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$QQQ “Can you find historical cases” ≠ “The future will definitely follow history”

Once the historical database is large enough, you can almost always find a case that looks similar.

That’s the easiest place to be deceived in historical research.

For example, if the market is falling today, you can say it looks like 1973; or like 1987; or like 2000; or like 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022.

$BTC
In an August 28 Bitcoin Asia fireside discussion, CZ suggested that national crypto reserves should be BTC at over 50% and ETH at 10%-20%. However, on X this news was viewed 4,601 times and barely stirred up any ripples in the secondary market. Prices didn’t move in line with the consensus, which suggests that the current on-exchange buying crowd doesn’t really take the macro narrative seriously—so even the bulls don’t have the confidence to follow along.

$SOL
This kind of purely-interactive post on-chain that doesn’t have any specific wallet activity or K-line technical levels—there’s just no way to stir up so much as a ripple in the charts. How the SOL price moves is still how it moves; it’s purely a matter of watching the market’s mood.

If this hype could be converted into some actual on-chain buying pressure, that would be fine, but unfortunately all it amounts to is watching the spectacle—there’s nothing else. This time I’ll just treat it as entertainment and not go doing random things.

$BTC isn't it? I didn't click number 66, so why did it show 66 years old?

$BTC
An unknown wallet just sent 927 BTC into Coinbase—an order that slammed the order book. On X, the view count immediately shot up to nearly 40,000.

At this price, retail investors were already watching to see whether the market could be hard-carried through. But this roughly $70+ million in capital, once dumped onto the exchange, gave the longs a sudden, brutal sucker punch.

We didn’t see any substantial coordination between funding rates and spot follow-through. This sell pressure is purely short-term and driven by stubborn resistance within the market.

$ETH
Robinhood Chain launched 70 days ago, and in silence it went on to pocket 17,171 ETH—its return rate is truly making the neighboring L2s go quiet.

They talk every day about ecosystem prosperity, but in the end, real money in black and white all got sent to pay the platform’s fees.

$BTC
BTC, according to available reports, a white-hat hacker may have transferred 3,400 bitcoins back to the Liquid Network, and another 598.5 coins were put into a new wallet.

The news dropped, but the price action showed not even a ripple. These people spend every day shouting “bearish news to be acted on,” but when it comes time, they can’t even bother to give you a decent rebound.

I’ve figured it out now: in this kind of market, as long as you don’t see real, substantial volume backing it up, holding a short position is stronger than anything else.

$SOL
Bithumb directly listed Useless’s KRW trading pair at 2:00 PM local time on September 8.

This coin was still launched last May through LetsBONKfun.

Korean retail investors’ blind enthusiasm for this low-quality coin (“meme coin”) completely didn’t manage to break the SOL order book— the pool’s “hot” activity of over two thousand is just sitting on-chain like it’s for show. Meanwhile, big-market funds haven’t diverted even a bit of attention to this.

$ETH
Retail investors are still watching ETH, trying to find the bottom from this macro catalyst. But actually, on-chain data has already stripped things bare.

I don’t think this group of funds ever planned to catch the bag. If this batch of coins gets dumped and the next 4-hour candle’s volume and momentum swallow up this entire rebound, then the chart will be completely unreadable.

If this is truly a bullish move, they wouldn’t have to hold their breath—if we get pressed down before they can catch their breath, I can’t be bothered to fight it to the death. I’d just admit defeat and exit.

$BTC
BTC, retail investors every day think the big cake is going too high and will need to pull back. The result is that on-chain, it refuses to get taken off the shelf—spot demand has been dropping to negative.

The retail traders who keep cursing the whales for pumping are actually the ones continuously selling. This rally has nothing to do with them buying.

CryptoQuant shows that behind these 15,182 views, it’s retail investors who were scared by the last round of declines. As the price rises, they’re using the moment to cut losses and escape.

I’m still bullish and watching the bulls keep getting forced to liquidate. As long as spot demand doesn’t turn positive, I don’t believe this market can easily crash down.

$ETH
Brother Sunge once again used a continuous combo on Lido to withdraw profits—starting from the end of August to now, he squeezed out 10,000 ETH, and today he just happened to see another dump of 5,000 coins.

The routes those big players keep moving money around on-chain have never really stopped, and there are still 238,000 stETH sitting untouched in their wallets.

When the news came out, there wasn’t even a ripple in the market—this bullish mood is pretty awkward too. If the incoming funds to take the bag still don’t keep up, then at this level it really might get slapped twice.

$BTC
The entanglement between BTC and the Nasdaq is completely broken. The 90-day correlation has dropped directly to 0.30—an annual low point. But the linkage with gold has surged to 0.56, reaching the highest historical level since statistics began in 2017. This suggests that the social hype in the crypto world can only indicate that news spreads quickly; it cannot prove that capital has already moved in. While U.S. tech stocks are hopping together, all the money has instead crowded into the same safe-haven track as gold. If later gold pulls back and BTC doesn’t follow down, or if the correlation indicator turns back downward again, then I would admit this logic has failed.

$SOL
SOL, retail traders always feel that the Meme cool-down period means the broader market is going to turn cold. But once GMGN audited it, the single-day core trading volume went straight up to $952 million.

Just the PONS tokens running on Robinhood—over the span of only a few hours since the opening—hardly ate up nearly $630 million, taking an absolute bulk of the volume.

Even though Solana’s day-over-day figure shrank by 25.1% to $156 million, and its share is still stuck at 16.4%, the market clearly isn’t as cold as people imagine.

When the frenzy is just starting to cool down, it’s often a bunch of people blindly panic-selling. When you do the math, the main players never really intended to let go

$ETH
Litebit mining pool founder Jiang Zhuoer said that earlier, when BTC was around $82,050, he sold out his entire position and bought back at $79,480. He currently has fully restored his ETH spot holdings.

There’s nothing to “spin” here: the project team has simply exchanged chips for cash. Whether selling pressure can continue to break through depends on the actual level of absorption.

$BTC
Hyperunit whale associated with Garrett Jin just liquidated a $106.18 million BTC long position in full, then immediately added to a ZEC short, now down more than $20 million.

This market doesn’t give longs any face at all—when the news came out, BTC didn’t move up at all. Instead, it feels like it’s making room for the main players to settle.

With the funds forced into this situation, the longs probably aren’t done yet—they might be about to take a big blindside hit too

$ETH
Brother Sun again unstaked 5000 ETH from Lido. Since August 26, he has already redeemed 10,000 coins. This move is indeed a bit too frequent. In the batch he sent over, assets worth $12.3 million went directly into Poloniex. Right now, on-chain addresses still hold 238,000 stETH. At this scale, the big player is consecutively draining liquidity at this point, yet the order book hasn’t even shown a one-sided collapse. Retail traders are still there every day shouting that it’s going back up. Do they really think the liquidity in the pool is an infinite money-printing machine?

$ETH
ETH, in the past 3 hours, some big player directly threw out 803 of them (about $1.97 million), and at an average price of $0.71, aggressively scooped up 2.75 million unknown tokens.

You guys keep shouting in the group chats every day that Ethereum has bottomed and the big players are accumulating, but on-chain fund flows are directly slapping that narrative in the face.

Nearly two million dollars in spot assets would rather be pulled out to chase high-risk dog coins than stay on the main chain for even one extra day.

Stop blindly pumping faith into it. Big money is looking for liquidity outlets outside the main chain.

Unless one day these million-dollar-scale asset swaps stop, or this big player takes a loss and switches the money back, I’ll only start looking at this market more favorably then. For now, whoever wants to chase it can chase it.

$ETH
This weekend’s ETH market is interesting in terms of funding rates and open interest. Crypto Tony was viewed 8850 times on X.

This round, bullish sentiment is a bit too unanimous, and the open interest still hasn’t been fully cleared out. If the main players really decide to push down with the trend and jab the price lower, all those leveraged traders chasing the rally will blow up on the spot.