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A股2025年业绩预告透视：半数企业面临亏损

随着A股上市公司2025年度业绩预告工作的正式结束，一份令人惊讶的成绩单呈现在投资者面前。在总计发布预告的2957家企业中，有接近50%的公司预计会出现亏损，这一大面积的预亏现象确实出乎意料。

从地域分布的细节来看，亏损的阴影覆盖了全国31个省份。虽然广东、江苏、浙江和上海这些经济活跃地区预告亏损的企业绝对数量排在前列，但其在当地上市公司总数中的占比其实是低于市场平均水平的。相比之下，海南、吉林和青海的情况显得更为严峻，这三个地区的预亏公司比例位列全国前三名，当地均有超过40%的上市公司陷入了亏损境地。

把目光转向行业板块，分化趋势十分明显，其中房地产显然成为了亏损最为集中的重灾区。该行业不仅占据了亏损金额排名前十榜单中的半壁江山，更是出现了万科这位A股市场的年度亏损之王。此外，半导体、IT服务以及化学制药等行业的日子也不太好过，预告亏损的企业数量相当可观。随着各大行业龙头相继爆出大额预亏的消息，各个细分领域的最大亏损者也随之浮出水面。

面对这样一个半数上市公司都在经营亏损的市场环境，客观地讲，想要从中获得理想的投资回报率，无疑是一件极具挑战的事情。

2025 Annual A-Share Performance Forecast Insight: Nearly Half of Companies Face Loss Pressure

With the official conclusion of the disclosure of the 2025 annual performance forecasts by A-share listed companies, the latest statistical data has been fully presented. Among the 2957 companies that released forecasts this time, nearly 50% are expected to incur performance losses.

From the perspective of geographic distribution, these listed companies facing loss pressure cover all 31 provinces across the country. It is noteworthy that although Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, among other economically developed provinces and cities, have a high number of companies predicting losses, their proportion in the total number of local listed companies is actually lower than the market average. In contrast, Hainan, Jilin, and Qinghai have more prominent loss situations, with the proportion of listed companies expected to incur losses exceeding 40%, ranking among the top three in the country.

Turning to the industry level, the characteristics of market differentiation are very obvious. The real estate sector is undoubtedly the area with the most concentrated losses, as this industry occupies five of the top ten spots in the list of loss amounts, and the annual "loss king" of the A-share market is also claimed by Vanke. Additionally, the number of companies in IT services, semiconductors, and chemical pharmaceuticals expecting losses is also considerable. As several industry leaders successively disclose large loss announcements, leading loss companies in various sub-sectors also emerge.

In the face of a stock market environment where half of the listed companies are experiencing financial losses, investors should adopt a rational perspective. Under such fundamental conditions, achieving a good investment return is undoubtedly extremely challenging.

令人咋舌的A股业绩：半数企业面临亏损困境

随着A股上市公司2025年度业绩预告披露工作的圆满结束，共有2957家企业向市场交出了答卷。然而，统计结果却有些出人意料：预计出现亏损的公司占比竟然接近五成。

从地域分布来看，这波亏损潮波及了31个省份。数据显示，海南、吉林和青海三个地区的上市公司预亏比例领跑全国，均突破了40%的高位。相比之下，尽管广东、江苏、浙江及上海等经济大省市预告亏损的企业绝对数量较多，但其在当地占比实际上要低于市场平均水平。

行业层面的分化同样显著。房地产板块无疑是亏损最为集中的领域，不仅万科成为了A股市场的亏损王，而且在亏损金额排名前十的榜单中，房地产企业独占五席。此外，IT服务、半导体以及化学制药等行业的预亏企业数量也颇为可观，不少行业内的龙头企业相继爆出大额预亏消息，各细分领域的亏损大户也随之浮出水面。

面对这样一个半数上市公司都在遭受业绩滑坡的市场环境，想要从中获得理想的投资回报率，显然不是一件容易的事。

The A-share market has recently seen news that, with the conclusion of the disclosure of annual performance forecasts for listed companies in 2025, a total of 2957 enterprises have submitted their estimated performance reports to the market.

However, the statistical results are quite surprising, as the data shows that nearly half of the companies are expected to face losses.

From a geographical distribution perspective, these loss-making enterprises are widely spread across 31 provinces nationwide. Among them, the listed companies in Hainan, Jilin, and Qinghai have particularly high loss ratios, all exceeding 40%, ranking among the top three in the country. In contrast, although the absolute number of enterprises forecasting losses in major economic provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai ranks high, the proportion of loss-making companies in these locales is actually below the market average.

Turning to the industry dimension, the differentiation phenomenon is also significant. The real estate industry is undoubtedly a major area of losses, as this sector not only occupies five of the top ten spots in the list of the largest loss amounts but has also produced Vanke, the largest loss-maker in the A-share market for the year. At the same time, the number of companies forecasting losses in sectors such as IT services, semiconductors, and chemical pharmaceuticals is also not insignificant. As leading enterprises in multiple industries successively report large estimated losses, major loss-making companies in various sub-sectors are gradually coming to light.

Ultimately, in a market environment where half of the listed companies are suffering losses, achieving good overall investment returns is clearly a significant challenge.

礼来公司披露最新季度业绩概况

全球制药行业的领军者礼来公司 (Eli Lilly) 于 2026 年 2 月 4 日正式对外公布了其第四季度的财务运营状况。

根据这份最新的业绩报告，礼来在该季度展现了强劲的增长势头，总营收攀升至 193 亿美元，较去年同期大幅增长了 43%。在盈利能力方面，公司录得净利润 66 亿美元，同比激增 50%，净利润率更是达到了 34% 的高水平。

纵观过去一整年的表现，礼来公司累计实现了 183 亿美元的净利润。若以公司目前的 4.7 万名员工总数来计算，其人均效能相当惊人：平均每位员工每年为公司贡献了 39 万美元的净利润，折合人民币约为 270 万元。

这家始建于 1876 年的老牌企业，如今已走过了 150 年的辉煌历程。目前，礼来公司的市值规模约为 9600 亿美元，在所有美国本土企业中稳居第 11 位。

在业务布局上，礼来公司始终深耕于免疫学、神经科学、肿瘤及糖尿病等前沿领域的创新药物研发与销售。其核心产品矩阵十分强大，包含了备受市场瞩目的糖尿病及减重疗法替尔泊肽（Mounjaro/Zepbound），以及乳腺癌治疗药物阿贝西利（Verzenio）和免疫类药物依奇珠单抗（Taltz）。

拥有150年悠久历史的全球制药巨头礼来公司（Eli Lilly）于2026年2月4日正式披露了其第四季度的财务成绩单。这家成立于1876年的老牌企业不仅底蕴深厚，在业绩表现上也依旧势头迅猛。

根据财报数据，礼来公司本季度总营收达到193亿美元，较去年同期大幅增长43%。盈利能力方面表现同样出色，季度净利润录得66亿美元，同比增长50%，净利润率维持在34%的水平。若将时间轴拉长至过去一年，该公司累计实现的净利润总额高达183亿美元。

目前，礼来公司的员工规模为4.7万人。基于年度利润数据计算，其人均效能相当惊人，平均每位员工每年为公司创造的净利润达到39万美元，约合人民币270万元。资本市场也对该公司的表现给予了高度认可，目前礼来市值约为9600亿美元，在美国所有上市公司中位列第11名。

在业务层面，礼来公司始终致力于肿瘤、免疫学、神经科学以及糖尿病等领域的创新药物研发与销售。驱动其业绩增长的核心明星产品包括广受关注的糖尿病与减重药物替尔泊肽（Mounjaro/Zepbound），以及在乳腺癌治疗领域的阿贝西利（Verzenio）和免疫药物依奇珠单抗（Taltz）。

Investment Notes #114: In-Depth Analysis of Major Bull Markets in U.S. Stocks

The U.S. stock market exhibits a significant characteristic: "bears are short and bulls are long." Reviewing the data since World War II, the average duration of a bear market in U.S. stocks is about 10 months, while the average length of a bull market reaches 4 years and 4 months. This means that for approximately 83% of the time, the market is in a rising bull market. Therefore, investors should overcome their fear of stock prices being at historical highs and learn to continue accumulating positions during a bull market, rather than hesitating.

Today, we will chronologically sort out several milestone bull markets in U.S. stocks after World War II and analyze their formation reasons through data, hoping to draw wisdom from history to guide future investment decisions.

1. Post-War Recovery and the Rise of the Middle Class (1949 - 1956)

This marks the beginning of the modern bull market in U.S. stocks. After World War II, the United States established its status as the world's only industrial power, and the Bretton Woods system laid the foundation for the dollar's hegemony. Driven by the enormous consumer demand brought about by the baby boom and large-scale infrastructure construction, the economy experienced rapid development. In addition, the extremely low stock valuations at that time, combined with the doubling of corporate profits, triggered a long-term value return. During this 7-year bull market, the S&P 500 index recorded a cumulative increase of 267%, with an annualized return of 19.5%.

2. The Golden Era of the 1970s (1974 - 1980)

During this period, the U.S. economy emerged from the quagmire of the oil crisis, and the stock market subsequently welcomed a rising trend lasting over 6 years. During this time, the S&P 500 index climbed a cumulative 126%, with an annualized return of 14.1%.

3. Bull Market During Reagan's Presidency (1982 - 1987)

This bull market is named after President Reagan, with major driving forces including supply-side reforms and falling interest rates. During the more than 5-year upward cycle, the S&P 500 index increased by a cumulative 229%, with an unprecedented annualized return of 26.7%.

4. The Internet Wave (1987 - 2000)

This was the most exciting market phase in history and a key battle that established the reputation of the Nasdaq 100 index. The information technology revolution and the birth of the internet completely reshaped the business landscape, with tech giants like Microsoft, Yahoo, and Cisco becoming symbols of wealth. In this 12-year super bull market, the S&P 500 index saw a cumulative increase of 582%, with an annualized return of 16.9%. In comparison, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index was even more astounding, soaring 32 times, with an annualized return of approximately 30.5%.

5. Super Market Driven by Quantitative Easing (2009 - 2020)

Emerging from the shadow of the financial tsunami, the zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing (QE) implemented by the Federal Reserve injected nearly unlimited liquidity into the market. At the same time, the mobile internet era initiated by the iPhone gave rise to trillion-dollar companies such as Amazon, Google, and Apple. In a rising cycle lasting 11 years, the S&P 500 index recorded a cumulative increase of 401%, with an annualized return of 15.8%. The Nasdaq 100 index saw a cumulative increase of over 800% during the same period, with an annualized return reaching 22.6%.

6. The New AI Era After 2022 (October 2022 - Present)

After experiencing the impact of high inflation in 2022, artificial intelligence technology has led U.S. stocks to achieve a rapid reversal. This market upturn is no longer solely dependent on valuation increases but stems from the explosive demand for AI hardware and substantial profit growth brought about by software efficiency optimization. As of early February 2026, this bull market has continued for more than 3 years. The S&P 500 index has increased by about 100%, with an annualized return of 24.0%; the Nasdaq 100 index has recorded a cumulative increase of over 140%, with an annualized return setting a record of 30.8%.

What insights can we gain from the above history?

First, bull markets often sprout in pessimism. Whether it was the end of high inflation in 1982 or after the financial crisis in 2009, the grandest trends always begin when market sentiment is in despair.

Secondly, technological revolutions are the core driving force for obtaining excess returns. Over the past 40 years, the Nasdaq 100 index has outperformed the S&P 500 index in almost all long-cycle bull markets, which is a necessary reflection of technology enhancing production efficiency.

Looking ahead, although the U.S. stock market will inevitably face thrilling bear market adjustments, it will also welcome magnificent bull markets. As long as we adhere to long-term holding, we will ultimately achieve outstanding investment returns and accumulate unimaginable wealth.

If you wish to learn more about my investment philosophy and experiences, feel free to visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese book "Wealth Shortcut" or its English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."

AMD's Latest Quarterly Performance Overview

On February 3, 2026, AMD, ranked third in the U.S. semiconductor industry, officially disclosed its financial operating status for the fourth quarter.

According to the financial report data, the company's total revenue for the quarter rose to $10.3 billion, a 34% increase compared to the same period last year. The improvement in profitability was particularly significant, with net profit soaring 213% year-over-year, amounting to $1.5 billion, while the net profit margin remained at 15%.

Looking back over the entire year, the company achieved a cumulative net profit of $4.3 billion, equivalent to approximately 30.1 billion yuan.

From a team efficiency perspective, AMD has about 26,000 employees worldwide. This means that, on average, each employee generated a net profit of $162,000 for the company each year, approximately 1.13 million yuan.

Founded in 1969, this established technology company currently has a market value of about $390 billion, ranking 21st among all companies in the United States.

In terms of company leadership, the current CEO, Lisa Su, is an outstanding Chinese-American woman. Notably, she has a familial relationship with Nvidia's founder and CEO, Jensen Huang, who is her cousin.

Currently, AMD's core product lineup mainly includes CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing solutions.

Merck's Latest Quarterly Performance Overview

On February 3, 2026, Merck, a leading company in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, officially disclosed its latest quarterly financial performance. According to the data, the company's revenue for this quarter reached $16.4 billion, reflecting a 5% increase compared to the same period last year. However, net profit saw a decline, recording $3 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 21%, and the net profit margin for the quarter was 18%.

Looking back over the past year, Merck achieved a cumulative net profit of $18.3 billion, equivalent to approximately 128 billion RMB. This performance represents a 9% growth compared to the previous year. In terms of workforce efficiency, the company currently has approximately 75,000 employees worldwide. Based on this, the average net profit generated per employee per year reached $244,000, approximately 1.71 million RMB.

As a company with a rich history of 135 years since its establishment in 1891, Merck primarily focuses its business on core areas such as oncology, vaccines, diabetes, and anti-infection. Its star products include the well-known PD-1 cancer treatment drug Keytruda and the HPV vaccine Gardasil/Gardasil 9.

On a macro market level, the investment return performance of the U.S. healthcare sector has recently appeared relatively weak. Data shows that the average annualized return of this sector over the past 5 years has only been maintained at 6%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500 index's 14.4% during the same period. If we extend the observation period to the past 10 years, the sector's annualized return of 10.9% is also lower than the S&P 500 index's 15.8%.

Pfizer's Latest Financial Report for 2026: Performance and Market Trends of a Century-Old Pharmaceutical Company

On February 3, 2026, Pfizer, a leading company in the American pharmaceutical sector, officially disclosed its latest quarterly financial performance. From a data perspective, the company's revenue for this quarter reached $17.6 billion, showing a slight decline of 1% compared to the same period last year, but profitability remains robust. The quarterly net profit reached $3.8 billion, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5%, with a net profit margin of 22%.

Looking back at the entire year's performance, Pfizer achieved a total net profit of $9.8 billion, which, when converted to RMB, amounts to approximately 68.6 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, in this large enterprise with about 80,000 employees globally, the average net profit created by each employee per year is as high as $123,000, equivalent to 860,000 yuan, demonstrating a very high level of employee efficiency.

As a well-established company founded in 1849, Pfizer has a history of 177 years. It is not only a leader in the global innovative biopharmaceutical industry, but its core business also widely covers important medical fields such as vaccines, oncology, cardiovascular, metabolism, inflammation, and immunology. Among its rich product pipeline are star products like the mRNA vaccine Comirnaty, the oncology treatment drug Ibrance (palbociclib), the rare disease drug Vyndaqel, the antibiotic Zithromax, and the well-known Viagra (sildenafil).

In terms of performance in the capital market, the overall trend of the U.S. healthcare sector has shown some fatigue over the past five years, with an average annualized return of 6%, far below the S&P 500 index's performance of 14.4% during the same period. Even when extending the observation period to the past ten years, the sector's annualized return of 10.9% still lags behind the S&P 500 index's 15.8%.

American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer officially disclosed its latest quarterly performance report on February 3, 2026. Although the total revenue for this quarter was $17.6 billion, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 1%, the company performed positively in terms of profitability, achieving a net profit of $3.8 billion, which represents a year-on-year growth of 5%, and the net profit margin remained at 22%.

In the broader industry context, the recent investment returns in the U.S. healthcare sector have appeared somewhat lackluster. Data indicates that the average annualized return for this sector over the past five years was only 6%, significantly trailing the S&P 500 index's strong performance of 14.4% during the same period. When expanding the observation period to the past ten years, the sector's 10.9% annualized return also lags behind the S&P 500 index's 15.8%.

Artificial intelligence software giant Palantir showcased an impressive quarterly performance report to the market on February 2, 2026. According to the financial report data, the company achieved revenue of $1.4 billion this quarter, representing a growth rate of 70% compared to the same period last year. Even more remarkable is the explosion in its profitability, with net profit soaring to $610 million, a staggering 670% increase year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 44%. Despite Palantir's workforce being only around 4,000 people, its market value has risen to $370 billion, allowing it to successfully rank 24th in the list of American enterprises.

Palantir's performance is exceptionally impressive

The leading company in the artificial intelligence software field, Palantir, officially disclosed its latest quarterly financial data on February 2, 2026.

According to the report, the company's revenue for the quarter reached 1.4 billion dollars, achieving a significant growth of 70% compared to the same period last year. In terms of profitability, the data is even more exciting, with net profit soaring to 610 million dollars, a year-on-year increase of 670%, which also brought the company's net profit margin to 44%.

With such strong financial performance, Palantir's current market value has reached 370 billion dollars, placing it 24th in the ranking of corporate market values in the United States.

How can Chinese families raise low-cost funds for stock market investment?

Regarding the issue of how Chinese families can apply for low-interest loans, I sought answers from Google AI.

Google AI pointed out:

In China, ordinary families are currently (2026) entering an excellent policy window for obtaining "low-interest" loans. Thanks to the central bank's further reduction of the relending rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses in January 2026, coupled with the widespread implementation of fiscal interest subsidy policies, ordinary families can focus on the following low-cost financing channels:

First, personal housing provident fund loans, which are the lowest-cost long-term funds available to families. The latest interest rates for 2026 show that the interest rate for the first home provident fund loan has been reduced to about 2.6% (for terms over 5 years), while the rate for terms of 5 years or less is as low as 2.1%. This funding can be used for purchasing, renting, or meeting the requirements for major home renovations. It is worth noting that for existing provident fund loans, the new reduced interest rate has been automatically implemented since January 1, 2026, significantly relieving the monthly payment pressure for borrowers.

Second, personal consumption loans with a "national subsidy" nature, which are a policy bonus for 2026. To boost consumption, various regions have introduced fiscal interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans in 2026. The original interest rate range for bank consumption loans is between 3.0% and 3.8%, but with an additional 1 percentage point of fiscal subsidy, the actual interest rate burden for borrowers can be reduced to between 2% and 2.8%. Applicants can apply for products like "Rong e Loan" and "Jian Yi Loan" through mobile banking channels such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Construction Bank, etc., by signing the "Fiscal Subsidy Agreement". Although the policy requires that funds must be used for actual consumption in areas such as decoration, home appliances, and education, and prohibits inflow into the stock market or real estate market, in reality, due to regulatory loopholes, many investors have funneled these low-interest funds into the securities and real estate markets through capital turnover.

Third, for families with side jobs or small businesses, there are "1-head" business mortgage loans. If family members hold a registered company or individual business license (some banks even accept newly established licenses), they qualify to apply for business loans. In 2026, the targeted interest subsidy for the service industry and small micro-enterprises is unprecedented, with the maximum subsidy amount per household raised to 10 million yuan. The actual cost of such mortgage business loans, after enjoying the interest subsidy, has fallen below 2%, with some products' interest rates even as low as 1.3% to 1.9%. Applying for these loans usually requires providing real estate as collateral.

I also consulted Grok on the same issue, and the response was quite similar to the previous one:

First is the housing provident fund loan, which is considered the most recommended ultra-low interest channel for families at present. The benchmark interest rate for the first home over 5 years is 2.6% (effective from January 1, 2026, and existing loans are automatically adjusted), and the benchmark interest rate for the second home over 5 years is 3.075%. This is the lowest-cost long-term loan currently available to families, and almost no other channel can compare. Its applicable scenarios are limited to buying a house, building a house, and major renovations of self-occupied houses. The application method is to submit an application to the local provident fund center after regularly contributing to the provident fund; the limit varies by city, typically between 600,000 to 1,200,000 in first-tier cities, with possibly higher limits in second and third-tier cities. Its advantages are fixed interest rates and low monthly payment pressure, while its disadvantages are limited quotas, slower approval, and restricted use. Families with existing provident fund loans have automatically enjoyed interest reductions since January 2026, with no additional operations required.

Second are the first and second commercial mortgage loans, which are linked to the LPR and are currently at low levels. According to the latest quotation on January 20, 2026, the LPR for terms over 5 years is 3.5%, and it has remained unchanged for several months. The actual execution interest rate for the first home is mostly between 3.2% and 3.5% (that is, LPR minus 0 to 30 basis points), and some cities are even lower; although the interest rate for the second home is slightly higher, it is still historically low overall. The advantages of such loans are high limits (millions can be applied for) and long terms (up to 30 years), making them very suitable for families with large, long-term funding needs for upgrading or first-time home purchases.

Finally, personal consumption loans plus fiscal interest subsidies are regarded as the most inclusive "national subsidy" low-interest consumption loans in 2026. The basic quotation for bank consumption loans mainly starts from 3.0% to 3.5%, for example, Construction Bank's "Jian Yi Loan," Beijing Bank's "Jing e Loan," and Guangfa Bank often have promotional activities at 3.0%. Based on this, the central government provides a subsidy of 1 percentage point per year, which reduces the actual interest rate to around 2% to 2.5%. The optimized policy for 2026 will be implemented until December 31, 2026, stipulating that the cumulative interest subsidy limit for each person at each bank is 3,000 yuan per year, and this limit is shared between loans and credit card installments. The new policy has removed single or cumulative low limits, almost covering all consumption scenarios, including daily shopping, cultural tourism, dining, renovation, car purchases, education, and healthcare, even credit card bill installments are included in the subsidy range (annual subsidy 1%). Currently, the six major banks, including Industrial, Agricultural, China, Construction, Transportation, and Postal, have fully implemented this policy, and some city commercial banks and rural commercial banks are also following suit. For example, borrowing 100,000 yuan for renovation or car purchase, the annual interest rate can drop from 3.0% to about 2.0% after subsidies, saving about 2,000 yuan in interest over a year. Such loans are suitable for families for renovation, education, healthcare, durable goods consumption, and travel for medium to short-term needs. It is particularly important to be alert that funds must be used for genuine consumption, and banks will conduct verification; if fraudulent use of funds is detected, the subsidies will be reclaimed, and penalties will be imposed.

How can Chinese families obtain low-cost funding for potential stock market investments in the current environment?

In response to this question, I consulted Google's AI about ways for Chinese families to obtain low-interest loans.

Google AI's analysis pointed out that:

In 2026, ordinary Chinese families will welcome an extremely favorable financing policy window. Benefiting from the central bank's further reduction of the interest rates for rural and small enterprise re-lending in January 2026, as well as the widespread implementation of fiscal interest subsidies, families can focus on the following types of low-cost funding channels:

First is the personal housing provident fund loan, which is considered the lowest cost long-term funding currently available to families. Data from 2026 shows that the interest rate for first-home provident fund loans over 5 years has dropped to around 2.6%, while the rate for loans of 5 years or less is as low as 2.1%. This funding is mainly applicable for purchasing a home, renting a home, or qualifying major renovations. It is worth noting that for existing provident fund loan users, the new interest rate has automatically taken effect since January 1, 2026, significantly alleviating the monthly payment burden.

Secondly, personal consumer loans with fiscal subsidies are the main policy dividends of 2026. Although the market quote for consumer loans generally ranges between 3.0% and 3.8%, after adding a 1 percentage point fiscal interest subsidy, the actual burden rate for borrowers can be greatly reduced to between 2% and 2.8%. Users applying for products like Rong E Borrow and Jian Yi Loan through mobile banking at banks such as ICBC and CCB need to sign or check the fiscal interest subsidy agreement. Although the policy strictly requires that funds be limited to actual consumption such as decoration, home appliances, and education, and prohibits inflows into the real estate or stock markets, in reality, due to regulatory loopholes, some investors have channeled these funds into the capital market or real estate market.

The third category is operational mortgage loans for families with side businesses or small enterprises. If a family member holds a registered company or individual business (some banks even allow new licenses), they qualify to apply. In 2026, the targeted interest subsidy for the service industry and small businesses is unprecedented, with the maximum subsidy per household raised to 10 million yuan. After subsidies, the actual financing cost of mortgage-based business loans has fallen below 2%, and some specific products even have interest rates as low as 1.3% to 1.9%, although this requires collateral in the form of real estate.

Subsequently, I submitted the same question to Grok, and the feedback received was highly consistent with the above information, supplemented with more details:

Regarding housing provident fund loans, Grok also listed it as the family's preferred ultra-low-interest channel. Specifically, the benchmark interest rate for first homes over 5 years is 2.6% (automatically adjusted for existing loans starting January 1, 2026), while for second homes it is 3.075%. Apart from this, there are almost no other channels that can provide such low long-term funding. Its advantages lie in fixed interest rates and low repayment pressure, while its disadvantages are the limited amounts (usually between 600,000 to 1,200,000 in first-tier cities, slightly higher in second and third-tier cities), longer approval periods, and strict restrictions on usage.

Grok also mentioned the first and second commercial mortgage loans. As of January 20, 2026, the latest quote shows that the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5%, currently, the actual execution interest rate for first homes is mostly between 3.2% and 3.5% (i.e., LPR minus 0 to 30 basis points), with some cities even lower; although the interest rate for second homes is slightly higher, it is still at historically low levels. These loans are suitable for families with significant long-term funding needs for purchasing homes, with limits usually reaching several million yuan and terms of up to 30 years.

In terms of personal consumer loans with fiscal subsidies, Grok emphasized that this is the most inclusive low-interest product under national subsidies in 2026. With mainstream products like Jian Yi Loan from Construction Bank, Jing E Loan from Beijing Bank, and Guangfa Bank, the basic quotes start from 3.0% to 3.5%. After the central government subsidizes 1 percentage point each year, the actual interest rate drops to between 2% and 2.5%. The optimized policy for 2026 is effective until December 31, 2026, stipulating that the annual cumulative subsidy limit for each person per bank is 3,000 yuan, and this limit is shared between loans and credit card installments. The new policy eliminates the low limit on single or cumulative amounts, covering almost all consumption scenarios such as shopping, cultural tourism, dining, decoration, vehicle purchases, education, and medical care, and credit card bill installments can also enjoy an annualized interest subsidy of 1%. Currently, the six major state-owned banks have fully implemented this policy, and some city commercial banks and rural commercial banks are also following suit. For example, borrowing 100,000 yuan for decoration or vehicle purchase, with an original annual interest rate of 3.0%, the subsidized rate is only about 2.0%, saving approximately 2,000 yuan in interest in a year.

However, Grok also specifically reminded that banks will verify the authenticity of the fund's use, and if any misappropriation or diversion of funds is found, the subsidies will be reclaimed and penalties imposed.

Regarding how Chinese families can raise low-interest funds to layout stock market investments, I specifically consulted Google AI. According to the feedback from AI, for ordinary families, 2026 is undoubtedly a golden policy window period for obtaining low-cost financing. This is mainly due to the central bank's further reduction of the re-lending interest rate for supporting agriculture and small enterprises in January 2026, coupled with the broader implementation of fiscal interest subsidy policies. Currently, there are several types of low-interest channels worth paying attention to.

First is the individual housing provident fund loan, which remains the lowest cost long-term funding source accessible to ordinary families. According to the latest data for 2026, the interest rate for first-time home provident fund loans for terms over 5 years has dropped to around 2.6%, while the rate for terms of 5 years or less is as low as 2.1%. This funding is mainly applicable for purchasing houses, renting houses, or approved major renovation projects. For friends holding existing provident fund loans, the new reduced interest rate has been automatically implemented since January 1, 2026, and you will notice a significant decrease in monthly payments.

Secondly, there are personal consumption loans with national subsidy characteristics, which are a unique policy bonus for 2026. To further stimulate the consumer market, several regions have introduced fiscal interest subsidy measures for personal consumption loans. Although the market nominal interest rates for such loans usually range between 3.0% and 3.8%, after adding a 1 percentage point fiscal interest subsidy, the actual cost of funds borne by borrowers can be significantly reduced to between 2% and 2.8%. When applying through mobile banking products like Industrial and Commercial Bank's Rong e loan or China Construction Bank's Jianyi loan, please be sure to check or sign the fiscal interest subsidy agreement. Although the policy strictly limits the use of funds to actual consumption such as renovation, purchasing home appliances, and education, and explicitly prohibits inflow into the stock market or real estate market, in practice, due to existing regulatory loopholes, many investors have managed to channel these funds into the stock and real estate markets.

Finally, there are operating mortgage loans for families with side businesses or small businesses, with interest rates starting from 1. If your family members have registered a company or individual business, some banks even accept clients with newly issued licenses, making applying for an operating loan an excellent choice. In 2026, the targeted interest subsidy for the service industry and small and micro enterprises is unprecedented, with the maximum subsidy amount per household raised to 10 million yuan. After accounting for the subsidy, the actual interest cost of mortgage-type operating loans has fallen below 2%, and some products even exhibit ultra-low rates of 1.3% to 1.9%. Of course, applying for such loans usually requires providing property as collateral.

Regarding how Chinese families can obtain low-interest funds to invest in the stock market, we asked Google AI: How should Chinese families seek low-interest loan resources in the current environment?

The analysis provided by the AI shows that for ordinary Chinese families, it is currently 2026, and they are in a favorable policy window for obtaining low-cost funds. With the central bank further lowering the interest rate for agricultural and small business re-loans in January 2026, along with the comprehensive promotion of the fiscal interest subsidy policy, the following types of low-interest financing channels are worth paying close attention to.

The first choice is personal housing provident fund loans, which are regarded as the lowest-cost long-term funds available to families. According to the latest interest rate standards in 2026, the interest rate for the first set of housing provident fund loans with a term of over 5 years has dropped to around 2.6%, while the term of 5 years or less is as low as 2.1%. Its applicability covers home purchases, rentals, and approved major renovations. It should be noted that if you hold existing provident fund loans, the new adjusted interest rate will be automatically applied starting from January 1, 2026, resulting in a significant decrease in monthly payments.

Secondly, there are personal consumer loans with national subsidies, which are a specific policy bonus for 2026. To stimulate consumer demand, many places have implemented fiscal interest subsidy policies for personal consumer loans. Originally, the interest rates for consumer loans ranged from 3.0% to 3.8%. After enjoying a 1 percentage point fiscal interest subsidy, the actual interest rate borne by borrowers can be as low as 2% to 2.8%. When applying through mobile banking products such as ICBC's Rong e Borrow and CCB's Jian Yi Loan, simply check or sign the fiscal interest subsidy agreement. Although policies strictly require that funds must be used for actual consumption scenarios such as decoration, home appliances, and education, and prohibit inflows into the stock or real estate markets, the reality is that due to many regulatory loopholes, many investors have used various funding operations to channel these funds into the stock and real estate markets.

Finally, there are commercial mortgage loans with interest rates starting with 1, which are suitable for families with side businesses or small enterprises. As long as family members have a registered company or individual business, and even some banks accept newly established licenses, they can apply. In 2026, the targeted interest subsidies for the service industry and small micro-enterprises are substantial, with the maximum subsidy amount per household raised to 10 million yuan. The actual cost of mortgage-type business loans after subsidies has fallen below 2%, and some products have even seen extremely low interest rates between 1.3% and 1.9%, provided that the borrower offers real estate as collateral.

The latest market analysis from the Middle Finger Research Institute shows that domestic housing prices remained in a downward trend in January. Specific data indicates that during January 2026, the price of second-hand houses in 100 cities fell by 0.85% month-on-month. Notably, the housing prices in Beijing also experienced a month-on-month decrease of 1.28%. From the existing data, it seems that the real estate market is still a long way from the goal of stabilizing and rebounding.

A stunning scene has emerged in the domestic fund market, truly a rare market spectacle. I have observed that the trading code 161126 for the Guotou Silver LOF has seen its current premium rate soar to a high of 109.9%, which means the premium has exceeded 100%.

Such extreme data performance fully reflects the nearly frenzied speculative sentiment among domestic investors. However, it is puzzling that, in the face of this absurd market drama that defies common sense, neither the fund management companies nor the relevant regulatory agencies seem to have taken effective measures to curb it. This laissez-faire management status raises questions about the professionalism of the relevant institutions and even gives the impression of a lack of a rigorous governance system, resembling a makeshift troupe thrown together on short notice.

Being able to witness fund products in the Chinese market with a premium rate exceeding 100% is indeed eye-opening and quite rare. The latest observation shows that the Guotou Silver LOF with the code 161128 has seen its premium rate soar to a high of 109.9%. This phenomenon intuitively reflects the almost crazy enthusiasm of domestic investors. However, faced with such an absurd market farce, fund managers and regulatory authorities have turned a blind eye, showing no effective intervention. This obvious lack of management makes one feel that they lack professional standards, resembling an amateur team that is not rigorous enough.