RecodeX

📡 Hourly News Update | 21:00-22:00

1. The Bank of Israel will cut the benchmark interest rate from 3.75% to 3.50%, in line with expectations. It is also forecast that GDP growth will be 4.0% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.

2. Strategy Inc. sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin last week, the largest scale sale since 2020. Digital asset losses in the second quarter totaled $8.32 billion, and the stock fell by more than 5% before the market opened.

3. Microsoft announced layoffs of about 6,400 employees, with half coming from the Xbox gaming division. The job cuts involve reorganization of sales and gaming businesses, and the stock dropped by about 2%.

4. All three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s gain widened to over 3.5%. Broadcom rose more than 6%, and Western Digital climbed more than 8%, boosted by AI demand and an Apple partnership extended through 2031.

5. Trump delivered remarks at the White House, praising the Trump account project and commending Dell. Dell’s stock surged by more than 3% in the short term.

6. Saudi Aramco will cut the official selling price for crude oil exports to Asia in August by $11, the largest reduction in 26 years. The market views this as a signal of a price war, and expectations of looser supply are rising.

7. In June, the UAE increased its crude oil production to more than 3.8 million barrels per day, nearing a historical peak. After exiting OPEC, output rose sharply.

8. Meng Fanli, Deputy Secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and Governor, investigated the artificial intelligence industry in Guangzhou. He emphasized accelerating high-level applications across the entire region, around the clock, and across all industries, to drive high-quality development of the sector.

📡 Top-of-the-hour briefing | 20:00-21:00

1. Broadcom and Apple sign a new multi-year agreement, extending their technology collaboration through 2031. Broadcom will develop custom ASIC chips for Apple, and the pre-market share price rises by more than 4%.

2. Saudi Aramco cuts the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for exports to Asia in August by $11 per barrel, the largest decline in at least 26 years, in response to a global surge in supply.

3. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange reports abnormal trading volatility in the stock of China Gong Education. Regulatory measures have been taken against relevant investors, such as suspending trading, reminding investors to trade in compliance and with caution.

4. This year’s lists of “two major” infrastructure projects have all been issued. A total of RMB 8 trillion in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been allocated to support the construction of 1,417 major projects.

5. Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, raising about $216 million. In the second quarter, unrealized losses reached $8.31 billion.

6. Morgan Stanley strategists say it may be difficult for U.S. stocks to make new highs in the near term. Funds are rotating from chip stocks to AI cloud service providers, with a bullish outlook on Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

7. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announce the resumption of service on part of the Suez Canal routes. Analysts believe this is the first step toward a full return to the Red Sea.

8. In a new industry announcement, the company says that its actual controller, Weng Xanding, has been placed under “retention for investigation.” The company also states that since 2021 he has not held any position, and that this does not affect production and operations.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 19:00-20:00

1. SK hynix launches a U.S. listing pitch, with an offering size of about $28 billion. It is expected to rank among the top three largest IPOs in global history and has received oversubscription.

2. The full-fledged surge in storage chip prices is fully filtering through to consumer markets. The price of a 1TB solid-state drive has risen from RMB 500 to RMB 1,000, and demand for AI compute power is expected to keep squeezing production capacity through 2027.

3. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Cleveland Clinic, and IBM achieve, for the first time, fusion-materials computing on a quantum computer, marking a major technical breakthrough.

4. In the first half of 2026, global activist investors launched 184 rights-protection actions, up 20% year over year, setting a new historical record.

5. Tencent seeks to sell its stake in Kuaishou, with proceeds of up to about $1.6 billion. It plans to cut holdings by about 273 million shares via block trades.

6. The UK Financial Conduct Authority plans to expand its regulatory powers, covering major tech firms developing finance-related AI such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

7. Goldman Sachs raises its target price for AMD to $640 and for Qualcomm to $180, bullish on the semiconductor industry outlook.

8. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s U.S. dollar gold futures daytime trading hits a record high of 6,676 contracts, with market participation significantly increasing.

📡 Hourly News | 18:00-19:00

1. Uniscope Technology’s S&T Innovation Board IPO registration has become effective. The company expects to raise RMB 4.202 billion, with an estimated listing valuation of about RMB 42 billion.

2. SK hynix issues ADS on the U.S. stock market. Cornerstone investors intend to subscribe for up to USD 7 billion, with net proceeds of about USD 28 billion to be used for capital expenditures and the procurement of EUV lithography machines.

3. Maersk announced that AE15 Gemini services have resumed sailing through the Suez Canal, and the stock price once fell by more than 8%.

4. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has initiated a Level-II emergency flood-response for Guangxi. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management have urgently pre-allocated RMB 160 million in disaster-relief funds.

5. COSCO Shipping Holdings plans to repurchase A-share shares for RMB 770 million to RMB 1.54 billion, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled and registered capital reduced.

6. Tencent releases the official version of its three HunYuan (Hunyuan) models. Yuánbǎo has been integrated and a free Agent feature has gone live.

7. Tianhua Group expects net profit in the first half to increase year-on-year by 710% to 857%, benefiting from higher lithium salt prices and increased sales volume.

8. Hamas announces the dissolution of its wartime emergency administration in Gaza, transferring administrative and civil management powers to the Palestinian technical bureaucracy committee.

📡 Hourly News Update | 17:00-18:00

1. Yang Youlin, former executive deputy director of the Nanjing Economic and Technological Development Zone Administration, was sentenced to death in the first instance for accepting bribes worth over RMB 2.2 billion, along with six other charges, and his personal property will be confiscated in full.

2. In the first phase of the Cyberspace Administration of China’s special campaign “Clear Up Chaos: Rectify Irregularities in AI Applications,” more than 14,000 non-compliant AI products have been disposed of, and over 6 million pieces of违规 content have been removed.

3. Wanhua Chemical expects net profit in the first half to increase by 60%-70% year over year. The main drivers are a sharp surge in global chemical raw-material prices and improved cost advantages from ethylene unit upgrades.

4. The national three-yuan-swine average price has risen for nearly 10 consecutive days, up 16.8% in total. After four months, it has returned to the threshold of RMB 10 per kilogram, and the livestock sector is broadly in the green.

5. Ukraine’s military says it has launched attacks on oil refinery facilities in the Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions of Russia. Russia claims that the Leningrad Region was hit by drone attacks, causing damage to port facilities.

6. Avision Holdings (a.k.a. ViewSonic/???), expects its net profit for the first half to increase by 264%-315% year over year, benefiting from growth in its intelligent control component business and investment income from companies it has co-invested in that have gone public.

7. Microsoft Teams has introduced a new strategy: when third-party AI robots join a meeting, they must be approved by the organizer to strengthen access and permission management.

8. Southbound funds today made a large net buy of HKD 20.528 billion, the highest single-day level in nearly one and a half months. The Tracker Fund (ETF) and Tencent Holdings received substantial net buys.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 16:00-17:00

1. Hong Kong stocks: the Hang Seng Index rose 1.14%. Tech stocks rebounded—Kuaishou gained nearly 8%, and Tencent rose more than 4%. However, Zhipu AI, an LLM company, fell more than 14%, while PCB-related stocks saw Jiannuo/Kingboard-related shares? decline—specifically, Grand Tech? (Jiandu? actually “建滔积层板”) fell over 12%.

2. Ahead of the open, US stock storage-chip stocks rebounded. SanDisk jumped more than 6%, and Micron Technology rose more than 3%. Previously, SK Hynix reduced the size of its ADR fundraising to $28 billion, and received $7 billion in subscription intent.

3. Goldman Sachs lowered its aluminum price forecast, citing faster-than-expected recovery in Middle East supply. It expects the global aluminum market deficit to narrow sharply to 100,000 tonnes by 2026, and LME aluminum inventories to fall by 3,225 tonnes.

4. According to reports, Luxshare Precision plans to price its Hong Kong IPO at the upper offer price of HK$63.28 per share, raising about HK$24.3 billion. It is expected to become Hong Kong’s largest IPO this year.

5. On the eve of the NATO summit, US media reported that Trump wants to turn NATO into a “cash machine,” urging allies to increase defense spending, and plans to speak with Putin after meeting with Zelensky.

6. In the eurozone, the July Sentix investor confidence index rose to -3.1, significantly better than the forecast of -10 and up from the previous -13.4. In the UK, the June construction PMI fell to 38.4.

7. Xinfengming expects first-half net profit to grow 94.59%–111.51% year over year, mainly due to a rebound in industry momentum and a widening product price spread. Kewaer announced price increases of 5%–10% for some power supply products.

8. The Tianwen-2 probe successfully arrived at its scheduled position at asteroid 2016 HO3 and will begin its exploration and sampling mission. Meanwhile, a prison riot in Sri Lanka left 25 people dead.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 15:00-16:00

1. China’s three major A-share indexes all closed lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.16%, and the ChiNext Price Index declined 1.77%. Sectors such as pork and coal, as well as innovative drugs, strengthened against the trend, while robot-related and PCB concept stocks saw sharp pullbacks.

2. China’s domestic commodity futures closed with more contracts rising than falling. Egg futures gained over 4%, and tin futures on the Shanghai exchange rose more than 3%. Containerized freight on the Europe route fell more than 4%, while lithium carbonate and dried jujube dropped over 2%.

3. The first Global Dialogue on AI Governance was held in Geneva, focusing on four priority areas: AI opportunities, capacity building, security and trustworthiness, and human rights oversight.

4. Tencent released its Hunyuan Hy3 model officially. Its performance is comparable to a flagship model with parameter scale 2–5 times larger. The model has already been open-sourced, and its API pricing has been further reduced.

5. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the reported test firing of China’s submarine-launched strategic missiles by China’s Navy, saying it is part of routine annual military training and is not targeted at any specific country or target.

6. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to the European craze for China’s heat-protection and cooling products, stating that products that meet demand and offer good value naturally become popular, and that China–EU trade is mutually beneficial and win–win.

7. A former Japanese official in charge of foreign exchange affairs said the yen is undervalued by as much as 20%, warning that short-sellers should be careful about the risk of intervention. Goldman Sachs also cut its 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $2,950 per metric ton.

8. Baodi Mining expects net profit to increase by 189%–210% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly due to stronger international gold prices and the sale of newly added gold and polymetallic concentrate/powder from its subsidiaries.

📡 8-hour Review | July 06, 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed clear divergence. South Korea’s stock market surged nearly 3% at one point boosted by improving expectations for semiconductor chip company earnings, but then sharply plunged. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system, Kyber NVL144, was delayed to 2028 due to manufacturing challenges, sending the industry chain into turmoil. In commodities, gold rose above $4,200, hitting a two-week high, driven by risk-off sentiment. The Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin fell to extreme negative territory, hinting that a bottom may be near. Geopolitically, Kyiv in Ukraine was hit by missile strikes, and large-scale airstrikes by Russian forces caused multiple casualties. China’s Navy successfully tested a submarine-launched strategic missile. Overall, market sentiment is cautious, volatility in tech stocks increased, and capital rotated toward defensive sectors such as gold and innovative pharmaceuticals.

Macroeconomy

1. The central bank conducted a RMB 7-billion, 7-day reverse repo operation and an RMB 1-trillion unilateral reverse repo operation. Net liquidity injection for the day was RMB 49.5 billion, keeping overall liquidity reasonably ample.

2. Germany’s May seasonally adjusted factory orders rose 1.9% month-over-month, well above the expected 1.1%, indicating resilience in European manufacturing.

3. Goldman Sachs sharply cut its forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate to 165, saying the interest-rate differential between the US and Japan and Japan’s slow pace of rate hikes will continue to pressure the yen.

4. Singapore’s May retail sales fell to 3% year-over-year, below the prior figure of 5.4%, suggesting weakening momentum in consumer recovery.

5. China Bank resumed issuing 5-year personal large-denomination time deposits, with an annualized yield of 1.55%-1.6%, reflecting banks’ need for stable long-term funding.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio dropped below -20, and the miner stress index hit a historical low. Historical patterns suggest the price may be approaching a bottom.

2. Bitcoin’s “bottom-picking” index, AHR999, fell to 0.32, near historical lows, indicating extreme pessimism in the market.

3. A report by The New York Times said nearly one million investors suffered cumulative losses of $3.81 billion due to TRUMP meme coins.

4. Expectations for Fed rate hikes cooled. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold continued their rebound, though overall trading activity remained thin.

AI Technology

1. Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system Kyber NVL144 was delayed to 2028 because of PCB manufacturing issues. This gives competitors such as AMD room to surpass. PCB-related stocks collectively plunged.

2. Samsung Electronics expects operating profit in the second quarter to surge about 18 times year over year. SK hynix has kicked off an approximately $28-billion U.S. listing plan, upgrading the HBM race.

3. Meituan officially open-sourced its trillion-parameter model LongCat-2.0 and simultaneously released inference code optimized for domestically available computing power, lowering deployment barriers.

4. An international research team used AI to discover two new types of superconductors, providing new avenues for finding room-temperature superconducting materials.

5. Huawei’s Mate 90 series is expected to adopt a new Kirin chip based on the “law of compaction” (韬定律) and use logic folding technology, with a major performance boost.

Geopolitics

1. Multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Russian forces launched ballistic missiles that caused casualties. Russia also fired 68 missiles and launched 351 drones into Ukraine overnight.

2. China’s Navy successfully organized a test launch of a submarine-launched strategic missile, firing missiles carrying training simulated warheads into relevant high seas areas in the Pacific. The relevant countries were notified in advance.

3. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that regardless of whether the US and Iran reach a deal, Israel will oppose Iran’s nuclear program.

4. The funeral ceremony for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Khamenei was held in Tehran, with millions of mourners attending.

5. Iraq’s cabinet approved research into a strategic oil export pipeline project’s preliminary agreement. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August.

Market Sentiment and Key Focus

Overall, sentiment is cautious and slightly bearish. Tech stocks are seeing higher volatility, and funds are rotating into defensive sectors such as gold and innovative drugs. Key areas to watch: the ripple effects from Nvidia’s delayed event on the AI industry chain, signals of stabilization after the sharp volatility in South Korean chip stocks, and the impact of geopolitical developments on energy and safe-haven assets.

📡 Hourly News | 14:00-15:00

1. Germany: After seasonally adjusting in May, factory orders rose 1.9% month over month, far exceeding expectations of 1.1%, compared with the prior -3.8%.

2. A-share EDA-related concepts surged across the board. Gigade Electronic hit the 20cm daily limit-up, and Huada JiuTian rose nearly 15%, boosted by Huawei’s release of the “Taoding Law” V2 version.

3. TrendForce data shows demand for high-end AI MLCC has surged sharply. Orders and shipments from Japanese and Korean giants such as Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics hit new highs, and the risk of shortages is increasing in the second half of the year.

4. SK hynix is set to list on Nasdaq on July 10, raising $29 billion, the largest-scale foreign company IPO in U.S. history.

5. In the first half of the year, the number of financing events for brain-computer interface in Shanghai accounted for nearly 60% of the national total, with the number of concentrated companies making up one-third of the nationwide figure.

6. Spot gold broke below $4,150, falling more than 0.6% during the day. JPMorgan lowered its Q4 gold price target to $4,500.

7. Sullivan’s report shows that Alibaba Cloud leads China’s full-stack AI cloud services market with a 40.1% market share, with revenue of RMB 23.9 billion.

8. Porsche is considering further layoffs of 4,000 jobs in Germany and will stop accepting personalized customization orders for new fully electric Macan and Taycan vehicles.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 13:00-14:00

1. China’s navy successfully organized a submerged launch test of a strategic ballistic missile. It launched a missile carrying a training-simulated warhead into related international waters in the Pacific Ocean, and the relevant countries were notified in advance.

2. The Huawei Mate 90 series is expected to feature a new Kirin chip based on the “Taoding Law,” using logical folding technology, with significantly improved performance.

3. Wallennium Technology, an AI chip company in Shanghai, raised about US$892.5 million through a new share offering to expand GPU production. Its stock price has risen by more than 150% since its IPO.

4. Analog Devices (ADI), a leading maker of analog chips, issued a notice letter stating that demand has rebounded, tightening supply. For some products, delivery lead times can be as long as six months.

5. South Korea has decided to build a new chip industrial park in Gwangju and speed up the construction progress of the chip factory project in Yongin.

6. The world’s largest 3D printing manufacturing center will be established in Shenzhen. Ztubo Technology, via its subsidiary, won the industrial land for RMB 141.2 million.

7. Russian attacks on Kyiv resulted in 9 deaths and 46 injuries, with multiple residential buildings damaged. During the night, Russian forces launched 68 missiles and 351 drones at Ukraine.

8. In Singapore, May’s retail sales rose 3% year-on-year, below the prior 5.40%. Month-on-month it was -2.3%, with the previous figure revised to 0.4%.

📡 Hourly News Update | 12:00-13:00

1. Guangxi is hit by Typhoon “Maysak,” with ongoing heavy rainfall. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Water Resources have upgraded their flood-control emergency response to Level III/II. Places including Nanning and Hengzhou have raised their response to Level I, and 65 rivers are above warning levels.

2. During the midday trading session in Hong Kong stocks, the three major indexes surged. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.83%, the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.16%, Tencent rose more than 3.8%, and sectors such as innovative drugs and power equipment stayed active. However, PCB-related concepts fell, dragged down by Nvidia-related negative news.

3. News in the humanoid robotics sector is coming in thick and fast: The CEO of Robo Party said the industry currently has a valuation bubble; Nomura estimates that for every 100,000 units shipped in 2026, 10 million training hours will be required; and companies such as Enforce Shares and Shanglu Electronic have disclosed progress in related business.

4. International research teams used AI to discover two new types of superconductors, opening a new path in the search for room-temperature superconducting materials. This could help reduce energy consumption in fields such as computing and power transmission.

5. Goldman Sachs has sharply cut its forecast for the yen versus the US dollar to 165, saying that the interest-rate spread between the US and Japan and Japan’s central bank’s slow pace of rate hikes are driving the yen to keep weakening. The US dollar/yen rose 0.3% to 161.93.

6. The funeral ceremony for the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was held in Tehran, attended by millions of mourners. Burial rites will follow in Qom and Mashhad.

7. South Korean lawmakers warned that the KOSPI index “has become a casino,” urging the delisting of leveraged ETFs. They are concerned these products amplify market volatility and consume corporate value.

8. JD.com acquired a Hong Kong student dormitory property in Yau Ma Tei for HK$750 million. Far East Development has pledged to provide a guaranteed annual revenue of HK$45 million each year for three years, implying an annualized return rate of about 6%.

📡 Hourly News Update | 11:00-12:00

1. Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system, Kyber NVL144, is delayed to 2028 due to challenges in PCB manufacturing. This sparked a collective plunge among PCB concept stocks, with Topband (Dengta?) Accumulated Layered Board falling by more than 18% at one point.

2. Hong Kong stock tech stocks surged: Tencent rose by over 5%, southbound capital net bought more than HK$10 billion, and the STAR 50 Index rebounded in a V-shape, up nearly 2%.

3. The storage chip sector rebounded in a V-shape. Huahong Hongli rose by more than 10%, Samsung’s Q2 operating profit is expected to jump by 18 times, and SK hynix has launched an approximately US$28 billion plan for a US listing.

4. The market value of the Huainan Gold ETF exceeded RMB 90 billion, overtaking the CSI 300 ETF to become the largest ETF product onshore. Gold prices stabilized above US$4,000.

5. Meituan released LongCat-2.0, an open-source trillion-parameter model. Moore Threads completed its adaptation, and Enterprise WeChat released the first batch of AI recording devices.

6. Citigroup raised its target price for TSMC to NT$3,800, expecting it to improve the 2026 revenue guidance. Ongoing AI demand continues to provide support.

7. Japan began the 21st round of Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water discharge, expected to release about 7,800 tons. Iran held the funeral ceremony for the late supreme leader Khamenei in Tehran.

8. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell by more than 3% intraday, while SK hynix dropped by more than 5%. Goldman Sachs sharply cut its yen forecast, expecting it to fall to 165 within a year.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 10:00-11:00

1. Semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis said that Nvidia’s Kyber NVL144 racks may face PCB manufacturing process challenges or delays of more than 12 months, pushing the timeline to 2028—leaving room for competitors such as AMD to catch up.

2. China A-share innovative drug sector rose strongly against the trend. Shouyao Holdings hit the 20CM daily limit, driven by supportive policies and the momentum from CITIC Securities’ optimism about steady improvement in fundamentals.

3. South Korea’s KOSPI index intraday decline widened to 3%. SK Hynix fell more than 5%, Samsung Electronics dropped 1.6%, and market sentiment deteriorated sharply.

4. Meituan officially open-sourced its trillion-parameter model, LongCat-2.0, and also released inference code optimized for domestic computing power, lowering the deployment barrier.

5. The National General Headquarters for Flood Control and Drought Relief launched a Level-IV emergency response for Anhui and Shandong to deal with heavy rain and torrential rain from July 6 to July 7.

6. Trading value across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed RMB 1.5 trillion, up by more than RMB 50 billion versus the same time the previous day. However, major A-share indexes rebounded after hitting highs, with the ChiNext index falling more than 2%.

7. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung urged speeding up large-scale chip and AI projects, stressing that “speed is everything,” and called for shortening approval procedures.

8. Goldman Sachs lowered its yen exchange rate forecast to 165 yen per US dollar. It favors carry-trade opportunities and believes that Japan’s slow rate hikes and ongoing fiscal pressures will continue to weigh on the yen.

📡 Top-of-hour update | 09:00-10:00

1. The People’s Bank of China today conducted a 70 billion yuan, 7-day reverse repo operation and a 10,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation. Net injections of 49.5 billion yuan were achieved on the day.

2. All three major A-share indexes opened higher across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component rose 0.52%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%. The storage-chip sector led the gains.

3. Commodity futures opened mostly higher. Tin on the Shanghai exchange rose by more than 3%, while live hogs, asphalt, and eggs rose by more than 2%. Stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell by more than 1%.

4. Multiple explosions were reported in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Russian forces launched ballistic missiles, resulting in 5 people injured, with an apartment building hit.

5. Jiangbo Long opened up more than 10%. It expects net profit in the first half of the year to grow year-on-year by 62,204%–74,394%, driving strength in the storage-chip sector.

6. The leading copper-clad laminate company Tripod (Comtec) released a price-increase notice. FR-4 was raised by 15%, copper foil processing fees were increased, and Hong Kong-listed PCB-related concept stocks opened higher as a group.

7. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated that the government will speed up administrative procedures for the chip-industry cluster and will set up a committee in August to enhance chip competitiveness.

8. Amazon Web Services (AWS) notified its supply chain that it will raise the shipment volume target for ASIC servers in the third quarter of 2026, which is expected to increase the plan by 20%–30%.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 08:00-09:00

1. The Tianwen-2 probe successfully rendezvoused with asteroid 2016HO3, initiating scientific observations and reducing positional errors from over hundreds of kilometers to the kilometer scale.

2. South Korea’s KOSPI index opened strong and rose steadily, at one point gaining nearly 3% before pulling back. It was supported by SK Hynix launching a $28 billion U.S. listing plan and optimism around Samsung Electronics’ earnings.

3. Spot gold broke through $4,200 per ounce to hit a two-week high, as weak U.S. employment data and falling oil prices weakened expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

4. Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio fell to below -20; the miners’ stress index reached a historical low. The market is extremely bearish, and historical patterns suggest the price may be approaching the bottom.

5. Citic Securities is bullish on the innovative drug sector, noting improvements in R&D quality and global value validation. It recommends focusing on three categories of companies, including leading Pharma/Biopharma players.

6. South Korea launched a 24-hour onshore USD/KRW trading system to improve the convertibility of the Korean won and pursue an MSCI Developed Market status.

7. New trading rules for China’s A-shares took effect. Fixed-price trading after hours was expanded to the main board and ETFs, and the price fluctuation limit for main-board ST shares was adjusted to 10%.

8. OPEC+ decided to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day in August. Oil prices came under pressure and fell, though shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain.

📡 On-the-Hour News Brief | 07:00-08:00

1. South Korea’s Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology has developed the world’s first semiconductor chip capable of synchronously measuring multiple biometrics. German scientists combined copper indium gallium selenide with perovskites to push solar cell efficiency beyond 25.5%. A U.S. team created SpudCell, the first synthetic cell with a complete life cycle.

2. Driven by a surge in AI demand, Samsung Electronics expects operating profit in the second quarter to jump by about 18 times year-on-year. The HBM race is intensifying, and Micron’s Japan expansion project worth $9.0 billion has started.

3. Spot gold rose above $4,200 per ounce in early trading, hitting a two-week high. Comex gold futures broke through $4,210 per ounce, propelled by geopolitical developments and rising safe-haven sentiment.

4. Iraq’s cabinet approved in principle a preliminary agreement for a strategic oil export pipeline project. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, and oil prices fell in early Asia trading.

5. Multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Trump plans to meet with Zelensky during the NATO summit and push for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has appointed the head of the judiciary again as Justice Director.

6. In the first half of the year, Hong Kong equities saw cumulative share buybacks of over HK$90 billion. Tencent bought back more than HK$24 billion. Risks from crowded trading in technology funds increased, and public-fund capital shifted toward undervalued sectors such as consumer goods and pharmaceuticals.

7. Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun emphasized accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace, and taking a forward-looking layout for future industries including quantum technology and bio-manufacturing.

8. Bank of China has restarted the issuance of 5-year personal large-denomination certificates of deposit, with an annualized rate of 1.55%-1.6%, reflecting banks’ demand for stable long-term funding.

📡 8-hour Recap | July 06, 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets have moved back and forth amid multiple geopolitical flashpoints and policy shifts. Israel’s cabinet made a historic decision to reject a ruling by the Supreme Court, Trump plans to push for an Russia-Ukraine ceasefire during the NATO summit, and disasters such as wildfires in southern France and an earthquake in Venezuela added to a complex geopolitical and macro backdrop. Meanwhile, China A-share trading new rules were officially implemented, OpenAI secretly submitted an IPO application, and Bitcoin rebounded to $63,000, yet ETF outflows continued—showing markets engaged in intense games between risk and opportunity.

Macroeconomy

1. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, as the oil market cools; Germany plans to raise its 2027 borrowing scale to 118 billion euros, due to tax revenue coming in below expectations.

2. The central bank carried out today a 1 trillion yuan (RMB) buyout-style reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, ending a 3-month streak of shrinking volumes for that maturity.

3. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 77%; the market is watching this week’s economic data and remarks from Fed officials.

4. The number of new fund accounts opened in the first half of the year exceeded 1.8 million, the highest for the same period in 6 years. Funds have made big adds, concentrating on hard-tech sectors represented by semiconductors.

5. Spot gold broke through $4,190 per ounce; New York futures gold moved above $4,200 per ounce, up 1.80% for the day. Earlier, gold had plunged nearly 30% before falling into a $4,000 “defense battle.”

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin was close to $63,500 over the weekend, setting a new nearly two-week high, but traders warned that Monday’s price action could be “extremely bad”; over the past 30 days, Ethereum’s net supply increased by 83,550 coins.

2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, with net redemptions of about $527 million over four trading days.

3. A “megawhale” opened 15x leverage short positions on BTC on Hyperliquid, indicating strong bearish sentiment; an address linked to sanctioned entities received over $100 billion worth of crypto last year.

4. XRP fell 22% in June, but historical data shows July is usually strong; of the past six Julys, all six closed higher, and five delivered double-digit gains.

5. A Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant since 2011 was activated 14 years later, with returns exceeding 700,000 times.

AI and Technology

1. OpenAI secretly submitted an IPO application, targeting a 2027 listing at a $1 trillion valuation, and proactively giving up 5% equity to the U.S. government to hedge regulatory risk.

2. Micron Technology began a $9.3 billion wafer-fab expansion project in Hiroshima, Japan, to produce AI memory chips such as HBM; the Japanese government will provide subsidies of up to around 500 billion yen.

3. Analyst Guo Mingchi predicts Apple will release a foldable iPhone Ultra in September 2026, priced around $2,299–$2,499, and preorders may be pushed back to the fourth quarter.

4. ByteDance’s Doubao and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen will disable human-like features and user-customized agents by July 15 to comply with China’s new AI interaction rules.

5. NVIDIA rolled out a new revenue-sharing plan: by providing GPU computing power, it will take a share of AI startups’ future sales revenue, strengthening the ecosystem.

Geopolitics

1. Israel’s cabinet rejected, unanimously, a Supreme Court ruling to comply with it—setting a historic precedent. Netanyahu said the troops will remain in Lebanon and reiterated the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

2. The White House confirmed that Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the NATO summit and plans to follow up with Putin, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible.

3. Wildfires continue to spread in southern France; about 10,000 people have been ordered to evacuate. Stage 3 of the Tour de France cycling race will be adjusted and the public will be banned from watching.

4. The death toll from the Venezuela earthquake rose to 3,342, with 16,740 injured—becoming a major macro event in that time period.

5. The Russian military launched multiple rounds of ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, with about 15 explosions occurring within 10 minutes.

Market Sentiment and Focus

Market sentiment is cautious overall, with geopolitical tensions escalating alongside uncertainty in macro policies. Investors are focused on the upcoming NATO summit, the market’s reaction after the new China A-share rules take effect, and whether Bitcoin can break through key resistance levels. Gold’s rebound and the AI funding and investment boom stand in contrast, indicating that both “safe-haven” and “growth” logic are at play.

📡 On-the-hour news | 06:00-07:00

1. Spot gold breaks through $4,190 per ounce; New York futures for gold rise above $4,200 per ounce, up 1.80% for the day.

2. New trading rules for China’s A-shares take effect today. Main boards and ETFs add fixed-price trading after-hours; the price limit for ST stocks is adjusted to 10%.

3. The South Korean won edged higher on its first day of 24-hour trading. The South Korean government has strengthened monitoring of night sessions to address currency pressure.

4. The Ukrainian capital Kyiv was hit by multiple rounds of Russian ballistic missile strikes; about 15 explosions occurred within 10 minutes.

5. U.S. stock index futures rose in early Asian trading. S&P 500 index futures gained 0.4%, and Nasdaq-100 index futures rose 1.2%.

6. Tesla launched a Robotaxi service in Miami without safety monitoring staff, planning to expand to twelve U.S. states by the end of 2026.

7. Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in the World Cup Round of 16 to advance successfully to the quarterfinals.

8. New trading rules for Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges take effect. Brokers revise risk disclosure statements accordingly, and existing investors do not need to re-sign.

📡 Hourly Update | 05:00-06:00

1. Trump plans to meet Zelensky during the NATO summit on July 8, then speak with Putin to push for the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible.

2. The death toll from the Venezuela earthquake has risen to 3,342, with 16,740 injured, making it a major macro event during this period.

3. Bitcoin has broken through 63,000 USDT, but ETFs are still recording a record-setting eighth consecutive week of net outflows, and market volatility continues.

4. The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has warned that AI in the financial services industry may trigger a “arms race,” and that the scope of regulation needs to be expanded to address risks such as algorithmic bias.

5. Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that the foldable iPhone will be assembled and shipped in the second half of 2026 at around 7–8 million units, potentially repeating the delayed release scenario of iPhone X.

6. Since the beginning of early 2026, Ukrainian drone attacks have hit Russian refineries at least 194 times—up to 16 times in a single month—leading to 20%–40% of Russian refining capacity being shut down.

7. In the first half of the year, the number of newly opened fund accounts exceeded 1.8 million, the highest for the same period in six years. Funds have added large positions, especially in hard-tech sectors represented by semiconductors.

8. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 77%. The market is focused on this week’s economic data and remarks by Fed officials.

📡 Hourly News Report | 04:00-05:00

1. Trump calls FIFA President Gianni Infantino to exert pressure. A red-card ban for the U.S. team’s top striker Balogun has been temporarily suspended, allowing him to play in the Round of 16 at the World Cup.

2. Today, the central bank conducts a RMB 1 trillion buyout-style reverse repurchase operation with a maturity of 3 months, bringing an end to the 3-month consecutive de-escalation in volumes at the end of that period.

3. This week, nine ETFs are set to be listed. Individual investors hold a proportion close to 80%. Popular thematic ETFs are favored, but trading activity is frequent.

4. By July 15, ByteDance’s Doubao and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen will disable personified interfaces and user-defined intelligent agents to comply with China’s new AI interaction regulations.

5. In 2025, the Trump family profited more than $1 billion through cryptocurrency. In the same period, Bitcoin plunged 50% from its all-time high, leaving retail investors with heavy losses.

6. Germany raises its borrowing plan for 2027 to €118 billion. Due to weaker tax revenues and higher debt costs, defense and infrastructure spending will not be capped.

7. NVIDIA introduces a new revenue-sharing plan: it will provide GPU computing power in exchange for a cut of future sales from AI startups, strengthening its ecosystem.

8. A base attack by South Sudan’s People’s Defense Forces resulted in the deaths of five soldiers. The government condemns the attack, saying its aim is to disrupt the December elections.