$SKHYNIX 15 minutes RSI surged to 93.1. Extremely overbought. I've seen this kind of setup too many times.
It fell all the way from above 1900 to 1129. That's nearly a 40% drop. Now it has rebounded to around 1202.
In terms of candlestick patterns, the 4-hour chart has printed 4 consecutive bullish candles, pulling up from 1147. But momentum is weakening, and the last candle has a clear upper wick. The daily chart is still in a bearish alignment, with all moving averages pressing overhead.
Indicator status:
The 4-hour MACD has formed a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning positive, showing short-term momentum. But the daily MACD is still deep underwater, at the -150 level. This is not a trend reversal; it is an oversold rebound.
The 4-hour EMA9 is at 1176, and EMA21 is at 1198. Price has just moved above them. But EMA50 is at 1250, which is a real resistance level. On the daily chart, EMA9 is at 1274 and EMA21 is at 1420. The distance is still far.
15-minute RSI at 93.1 — what does that mean? It means short-term buying power has already been exhausted. Push higher and there will be no one left to take it.
Funding side: the funding rate is 0.00059328, a mildly positive rate. It is not extreme, but it shows longs are adding positions. At this level, adding longs is likely chasing.
Recent volume on the last 3 four-hour candles increased by 67.8%, showing short-term funds entering to buy the dip. But volume is still not large enough, which means the main force has not stepped in.
Support and resistance:
Upper resistance: 1205 (24h high), 1250 (4h EMA50), 1274 (daily EMA9)
Lower support: 1176 (4h EMA9), 1147 (recent low), 1129 (swing low)
My view: the daily bearish trend has not changed, and the 15-minute RSI 93.1 overbought condition is a signal that the short-term rebound may be topping out. Most likely it will retest around 1176.
Nini's plan:
Current price: 1202
Bias: slightly bearish
Execution condition: enter when the 15-minute chart shows signs of stalling (doji, upper wick)
Entry range: 1200-1210
Stop loss: 1225
Targets: 1176 / 1147 / 1129
A rebound is not a reversal. Don't be fooled by bullish candles.
#SKHYNIX #SKHYNIXUSDT #semiconductors