Eric SJ

This may be a genuine bottom signal.

Binance has suffered the largest crypto theft in the history of the industry.

After an incident this serious,

from the time of the incident to the lowest point, the price retraced $BTC (7w7)

The drop was about 5.4%, not far off the retracement when Bybit was hacked.

And the amount involved in this Binance incident was more than four times that of the Bybit hack back then.

The impact has been much smaller than expected.

The current price has already recovered nearly half of its decline (the latest news is that half of the stolen funds have also been frozen).

I think this is a signal well worth viewing optimistically.

A lot of people haven’t quite got this straight.

How much did Robinhood Chain actually earn in Q3?

According to DefiLlama, it was $41.49 million.

But $HOOD ’s financial report confirmed only $26 million.

To understand why, we need to break down the different ways revenue from a single gas fee is distributed:
1. Ethereum: Charges settlement and data fees required to run the chain. This isn’t the biggest expense.
2. 10% of net revenue goes to Arbitrum.
3. A share goes to other launch partners.

The chain revenue reported by DefiLlama has already been adjusted for the first two items above.

The additional item disclosed in the financial report is the final one: the share paid to “launch partners.”

These “launch partners” are partners who helped Robinhood build the chain and provided foundational services when it launched.

The full list hasn’t been disclosed. Arbitrum and Ethereum, mentioned above, could both be included.

According to the company, Robinhood initially retained only about 50% of its sequencer revenue.

That’s why management said on the earnings call that RHC actually generated about $50 million in gross revenue this quarter, with around $25 million left after revenue sharing.

DefiLlama’s $41.49 million figure reflects revenue after deducting some known fees. The difference arises because the company uses different accounting rules and includes a different scope of items.

To sum up:
1) About $50 million reflects the chain’s revenue-generating capacity.
2) $26 million is the revenue the company actually gets to keep.
3) $41.49 million is revenue calculated according to DefiLlama’s methodology.

Use DefiLlama to research the chain; to calculate its contribution to $HOOD ’s revenue, use the financial report.

The topic we discussed a month ago: $BTC
80,000 is strong resistance; a breakout would open up endless possibilities

The topic we're discussing now: $BTC 80,000 is strong support; if it breaks, I'm afraid it could fall back to 40,000

🈳👄🐒🍑✨🐔🪃

I know

Pump fun$PUMP is going to get criticized again

The collaboration between @pumpfun and @kimchi1x these past few days has gotten more and more bizarre.

Today, kimchi added pumpfun back to their bio.

To this day, I still don't know whether this farcical collaboration is over or if something just went wrong along the way 🤡

Here’s a line from a post by @FabianoSolana a few days ago:

“If you still support Pump Fun, I’ve completely lost respect for you.”

The Air Force has no idea what it's about to go through right now.

Putting the financial reports aside

$ISRG.US is also a medical technology company well worth investing in for the long term

1. Its business model is stable and clear
2. Its competitive moat deepens as the market grows
3. The development of AI will also give this company an even greater advantage

Its surgical robot was developed before the boom in large AI models

Previously, the robot mainly helped doctors perform surgeries with greater precision and consistency

But with the support of today’s AI, it can make robots easier for doctors to learn and use, encouraging more hospitals and doctors to perform robotic surgeries

It can also improve the utilization of existing equipment, giving each robot the opportunity to perform more surgeries

Lower barriers to entry = more customers
More surgeries = more consumables

It can attack when advancing and defend when retreating—either way, it wins
#股票财报季

Bitcoin $BTC can't fall any further

If you don't cash in your short today,

you'll have to take out a nude loan tomorrow.

At this point, the gains after $META 's earnings are almost completely wiped out

A quick aside

The market is no longer as bullish on AI as it was before; attention is shifting back to tech stocks themselves

Most other tech giants have a clear, easy-to-understand core business, but Meta's is rather vague

The last time Meta's story felt “sexy” to me was when it changed its name. Unfortunately, the metaverse has yet to prove itself (or perhaps it was simply too far ahead of its time)

Since then, it has made bets in several areas, including virtual reality, AI glasses, large language models, and AI agents

But so far, none of them have really taken off

The vast majority of Meta's revenue today comes from advertising

This was especially clear in its recently released Q3 earnings report: advertising accounted for nearly 98% of Meta's total revenue

Looking at Meta's revenue mix over the past six quarters, this share has barely fluctuated. In Q3, it fell by just 0.12 percentage points

Although Google earns more from advertising, Meta is undoubtedly more reliant on this business and is therefore more vulnerable to platform rules (in its annual report last year, it explicitly listed its reliance on third-party platforms such as Android and iOS as a significant business risk)

Perhaps it's also because Meta's products just don't really resonate with me compared with those of other tech giants

So in my eyes, although it's a very profitable advertising company, Meta still feels like the most ordinary of the major tech giants
#股票财报季

Recently, 𝕏 has been acting weird.

Blue-check subscriptions are taking a long time to get approved.

They used to show up within an hour.

So now, when I see projects on-chain whose Twitter accounts don't have a subscription checkmark, I wait and watch for a while first.

That’s saved me quite a bit of money lately.

Boss, is looking at financial reports really useful at this stage when we’re buying $SPCX ?

I’ve seen a lot of people discussing its latest financial report, especially the fact that revenue from its AI business surged 830% year over year.

To be sure, by its second earnings report after going public, SpaceX had already turned profitable.

The numbers are certainly impressive.

But at least at this stage, I don’t think SpaceX’s investment value has much to do with how much it earns in any given quarter.

There are plenty of companies on the market that make more money and have higher profit margins.

Why is the market willing to give SpaceX such a high valuation?

So we should focus more on whether the reasons underpinning the company’s high valuation have actually been validated.

SpaceX already has several businesses generating real revenue,

to the point that many people have lost sight of its original core narrative.

In a nutshell, the question is whether SpaceX, under Musk’s leadership, can reduce the cost of reaching space enough to give rise to a whole range of new commercial markets.

If you’re going to follow the business, Starship is actually the area that most needs to be tracked over the long term in its financial reports.

Whether it’s expanding the Starlink network or deploying AI data centers in space, a lot of equipment needs to be sent into orbit.

If every launch comes at a high cost, the scale of these businesses will be limited.

Getting something into space and being able to do it repeatedly, at a sufficiently low cost and high frequency, are two entirely different things.

That’s the key to the [space infrastructure operator] narrative.

➠ In late September, Starship completed its first orbital flight, deploying 26 V3 Starlink satellites in a single launch.

Starship hasn’t yet reached the point where it can validate the core narrative; it has only demonstrated that it can reliably deliver actual commercial payloads.

Musk also said on the earnings call that the next Starship test flight would attempt to successfully recover both the rocket’s first-stage booster and its second-stage spacecraft.

So, looking again at the growth in the AI business reported this time,

it shows that SpaceX can make money from the AI market, but it has little to do with the main story of space transportation.

In fact, this is precisely what I think we should be most careful not to conflate.

#股票财报季

RH chain @vladtenev — one follow, whether it was intentional or just a fat-finger.

And just like that, it went from 300k to 6.5M.

So,

Robinhood can’t possibly do nothing in the final quarter of this year, right?

$PONS has really got me bagholding to the point where I can barely take it anymore.

“Waiting for the storm”

Musk will be handing out tens of billions of dollars next year???

Interesting.

SpaceX is releasing its financial results tomorrow.

At this point, Musk announced that next year he’ll collectively airdrop one share of $SPCX to American children (possibly meaning anyone under 18?). What does this mean?

It’s estimated that there are about 72 million U.S. residents under the age of 18.

At the current price, the shares being distributed are worth over $10 billion.

It looks like a giveaway, but really it’s telling the market, “Guys, next year I’m effectively locking up some of my $SPCX shares.”

➠ (New rules announced by the U.S. Treasury on September 30, 2026, allow eligible stocks to be donated directly into children’s investment accounts, subject to a specific minimum holding period.)

I used AI to look up these rules. For eligible stocks contributed directly to these accounts, the minimum holding period lasts until whichever of these two dates comes first:
(1) Five years after the stock enters the account
(2) The account holder turns 18

Thanks to this news, SPCX is temporarily trending upward today.

However, based on Musk’s personal ownership stake, even if the shares are distributed to 72 million people, it would amount to less than 2% of his personal holdings.

So, looking at it purely from a trading perspective, I don’t think this is a lockup measure substantial enough to noticeably drive up SpaceX’s share price.

But because the airdrop is so broad, it will also greatly expand SpaceX’s long-term influence among ordinary American families.

Could think of it as spending tens of billions on a long-term brand-awareness campaign???

$币安人生 What the hell is going on?

I just saw a top female influencer retweet CZ's post about the Japanese version of Binance Life going on sale.

That was already 8 hours ago.

Got curious and checked the price action.

tm

Not moving at all?

Has liquidity dried up, or is the market maker trapped too?

Charlie Munger once said: Go fishing where the fish are.

It’s been exactly one month since ARC launched.

Longyi $ARGUS isn’t even at 10M yet, and a few days ago it almost fell below 5M.

If you’re still paying too much attention to ARC right now,

then I don’t want to talk to you!

However, TSMC's $TSM HPC growth has been rapid for some time; this is not a new development that began in the third quarter.

In each of the first two quarters, HPC grew by at least 20% quarter over quarter. What makes this especially impressive is that it has continued to grow by around 20% per quarter even as it has come to account for nearly 70% of total revenue.

Is HPC contributing such a large share of incremental revenue because TSMC is selling more wafers, or because these orders generate more revenue to begin with?

Considering the gap between wafer shipment growth and revenue growth discussed earlier, I’m inclined to think the latter is playing an increasingly important role in this growth cycle.

The revenue mix of advanced process nodes this quarter also offers some supporting evidence.

For example, wafers made using the 2nm process accounted for just 3% of revenue last quarter, but that share rose to 8% this quarter. The share for 3nm also increased, from 30% to 33%.

Together, the two now account for 41% of wafer revenue, up 8 percentage points from last quarter.

Looking at the data from the past few quarters, one possible interpretation is that TSMC may no longer need wafer shipments to grow at the same rate in order to generate higher revenue.

Growth is highly concentrated in high-performance computing and related demand for advanced manufacturing.

And because advanced manufacturing demand is the main driver of growth, TSMC's results alone cannot be taken as proof that the semiconductor industry as a whole is recovering in tandem.

That is also why many market observers say the semiconductor industry has yet to recover.

After all, for manufacturers that mainly produce chips using mature process nodes, customer demand and market conditions may be an entirely different story.