets and RWA tokenization. The CFTC chair explicitly stated the U.S. will never launch a central bank digital currency and urged Congress to pass a crypto market structure bill.
5. Active crypto venture capital: Paradigm completed a $1.2 billion fundraise, expanding its investment scope from cryptocurrencies into artificial intelligence and robotics. Bitwise filed a Solana ETF application. Sony received conditional approval from the U.S. OCC and plans to launch a stablecoin trust bank in 2027.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. OpenAI rolls out in-depth releases: For ChatGPT users worldwide, OpenAI introduced a new generation of voice model, GPT-Live, with GPT-5.5 used in the backend—supporting real-time conversations and interruption. At the same time, it significantly accelerated the GPT-6 release plan to within this month and received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense.
2. Meta’s in-house chips and data centers: Meta plans to mass-produce its in-house AI chip “Iris” in September, aiming to double computing power to 14 gigawatts by 2027. It also announced a $10 billion investment to build what will be the largest data center overseas in Canada, and plans to sell AI compute capacity and provide access to models.
3. Chinese AI companies accelerate catch-up: MiniMax released a 27-trillion-parameter model, M3 Pro. Its performance exceeds overseas closed-source models, and it plans to open-source it as early as Q3. ByteDance released the Seedream 5.0 Pro image model, performing ahead in 17 test scenarios. Companies such as DeepSeek and Zhipu began developing their own AI chips, marking that competition in AI is shifting from the model layer to full-stack warfare.
4. NVIDIA updates: NVIDIA introduced the Vera CPU for AI agent workloads. The stock price rose more than 3.65%, but its market cap has evaporated by $1 trillion in less than two months, and its forward P/E multiple fell to 18x. France’s anti-monopoly investigation into NVIDIA is nearing its end, with the highest possible fine up to 10% of global annual revenue.
5. AI chip financing boom: AI chip startup Positron is in talks for about $750 million in fundraising, with a valuation potentially as high as $5 billion. Micron Technology plans to invest more than $25

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📡 8-Hour Recap | July 09, 16:00–24:00

Over the past 8 hours, the market saw sharp swings as multiple geopolitical shocks intertwined with tech tailwinds: tensions in the Middle East escalated abruptly after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases, restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. After oil prices plunged once, they later stabilized. Meanwhile, the AI and semiconductor sectors received a flurry of positive catalysts—Meta’s internally developed chip entered mass production, Micron unveiled a massive investment plan, and ByteDance released a new model—driving a strong rebound in tech stocks. Bitcoin traded in a range around the $63,000 level, and the crypto market showed signs of bottoming.

Macroeconomics

1. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 215,000, below expectations, and the labor market remains strong; June existing home sales at an annualized 4.09 million were below expectations, but the median home price reached a new high of $440,600.

2. The ECB’s June meeting minutes hinted that the policy stance may be loosened; UK assets face heightened volatility risk due to fiscal uncertainty.

3. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan and Beyond” carbon peak action plan, targeting non-fossil energy consumption to reach 25% by 2030, and reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% versus 2025.

4. The Ministry of Finance will issue the 5th and 6th series of treasury savings bonds in 2026, with 3-year yields at 1.63% and 5-year at 1.70%, and a total issuance of 60 billion yuan.

Crypto Market

1. After Bitcoin broke above $63,000, it has traded sideways while facing key resistance levels. Centralized exchange BTC and ETH balances have fallen to multi-year lows, suggesting investors are shifting toward self-custody.

2. SWIFT launched a blockchain ledger and partnered with 17 banks to pilot tokenized cross-border payments, marking an important step toward integrating traditional finance with asset tokenization.

3. Tether minted an additional 1 billion USDT on the Tron network. The TRC20-USDT issued supply surpassed 90.2 billion, reaching a new high again. Meanwhile, BlackRock transferred about 951.5 bitcoins to Coinbase Prime.

4. The realized losses on Bitcoin reached the highest level since December 2022, according to Glassnode, which indicates the market is in the later stage of bottoming. Listed companies bought 110,000 bitcoins in Q2, up 1.8x quarter-on-quarter.

5. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to expand the president’s power over financial regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, adding uncertainty to the regulation of cryptocurrencies and RWA tokenization.

AI and Technology

1. OpenAI rolled out an upgraded ChatGPT voice mode, adding real-time conversation and visual response capabilities. ByteDance released Seedream 5.0 Pro image model, performing ahead in 17 testing scenarios.

2. Meta plans to begin mass production of its in-house AI chip “Iris” in September, targeting a doubling of compute capacity to 14 gigawatts by 2027. Micron Technology plans to invest more than $250 billion in the U.S. by 2035, betting on demand for AI memory chips.

3. France’s antitrust investigation into Nvidia is nearing its end; the worst-case scenario could involve a global annual revenue fine of up to 10%. Bank of America reiterated a bullish view on Nvidia, believing the market is overconcerned about HBM costs and ASIC competition.

4. Huawei confirmed the Mate 90 series will be released in September, featuring HarmonyOS 7 and a new Kirin chip, with a 53.5% increase in transistor density.

5. Citigroup predicts a surge in memory prices will cause personal computer shipments to fall by 15% in 2026, and smartphone shipments to decline by 12%.

Geopolitics

1. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched ultra-heavy missiles from Iran toward U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf, escalating Middle East tensions. Iran announced it would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to about 50% of pre-war levels.

2. The U.S. launched attacks on Iran’s key trade routes, intensifying geopolitical tensions; the European Commission warned that heightened geopolitical stress may affect global financial stability.

3. Israel’s defense minister said Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while the Middle East conflict continues to escalate and push up oil prices.

Stock Markets and Financing

1. All three A-share major indexes rebounded collectively: the STAR Market 50 Index surged 8.41%, and the semiconductor industry chain exploded higher. The U.S. Nasdaq Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.32%; Micron jumped more than 6%, with AI chip stocks leading the rally.

2. Luxshare Precision’s Hong Kong stock debut saw a break below the issue price; it once fell by more than 7% intraday. Long鑫 Storage (CXMT) launched a STAR Market IPO, planning to raise at least 29.5 billion yuan, which would make it the second-largest IPO on the STAR Market.

3. Venture capital firm Paradigm completed a $1.2 billion fundraise, expanding its investment focus from crypto to artificial intelligence and robotics. European startups raised $24 billion in Q2, up 66% year-on-year.

4. Volkswagen’s electrification transition hit setbacks: global profits plunged 54%. It plans to cut 100,000 jobs and shut down factories in Germany; Porsche’s sales in the first half fell 16% year-on-year.

Market sentiment summary: The market is sharply bifurcating between “geopolitical panic” and “tech euphoria.” The Middle East conflict is boosting risk-avoidance sentiment, but dense positive catalysts in AI and semiconductors (Meta chips, Micron investment, SWIFT blockchain pilot) are driving a strong tech rebound. Bitcoin is building momentum around the $63,000 level, resulting in a cautious optimistic setup where “risk appetite is recovering, but tail risks have not been eliminated.”

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 23:00-00:00

1. The U.S. Supreme Court rules to expand the president’s power over financial regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, adding uncertainty to the regulation of cryptocurrencies and RWA tokenization.

2. Open-source AI platform Ollama completes a $65 million Series B round of funding, aiming to improve the usability of open-source models.

3. MARA plans to acquire a 2,000MW data center campus in Texas for up to $600 million, highlighting the trend toward the convergence of digital infrastructure and energy assets.

4. Market FUD sentiment toward SOL reaches its highest point of the year; trading volume drops to a low, and analysis suggests this is typically a bullish signal.

5. Micron Technology increases its U.S. investment plan to $250 billion, betting on strong demand for AI-driven memory/storage chips.

6. Zhang Xiaolong, founder of PuKou (Pencil), steps down from all positions due to personal matters. Vice President Sheng Haiyan takes over, marking the company’s shift from founder-led to professional-manager governance.

7. New Hampshire’s Executive Council rejects a $100 million proposal to support municipal bonds with Bitcoin, which would have become the world’s first of its kind.

8. Volkswagen Group of Germany plans to lay off up to 120,000 jobs globally; some German plants may face closure, while unions and the government oppose the move.

📡 Hourly News Update | 22:00-23:00

1. The Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.5%. Tech shares rebounded to offset Middle East tensions, but both Nvidia and Google shares fell by more than 2%.

2. Meta first launched its paid AI developer model, Muse Spark 1.1, priced at 25% of OpenAI and Anthropic models. The stock drop narrowed to 0.5%.

3. European startups raised $24 billion in Q2, up 66% year over year—its strongest quarter in four years. Zhaoxin Tech completed approximately RMB 7.6 billion in funding, with capital from the Alibaba ecosystem also participating.

4. US June existing home sales at an annualized pace of 4.09 million missed expectations. However, the median home price hit a record high of $440,600; initial jobless claims stayed near historic lows.

5. US listed storage chip stocks surged. Micron Technology and Western Digital jumped by more than 8%, while Dell’s share price spiked by over 5% in the short term.

6. In crypto, Robinhood listed the SENT token; Kraken listed SN51; and Sony Bank was approved to establish a stablecoin trust bank in the US.

7. In the US, legislation across multiple states tightened regulation on insurers using AI for health insurance claims, banning AI from fully replacing human determinations.

8. Hong Kong AI stocks diverged. MiniMax fell nearly 18% on its first day after the unlock, while Zhipu rose 13% after its unlock; liquidity and valuation premiums were repriced.

📡 Hourly News Broadcast | 21:00-22:00

1. Meta plans to ramp up production of its in-house AI chip Iris in September, targeting a doubling of compute power to 14 gigawatts by 2027. Micron will invest $3 billion to strengthen its chip supply chain, as the AI arms race heats up.

2. PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD officially launches on the Polygon network, leveraging low fees and high speed to drive payment and DeFi applications.

3. U.S. stocks open slightly higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises 4.32%, Micron Technology jumps more than 6%, and Applied Materials and Lam Research both gain over 10%. AI chip stocks lead the way.

4. Iran-related conflict has caused high market uncertainty. An EU commissioner warns that geopolitical tensions could affect global financial stability. Iran says that the Strait of Hormuz’ capacity has been restored to 50% of pre-war levels.

5. Micron Technology plans to invest more than $250 billion in the U.S. by 2035, raising its share of DRAM production capacity to 40%. The first wafer fab is expected to produce its first wafers in mid-2027.

6. A listed company purchased 110,000 bitcoins in Q2, a 1.8x increase quarter-over-quarter. Institutional interest continues to rise; Strategy has launched a native credit model for Bitcoin.

7. AI application company YanYu Technology completes a B+ round financing of nearly $300 million, while ZhiPing completes nearly RMB 5 billion in funding. Funding concentration among leading companies in the embodied intelligence track is increasing.

8. OpenAI releases the GPT-Live-1 voice model that can listen and speak in real time, and globally replaces ChatGPT’s advanced voice mode.

📡 Hourly Update | 20:00-21:00

1. The United States launches attacks on Iran’s key trade routes, heightening geopolitical tensions and causing a decline in shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz.

2. Meta plans to begin mass production of its in-house AI chip “Iris” in September to reduce reliance on external suppliers and optimize the cost of training AI models.

3. France’s antitrust investigation into Nvidia is nearing its end; Nvidia could face a fine of up to 10% of its global annual revenue.

4. First-time U.S. jobless claims of 215,000 came in below expectations, indicating the labor market remains strong.

5. Citigroup predicts the surge in memory prices will lead to a 15% decline in personal computer shipments in 2026 and a 12% drop in smartphone shipments.

6. Venture firm Paradigm completes a $1.2 billion fundraising round, expanding its investment focus from cryptocurrencies into artificial intelligence and robotics.

7. Bitcoin realized losses at the largest scale since December 2022; Glassnode data shows the market is currently in the late stage of bottoming out.

8. India отменяет partial import tariffs on some phone and electronic device components until March 2029, which could benefit Apple.

📡 On-the-hour update | 19:00-20:00

1. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announce a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to about 50% of pre-war levels, warning that any U.S. interference will trigger a devastating response; tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.

2. Crypto market volatility intensifies: if Ethereum falls below $1,664, the risk of liquidation for long positions on centralized exchanges could reach as high as $720 million; BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes received 223,700 USDC, signaling market maneuvering.

3. Surging investor interest in AI: Meta plans to produce its in-house AI chip “Iris” in September and will invest $9.0 billion to build AI data centers in Canada; Anthropic’s valuation in the secondary market has soared to $1.2 trillion.

4. In the stock market: AstraZeneca’s Phase 3 trial of its heart drug Wainua failed, causing its share price to plummet and market value to drop by about $27 billion; foreign investors such as Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered are optimistic about China’s stock market, overweighting A-shares.

5. Financing and M&A stay active: MasTec acquires The Superior Group for $1.65 billion to expand its data center market; Feikai Materials’ AI-powered semiconductor materials smart factory in Anhui begins production, with an annual output of 10,000 tons of EMC.

6. Frequent cybersecurity incidents: Gate confirms customer information was leaked and is advancing on-chain analysis; INTERPOL’s anti-scam operation found that crypto wallets were used to process $122.5 million in money laundering.

7. Macroeconomics and policy: the ECB’s June meeting minutes suggest its policy stance may be loosened; UK assets face heightened risk of volatility due to fiscal uncertainty.

8. Technology and innovation: Swift’s blockchain-based ledger enters pilot testing, with 17 banks to trial 24/7 cross-border payments; Unisoc releases its AI+AR eyeglasses Hawk series and computing units.

📡 On-the-Hour Update | 18:00-19:00

1. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fired ultra-heavy missiles at U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf. Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, which could disrupt global oil supplies and financial markets.

2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a record $2.7 billion streak of outflows, but they still recorded a net outflow of $85 million on Wednesday. The outlook for demand recovery remains unclear.

3. PepsiCo’s Q2 revenue beat expectations, with the pre-market stock price up about 2%. Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn Industrial Internet) expects first-half net profit to grow 93%-101% year over year, benefiting from growth in AI server revenue.

4. The Shenzhen municipal government emphasized proactively seizing opportunities from AI iteration, stepping up investment and deployment in key areas. In the UK, employers value AI skills over experience more when hiring.

5. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Peak Carbon Emissions Action Plan,” aiming to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17% in 2030 versus 2025.

6. Interpol carried out anti-social-engineering scam operations in 97 countries, arresting 5,811 suspects and seizing $293 million in illegal assets.

7. Volkswagen Group’s electrification transition has hit setbacks: global profit plunged 54%. The company plans to lay off 100,000 employees and close plants in Germany, while sales in China have declined.

8. BlackRock transferred about 951.5 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime, valued at $59 million, which may relate to institutional liquidity or ETF operations.

📡 Hourly News | 17:00-18:00

1. The National Marine Forecasting Center upgraded its sea-swell warning for the southern East China Sea due to Typhoon “Bavi” to an orange alert. The National Committee for Disaster Reduction and Relief increased its emergency response level to Level III, and Hangzhou initiated a Level IV typhoon-preparedness response.

2. Tenci Materials expects its net profit in the first half of 2026 to grow year over year by 908%-1,020%. MegaChips expects year-over-year growth of about 1,099%. The outlook benefits from strong demand for lithium battery materials and storage chips.

3. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality” action plan. By 2030, the share of non-fossil energy consumption is targeted to reach 25%, and carbon emissions per unit of GDP are to be reduced by 17% from the 2025 level.

4. Israel’s defense minister said the Israel Defense Forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed. Iran condemned U.S. forces’ strikes on its targets. Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices.

5. Bank of America reaffirmed its bullish stance on Nvidia, saying the market is over-concerned about HBM costs and ASIC competition, and that the current valuation is close to an 11-year low.

6. BYD Energy Storage signed an 11.275GWh energy storage agreement with Masdar of the UAE, providing solutions for the world’s largest solar-plus-storage project.

7. China’s domestic memory leader Changxin Technology has launched the procedures for a listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. The founder’s net worth could be around RMB 90 billion. Meanwhile, SambaNova completed the first round of a $1 billion financing at a valuation of $11 billion.

8. Luxshare Precision’s first day of trading in Hong Kong saw it fall below the issue price. Among investors who applied for shares via IPO subscriptions, those holding one-lot positions were down over HKD 300. Porsche’s first-half sales also declined year over year by 16% to 122,306 vehicles.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 16:00-17:00

1. SWIFT rolls out a blockchain ledger in partnership with 17 banks to pilot tokenized cross-border payments, marking an important step toward the convergence of traditional finance and asset tokenization.

2. Bitcoin and Ethereum balances on centralized exchanges fall to multi-year lows, indicating investors are shifting toward self-custody and reducing sell-pressure.

3. In the US stock pre-market, semiconductor, optical communication, and storage stocks collectively strengthen. Corning rises by over 5%, Micron by over 4%, and Direxion’s 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF jumps by more than 7% pre-market.

4. Gold rebounds to above $4,100, but a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve suppresses the upside outlook. WTI crude oil drops 3% intraday to $72.27 per barrel, with concerns about demand prospects intensifying.

5. ByteDance releases the Seedream 5.0 Pro image model, supporting precise editing and multilingual generation, leading performance across 17 test scenarios.

6. Huawei confirms the Mate 90 series will be released in September, featuring HarmonyOS 7 and a new Kirin chip, with a 53.5% increase in transistor density.

7. Tether mints an additional 1 billion USDT on the Tron network. The TRC20-USDT circulating supply surpasses 9.02 billion, setting a new high again.

8. Interpol carries out global anti-scam arrests of over 5,800 people, exposing cross-chain money-laundering networks and highlighting intensified crackdowns on crypto-related financial crimes.

📡 Top of the hour update | 15:00-16:00

1. Bitcoin’s price has broken through the $63,000 mark. Market sentiment is soaring, with a key resistance level at $63,000.

2. China A-share’s three major indices all rebounded collectively. The STAR Market 50 Index surged 8.41%. The semiconductor industry chain saw a breakout, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) hit a historical high.

3. OpenAI has rolled out an upgraded voice mode for ChatGPT, adding real-time conversation and visual response capabilities, aiming to rival Google Gemini Live.

4. Luxshare Precision’s first day trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange saw it trade below its issue price. Intraday losses briefly exceeded 7%. With net proceeds of about HK$24 billion, it became the largest IPO in Hong Kong this year.

5. China’s DRAM leader ChangXin Memory Technologies has kicked off its STAR Market IPO, planning to raise at least RMB 29.5 billion, which would make it the second-largest IPO on the STAR Market.

6. Major European stock indices opened higher across the board. Technology stocks rebounded, but geopolitical shocks triggered the largest selloff in months, and the market is now looking for signs of stabilization.

7. The Governor of the Bank of Korea called for advancing stablecoin legislation as soon as possible, advocating that banks lead issuance to strengthen oversight.

8. The Ministry of Finance will issue the 5th and 6th installments of 2026 savings bonds. The 3-year yield is 1.63% and the 5-year yield is 1.70%, with a total issuance of RMB 60 billion.

📡 8-Hour Recap | Jul 09, 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets have been violently roiled by multiple shocks: the U.S. military launched a large-scale strike on Iran; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt; and oil prices surged. Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed a hawkish shift, with the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 51.5%. China’s A-share STAR Market 50 index jumped more than 8% in the afternoon, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation’s market cap surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the new market leader. The crypto market was extremely volatile: after Bitcoin slid to the $60,000 support level, it rebounded.

Macroeconomy

1. The Fed’s June meeting minutes indicated unanimous agreement to keep interest rates unchanged, but some officials supported a rate hike. AI investment was listed for the first time as one of the three major inflation risks alongside the Middle East war and tariffs, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to 51.5%.

2. China’s June CPI rose 1.0% year over year, and PPI rose 4.1% year over year—both in line with expectations. The central bank’s quarterly meeting emphasized continuing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthening financial support for expanding domestic demand and for areas such as technological innovation.

3. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield rose to 2.885%, the highest level in 29 years and 8 months. The market worried that fiscal conditions are worsening. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell more than 20% from its June peak, entering a technical bear market.

4. Nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, issued guidance to support innovation in the retail sector—encouraging new, high-quality retail enterprises to list and issue REITs, and promoting the use of the digital RMB.

5. The National Essential Medicines List was updated to 794 items, adding 68 chemical drugs and biologics, including four domestically developed Class I new drugs, to take effect on September 1.

Crypto Market

1. After Bitcoin bounced off the $60,000 support level, in the past 24 hours the total liquidations across the entire network reached $331 million. The Crypto Fear Index fell to 21, showing investors’ sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $143 million in a single day as institutions bought on dips. Bitwise filed an application for a Solana ETF. Meanwhile, the U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net outflow of $7.29 million.

3. A whale closed a $100 million BTC short position, profiting $5.28 million. A new wallet withdrew 500 BTC from Binance (about $31.15 million). A wallet believed to be from Multicoin Capital sold 167,000 HYPE via Galaxy Digital.

4. Alpha Bank, the largest private bank in Russia, plans to launch crypto-related services. Kazakhstan plans legislation to allow companies to use stablecoins for cross-border payments. Sony received conditional approval from the U.S. OCC and plans to launch a stablecoin trust bank in 2027.

5. DeFi aggregator Zapper announced it will completely shut down on August 3. Users need to withdraw funds and data in advance. Coinbase received authorization from the UK regulator and plans to launch stock and derivatives trading services.

AI Technology

1. OpenAI released a full-duplex speech model, GPT-Live, and significantly advanced the GPT-6 release plan to within this month. Google is testing an individual AI agent codenamed Remy in the Gemini app, which can execute multi-step tasks autonomously.

2. AI chip startup Positron is in talks for about $750 million in financing. Its valuation could reach as high as $5 billion, challenging Nvidia’s position. Nvidia and Hugging Face are collaborating to develop open-source robot models.

3. Leading model companies such as DeepSeek and Zhipu began developing their own AI chips, signaling that AI competition is shifting from the model layer to a full-stack war across chips, models, and cloud.

4. Meta announced it will invest $10 billion to build what it calls the largest overseas data center in Canada, and plans to sell AI compute capacity and model access rights. Capital Power and Meta signed a long-term energy supply agreement to provide 250 MW of capacity for the data center.

5. Ant Lingbo open-sourced the world’s first video base model for embodied intelligence, LingBot-Video, based on a MoE architecture. With a total of 30B parameters, inference efficiency improves by about 3x. SiliconFlow achieved its first net profit of roughly $204 million to $212 million, marking the first profitable milestone in the AI drug discovery industry.

Geopolitics

1. The U.S. military launched a large-scale strike on Iran, hitting more than 80 targets. Iran attacked Kuwait and Bahrain; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stalled. WTI crude rose about 4.4%, and Brent crude briefly broke above $80.

2. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the U.S., saying that if the U.S. dares to strike Iran, it will retaliate. He emphasized that passage rights through the Strait of Hormuz are decided by Iran. Trump revealed that Iran had recently proactively contacted the U.S. to seek an agreement, but the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is precarious.

3. South Korea’s Supreme Court’s constitutional division issued a third-round verdict regarding former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s alleged interference in an arrest case, sentencing him to 7 years in prison—marking the first third-round judgment related to Yoon’s emergency martial law incident.

4. Torrential rains in Nanning, Guangxi caused a breach at the Liulan Reservoir, resulting in flooding. The disaster has left 39 dead and 9 missing. Authorities have relocated and resettled 64,500 people. The gap and water flow have been basically stable.

Stock Markets & Commodities

1. China’s three major A-share indexes rose then pulled back, but the STAR Market 50 index surged more than 8% in the afternoon. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation’s market cap surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become a new A-share leader, with semiconductor chip stocks leading gains. After the Hang Seng Tech Index in Hong Kong rose 4.97%, it also surged and then retreated.

2. Spot gold broke through $4,100 to set a record high, driven by safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty. The shipping index (Europe route) futures fell by more than 40% from its June high; the benchmark contract dropped 8% within the day.

3. Most domestic futures benchmark contracts fell. The Europe route shipping index dropped more than 7%, lithium carbonate fell nearly 6%, and Shanghai silver fell nearly 5%. Low-sulfur fuel oil rose more than 6%, and WTI crude in Shanghai (SC crude) rose nearly 6%.

4. Southbound capital net bought Hong Kong stocks totaling HK$11 billion. Trading value on both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded RMB 2 trillion, expanding by more than RMB 38 billion versus the prior trading day. Bain Capital cleared all of its shares in QTL and benefited from the AI boom as the stock price skyrocketed more than 4,000%.

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📡 Hourly News Update | 14:00-15:00

1. The 科创50 index surged more than 8% in the afternoon; Semiconductor Chip stocks led the rally. The market cap of SMIC surpassed that of Kweichow Moutai to become the new headline giant of A-shares.

2. Spot gold broke through $4,100 to set a historic high, driven by safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty.

3. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $143 million in a single day, as institutions bought the dip. Bitwise has submitted an application for a Solana ETF.

4. Iran’s military announced strikes against multiple U.S. military bases across the Middle East, escalating geopolitical tensions.

5. Nvidia and Hugging Face are collaborating to develop open-source robot models. Demand for AI computing continues to surge, and module demand is expected to skyrocket to 40 million units.

6. A $100 million BTC short position by a “giant whale” was closed in profit of $5.28 million. A new wallet withdrew 500 BTC from Binance (about $31.15 million).

7. Google is testing a personal AI agent codenamed Remy in the Gemini app, which can independently execute multi-step tasks.

8. In June, China’s domestic retail gasoline passenger car sales plunged 39%. The penetration rate of new energy reached 62.8%, and new energy vehicles have become the market’s dominant force.

📡 On-the-hour News Briefing | 13:00-14:00

1. The Fed’s June minutes show officials shifting hawkish, and if inflation remains stubbornly high, rate hikes could be restarted. The probability of a September rate hike rose to 51.5%, and Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2027.

2. Meta announced a $10 billion investment to build Canada’s largest overseas data center and plans to sell AI compute power and model access rights. This has triggered market concerns about AI hardware supply-and-demand logic, sending Nvidia’s stock price down sharply.

3. Hong Kong chip stocks surged rapidly in the afternoon. Chip intelligence Holdings rose more than 24%, Zhaoyi Innovation climbed over 17%, SMIC increased more than 9%, the STAR 50 index jumped more than 4%, and advanced packaging concepts kept rising.

4. South Korea’s Supreme Court has delivered its third verdict in the case involving former president Yoon Suk Yeol alleged to have obstructed an arrest. He was sentenced to seven years in prison—his first third-trial judgment related to the emergency martial law incident.

5. Trump revealed that Iran had recently proactively reached out to seek an agreement. However, the Greenland itinerary remains undecided. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is precarious, and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill.

6. Torrential rain in Nanning, Guangxi caused a breach at the Liulan Reservoir, leading to flooding. The disaster has left 39 people dead and 9 missing. A total of 64,500 people have been relocated and resettled. The shortfalls and water flow have remained basically stable.

7. Kai-Fu Lee led Zero One Wanwu to abandon training trillion-parameter base models and fully pivot to enterprise AI decision-making systems. The order value grew from 500 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a target IPO in 2027.

8. Southbound capital net bought 11 billion Hong Kong dollars. Trading value across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, up by more than 38 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 12:00-13:00

1. Hong Kong stocks opened strong in the morning but then pulled back. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.78%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.06%. Most technology stocks turned lower, while semiconductor chip stocks stayed active.

2. Goldman Sachs released a report expressing optimism about China’s AI industrial chain, saying it has room for valuation to rise, unique competitive advantages, and structural increases in capital allocation, making it one of the most compelling growth stories at present.

3. The National Essential Medicines List has been updated to 794 items. It adds 68 chemical drugs and biological products, including 4 domestically developed Class I new drugs, to take effect on September 1.

4. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated again. The U.S. military launched a new round of strikes against Iran. Iran attacked Kuwait and Bahrain. Gold-related stocks and airline stocks plunged, while oil prices saw heightened volatility.

5. Ant’s Lingbo has open-sourced the world’s first video foundation model for embodied intelligence, LingBot-Video. Built on an MoE architecture with 30B parameters, it improves inference efficiency by about 3x.

6. Yesterday, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $84.9 million. The Crypto Fear Index dropped to 21, indicating investors’ sentiment is extremely bearish.

7. Loongson Technology (Loongson Zhongke) established a wholly owned subsidiary in Shenzhen with a registered capital of 20 million RMB, expanding software development, AI, and chip design business.

8. South Korea’s KOSPI index widened its decline to 2%. Samsung Electronics fell 2.5%, pressured by the Middle East situation and weakness in tech stocks.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 11:00-12:00

1. The U.S. military launched strikes on about 90 military targets along Iran’s coastline. The situation in the Middle East has escalated. Goldman Sachs expects that if negotiations continue, oil supply in the Persian Gulf could recover by the end of July.

2. South Korea’s KOSPI index surged during the day before turning back down. It fell below 7,100 points, with the intraday decline widening to 2% after having risen more than 4% earlier.

3. Most domestic futures benchmark contracts fell. The Europe shipping line freight index dropped more than 7%, lithium carbonate fell nearly 6%, and Shanghai silver fell nearly 5%. Low-sulfur fuel oil rose more than 6%, while SC crude oil rose nearly 6%.

4. OpenAI will publicly release its GPT 5.6 model series on Thursday, and will significantly advance its GPT-6 release plans, aiming to compete with Anthropic.

5. For the first time, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes listed the AI investment boom as one of three inflation risks on par with the Middle East war and tariffs, suggesting that if inflation remains persistently high, the Fed may raise rates.

6. Sony received conditional approval from the U.S. OCC. It plans to launch a stablecoin trust bank in 2027 to enter the digital asset space.

7. The National Healthcare Security Administration said that in 2025, newly added nationally negotiated drugs had covered 310,000 designated medical and pharmaceutical institutions, and that the rollout of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog is in line with expectations.

8. CATL reported 722 billion yuan in 2025 net profit, but raised salaries for frontline employees by only 150 yuan, sparking widespread discussion about how tech companies distribute profits.

📡 Hourly Updates | 10:00-11:00

1. Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned the United States, saying that if the U.S. dares to attack Iran, Iran will retaliate. He also stressed that the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz is determined by Iran, and that geopolitical tensions have driven up oil prices.

2. Three major A-share indices surged and then retreated, collectively turning negative. The ChiNext Index had earlier risen by nearly 1.8%. More than 3,200 stocks declined; sectors such as lithium mining and rare-earth permanent magnets led the losses.

3. Top AI model companies such as DeepSeek and Zhipu (GLM) have begun developing their own AI chips, signaling that AI competition is shifting from the model level to a full-stack “chip–model–cloud” battle.

4. Southbound capital today net bought Hong Kong stocks worth HKD 8 billion, indicating that mainland funds continue to flow into the Hong Kong stock market.

5. Capital Power and Meta signed a long-term energy supply agreement to provide Meta with 250 megawatts of capacity for its data centers in Alberta, with commissioning expected in the second half of 2028.

6. South Korea’s KOSPI index surged and then pulled back. After rising by more than 4% earlier, gains narrowed to 0.2%. Samsung Electronics fell 0.54%.

7. Data from China’s National Healthcare Security Administration shows that, as of the end of May, the number of people enrolled in basic medical insurance nationwide increased year over year by more than 4 million, and the enrollment rate remained stable at 95%.

8. The container freight index (Europe line) main contract fell 8% intraday to 2,342.0 points. The market remains uncertain about the outlook for shipping demand.

📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 09:00-10:00

1. OpenAI releases a full-duplex voice model, GPT-Live. Users report that its frequent responses are annoying, while the release of GPT-6 has been brought forward significantly to within this month.

2. The United States launches a new round of strikes on Iran. Oil prices jump accordingly: WTI crude falls 1.4% to $74.23, while SC crude’s gain expands to 6.01%.

3. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. In the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network totaled $331 million. Users lost nearly 1 million USDT after signing a phishing token authorization contract.

4. Tech giants such as ByteDance make organizational structure adjustments. As AI technology weakens the value of middle-layer information relay, management-focused middle layers are reduced or phased out.

5. China’s June CPI year over year rises 1.0%, and PPI year over year increases 4.1%. The data meets expectations, and the market reaction is steady.

6. Hong Kong stocks open mixed. The Hang Seng Index slips slightly by 0.07%, the Tech Index rises 0.29%. Zhipu AI stocks surge more than 17%, and storage-related themes rebound.

7. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rises to 2.885%, the highest in 29 years and 8 months, as market concerns grow that fiscal conditions will deteriorate.

8. Insilico Intelligence releases a profit guidance update for the first half of 2026. It achieves, for the first time, net profit of approximately $204 million to $212 million, marking the first profitability milestone in the AI-driven pharmaceutical industry.

📡 Hourly News Report | 08:00-09:00

1. The U.S. military launches a large-scale strike against Iran, hitting more than 80 targets. Iran will retaliate against U.S. bases. International oil prices surge sharply, and the Strait of Hormuz sees oil tanker traffic stall.

2. Korea’s KOSPI index opens up more than 3%. SK Hynix rises over 9%. Driven by concerns in the semiconductor industry and the impact of the Middle East situation, the index has fallen more than 20% from its June peak, entering a technical bear market.

3. Bitcoin drops to the $60,000 support level. With oil prices spiking and risks to Japan’s economy, on-chain data shows that selling pressure from long-term holders and ongoing net outflows from spot ETFs have continued.

4. AI chip startup Positron plans to raise $750 million, with a valuation potentially reaching up to $5 billion, reflecting strong investor interest in AI hardware.

5. Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issue guidance supporting innovation-driven development in the retail sector. They encourage new and high-quality retail businesses to list and issue REITs, and promote the use of the digital yuan.

6. Bain Capital sells all its holdings in Japanese memory chip maker Kioxia. Kioxia’s stock price jumps 8%.

7. Amazon is secretly advancing its Alexa agent program. OpenAI will release GPT-5.6. A new trend in the AI industry shows companies competing for influence by setting up AI certification systems.

8. Alfa Bank, the largest private bank in Russia, plans to launch cryptocurrency services. Kazakhstan is considering legislation to allow companies to use stablecoins for cross-border payments.

📡 8-Hour Recap | 07/09 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets were dominated by a sharply escalated U.S.-Iran military standoff. The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran for two consecutive nights; Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz; and international oil prices surged by more than 8%. Brent crude broke above $80. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed growing concerns about inflation, easing rate-cut expectations, and a mixed performance in U.S. stocks—tech shares rebounded while the Dow fell hard. In the AI sector, financing and product launches remained active: OpenAI rolled out the GPT-Live real-time voice model, and Nvidia’s stock rose against the trend.

Macroeconomy & Geopolitics

1. Rapid escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict: The U.S. military conducted airstrikes against Iran for two consecutive nights, targeting Revolutionary Guard radar and missile sites. Iran said the strikes killed 8 service members and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz as retaliation, with shipping through the strait nearly at a standstill.

2. International oil prices surge: WTI crude futures jumped more than 8% to $76 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 8.62% to $80.55 per barrel. Shanghai’s main crude contract rose 8%. Russia’s diesel export ban continues through July 31, and U.S. diesel futures’ intraday gain widened to 13%.

3. Fed June meeting minutes show officials have widened their disagreement on inflation and the rate outlook: some officials support rate hikes; market expectations for a September hike intensified; the probability that rates will be held unchanged in July is 69%.

4. U.S. May consumer credit unexpectedly fell by $180 million, the first decline since 2024, far below expectations—raising concerns about slower economic growth.

5. U.S. stocks ended mixed: the Dow fell 1.09%, the Nasdaq rose 0.2%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.28%. Hong Kong stocks rebounded sharply, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 4.97%.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin faces pressure, driven by the spike in oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions. It pulled back to around $62,000. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network totaled $387 million, with long positions dominating.

2. On-chain data shows large amounts of Bitcoin and other crypto flowing into exchanges. XRP is under pressure. Bitcoin spot trading volume share rose to about 67%, indicating a shift toward risk-averse behavior in the market.

3. The chair of the U.S. CFTC clearly stated that the U.S. will never issue a central bank digital currency, and urged Congress to pass a bill on the crypto market structure before the August recess. The EU plans to expand the scope of MiCA regulation.

4. The tokenized real-world assets market’s total scale exceeded $3.86 billion in June. Tokenized stock trading volume in June hit a record high of $3.4 billion, with Solana holding more than 90% of the share.

5. A crypto company under the Trump family, AI Financial, plans to sell its core business. SPAC backed by Cantor is renegotiating merger terms with a Bitcoin company.

AI & Technology

1. OpenAI introduced a next-generation voice model, GPT-Live, for global ChatGPT users. The backend uses GPT-5.5 and supports real-time conversations and interruption. It also won a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense.

2. Nvidia launched the Vera CPU for AI agent workloads. The stock jumped more than 3.65%. AI chip startup Positron is currently in talks for about $750 million in financing, with a valuation that could reach $5 billion.

3. Musk announced that Grok’s 200B-parameter AI model will launch next month. SpaceXAI released the Grok 4.5 model, priced at $2 per million tokens for input.

4. Meta announced plans to invest about $9 billion in Alberta, Canada, to build its first data center with capacity of 1GW to support AI business expansion.

5. China plans to allow some top AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips. Kuaishou plans to spin off its AI video generation business for separate financing, with a valuation of $18 billion.

Market Sentiment & Key Focus

Market sentiment is highly split: geopolitical tensions are boosting risk-off sentiment and energy shares surged, but tech stocks rebounded against the trend on AI-related narratives. The crypto market is under pressure, with capital concentrating into Bitcoin. In the short term, attention centers on whether the U.S.-Iran conflict will escalate further, how oil price moves will affect inflation and Fed policy, and ongoing waves of financing and product innovation in the AI space.