Everyone, I want to open a large short position on
$MAVIA .
Take profit: 0.0253
Stop loss: 0.02806
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I shorting at this level?
The level is the entire reason for this trade. The latest 15-minute candle closed at 0.02707. The 20-day range is 0.02259 to 0.02798, and the current price is sitting at the 83.1st percentile.
There’s only 3.36% room left to the top of the range, versus 6.54% down to 0.0253. I’ll take those odds.
It’s already up 6.87% over the past 7 days, and sentiment is running ahead of the trading structure.
Both the take-profit and stop-loss for this trade are within the range of one day’s average volatility. That’s a hard-and-fast rule in my system that I never change.
The daily ATR14 is about 7.60%. The take profit at -6.54% and stop loss at +3.66% are both within that range.
There’s also a 0.5% buffer on the stop-loss side to keep a wick from a 6-hour extreme from taking me out.
Honestly, I learned that lesson the hard way—I’ve been stopped out twice when I didn’t add that buffer.
The risk-reward ratio for this trade is about 1.79. Not great, but the entry level is high enough.
The broader market isn’t giving the bulls a tailwind right now either. During the same period,
$BTC is up only 0.407%, while
$ETH is up 0.696%.
There are only so many seats at the table, and they’re already full. Anyone who shows up late has to stand.
It’s like the last discounted item at the convenience store downstairs: the more people rush for it, the more the price gives way.
My view of this level is simple: all the chips on the table are crowded into the bulls’ hands, and there’s no additional buying support overhead. I’d rather be on the bears’ side.
What do you think?
#MAVIA #QNT #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.