kalshi

🔄 Kalshi ends Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory role after his firm backs Polymarket

Prediction market Kalshi has ended its advisory relationship with Donald Trump Jr., Reuters reported. The move follows his venture firm 1789 Capital leading rival Polymarket's $1 billion funding round, which would value Polymarket at $21 billion, with 1789 Capital set to contribute about $300 million. A Kalshi spokesperson said the decision was mutual and that political considerations played no role. Trump Jr. had joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser in January 2025.

⭐ The split sharpens the rivalry between the two biggest prediction markets at a time when the sector faces a wave of state lawsuits and rising political scrutiny.

#Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets

🚨 WARREN caught a Trump aide betting on Trump's speeches. An aide read the speech early, then bet on Kalshi he would say those words. CFTC fined him $172,000. Warren takes the gavel in January. Still betting on Kalshi, or is the crackdown coming? $BTC #Kalshi

🚨 REGULATORY PRESSURE SPIKES AS $KALSHI FACES SUDDEN CFTC ENFORCEMENT THREATS ⚠️

The regulatory net is tightening across the prediction market landscape as federal watchdogs flex their muscles. 📊 This sudden escalation over compliance procedures proves that even established sector leaders are walking through a minefield of shifting legal boundaries.

Smart capital watches how compliance friction ripples into broader liquidity and market participation. ⚡ When regulators demand absolute submission discipline, expect platforms to face heavy headwinds while structural compliance costs surge.

💬 Are event-contract platforms facing a permanent valuation ceiling under this heavy-handed oversight? 👇

⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️

🏷️ #KALSHI #CFTC #PredictionMarkets #CryptoRegulation

🔥 💎

🚨 CFTC WARNS KALSHI: CHARGES COULD COME SOON

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has warned prediction-market giant Kalshi that enforcement charges could be imminent, POLITICO reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the probe. Reuters confirmed the report.

The CFTC is investigating whether Kalshi failed to properly notify the agency about dozens of new contracts. Kalshi pushed back, calling it a procedural error involving a handful of contracts, many of which never went live.

🔹 WHY IT MATTERS
This is a sharp turn in the prediction-market war. The same CFTC has spent weeks suing states to DEFEND Kalshi's federal status, and just last week it approved single-stock perpetual futures for Kalshi and others. Now the regulator is signaling it will also police its own licensees.

Prediction markets are now deeply tied to crypto: Kalshi lists crypto event contracts, and its markets feed straight into the trading narrative. A federal crackdown, even a procedural one, puts the whole sector on notice.

⚠️ THE RISK
Nothing has been filed yet. This is a warning, not a charge, and Kalshi disputes the scope. If the CFTC follows through, expect volatility in prediction-market-linked names and fresh uncertainty over which contracts survive federal scrutiny.

📌 Sharing personal opinions only, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell. Crypto is highly risky; DYOR and you are solely responsible. No coin promotion.

#Kalshi #CFTC #Crypto #Binance

【Caught playing both sides and “asked to leave”! Donald Trump Jr. loses Kalshi adviser role because his own fund backed rival Polymarket】
Prediction market Kalshi confirmed on November 12 that it had agreed with Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, to end his advisory contract. The move came after 1789 Capital, where he is a partner, led a $1 billion funding round for rival Polymarket, valuing it at $21 billion. He remains an adviser to Polymarket. Democrats have just won control of both chambers of Congress, and Senator Warren and others have written to the White House asking it to clarify his role and interests in prediction markets by November 23.
#Kalshi #Polymarket #predictionmarket

Kalshi Ends Trump Jr.'s Advisory Deal Over Polymarket

- Kalshi has ended its advisory agreement with Donald Trump Jr.
- Reason: a conflict of interest due to his ties to Polymarket.
- The prediction market platform is being designated by state authorities as a fraudulent betting site.
- The original article was published on Coingape.
#Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionMarket #CryptoNews

$btc $eth

#vlikevn Titanbot

Source: CoinGape

Kalshi's valuation went from $22 billion to $40 billion, and now it's reportedly discussing $65 billion—nearly tripling in six months. I don't think this means “prediction markets are crushing it”; it looks more like annualizing peak-season numbers and pushing them as high as possible to raise another round before public markets scrutinize the company in an IPO.

First, the numbers Bloomberg reported on November 12: at the end of October, Kalshi had just closed a $1 billion round at a $40 billion valuation, led by Sequoia and Wellington. That round was originally seen as its last before going public. A few weeks later, it was discussing a $65 billion valuation. Its annualized revenue run rate had just topped $5 billion, gross margin was about 90%, and monthly notional trading volume rose from around $40 billion in August to nearly $100 billion in October.

$65 billion divided by $5 billion is 13 times run rate. Bloomberg previously reported that Polymarket's last round valued it at about $21 billion, with annualized revenue of around $1.8 billion—that's 11 to 12 times. So Kalshi's multiple itself isn't outrageously high. The problem is the denominator.

A run rate takes revenue from a recent period and multiplies it out over a full year. What kind of month was October? The NFL, the MLB playoffs, and then the betting surge ahead of the November 3 midterm elections—all at once. Annualizing a month like that is a bit like valuing a sportsbook based on its revenue during the World Cup. Here's my rough calculation: if the $5 billion figure is based on October multiplied by 12, that's about $420 million in monthly revenue against $100 billion in notional volume, a take rate just over 0.4%. That's my own estimate; Bloomberg didn't specify its methodology. After the election and the playoffs are over, whether notional volume can hold at $100 billion is what this $65 billion round is really betting on.

The second overlooked variable is sports. The bulk of Kalshi's volume comes from sports, and Louisiana just sued it along with more than twenty other platforms in state court. My view is that the real issue is the state's 21.5% online sports tax and licensing—not morality. The federal CFTC shield hasn't yet produced a consistent ruling across the circuit courts. If a few major states manage to rein in sports volume, that 13x won't stay 13x.

One other detail says a lot: they said it was the last round, then opened another one a few weeks later. If private investors are willing to pay a higher price—and you don't have to disclose quarterly results—who wouldn't want to raise one more round? The real test is who shows up to buy on IPO day.

Next, people will probably use this $65 billion valuation as a benchmark for small on-chain prediction market projects. Most of those platforms can't even agree on how to measure revenue, so don't get swept up in the hype.
#预测市场 #Kalshi

【Market Brief】Senators Press White House: Could Kalshi Betting Case Be Pardoned?
Warren and Merkley wrote to White House Counsel Sharf, asking whether he recommended that Trump pardon teleprompter operator Perez. Perez bet on the wording of Trump’s remarks on Kalshi and made $107,500. He has settled with the CFTC, agreeing to turn over his winnings, pay a $65,000 fine, and refrain from trading for three years. The senators also asked the White House to explain the investigation’s findings and respond by November 23. Will regulators tighten restrictions?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#币安广场 #Kalshi #Prediction Markets
(Source: Unchained)
⚠️Risk Disclaimer: The above is shared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please exercise caution.

Kalshi says the dispute is procedural, but the CFTC warns it may take enforcement action.

CryptoPotato reports that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warned Kalshi that it may take enforcement action against the company. Kalshi said the dispute with regulators concerns a procedural issue. However, the report notes that the CFTC’s warning suggests the investigation could soon escalate.

· The two sides characterize the dispute differently: Kalshi describes it as procedural, while the CFTC’s actions point to enforcement.
· The report did not disclose the specific issues involved in the investigation, its timeline, or the possible forms of punishment.

Would you rather see the CFTC’s formal charges first, or the full text of Kalshi’s response?

#Kalshi #CFTC

Kalshi just recorded the two biggest days in its history — while Bitcoin sits quietly waiting for CPI.

Key figures:
• $5.33 billion (Saturday, Nov. 7) and $5.36 billion (Sunday, Nov. 8) — Kalshi’s daily figures, cited by Bitcoin.com (Nov. 10) and Covers (Nov. 9). Both topped the previous record of $5.30 billion (Oct. 24).
• Weekend total: $10.69 billion; Kalshi accounted for 74.5% of the volume across 12 prediction market operators, whose combined total exceeded $14 billion — up 52% from the previous weekend (Covers/Aldrin Research).
• About 75% of that volume came from combos — parlay contracts that combine multiple outcomes (75.6% on Saturday, 74.6% on Sunday).

My take: appetite for betting on outcomes is growing even as crypto markets are sluggish — BTC is still around $74,500 as it waits for CPI tonight at 20:30 WIB. But don’t misread the figures: this is notional volume, the full value of $1 contracts, not the amount of money wagered. And three-quarters of it came from combos, which were challenged in court by a gambling industry association the day before this record, with the association calling combos sports betting.

What I’m watching: the appeals ruling on combos, and whether volume this high holds up on weekdays, not just football weekends.

What do you think: are prediction markets a complement to crypto markets, or a competitor siphoning off attention and money?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Kalshi #PrediksiPasar $BTC

🚨 U.S. REGULATOR vs. COURTS: Prediction Markets Face a Legal Showdown!

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a major demand that could reshape the prediction markets industry.

🔹 CFTC says regulated exchanges cannot block customers state-by-state.
🔹 Platforms like Kalshi face existing court orders requiring geographic restrictions.
🔹 Companies now face a 30-day deadline to comply or explain.

⚖️ One major question remains: How will prediction markets navigate conflicting regulatory demands and court orders?

Could this become a turning point for the U.S. prediction market industry?

💬 What's your take?

#CryptoNews #Kalshi #CFTC #PredictionMarkets #usregulation

Kalshi co-founder Luana announced the stealth launch of single-stock perpetuals (SSPs): over $300 million traded on opening morning. An employee added that there are 58 trading pairs—and they picked the worst stock-market opening since the pandemic.

Big crypto accounts immediately echoed, “Finance for the Bitcoin era is here.” Wake up. This isn’t bullish for BTC; it’s prediction markets bringing perpetuals to US stocks to rake in fees. No expiry, can go long or short, reportedly up to about 5x leverage—whoever gets liquidated adds to the platform’s volume.

Regulated doesn’t mean you can’t get blown up. Reports also say the court challenge is still ongoing. Retail traders have switched to a table with a license, but the house is still the one collecting fees. $300 million on opening day sounds impressive, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared with the US equity derivatives market. Don’t mistake first-day volume for fundamentals.

The next thing to watch is whether Coinbase and Kraken follow suit. Then we can talk about who’s eating the retail traders.
#Kalshi #Perpetuals

Kalshi blocked from sports contracts. California tribal lands.

- Federal court grants preliminary injunction.
- Kalshi barred from offering sports contracts.
- Two California tribes' lands.
#BinanceSquare #CryptoNews #Kalshi

$btc $eth

#vlikevn #Titanbot

Source: The Block

Kalshi’s stock perpetual contracts launched in the U.S., with users putting in $300 million within hours.

The contracts cover dozens of assets, including Palantir, Meta, and SpaceX, and are regulated by both the CFTC and SEC. They launched just two days after Chairman Michael Selig said that “stock perpetual contracts can be traded domestically.”

· The $300 million refers to the amount users put in, according to a report by Unchained—not platform revenue or trading volume.
· The contracts are listed under two regulators, suggesting the compliance structure does not follow a single-market path.

Which asset’s open interest would you check first?

#Kalshi

Kalshi has been hit with another ban: Two California tribes secured a preliminary injunction in federal court, restricting it from offering sports-related event contracts on tribal lands.

On Wednesday, Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley issued what lawyers called “the first preliminary injunction against Kalshi brought by tribes anywhere in the nation.” The tribes must provide boundary maps by November 13, and Kalshi must report on its compliance within 21 days.

Previously, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals partially overturned the original ruling in September, finding that the tribes were likely to prevail and noting that the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction” might not cover these types of contracts. On the same day, the Arkansas attorney general also sued Kalshi, adding to the regulatory pressure.

#Kalshi #预测市场 #Regulation

Kalshi opens perpetual contracts on individual stocks, with estimated leverage on AAPL and AMZN contracts nearing 5x.

The Defiant reports that the estimated leverage on the two contracts is close to 5x. The report also notes that a legal challenge is threatening the regulatory basis for this type of perpetual stock contract. In other words, the products are live, but their compliance footing remains under scrutiny.

· 5x is the estimated leverage cited in the report, not a fixed multiple specified in the contract terms
· The report points to the regulatory basis for perpetual stock contracts as a category, not any individual stock

If you’re considering trading perpetual contracts on individual stocks, would you look at the leverage terms first or wait for the legal outcome?

#Kalshi

Arkansas has become the seventh state to sue Kalshi — and this lawsuit goes straight to the heart of the prediction market business model.

The facts: Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin sued KalshiEX LLC and Kalshi Inc. on Nov. 4, 2026, alleging that the platform operated unlicensed sports gambling in the state, was open to users aged 18 and older, and violated the Arkansas Deceptive Trade Practices Act. The 57-page lawsuit seeks restitution, civil penalties, back taxes, and a court order. The case is listed in the Circuit Court of Independence County under case number 32CV-26-717. Kalshi has argued that its contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the CFTC, not gambling. There has been no court ruling on Arkansas’s allegations.

My take: this is no longer a lawsuit from just one state — it’s a pattern. Utah has filed 14 criminal charges against Kalshi and its founders, and now seven states have taken action. The real fight is over jurisdiction: states see an online bookmaker, while the CFTC sees a federal futures exchange. Until the Supreme Court or Congress answers that question, every new lawsuit adds legal risk for the entire prediction market sector — including crypto contracts traded on similar platforms. BTC itself was steady around $80,300 as the news circulated, so the market hasn’t priced this in as a shock — but the regulatory headwinds are clear.

What I’m watching next: Kalshi’s response to this lawsuit, the CFTC’s Nov. 6 response deadline in a separate case involving stock perps, and whether other states file similar lawsuits.

What do you think: are event contracts on Kalshi financial products or gambling — and who should regulate them?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Kalshi #PredictionMarket #Regulasi

Arkansas sues Kalshi, potentially intensifying compliance pressure on prediction markets

The Arkansas Attorney General’s Office has formally filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, seeking the return of what it calls illegal gambling proceeds. This is not an isolated incident, but the latest sign of ongoing pressure from state regulators over the compliance of online prediction market business models. As such lawsuits become more frequent, regulatory uncertainty facing the industry is rising significantly.

According to Decrypt, Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin said in a statement that betting on whether the “Arkansas Razorbacks will win” constitutes gambling, and explicitly demanded that Kalshi pay restitution. The lawsuit marks Arkansas’s formal entry into the regulatory crackdown on prediction markets, echoing actions previously taken by other states.

Prediction markets have long occupied a gray area between traditional financial regulation and gambling laws. Although no clear, uniform legislation has yet been enacted at the federal level, each state has its own definition of gambling and enforcement authority. This fragmented regulatory environment drives up compliance costs for platforms, and court rulings often depend heavily on how individual judges interpret local laws. Arkansas’s lawsuit is a classic example of this dilemma.

In terms of market impact, signals of tighter regulation directly threaten the prediction market business model. Increased compliance pressure could restrict platform operations and reduce liquidity, in turn affecting the valuation outlook for related assets such as POLY and UMAMI. If more states follow Arkansas’s lead and file lawsuits, the industry as a whole will face greater compliance challenges and could even see a contraction in market liquidity.

However, it is worth noting that ambiguity in state gambling laws also makes the outcomes of these cases uncertain. Different judges may interpret the same legal provision differently, giving platforms some room to defend themselves. The risk of policy reversals also remains, and future federal legislation could change the current regulatory landscape.

What to watch next is whether other states pursue similar lawsuits, as well as Kalshi’s legal strategy and the eventual rulings. These developments will directly affect the compliance outlook for the prediction market industry and the market performance of related assets.

#PredictionMarkets #Regulation #Kalshi

The above is a summary of information and personal analysis, and does not constitute investment advice.
I will continue to provide updates as further policy details become clear.

Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin went straight to suing Kalshi, and prediction markets in Texas are now officially dead. “Isn’t betting on whether the Wildcats win or lose just gambling?” That’s a fair point—the regulatory heat is only getting stronger.

#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets

Prediction markets have another state on their case: Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin has sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering real-money contracts on sports and entertainment outcomes in the state without a license.

The complaint was filed in Independence County Circuit Court and names KalshiEX LLC / Kalshi Inc. It alleges violations of the Arkansas Deceptive Trade Practices Act and seeks restitution, fines, taxes, and injunctive relief. In an official statement, Griffin was blunt: betting on whether a team wins or loses is subject to state regulation, and the platform bypassed the state’s licensing, oversight, and tax requirements. It also allowed 18-year-olds to participate in sports and entertainment contracts. The complaint even calls Kalshi a “pocket-sized bookie.”

Kalshi’s consistent position is that sports contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the CFTC. The federal government and states are at odds: Utah filed criminal charges last week, while Arizona, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, and others have also sued or restricted access. The CFTC has in turn sued Utah, arguing that “only Washington can regulate.” Arkansas is now another state joining the civil suits.

The state-level crackdown is intensifying, and the compliance boundaries for prediction markets are getting tighter. #预测市场 #Kalshi #CryptoRegulation